He actually said that if we end up with fewer than 20,000 deaths we will have “done very well”.
Anyway, that aside, if the numbers do keep doubling every 3/4 days for the next 20 days then we will be totally screwed. Not only would we be well above 20,000 deaths by that point in time, but we would also still have to endure a similar number on the down slope.
Not saying that will happen by the way, just pointing out that we need to see the rate of growth slowing before we can have any real optimism.
But, and trying for optimism, if he’s right......
It’s still lower than Italy at the same stage. Let’s hope it stays that way because Italy have just announced 919 deaths in the last 24hrs
I don't see how 'positive tests' is really that relevant, it's just dependent on the total number of tests performed.
The death rate is all that matters !
That sounds right. Hopefully at somene point that number turns. Once you get to those numbers, people who would live today will die because we won't have enough ventilators. The NHS guy wasn't dismissing 20,000 deaths as being a good number (in that it could be wise).
I was using the timeline that was getting used last week. It had us 14 days behind Italy but now the media have moved the start time and have us 18 days behind Italy.It doesn't appear that that is an entirely correct interpretation
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
I was using the timeline that was getting used last week. It had us 14 days behind Italy but now the media have moved the start time and have us 18 days behind Italy.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....y-two-weeks-Italy-coronavirus-death-toll.html
I didn’t look into in that much detailI’ve been tracking the numbers from various countries and comparing their trends to ours. Not saying I’m a professor of epidemiology or anything, but I can forecast trends and know my way round a spreadsheet.
A few things are obvious, even from a bit of semi-amateur modelling:
1. Regardless of debates over testing criteria, we are almost exactly following France’s trajectory for infections, but around four days behind.
2. We have been tracking Italy’s trajectory for deaths for over a week and continue to do so. Our numbers look slightly smaller than theirs, but not significantly, and we are around 14 days behind them.
3. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that either the much reported peak in 7 days or a total deaths of around 5,000 might be correct. The 3-day averages for both infections and deaths are still increasing, which would suggest rising deaths for a minimum of another 14 days.
1228 today.I didn’t look into in that much detailOur total deaths was 1019 and 14 days earlier Italy’s was 1266
I didn’t look into in that much detailOur total deaths was 1019 and 14 days earlier Italy’s was 1266
March 28th the UK had recorded 1019 deaths
March 14th Italy had recorded 1441 deaths.