Millbrook
Well-known member
Very sorry to hear that.
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
I’ve never met him, but it’ll be rife amongst them all, especially the hardcore.
I wish I could have given you his story of rappelling his fat **** down the side of a tall energy production related building as a an electrical storm hit. Funny as feck. But as Ivan Ivanski might be reading, I'll paraphrase as best I can. As commander of the assault unit he not only had to demonstrate that he could do what he was asking them to do, but also he had to do it last as lightning started hitting nearby structures. He doesn't much like rappelling, but did this one in "barely controlled freefall" while cacking his pants. Med me laff!
Anyway, this from the horses mouth ... from yesterday.
"Updates
While we are waiting for the next invasion of Russia by the Free Russia Legion we can briefly touch on the progress of Ukraine.
As I mentioned before they are slowly and meticulously picking apart the Russian zero line and advancing on the first line of the Surovikin Line(s).
There has been slow and steady progress north of Bakhmut, at Avdivka, Neskuchne (The Bulge) and near the former Kakhovka dam in Zhaporizhzhia.
Nothing spectacular as such, just a slow trudge.
No news has come out of the Vuhledar A20 push, Ukraine is just sitting there doing artillery work. I will come back to what I think about this soon.
There are also no news on the raid on the second raid over at Nova Kakhovka.
Offensive
We are obviously still waiting for a big push, but I do not think that will happen prior to Ukraine having made contact with the Surovikin line at several locations.
This would draw out the Russian reserves to those places, and set the stage for a more decisive battle.
As I mentioned the bulk of the defences are towards Melitopol, so for that reason I do not think this is the way for the main push.
It would just be to costly.
But, from Neskuchne all the way to Vuhledar there is just one main defencive line in the Surovikin line, and after that just a dozen or so fortified villages that are not connected.
As such it is much easier to go through, and it would cut off a larger chunk of land, and neatly divide the Russian army in two halves that can then be dealt with separately.
This slow grinding towards the Surovikin Line will take at least another month.
As ****** pointed out, Ukraine likes to do the unexpected, and he pointed towards Luhansk as a target for the same 1-2-1 punch that Ukraine did last summer with Kherson-Kharkiv/Luhansk-Kherson.
I am though not convinced that it will be Luhansk since that would increase the length of the frontline.
It is though by far the least well reinforced area that Russia currently holds, so it would be an easy picking for that reason.
I am instead looking at Donetsk City.
We see pushes in Avdivka happening all the time, and then we have the army in waiting literally idling at the start of the A20 near Vuhledar.
The road does lead to Mariupol, but it is also a backdoor to encircling Donetsk City.
The city itself is a hard nut to crack and would lead to large civilian casualties, but the area around the city is not well defended with the troops having been pulled away to reinforce Bakhmut.
I do think that the Southern frontline will be the Kherson of yesteryear.
Ukraine will continue to slowly pick it apart without any massive attacks for at least a month.
Instead they will attack massiverly to take another significant area that would rock Russia politically.
And encircling and pushing Donetsk into surrendering does fit the bill for being the Kharkiv offensive surprise.
This is though a guesstimate based on currently available info, and I may change my opinion.
Ukraine is after all very good at pulling atomic fruitbats out of their hats.
Missiles
A lot was made of Russia bringing in 30 KH52 helicopters into Berdiansk to reinforce their frontlines.
Pundits oozed doom and gloom, and I snickered at them.
First of all, Ukraine has the best air defence on the planet, and secondly Berdiansk is within strike range of a lot of Ukrainian new missiles.
Now those very expensive helicopters are burning hulks.
Some got shot down, and the rest was taken out by a missile barrage.
Same thing happened to all sorts of targets over the Southern and of Donetsk, Zhaporizhzhia, Kherson, and the approaches to Crimea.
A lot of targets, all of them beyong GMLRS range.
And many of them hit with multiple missiles.
The 150 Storm Shadows, and about the same number PrSM missiles was just a stopgap, or intended for use deep in Crimea and against the Kersh Bridge.
The stop gap part was to plug a hole in capacity left by the delay in the production of sufficient numbers of 150km range GLSDBs that was always intended as the volume missile system for Ukraine.
The West had a problem.
There are not enough cruise missiles available for Ukraines needs, nor are there enough ATACMs.
There's enough to supply Ukraine with high precission/high value missiles for strategic use, but not enough for tactic use in a long range artillery capacity.
Ukraine needed something cheap and cheerful for that, and in huge numbers.
And 150km is quite enough since that would be beyond the Russian logistics range and would cover everything down to northern Crimea.
In the last couple of days Ukraine tested out a couple of GLSDBs to get to know them, but last day and night they started to pour them all over the Russian deep rear.
Ammunition stockpiles, Brigade headquarters, Bridges, troop concentrations, barracks, fuel depots, air fields, helicopters... the list just goes on and on and on...
Roughly 80 different targets was hit with up towards 10 missiles.
In other words, in 24 hours Ukraine used more missiles than all the Storm Shadows and PrSMs they have...
Expect those that are remaining to be held back for deep targets in Southern Crimea and the bridge.
The Saviour missile has entered the fray, and there will be 40 000 of them in the first production run.
The Dildo of Consequence just arrived highly unlubed, and their will be a lot of Russian **** ouchie.
Que Sad Shoigu Noises."
He added today that a mate from BAE called to say that Ukraine has ordered 1000 CV9os with full bells and whistles. Seems they like our man's usual chariot."
Anyway, this from the horses mouth ... from yesterday.
"Updates
While we are waiting for the next invasion of Russia by the Free Russia Legion we can briefly touch on the progress of Ukraine.
As I mentioned before they are slowly and meticulously picking apart the Russian zero line and advancing on the first line of the Surovikin Line(s).
There has been slow and steady progress north of Bakhmut, at Avdivka, Neskuchne (The Bulge) and near the former Kakhovka dam in Zhaporizhzhia.
Nothing spectacular as such, just a slow trudge.
No news has come out of the Vuhledar A20 push, Ukraine is just sitting there doing artillery work. I will come back to what I think about this soon.
There are also no news on the raid on the second raid over at Nova Kakhovka.
Offensive
We are obviously still waiting for a big push, but I do not think that will happen prior to Ukraine having made contact with the Surovikin line at several locations.
This would draw out the Russian reserves to those places, and set the stage for a more decisive battle.
As I mentioned the bulk of the defences are towards Melitopol, so for that reason I do not think this is the way for the main push.
It would just be to costly.
But, from Neskuchne all the way to Vuhledar there is just one main defencive line in the Surovikin line, and after that just a dozen or so fortified villages that are not connected.
As such it is much easier to go through, and it would cut off a larger chunk of land, and neatly divide the Russian army in two halves that can then be dealt with separately.
This slow grinding towards the Surovikin Line will take at least another month.
As ****** pointed out, Ukraine likes to do the unexpected, and he pointed towards Luhansk as a target for the same 1-2-1 punch that Ukraine did last summer with Kherson-Kharkiv/Luhansk-Kherson.
I am though not convinced that it will be Luhansk since that would increase the length of the frontline.
It is though by far the least well reinforced area that Russia currently holds, so it would be an easy picking for that reason.
I am instead looking at Donetsk City.
We see pushes in Avdivka happening all the time, and then we have the army in waiting literally idling at the start of the A20 near Vuhledar.
The road does lead to Mariupol, but it is also a backdoor to encircling Donetsk City.
The city itself is a hard nut to crack and would lead to large civilian casualties, but the area around the city is not well defended with the troops having been pulled away to reinforce Bakhmut.
I do think that the Southern frontline will be the Kherson of yesteryear.
Ukraine will continue to slowly pick it apart without any massive attacks for at least a month.
Instead they will attack massiverly to take another significant area that would rock Russia politically.
And encircling and pushing Donetsk into surrendering does fit the bill for being the Kharkiv offensive surprise.
This is though a guesstimate based on currently available info, and I may change my opinion.
Ukraine is after all very good at pulling atomic fruitbats out of their hats.
Missiles
A lot was made of Russia bringing in 30 KH52 helicopters into Berdiansk to reinforce their frontlines.
Pundits oozed doom and gloom, and I snickered at them.
First of all, Ukraine has the best air defence on the planet, and secondly Berdiansk is within strike range of a lot of Ukrainian new missiles.
Now those very expensive helicopters are burning hulks.
Some got shot down, and the rest was taken out by a missile barrage.
Same thing happened to all sorts of targets over the Southern and of Donetsk, Zhaporizhzhia, Kherson, and the approaches to Crimea.
A lot of targets, all of them beyong GMLRS range.
And many of them hit with multiple missiles.
The 150 Storm Shadows, and about the same number PrSM missiles was just a stopgap, or intended for use deep in Crimea and against the Kersh Bridge.
The stop gap part was to plug a hole in capacity left by the delay in the production of sufficient numbers of 150km range GLSDBs that was always intended as the volume missile system for Ukraine.
The West had a problem.
There are not enough cruise missiles available for Ukraines needs, nor are there enough ATACMs.
There's enough to supply Ukraine with high precission/high value missiles for strategic use, but not enough for tactic use in a long range artillery capacity.
Ukraine needed something cheap and cheerful for that, and in huge numbers.
And 150km is quite enough since that would be beyond the Russian logistics range and would cover everything down to northern Crimea.
In the last couple of days Ukraine tested out a couple of GLSDBs to get to know them, but last day and night they started to pour them all over the Russian deep rear.
Ammunition stockpiles, Brigade headquarters, Bridges, troop concentrations, barracks, fuel depots, air fields, helicopters... the list just goes on and on and on...
Roughly 80 different targets was hit with up towards 10 missiles.
In other words, in 24 hours Ukraine used more missiles than all the Storm Shadows and PrSMs they have...
Expect those that are remaining to be held back for deep targets in Southern Crimea and the bridge.
The Saviour missile has entered the fray, and there will be 40 000 of them in the first production run.
The Dildo of Consequence just arrived highly unlubed, and their will be a lot of Russian **** ouchie.
Que Sad Shoigu Noises."
He added today that a mate from BAE called to say that Ukraine has ordered 1000 CV9os with full bells and whistles. Seems they like our man's usual chariot."
Decent_Left
Well-known member
This pleases me 
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Caution. Contains both factual reporting and tea leaf reading. It is a long one.
"Yesterday we learned something surprising, to say the least.
To a layman it would probably look insignificant and be overlooked, but to a professional it sent alarm bells off, and made even General Budanov into a happy smile (see above for this unheard of event).
So what was this earth-shattering small news?
Let me set things back more than a week.
Russia blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant with the express purpose of denying Ukraine the ability to cross the Dnipro and take South Kherson this way.
In turn that freed up a lot of Russian units that had been made redundant.
We assumed that these was going to Zhaporizhzhia and southwestern Donetsk to function as tactical reserves to counter the Ukrainian offensive.
Here I need to do a side-track and explain the 3 categories of reserves.
Strategic Reserves are available troops far behind the front lines, typically in your own country.
These can then be used to open up new fronts, etcetera.
In a way, these are your only available truly free troops to use as you see fit without interference from the enemy.
Russia has no such reserve.
Tactical reserve, those are troops available in the rear and can be used in front pushes and to reinforce fronts. Russia is almost out these, I will return to it below.
Operational reserves are units that are meant to be rotated in as you rotate a unit out, or as a "fire-fighting" unit thrown against an enemy offensive, or for rapid counter-offensives.
Russia typically have little of these remaining, and have throughout the war used troops much harder than Ukraine, or any western nation, would ever do.
Back to the news.
Russia moved out those newly formed tactical units from Kherson back to Russia near the border, where they got supplied with more mobiks (mostly prisoners), and then they got packed up and sent to the front.
Problem is that Russia did not send them to the Southern front as expected.
Instead they got sent straight for Bakhmut.
Two Options
Either Russian high command are unfathomable idiots (always an option with them), or they are running a completely different battle plan than was expected.
In Bakhmut Russia has suffered high casualty rate as well equiped Ukrainians are assaulting badly provisioned and untrained Russian forces.
This is evidenced by the slow but steady push that Ukraine is able to perform in incrimental stages towards encircling Bakhmut.
As things stood, Russia had either to surrender Bakhmut in the end, or reinforce.
Surrendering would in time lead to the loss of Soledar, etcetera.
Southern Front
Here Russia is currently using everything it have available, every artillery piece, every tank, every BMP, every soldier.
The tactical reserves are now fully committed, the operational reserves are all in the trenches.
Ukraine is steadily grinding them down through precission fire on the front, and on all other fortifications, logistics lines, depots, command centers etcetera.
This grinding is being done all the way back to the Azov Sea and Crimea.
Let me reiterate, Russia has committed everything, and each day it is being whittled away, and there is no new forces or equipment being allocated to this frontline.
This is not a healthy position to be in for Russia.
Ukraine will continue to meticulously pick apart the Russian front in as safe a manner as possible, while continuing to destroy the Russian rear.
Ukraine will probably spend weeks doing this to the Russians until one or more parts of the Russian frontline collapses, and then the entire thing will collapse rapidly.
Remember that during operation Overlord the allied forces used 6 weeks to ever so slightly expand the tiny bridgehead and reinforce, and then all of France collapsed in 2 weeks.
This was made possible by the constant grinding of the allied forces on the German positions and defence lines.
Expect something similar here.
Idiot Option
Russia thinks that it can win some sort of enormous advantage by holding Bakhmut, and seriously believe that Ukraine also sees Bakhmut as The Star of the Universe.
If this is true Ukraine will just slowly grind up these reinforcements over the course of a few months, and then start to push ahead again, or allocate just a tad more artillery and troops to Bakhmut, and continue regardless the forward momentum.
The effect would still be that the Southern front will collapse in the near future.
Let us not forget that they have emptied out Donetsk City defenses, and that Luhansk is pretty empty too.
Russia is actually trying a bit of an offensive in Luhansk on their own, but it does not seem to gain any momentum.
Battle Plan Option
The higher ups have ordered the Russian MOD to hold Donbas, and to if needs be abandon at least Kherson and Zhaporizhzhia (maybe even Crimea) to be able to do so.
The Russian MOD is using Zhaporizhzhia as a way to bleed the Ukrainian forces by a methodical defencive withdrawal in carefully planned stages, sort of like what Ukraine did in Bakhmut, but on a far larger scale.
I, and 90 percent of all allied general staff's believe this is what is happening. And to be frank, even if the idiot option is true, the result will be exactly the same.
The available tactical reserve for the Southern front is gone.
I will assume that there is at least one Russian general who is not entirely head first in a bottle and/or a pile of cocaine, and has realised that Russia can't hold on to all of it, and decided correctly that Russia will not be able to hold back the Ukrainians here in the long run when the Kersh Bridge is gone.
Instead that hypothetical Russian general has decided that it might have at least a small chance to hold Donbas due to the shorter and simpler logistical routes.
Well, at least hold on to Donbas into 2024, or something like that.
Prophetical Part
I have now looked deep into the tea leaves and summoned spirits most unholy.
If we use Operation Overlord as a reference (there are other large battles with similar time frames) we can get a sort of timeline going.
Obviously the timeline can be both shorter, and longer, but it is a good and well known reference frame.
Ukraine started the offensive 2 weeks ago with artillery shaping, and the operative phase about 1.5 weeks ago.
This is a fact.
This means that we would be having about 4 more weeks of grinding and bombarding of the rear before Ukraine shift gear and start to move forward into the holes created.
At this point the Russians would either collapse, or withdraw entirely from the area in a "goodwill gesture".
This would give first week of August as the point where Ukraine has liberated Zhaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Obviously it is silly to make that a hard date, but it is probably somewhere in the ballpark.
The unknown here is if Russia would also surrender Crimea due to the Bridge having been blown... let us assume that they do not do this.
Ukraine would then need a minimum of a month to reconstitute, resupply, and rest, prior to starting an autumn offensive against Crimea.
It would though be far shorter in duration than the Zhaporizhzhia liberation due to the Russian logistic nightmare after the Bridge has been dumped into the ocean.
Another option would be that Ukraine just dump the bridge, sink a few ships from their new positions, and leave Crimea to slowly starve to death, die from lack of water, and sucumb to the Cholera epidemic that has started in Crimea after the dam was blown.
If so, then Ukraine will hit Luhansk and Donetsk full force to try to drive Russia out of all of Eastern Ukraine.
There is also obviously the option that Ukraine will take Donetsk City or Luhansk as an interlude to the current offensive.
The Unknowns
Kersh Bridge, it is sort of an unknown when it will be dunked into the ocean.
We believe this is not far away at this point.
Next unknown is if Ukraine will do a 1-2-1 attack again.
If they do the political imagery in Russia would be the deciding factor, I am almost certain that Ukraine would go for Donetsk City if this option will be the one selected.
Civil War in Russia, this is the biggie.
It has sort of started and is simmering along nicely.
Prigozhin did his best to take out the military Kadyrovite leadership by providing targeting data to the Ukrainians.
After this the MOD refused to accept his signed contract to the Russian Army.
We will know what will happen within the next 10 days.
I suspect that beginning of July will be the time that the civil war breaks out, and that it will be the Kadyrovites that will be sent to dig out Wagner from their fortified bases deep in Russia.
Problem is just that Prigozhin has a rather nasty surprise ready for Kadyrov if and when he make the attempt to attack Wagner.
What this surprise is I will leave for now, let me just say that Prigozhin has new friends... or at least frenemies.
As per usual the big unknown who is leading the Russian Shitfest.
Literally millions are spent every day on trying to figure this one out.
I think the answer is that nobody does, everyone are just trying to execute orders that was given a long time ago, some try to apply a bit of brain to their part in it, some don't.
There is a heck of a lot of momentum in a freight train with a broken locomotive that has no breaks...
140 million Russians is a big train to stop, and it will go for months without any true leadership.
But, when it comes to a stop or derails it will go very fast.
My opinion is that all the smaller bosses in Russia is trying to figure out what is happening, consolidate what power they have, and are hoping that Russia can hanker on until the presidential election in 2024.
Fat chance for that I would say..."
"Yesterday we learned something surprising, to say the least.
To a layman it would probably look insignificant and be overlooked, but to a professional it sent alarm bells off, and made even General Budanov into a happy smile (see above for this unheard of event).
So what was this earth-shattering small news?
Let me set things back more than a week.
Russia blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant with the express purpose of denying Ukraine the ability to cross the Dnipro and take South Kherson this way.
In turn that freed up a lot of Russian units that had been made redundant.
We assumed that these was going to Zhaporizhzhia and southwestern Donetsk to function as tactical reserves to counter the Ukrainian offensive.
Here I need to do a side-track and explain the 3 categories of reserves.
Strategic Reserves are available troops far behind the front lines, typically in your own country.
These can then be used to open up new fronts, etcetera.
In a way, these are your only available truly free troops to use as you see fit without interference from the enemy.
Russia has no such reserve.
Tactical reserve, those are troops available in the rear and can be used in front pushes and to reinforce fronts. Russia is almost out these, I will return to it below.
Operational reserves are units that are meant to be rotated in as you rotate a unit out, or as a "fire-fighting" unit thrown against an enemy offensive, or for rapid counter-offensives.
Russia typically have little of these remaining, and have throughout the war used troops much harder than Ukraine, or any western nation, would ever do.
Back to the news.
Russia moved out those newly formed tactical units from Kherson back to Russia near the border, where they got supplied with more mobiks (mostly prisoners), and then they got packed up and sent to the front.
Problem is that Russia did not send them to the Southern front as expected.
Instead they got sent straight for Bakhmut.
Two Options
Either Russian high command are unfathomable idiots (always an option with them), or they are running a completely different battle plan than was expected.
In Bakhmut Russia has suffered high casualty rate as well equiped Ukrainians are assaulting badly provisioned and untrained Russian forces.
This is evidenced by the slow but steady push that Ukraine is able to perform in incrimental stages towards encircling Bakhmut.
As things stood, Russia had either to surrender Bakhmut in the end, or reinforce.
Surrendering would in time lead to the loss of Soledar, etcetera.
Southern Front
Here Russia is currently using everything it have available, every artillery piece, every tank, every BMP, every soldier.
The tactical reserves are now fully committed, the operational reserves are all in the trenches.
Ukraine is steadily grinding them down through precission fire on the front, and on all other fortifications, logistics lines, depots, command centers etcetera.
This grinding is being done all the way back to the Azov Sea and Crimea.
Let me reiterate, Russia has committed everything, and each day it is being whittled away, and there is no new forces or equipment being allocated to this frontline.
This is not a healthy position to be in for Russia.
Ukraine will continue to meticulously pick apart the Russian front in as safe a manner as possible, while continuing to destroy the Russian rear.
Ukraine will probably spend weeks doing this to the Russians until one or more parts of the Russian frontline collapses, and then the entire thing will collapse rapidly.
Remember that during operation Overlord the allied forces used 6 weeks to ever so slightly expand the tiny bridgehead and reinforce, and then all of France collapsed in 2 weeks.
This was made possible by the constant grinding of the allied forces on the German positions and defence lines.
Expect something similar here.
Idiot Option
Russia thinks that it can win some sort of enormous advantage by holding Bakhmut, and seriously believe that Ukraine also sees Bakhmut as The Star of the Universe.
If this is true Ukraine will just slowly grind up these reinforcements over the course of a few months, and then start to push ahead again, or allocate just a tad more artillery and troops to Bakhmut, and continue regardless the forward momentum.
The effect would still be that the Southern front will collapse in the near future.
Let us not forget that they have emptied out Donetsk City defenses, and that Luhansk is pretty empty too.
Russia is actually trying a bit of an offensive in Luhansk on their own, but it does not seem to gain any momentum.
Battle Plan Option
The higher ups have ordered the Russian MOD to hold Donbas, and to if needs be abandon at least Kherson and Zhaporizhzhia (maybe even Crimea) to be able to do so.
The Russian MOD is using Zhaporizhzhia as a way to bleed the Ukrainian forces by a methodical defencive withdrawal in carefully planned stages, sort of like what Ukraine did in Bakhmut, but on a far larger scale.
I, and 90 percent of all allied general staff's believe this is what is happening. And to be frank, even if the idiot option is true, the result will be exactly the same.
The available tactical reserve for the Southern front is gone.
I will assume that there is at least one Russian general who is not entirely head first in a bottle and/or a pile of cocaine, and has realised that Russia can't hold on to all of it, and decided correctly that Russia will not be able to hold back the Ukrainians here in the long run when the Kersh Bridge is gone.
Instead that hypothetical Russian general has decided that it might have at least a small chance to hold Donbas due to the shorter and simpler logistical routes.
Well, at least hold on to Donbas into 2024, or something like that.
Prophetical Part
I have now looked deep into the tea leaves and summoned spirits most unholy.
If we use Operation Overlord as a reference (there are other large battles with similar time frames) we can get a sort of timeline going.
Obviously the timeline can be both shorter, and longer, but it is a good and well known reference frame.
Ukraine started the offensive 2 weeks ago with artillery shaping, and the operative phase about 1.5 weeks ago.
This is a fact.
This means that we would be having about 4 more weeks of grinding and bombarding of the rear before Ukraine shift gear and start to move forward into the holes created.
At this point the Russians would either collapse, or withdraw entirely from the area in a "goodwill gesture".
This would give first week of August as the point where Ukraine has liberated Zhaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Obviously it is silly to make that a hard date, but it is probably somewhere in the ballpark.
The unknown here is if Russia would also surrender Crimea due to the Bridge having been blown... let us assume that they do not do this.
Ukraine would then need a minimum of a month to reconstitute, resupply, and rest, prior to starting an autumn offensive against Crimea.
It would though be far shorter in duration than the Zhaporizhzhia liberation due to the Russian logistic nightmare after the Bridge has been dumped into the ocean.
Another option would be that Ukraine just dump the bridge, sink a few ships from their new positions, and leave Crimea to slowly starve to death, die from lack of water, and sucumb to the Cholera epidemic that has started in Crimea after the dam was blown.
If so, then Ukraine will hit Luhansk and Donetsk full force to try to drive Russia out of all of Eastern Ukraine.
There is also obviously the option that Ukraine will take Donetsk City or Luhansk as an interlude to the current offensive.
The Unknowns
Kersh Bridge, it is sort of an unknown when it will be dunked into the ocean.
We believe this is not far away at this point.
Next unknown is if Ukraine will do a 1-2-1 attack again.
If they do the political imagery in Russia would be the deciding factor, I am almost certain that Ukraine would go for Donetsk City if this option will be the one selected.
Civil War in Russia, this is the biggie.
It has sort of started and is simmering along nicely.
Prigozhin did his best to take out the military Kadyrovite leadership by providing targeting data to the Ukrainians.
After this the MOD refused to accept his signed contract to the Russian Army.
We will know what will happen within the next 10 days.
I suspect that beginning of July will be the time that the civil war breaks out, and that it will be the Kadyrovites that will be sent to dig out Wagner from their fortified bases deep in Russia.
Problem is just that Prigozhin has a rather nasty surprise ready for Kadyrov if and when he make the attempt to attack Wagner.
What this surprise is I will leave for now, let me just say that Prigozhin has new friends... or at least frenemies.
As per usual the big unknown who is leading the Russian Shitfest.
Literally millions are spent every day on trying to figure this one out.
I think the answer is that nobody does, everyone are just trying to execute orders that was given a long time ago, some try to apply a bit of brain to their part in it, some don't.
There is a heck of a lot of momentum in a freight train with a broken locomotive that has no breaks...
140 million Russians is a big train to stop, and it will go for months without any true leadership.
But, when it comes to a stop or derails it will go very fast.
My opinion is that all the smaller bosses in Russia is trying to figure out what is happening, consolidate what power they have, and are hoping that Russia can hanker on until the presidential election in 2024.
Fat chance for that I would say..."
italianjob
Well-known member
There's some rather graphic footage of trench combat circulating on Twitter. I never know what to believe on posts like this, and why it's even been posted at all.
It's horrific, especially since some of those getting shot a close range arent carrying weapons.
Sooner it over the better. Praying for some kind of peaceful solution
War is a horrible business. It really is best not to look at that graphic stuff. This war will be captured on video like no other, with so many soldiers and drones carrying cameras. I think there is an entire generation of young people who have been de-sensitised by the availability of this imagery and by stuff like Call of Duty.
Thats a good point. It's not our family and friends getting killed and injured. Much of it does look like some kind of PC game, a divorce from reality.
Hap
Well-known member
That's my take on it too.
Whoever is being killed, it ought not be broadcast - it's just plain wrong.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
War is horrible and has been since our ancestors where living in caves, in the not too distant past a war would affect a region or a section of A country, now a war is only a few wrong moves away from affecting everyone and everything on this earth. In the very near past when a war took place the people at home may of heard things in the media(mainly the glory of victorious battles) and not saw first hand footage of the blood, S**t and tears of a battlefield and the brutality of war.
As a species we are capable of such great things Love, arts,music, kindness, compassion, an ability to pass knowledge between each other and technology.
But at the same time we are capable of hate, vengeance, anger, using technology and knowledge to wound maim and kill.
We are all capable of these good points and bad points to a degree but when A normal person get angry most of the time it might be swearing to ourselves about someone cutting us off at a junction or jumping a queue but most of the time it doesn't cause any issues. When people of power get angry or feel this self righteousness or decide that they want something that doesn't belong to them 1000s of people die. I stopped being shocked by most things a long time ago, but it saddens me with a great sadness of these people on both sides who are fighting a war that isn't there war, the Mum's and Dad's losing kids, the kids losing Mums and dad's the young couples losing there soul mates, so much loss and pain for no real reason apart from greed and paranoia.
Muttley
Well-known member
Interesting thread analysing the problems created when the UA hit a large ammunition dump
Rykove (Partyzany) ammo depot probably hit with Storm Shadow missiles. The extent and scope of the damage is huge, there are before/after satellite photos of the depot. There isn't much left. Apparently the secondary explosions went on for six hours after the strike.
Rykove (Partyzany) ammo depot probably hit with Storm Shadow missiles. The extent and scope of the damage is huge, there are before/after satellite photos of the depot. There isn't much left. Apparently the secondary explosions went on for six hours after the strike.
Incoming!!!
"Due to Prigozhin exploding and giving out every single location of the Ukrainian offensive as of noon today I can muse upon actual live data.
So, let us jump forward an entire week, and boy have I had to sit on my fingers to not write about their progress.
Knowing how insanely successful Ukraine has been while every farken' pundit on the planet has been writing that "The Ukrainian Offensive has stalled out", and not correct it with what I knew was painful...
Russia has all reasons to have put a sock in the mouth of their propagandists, and Ukraine called for and got operational silence.
Prigozhin was though unimpressed by both parties demanding his silence, especially since he was angry as hell.
Ukraine did though send out two pictures that should have been enough for everyone to know exactly how it is going.
1 image of a truly and infectiously smiling Budanov.
1 image of Zalushny at the frontline HQ pointing at a blurred map wearing a very prominent Baby Yoda patch on his chest.
There was just no reason for the smile, or Zalushny leading directly the war unless a sizeable chunk of the Ukrainian army was now engaged somewhere, and the smile told how successful it is.
Zhaporizhzhia
4 days ago Ukraine reached Robotyne.
This is the first main defence line of Russia in Zhaporizhzhia.
Ukraine had found out how badly defended the massive fortifications are in manpower, and decided that they can take the hard road instead of probing further.
The advantage here is that it is the faster route to Crimea, and secondly that it is the fastest route to encircle ZNPP at Enerhodar.
It was though previously seen as maybe to hard a way to go.
Two days ago Ukraine cracked the first of the Surovikin lines on the way to Melitopol and completely encircled Robotyne, today they are holding the Northern 2/3 of Robotyne.
While mopping up operations continued other heavy mechbats raced down the road and took Novoprokopivka and Chervonohirka.
Advance Guards are now standing at the second Surovikin line at Tokmak with the Battle of Tokmak expected to begin tomorrow.
I can't stress enough the importance of Ukraine being able to crush the first and biggest of the Surovikin lines in under 48 hours.
It is a tour de force.
Kakhovka Front
In the Eastern part of the offensive that is dealing with taking ZNPP in a pocket and saving a large part of Europe, Ukraine has followed the former dam and taken Vasylivka and are racing towards Dniprorudne.
Southern Kherson
Ukraine has taken Hola Pryshtan' yesterday and are already ferrying over large units of regular troops.
First special forces attacked across the water and took advantage of the depleted Russian units, and for once the weather was on Ukraines side and the sun had made a surprisingly good job at drying up the mud after the flooding.
It should also be pointed out that Hola Prystan' has a deep draft harbour, so the mud slogging is not an issue after the initial storming operations.
From Hola Prystan' goes both the Eastern arm and the Southern arm of the P57 road, and there are only scarce and light Russian troops remaining to hinder the upcoming Ukrainian advance, there are no forces in Kherson remaining that could push out the Ukrainians that are now spreading outwards.
If Ukraine can pull it off...
From Molochnyi Liman south of Melitopol Ukraine can go West and block off the Eastern two approaches to Crimea and start to directly bombard them with regular artillery, and start to hammer deep into Crimea with GLSDBs, GMLRS, PrSMs, and Storm Shadows.
In fact, Ukraine already has the landbridge under tactical control due to the arrival of the GLSDBs on the battlefield, Ukraine are now launching them in the hundreds per day to do exactly this to ensure that the starving of Crimea and Kherson is beginning.
From Hola Prystan' Ukraine will both race eastwards towards ZNPP and to the South to block the Western approach to Crimea and start to hammer that one into oblivion.
ZNPP
All of this is set against my personal nightmare.
It is a race to take ZNPP and try to stop the largest terrorist act in human history.
Here I can't say more than that the entire world is doing everything possible to make it not happen.
We know now how it is mined, the Russians was all to happy to show it to the IAEA.
They have mined the cooling pond walls, and they have mined the main cooling pumps.
From the moment they blow them we have less than 24 hours to take the place and install new cooling pumps.
Obviously every trick in the book, and a few more than that, is employed to make it not happen.
The last option is obviously to storm the place.
Let us for the sake of sanity (mine), return to the Offensive and mop it up for today.
Thermobarics
Ukrainian soldiers are now equipped with the XM1060 40mm for grenade launchers and the SMAV-NE MK153 SMAV rocket launcher, they are spiffingly effective when clearing trenches.
Images has been released of Ukrainian air planes carrying brand new weapons pods with missiles hanging off them.
Those missiles are Hellfire missiles.
Ukraine has been cleared for 3 types, the worst of the bunch.
Hellfire 114-R9X, a precission assassination drone without a charge, instead it carries 9 knife blades that flip out prior to hitting to cut up the intended general or other high value target.
Hellfire Longbow 114, bunker buster charge.
Hellfire 114N, Thermobaric missile.
There is also something bigger that has been delivered.
Much bigger.
Kersh Bridge
The targeting data is set for the bridge, and all that is needed now and the work to drop it will begin.
Ukraine is currently 60km from the ocean, and my guess is that Ukraine will cut the Kersh Bridge when they are 50km or less from the coast.
At that point they have the landbridge cut with barrel artillery to support the missiles.
Basically all bridges, train or road, are now cut from the Donetsk direction, and inside of Crimea the bridges are dropping like broken concrete.
But, I do think that Ukraine will want barrel artillery in comfy range to keep up the pressure when the weather is to bad for missiles.
It is what I would want.
I would say that they will wait until they are 40km from the sea arm just south of Melitopol, and then hasta la vista Bridge.
Battle of Tokmak
Ukraine will do the same as they did at Robotyne, they will cut the Surovikin Line east and west of Tokmak and go around both sides (ring fort around the city) and then barge on while subsequent forces deal with Tokmak itself, probably they will just use artillery and starve the Russians out.
Right now momentum is more important than meticulously taking each village.
Currently I expect the Battle of Melitopol to begin within two to three weeks, and I am conservative here.
When Ukraine has that surrounded the landbridge is truly cut in every single way possible, even if Tokmak and Melitopol holds out for months.
Cutting is right now more important than holding.
The Russians will come out as soon as they run out of vodka anyhow.
Aftermath
Ukraine would after Melitopol take everything eastwards.
And then smaller forces will be block the approaches, in combination with a sizeable amount of artillery to pound the defences, and to launch missiles all over Crimea pounding the parched and hungry Russians into submission.
At the same time the autumn offensive would start to push towards Mariupol and Donetsk City, probably taking both.
As per usual, our feisty informant Prigozhin might have a say in ending things quicker, it all depends on when the Russian civil war begins.
As per usual...
We will see."
"Due to Prigozhin exploding and giving out every single location of the Ukrainian offensive as of noon today I can muse upon actual live data.
So, let us jump forward an entire week, and boy have I had to sit on my fingers to not write about their progress.
Knowing how insanely successful Ukraine has been while every farken' pundit on the planet has been writing that "The Ukrainian Offensive has stalled out", and not correct it with what I knew was painful...
Russia has all reasons to have put a sock in the mouth of their propagandists, and Ukraine called for and got operational silence.
Prigozhin was though unimpressed by both parties demanding his silence, especially since he was angry as hell.
Ukraine did though send out two pictures that should have been enough for everyone to know exactly how it is going.
1 image of a truly and infectiously smiling Budanov.
1 image of Zalushny at the frontline HQ pointing at a blurred map wearing a very prominent Baby Yoda patch on his chest.
There was just no reason for the smile, or Zalushny leading directly the war unless a sizeable chunk of the Ukrainian army was now engaged somewhere, and the smile told how successful it is.
Zhaporizhzhia
4 days ago Ukraine reached Robotyne.
This is the first main defence line of Russia in Zhaporizhzhia.
Ukraine had found out how badly defended the massive fortifications are in manpower, and decided that they can take the hard road instead of probing further.
The advantage here is that it is the faster route to Crimea, and secondly that it is the fastest route to encircle ZNPP at Enerhodar.
It was though previously seen as maybe to hard a way to go.
Two days ago Ukraine cracked the first of the Surovikin lines on the way to Melitopol and completely encircled Robotyne, today they are holding the Northern 2/3 of Robotyne.
While mopping up operations continued other heavy mechbats raced down the road and took Novoprokopivka and Chervonohirka.
Advance Guards are now standing at the second Surovikin line at Tokmak with the Battle of Tokmak expected to begin tomorrow.
I can't stress enough the importance of Ukraine being able to crush the first and biggest of the Surovikin lines in under 48 hours.
It is a tour de force.
Kakhovka Front
In the Eastern part of the offensive that is dealing with taking ZNPP in a pocket and saving a large part of Europe, Ukraine has followed the former dam and taken Vasylivka and are racing towards Dniprorudne.
Southern Kherson
Ukraine has taken Hola Pryshtan' yesterday and are already ferrying over large units of regular troops.
First special forces attacked across the water and took advantage of the depleted Russian units, and for once the weather was on Ukraines side and the sun had made a surprisingly good job at drying up the mud after the flooding.
It should also be pointed out that Hola Prystan' has a deep draft harbour, so the mud slogging is not an issue after the initial storming operations.
From Hola Prystan' goes both the Eastern arm and the Southern arm of the P57 road, and there are only scarce and light Russian troops remaining to hinder the upcoming Ukrainian advance, there are no forces in Kherson remaining that could push out the Ukrainians that are now spreading outwards.
If Ukraine can pull it off...
From Molochnyi Liman south of Melitopol Ukraine can go West and block off the Eastern two approaches to Crimea and start to directly bombard them with regular artillery, and start to hammer deep into Crimea with GLSDBs, GMLRS, PrSMs, and Storm Shadows.
In fact, Ukraine already has the landbridge under tactical control due to the arrival of the GLSDBs on the battlefield, Ukraine are now launching them in the hundreds per day to do exactly this to ensure that the starving of Crimea and Kherson is beginning.
From Hola Prystan' Ukraine will both race eastwards towards ZNPP and to the South to block the Western approach to Crimea and start to hammer that one into oblivion.
ZNPP
All of this is set against my personal nightmare.
It is a race to take ZNPP and try to stop the largest terrorist act in human history.
Here I can't say more than that the entire world is doing everything possible to make it not happen.
We know now how it is mined, the Russians was all to happy to show it to the IAEA.
They have mined the cooling pond walls, and they have mined the main cooling pumps.
From the moment they blow them we have less than 24 hours to take the place and install new cooling pumps.
Obviously every trick in the book, and a few more than that, is employed to make it not happen.
The last option is obviously to storm the place.
Let us for the sake of sanity (mine), return to the Offensive and mop it up for today.
Thermobarics
Ukrainian soldiers are now equipped with the XM1060 40mm for grenade launchers and the SMAV-NE MK153 SMAV rocket launcher, they are spiffingly effective when clearing trenches.
Images has been released of Ukrainian air planes carrying brand new weapons pods with missiles hanging off them.
Those missiles are Hellfire missiles.
Ukraine has been cleared for 3 types, the worst of the bunch.
Hellfire 114-R9X, a precission assassination drone without a charge, instead it carries 9 knife blades that flip out prior to hitting to cut up the intended general or other high value target.
Hellfire Longbow 114, bunker buster charge.
Hellfire 114N, Thermobaric missile.
There is also something bigger that has been delivered.
Much bigger.
Kersh Bridge
The targeting data is set for the bridge, and all that is needed now and the work to drop it will begin.
Ukraine is currently 60km from the ocean, and my guess is that Ukraine will cut the Kersh Bridge when they are 50km or less from the coast.
At that point they have the landbridge cut with barrel artillery to support the missiles.
Basically all bridges, train or road, are now cut from the Donetsk direction, and inside of Crimea the bridges are dropping like broken concrete.
But, I do think that Ukraine will want barrel artillery in comfy range to keep up the pressure when the weather is to bad for missiles.
It is what I would want.
I would say that they will wait until they are 40km from the sea arm just south of Melitopol, and then hasta la vista Bridge.
Battle of Tokmak
Ukraine will do the same as they did at Robotyne, they will cut the Surovikin Line east and west of Tokmak and go around both sides (ring fort around the city) and then barge on while subsequent forces deal with Tokmak itself, probably they will just use artillery and starve the Russians out.
Right now momentum is more important than meticulously taking each village.
Currently I expect the Battle of Melitopol to begin within two to three weeks, and I am conservative here.
When Ukraine has that surrounded the landbridge is truly cut in every single way possible, even if Tokmak and Melitopol holds out for months.
Cutting is right now more important than holding.
The Russians will come out as soon as they run out of vodka anyhow.
Aftermath
Ukraine would after Melitopol take everything eastwards.
And then smaller forces will be block the approaches, in combination with a sizeable amount of artillery to pound the defences, and to launch missiles all over Crimea pounding the parched and hungry Russians into submission.
At the same time the autumn offensive would start to push towards Mariupol and Donetsk City, probably taking both.
As per usual, our feisty informant Prigozhin might have a say in ending things quicker, it all depends on when the Russian civil war begins.
As per usual...
We will see."
FishofContemplation
Well-known member
Taking the risk of jumping in again when I’ve been so badly misunderstood through my own carelessness, I would like to make clear that I accept entirely that there is no credible evidence of any genocidal intent on the part of the government of Ukraine formed before this war started. The source of aggression is clear. The blame for the consequences is clear.
But it is as to those consequences that the comparison with the mid-twentieth century still seems apposite to me. There was no genocidal intent on the part of the government of Czechoslovakia in 1936 either. To believe that was to believe the lies of the aggressor. It was nevertheless the consequence of his brutal aggression and eventual defeat. I merely see this as a likely outcome here for a similar reason.
If I overreacted it was to the glib comparison with Ireland. The Irish do remember too much. We have a difficult history. We have some and atrocious past episodes and some embarrassing present ones. But it is by orders of magnitude not comparable.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Not new news in a sense,especially with the regular updates on here. but it is more obvious that Ukraine are getting more nervous in regards to the NPP and making it more public and spoke about the possibility of the Russian military doing something stupid, like when Ukraine announced that Russia had mined the Dam in autumn last year.
Muttley
Well-known member
Interesting how they are really talking about failure and when the youngish woman chirps up with some further inconvenient truths she is told that her involvement in the discussion is over. Reality is starting to impinge on their world.