Further to
@Millbrook's post about Patrushev's speech.
A few days on and it has resonated somewhat.
So here are our man's thoughts.
"The Tzar is Dead
It is well known that I have been doubtful of Putins existence for a year now.
Lacking evidence for his existence, and having evidence of a lot of body doubles galumphing about, have sort of made Putin into "Schrödinger's Putin", both alive and not at the same time.
Problem is that not even a corpse would by now be entirely convincing of anything unless we can independently verify the DNA.
A speech have sent Russia into turmoil internally, and made all of Ukraine scratch their heads.
It was none other than Patrushev that held said speech on Russian TV, so it is as official as anything can be in Russia.
It is well known that Patrushev is the most powerful of the Siloviki, if not the most powerful of everyone, in Russia.
He rarely, if ever holds speeches.
The speech was a thinly veiled eulogy upon the life of Putin, and throughout the entire speech he used past tense in regards of Putin.
In the morning during the generals conference call I butted in and asked Tank Girl, Oleksandr and Zyrskiy if it was indeed made in past tense since my Russian is at best describable as apoplectic and apocalyptic.
All 3 stated that it was indeed in past tense, and that no Russian would mistake the tenses like that throughout an entire speech.
So, having a Russian (Zyrskiy), a native Russian speaker (Tank Girl), and a blooming university professor and Poet (Oleksandr) verify this I can pretty much say that it was intentional since all of them stated that Patrushev is really good at speaking and writing Russian.
On top of that Patrushev was all dressed in black while giving the speech.
They also pointed out an oddity that I am as a Swede is fairly unable to observe since we dress like ****.
Patrushev wore an expensive suit, but he had the shirt unbuttoned and wore no tie, it is unseen of him to not wear a tie and unbutton things.
All 3 of them stated that it was a signal to the audience about change to come, and that he tried to look accessible to the people.
Accessible is not a something normally associated with Patrushev since he is a psychopathic ****, and every Russian knows this.
As a Russian seeing this inaccessible, strict and stern God of Death and Torture, all of a sudden holding a speech on TV in a relaxed and fatherly manner about the life and career of Putin in past tense hammered in the reality, there is no more a Putin.
And now the Russians are truly wondering, who the **** is that Putin in Kazakhstan?
After all, Patrushev is well known to not have a single funny-bone in his body, so the Russians are taking it seriously.
So are my Russian speaking friends.
We even sort of have a time and death of his demice, at least one that is drifting around in high circles in Kremlin.
It is drifting so forcefully that it is sanctioned as a rumour from above.
Apparently he died in his sleep in the evening of the 26th of October.
I seriously doubt that date, at most it is the date they took him out of the freezer and sent him to the taxidermist.
All of the above is about as factual as anyone can describe it without being the actual Patrushev.
It is at least as verified factually as the Ukrainian General Staff and assorted Western Intelligence Services can get it.
So, now let me speculate a bit upon this.
I have for a long time heavily suspected that Putin was dead and that all the "Putins" have been a maskirovka while diverse power brokers have figured out what the hell to do, and find a new candidate that they can rule.
I always suspected the Deadline of Putins Death was hinged upon the upcoming elections.
Up until now the "Putins" have just been dummies, but if a "Putin" would get elected he would sort of become legally the new Putin, and he could start clearing out Putins familly and friends over time.
Heck, the Putin could for all we know be 50 and rule for decades if he is skilled enough.
And with four official candidates in the field vying for the Presidency it was soon time for Putin to declare that he was going for the Presidency, and I guess it was to strong an option even for Russia to have a heavily siliconed and botoxed actor as a President, especially since there are so many "Putins" that I do not think even they know what "Putin" is which "Putin" by now.
After all, everyone got their own "Putin".
So, either they would have to put up a "Putin" on the ballot in the next few weeks, or put in a candidate of their own.
At least Patrushev is going for the second option, heck he might even go for it himself, Russians after all love their hawk-nosed strong homocidal leaders.
Question is more, is one of the official candidates the one picked by the leaders of Russia?
Let us take a brief look at each one, remember that most of them are nobodies, at least to the west, with one glaring exception.
Ivan Otrakovksy announced in april that he would run in the election. He is an independent, but he is running on the platform of The all-Russian Officer's Assembly, headed by the somewhat powerful Vladimir Kvachkov (former GRU-general).
This would make Otrakovsky a Siloviki candidate.
Otrakovsky is a nobody in Russia.
Ustin Chashchikin announced his intent in June.
He is mostly known for being into creating phantasmagorical law proposals about how to make more babies in Russia, he has even published books on the subject of the importance of squirting babies left and right and at all cost, he is also an ardent anti-vaxxer.
Even by Russian standards he is seen as a complete loon.
In August the first serious candidate emerged as Igor Strelkov announced his candidacy based on The Angry Patriots Club platform.
He is well known in Russia, and seen generally as a do'er of things and he has quite a large following in the right side of Russian politics.
His star is though vaning due to the war going badly, even though he has been an ardent critic, he is sort of being seen as the reason it started in the first place due to him planing and executing the takeover of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014.
Boris Nadezhdin announced his candidacy on the 6th of October.
He is old school and fairly honest as Russians go.
The Ukrainians are trying to "biggie him up" since it would be sort of a good candidate for them.
But, alas in Russia he is a nobody without any supporter among the population, nor upon high.
Here's the thing, no heavy-weight would ever go up against Putin if he was alive.
If they did they would die after all.
So, if in the next few weeks a heavy-weight enters the race we will know that Putin is indeed dead.
Who are then the likely candidates, note not all of them will run, at most one or two will do that and it will be preapproved?
Alexey Dyumin, Putins ex-bodyguard and current Governor of Tula Oblast.
Dmitry Medvedev, if he is sober enough to even sign the paperwork...
Sergey Sobyanin, the powerful Mayor of Moscow
Mikhail Mishustin, the current primeminister of Russia
Marat Khusnullin, incredibly popular in Russia among the people, in a free election he would blow all the others out of the water in the first run.
There's two names I am not putting on the list, but theoretically could run, and if either of them do they will win.
Patrushev, nobody thought he would be interested since he is sort of running the country in all but name.
Sergey Naryshkin, if he runs he would win since SVR is heading the election committy and is doing the actual election of Russia "to guarantee the legal result of elections in Russia" (direct quote from their mission statement).
In the end only two names count.
Naryshkin and Patrushev.
If a serious candidate is not approved by both it is not happening.
Naryshkin is against the war since getgo, and Patrushev was pro-War.
By now it is not so sure that Patrushev is pro-War, he is not stupid by a longshot so he knows that Russia is going to **** over it.
So, it is possible that they together will agree on a suitable "anti-War" candidate to get them out of the mess, but obviously it will be someone they control.
That would leave exactly two candidates, Sergey Sobyanin and Marat Khusnullin.
Problem is just that those two are to popular in Russia...
That weirdly only leaves Naryshkin as the only remaining wellknown anti-war "candidate", due to him being the first that somewhat protested against the war even before it started, obviously due to knowing quite well what would happen.
Obviously that could easily lead to civil war due to Naryshkin and Patrushev not really being overly fond of each other.
They might obviously take a less known "dove" and make him big, question would then just be who...
Oh, and please notice that nobody is even talking about the leader of the Fashist Party of Russia, Alexey Navalny.
If you think Patrushev would be bad as President of Russia... he is a kind and softhearted person in comparison, Navalny would make Stalin look like a soft comedian interested in improv theater.
I fear that he will suffer soon from existence failure, how sad.
Oh well...
I had here planned to write about the frontline from a numbers perspective, but that will have to wait for the evening...
Mea culpa, I am longwinded when I have gotten some sleep under my belt."
