Here's today's rambling
"
The fog of war is an apt expression.
Turned out that the missile was indeed Ukrainian.
In Poland they are secretly saying Kurva at the missed chance of doing something constructive with lot's of Russians.
I suspect the victims will get state funerals as hero's in the war on Russia, and that they will spin it so hard that Russia somehow ends up shafted anyway.
But for now, let us get back to other foggy shores.
Russia
Ukraine missiled an Oil depot deep inside Russia, and continued to shell targets in Belgorod. It is becoming more and more clear that Ukraine is seeing that going North is a clear future alternative if Russia does not go home.
The targeting goes beyond limiting the supply chain, and instead includes defence installations and troop concentrations.
In general Ukraine is starting to have problems finding enough depots, logistic hubs, command posts, and equipment to hit. Instead they are increasingly hitting troop concentrations. This will over time lead to distribution of Russian troops, making breakthroughs even easier.
Svatove/Kreminna
Ukraine is increasing the pressure on the remaining Russian units in Svatove now that they have either direct control, or fire-control of the P66 Highway.
At Svatove they are pouring precission artillery on top of the hapless Mobiks. A final push is now expected at any time there.
After that it will probably be Kreminna's turn.
It is now becoming clear that Ukraine is not arsed with any Winter stoppage in the war, they are going full steam, and will continue to do so throughout winter. After all, they have better winter gear and logistics, so Winter is very much to their advantage.
I would also here point out that most of my training was in winter warfare, and winter is no reason to halt any wars.
The entire premise is just ridiculous.
Warm gear, warm coffee, warm feet, warm food, and you are good to go squashing freezing hungry Russkies.
The Swedish temperature limit is minus 52 Celsius, that is when we give up on going on an offensive or exercise.
I have a huge problem seeing the Ukrainians viewing things differently.
Kherson II
Out of the Fog over Dnipro Bug the latter day Vikings rode unto the beach, and Surovikin wrote home "Beware of the Wrath of the Kievans".
The Russians have now recognized openly that they have lost the Kinburn Spit.
Russia tried to mount a counter-offensive, but they rapidly discovered that it is hard to do that when you have to do it on a road that is in open view of the Ukrainian artillery, and that it is Ukraine that has the fire control of the road.
Meanwhile Ukraine is bringing in more and more equipment and prepairing a storming of their own.
Having an enemy presence at your back is not a nice thing indeed.
Especially if you have them doing miracles in galumphing across the Dnipro as if it did not exist.
Surovikin made a Trump-sized mistake. He forgot that the Northwestern bank is high ground.
So, effectively Ukrainian artillery are shooting downwards into well visible Russian defences.
No wonder the Ukrainians could restore the bridges and use boats to galumph across the river at such a rapid pace.
Now they have two solid beach-heads at Antonivka and Nova Kakhovka and are rapidly spreading out and pushing ahead.
This is a complete disaster for Russia. From whichever way you look at it they are outflanked and their entire manouvre depth towards Crimea is at immediate peril.
The area is a on top of that a desert, perfect for tank-warfare.
And it is not Russia that has the upper hand in that kind of warfare. Donating 500 plus tanks to Ukraine was somewhat of a tactical mistake.
Currently Russia have 440ish tanks and Ukraine closer to 1200... And the best Russian gear is over in Luhansk.
When Ukraine has enough gear across this will go very fast, rapid tactical warfare are after all something they excell at.
Surovikin is obviously aware of this, and the signs are that he is not **** bothered with even trying, just some delaying tactics.
This is why he is sending the troops down to the Crimean border and the defence lines over there.
The next few weeks
I am fully aware that Ukraine will probably do something completely different and amazeballz instead of what I will write down below, it is what I think is most likely to follow.
Ukraine will continue to advance in Luhansk at a slow but steady pace to cut the supply roads there.
Defend in Bakhmut, why change a killer of a concept?
In Vuhledar Ukraine will continue to push hard, it ties down large amounts of Russians since Ukraine is threatening advances in 3 directions from that spot.
Over at Zhaporizhzhia Ukraine will most likely do nothing right now.
Everyone expected Ukraine to move troops from Kherson to reinforce here and push hard.
Surovikin did that for one. Previously I also thought that they would, but Ukraine proved me wrong here.
I would not bother when I have a perfect opportunity to hammer it straight down Kherson for a knockout blow on Crimea, the pride and joy of Russia, a place they want to keep so much that they are farting watermelons over it.
Instead, Kherson II it is.
Ukraine will put speakers on their tanks and blast suitable music as they race across the desert downwards to Crimea, while simultaneously spreding out toward the Kinburn and forming a new frontline in the direction of Melitopol flanking Zhaporizhzhia.
It is at the Voloshyne-Armiansk-Perekop line that things will get interesting.
Either Ukraine spend a month blowing it to smithereens while eating Borstj, or they do some of their usual magic.
Let me put on my Whizard Hat and have at it.
Ukraine will go there, set up the usual Borstj-artillery shop, but the main bulk will go East towards Vasylivka.
When there they will do an amphibious assault across the salt lake and that will be that.
At this point Russians will be utterly despondent and used to losing everything, everywhere, all the time, and go home.
Russian Rabbit out of the **** Syndrome
I never seize to be amazed at all the people believing that Russia somehow will pull a rabbit out of its **** that will save the day and give Russia some sort of mystical victory.
The amount of Western pundits reverting to this narrative must be caused by lacking math classes.
For Russia to pull a military Rabbit out of it's **** it must first pull an industrial rectal rabbit.
Russia does not have the industrial capacity to produce the armament needed to save itself.
Until this is solved there will be no military ****-rabbit.
And rebuilding the squandered industry will take two years, and there are no signs that they have even started solving this problem.
And even if Russia did solve this problem they are up against The Collective Western Military Industrial Complex in all its "Glory" and Might. 85 percent of all weapons on Earth is produced by The Collective West, and we can easily increase production over time into the purely ludicrous.
I find these pundits to reside permanently in an equational great Fog."
