The end?

I've followed this post with interest and this is my first post. I came across a random YouTube video recently where a guy called Scott Ritter who was apparently a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer claims that Ukraine cannot win. Has anybody on here seen this vid? If so, what's your thoughts? I'm not sure who to believe tbh.

 
A quick Google of Ritter brings up a man with a long-standing axe to grind with the US and it’s foreign policy decisions - not a bad thing necessarily, but when it veers into conspiracy and crankery, combined with him being fond of making big predictions that aren’t always correct, it suggests a dishonest source. In addition, he works for Russian state media - a big red flag (no soviet pun intended).

He’s also been convicted of sex offences involving minors, which makes him an utter scumbag but I suppose doesn’t have to impact on his professional opinions. All told, he appears to be a pretty nasty piece of work - not someone to take seriously and highlights the danger and influence of YouTube and social media ‘commentators’.
 
Smoggle said:
A quick Google of Ritter brings up a man with a long-standing axe to grind with the US and it’s foreign policy decisions - not a bad thing necessarily, but when it veers into conspiracy and crankery, combined with him being fond of making big predictions that aren’t always correct, it suggests a dishonest source. In addition, he works for Russian state media - a big red flag (no soviet pun intended).

He’s also been convicted of sex offences involving minors, which doesn’t have to impact on his professional opinions, but when combined with everything above he appears to be a pretty nasty piece of work - not someone to take seriously and highlights the danger and influence of YouTube and social media ‘commentators’.
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Blimey! Thanks for that. I should've thought of Googling him myself. Sounds like a total scumbag!
 
LargeBeerBelly said:
Blimey! Thanks for that. I should've thought of Googling him myself. Sounds like a total scumbag!
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No worries, as soon as I saw he works for Russian media that’s the key to why he would pump out anti-Ukraine material. His previous anti-US positions are at times understandable and sometimes uncontroversial, and he does have some clout with previous employment experience - but he seems to have gone off into making big predictions combined with quackery. We’ll see if any of his current predictions come true, but I’m not sure it’s worth taking much notice of him, Russian shills are 10 a penny!

This is not even taking into account his overall judgement making skills having been convicted of being a wrong ‘un too…
 
LBB, plenty of decent folk to follow rather than a convicted pervert, it’s also helpful to avoid the Tucker Carlson crew and anyone who he passes off as an “authority”.

If you subscribe to the wars are ultimately won by Logistics then dry but useful thinking from Lawrence Freedman and Phillips P OBrien have been good on the background and strategy, Trent Telenko on the nuts and bolts and Mark Hertling and Ben Hodges from a proper military perspective.

Not forgetting Borolads Deep Throat contact who has been a bit of an eye opener, and got me to a point of guess the Putin whenever the **** turns up on the telly.
 
LargeBeerBelly said:
I've followed this post with interest and this is my first post. I came across a random YouTube video recently where a guy called Scott Ritter who was apparently a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer claims that Ukraine cannot win. Has anybody on here seen this vid? If so, what's your thoughts? I'm not sure who to believe tbh.

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He's not to be totally or always discounted, but he has an axe to grind and has his usp to maintain, so he can be taken with a pinch of salt.

I mean, in the video he describes the idea that Ukraine could 'recapture'* Kherson as fantasy and predicts the US was going to run out of diesel by the beginning of December.

* note the word used. Not liberate but 'recapture'.
 
Winter arrives in Donetsk and Luhansk on Friday night and the following week promises to be extremely cold (according to current modelling). Temps below -10.
 
So, wars are won at the operational and strategic level and it's all about logistics. So far Russia have been terrible on that front. Wars are lost by bad commanders. Russia has shown it has many of those.

Battles are won, modern ones anyway, by firepower. Artillery inflict the majority of casualties and are what breaks a soldiers nerve more than anything. This is why I have been asking about the artillery reserves and stockpiles @borolad259 . Your friend is clearly in the know about a lot, but something like hard numbers on supplies, production levels of munitions are niche and might be outside his area, perhaps even his due consideration. When this becomes an offensive war for Ukraine against fortified positions where defences are organised and lightning advances by mechanised spearhead units can be held up by mines and artillery, or in urban centres where tanks aren't decisive operators, especially when aerial superiority is not possible, it becomes attritional. Losses matter. Artillery capability matters.

So I found this. The guy is analysing from the outside and there are a lot of variables, but he does a good job I think. I'd be interested in what your mate thinks about it, if you can get him to watch it. I'd say I still favour Ukraine and think the Russians could break at any time, but it is still very much in the balance. The Russians will learn and adapt, some of their mobiks will be well trained by the spring.

 
Lefty said:
So, wars are won at the operational and strategic level and it's all about logistics. So far Russia have been terrible on that front. Wars are lost by bad commanders. Russia has shown it has many of those.

Battles are won, modern ones anyway, by firepower. Artillery inflict the majority of casualties and are what breaks a soldiers nerve more than anything. This is why I have been asking about the artillery reserves and stockpiles @borolad259 . Your friend is clearly in the know about a lot, but something like hard numbers on supplies, production levels of munitions are niche and might be outside his area, perhaps even his due consideration. When this becomes an offensive war for Ukraine against fortified positions where defences are organised and lightning advances by mechanised spearhead units can be held up by mines and artillery, or in urban centres where tanks aren't decisive operators, especially when aerial superiority is not possible, it becomes attritional. Losses matter. Artillery capability matters.

So I found this. The guy is analysing from the outside and there are a lot of variables, but he does a good job I think. I'd be interested in what your mate thinks about it, if you can get him to watch it. I'd say I still favour Ukraine and think the Russians could break at any time, but it is still very much in the balance. The Russians will learn and adapt, some of their mobiks will be well trained by the spring.

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I will send it to him.

I think he wrote a fair bit last week about the artilery supplies that Ukraine has compared with Russia. Don't know if you saw that one.

Edit. You did, as you replied.
 
LargeBeerBelly said:
I've followed this post with interest and this is my first post. I came across a random YouTube video recently where a guy called Scott Ritter who was apparently a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer claims that Ukraine cannot win. Has anybody on here seen this vid? If so, what's your thoughts? I'm not sure who to believe tbh.

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Nobody wins in a war of this magnitude, each side loses to a great or lesser degree
 
A balding guy with a wooden leg and hypersensitive about his appearance, gets invited to a fancy dress party and approaches a mail order costumer for an outfit to conceal his 'infirmities'.

After a few days a parcel arrives containing a tricorn hat and plastic parrot along with a note thanking him for his custom and advising him that " the hat will hide his bald patch and all pirates have wooden legs".

Irate with their insensitive customer service, he returns the package with along with a letter complaining that the costume would only highlight his peg leg. A few days later another parcel arrives on his doorstep containing a monks habit and a letter apologising for their earlier gaffe and advising him that the monks habit will hide his wooden leg and all monks have bald patches.

Incensed with their jocular attitude towards his appearance ,he again returns the costume with a bitter letter of complaint pointing out that this idea only draws attention to his bald patch.

After a week or so a package arrives which upon opening contains a tin of golden syrup and a note instructing him to pour the syrup over his head, stick his wooden leg up his ****, and go to the party as a toffee-apple.
 
Millbrook said:
A balding guy with a wooden leg and hypersensitive about his appearance, gets invited to a fancy dress party and approaches a mail order costumer for an outfit to conceal his 'infirmities'.

After a few days a parcel arrives containing a tricorn hat and plastic parrot along with a note thanking him for his custom and advising him that " the hat will hide his bald patch and all pirates have wooden legs".

Irate with their insensitive customer service, he returns the package with along with a letter complaining that the costume would only highlight his peg leg. A few days later another parcel arrives on his doorstep containing a monks habit and a letter apologising for their earlier gaffe and advising him that the monks habit will hide his wooden leg and all monks have bald patches.

Incensed with their jocular attitude towards his appearance ,he again returns the costume with a bitter letter of complaint pointing out that this idea only draws attention to his bald patch.

After a week or so a package arrives which upon opening contains a tin of golden syrup and a note instructing him to pour the syrup over his head, stick his wooden leg up his ****, and go to the party as a toffee-apple.
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Er, was the baldy guy Putin who has successfully concealed a recent leg amputation? Otherwise, bit of a diversion on this thread ;)
 
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