The end?

If they do drop a stray missile into Poland God help them.

3 Generations away from the atrocities commited by Russians in Poland and still they wait for revenge.

One thing I don't get........ if the Russians have no ammo, are very badly trianed, supply lines cut, completely demoralised etc etc.... why aren't the Ukrianians smashing through them with ease?

It's not all as it's painted for sure. See Soledar.

I'm still though lost within admiration for them. Still they die in their thousands and still they fight on.

Worth remembering and worth repeating

Ukraine population - 43million........ Russian population 143million
Ukraine GDP - 200BillionUSD ........... Russian GDP 1.8Trillion USD

Even taking into account the hardware help they've had..... it's miraculous.
 
zzzzz said:
One thing I don't get........ if the Russians have no ammo, are very badly trianed, supply lines cut, completely demoralised etc etc.... why aren't the Ukrianians smashing through them with ease?

It's not all as it's painted for sure. See Soledar.
Click to expand...

It's not that they have NO ammo, it is that they started with approx 17,000,000 shells stockpiled and used them at such a rate that they have spent about 10,000,000 since Feb 24 2022. At best they are reckoned to be able to manufacture/source 3,000,000 in the next year as replacements. That means that if they use them at exactly the same rate they only have 12 months supply left. That would leave them with no reserves at all if China, or Chechnya, Georgia, Finland, Sweden, Poland etc took advantage of the situation which needed a response. In addition to just the numbers, there is supply. It is one thing having reserves in Siberia, but with factories and depots blowing up, supply lines being cut, they just are running low at the front.

Remember, they have used all those shells to do what? Take Kharkiv and Kherson which they have now lost, fail to take Kyiv and then get repulsed, just about hold or make a few miserable advances in Donbas and take some of Zaporizhzhia and reduce Mariupol to rubble. That was with the element of surprise and massive personnel, tank, sea and air superiority. And it wasn't sufficient. Now they supposedly aim to do more without surprise or superiority in personnel or tanks and the airforce and navy are confined largely to base. They are running low at the front and they know Ukraine is all the time getting more weapons and better weapons. They need a serious reserve just to counter the inevitable Ukrainian offensives.

If they stockpile shells in Ukraine, Ukraine has excellent human intelligence on the ground spotting them and excellent intelligence from NATO etc. plus the partizans or missile delivery to take these ammo dumps out. If they stockpile them in Russia they have to get them to the front and Ukraine have been targeting supply lines really effectively - railways cut, trains taken out, Russia is really low on trucks now - as well as some ammo depots hit.

As to why Ukraine aren't smashing through, well they were in Kharkiv and Kherson, then came the mud and the winter. Then Russia, instead of being rational and holding defensive positions have actually been wastefully attacking. Meanwhile Ukraine is stockpiling like Monty at Alamein.
 
zzzzz said:
If they do drop a stray missile into Poland God help them.

3 Generations away from the atrocities commited by Russians in Poland and still they wait for revenge.

One thing I don't get........ if the Russians have no ammo, are very badly trianed, supply lines cut, completely demoralised etc etc.... why aren't the Ukrianians smashing through them with ease?

It's not all as it's painted for sure. See Soledar.

I'm still though lost within admiration for them. Still they die in their thousands and still they fight on.

Worth remembering and worth repeating

Ukraine population - 43million........ Russian population 143million
Ukraine GDP - 200BillionUSD ........... Russian GDP 1.8Trillion USD

Even taking into account the hardware help they've had..... it's miraculous.
Click to expand...

Soledar was the well funded and (aside from the prisoner element) reasonably well trained and equipped Wagner group, who had tried repeatedly to take Bkhmut and failed. They went North to Soledar as it was an easier target, less well defended (because it is strategically less important). I believe they did this to at least demonstrate some success. Unfortunately for Prigozhin, the regular army (ie. not mobiks) turned up and claimed the victory.

No-one said the Russians have no ammo ... patently they do, especially artillery. Though nowhere near what they had and what Ukraine now has. Russia has sent it's crack airborne division, along with tanks stolen from India to defend Kreminna. Kreminna IS strategically important and very well fortified ... but, as things stand, Ukraine's forces are slowly working their way in. It was always going to be a really tough battle.

You are right about Poland. As I understand it, they are itching to be allowed to go at Belarus.
 
Just got this.

"After Russia withdrew their remaining tanks from Kreminna it seems that things are going horribly wrong for them.
Russian command channels are filled with pleas to get permission to surrender, and about heavy fighting inside the city and Ukrainian forces fighting house to house both from the north and the south.
To the north it is heavy mechanized and tank battalions doing the clearing, it will not be pretty.

There are also soldiers pleading for their lives asking the barrier soldiers to stop killing them so they can get away.
High command answered by ordering them to hold inside Kreminna and that any Russian soldier who surrenders will be shot upon return, and issued a new order to kill any Russians trying to leave the city.
It is a horrendous bloodbath."

On a slightly less bloody note, Ukraine just took possession of their first T90S tanks outside Kreminna, courtesy of their most generous supplier (Moscow). Two in perfect working order and two easily repairable.
 
borolad259 said:
Just got this.

"After Russia withdrew their remaining tanks from Kreminna it seems that things are going horribly wrong for them.
Russian command channels are filled with pleas to get permission to surrender, and about heavy fighting inside the city and Ukrainian forces fighting house to house both from the north and the south.
To the north it is heavy mechanized and tank battalions doing the clearing, it will not be pretty.

There are also soldiers pleading for their lives asking the barrier soldiers to stop killing them so they can get away.
High command answered by ordering them to hold inside Kreminna and that any Russian soldier who surrenders will be shot upon return, and issued a new order to kill any Russians trying to leave the city.
It is a horrendous bloodbath."

On a slightly less bloody note, Ukraine just took possession of their first T90S tanks outside Kreminna, courtesy of their most generous supplier (Moscow). Two in perfect working order and two easily repairable.
Click to expand...
I saw a terrrible clip of a soldier stood over a foxhole with two sat in it and they refused to surrender. he even tried to grab the gun off one of them who refused to give it up. So he killed them both.
It's like watching a video game. Hard to believe its real.
Horrific, tragic and utterlry pointless unless you're a Ukrainian.
 
zzzzz said:
I saw a terrrible clip of a soldier stood over a foxhole with two sat in it and they refused to surrender. he even tried to grab the gun off one of them who refused to give it up. So he killed them both.
It's like watching a video game. Hard to believe its real.
Horrific, tragic and utterlry pointless unless you're a Ukrainian.
Click to expand...
That actually was a blue on blue, they were Russian soldiers in ukrainian uniform.
 
johnmfc said:
That actually was a blue on blue, they were Russian soldiers in ukrainian uniform.
Click to expand...
OMG was it really? That makes it even worse. I'll not sleep tonight.
I guess a complication of them speaking the same language
The horrors of war.
 
zzzzz said:
OMG was it really? That makes it even worse. I'll not sleep tonight.
I guess a complication of them speaking the same language
The horrors of war.
Click to expand...
It's also a breach of the Geneva convention. In the video the one is saying friendly friendly before he is shot. Also the other guy is unarmed and shot also against the Geneva convention, but I don't think the wagners care too much about that.
 
Subbuteo_171 said:
Any thoughts from your man on whether they'd go nuclear?
Click to expand...

Unlikely. That would be the end of Russia. They have repeatedly stated, internally and internationally that they won't use nuclear weapons.

It's not impossible, but unlikely. They have their hands full with Ukraine without getting the rest of the world on their case.
 
Last night's update

"For a week Russian media and Telegram channels have touted the life changing press conference that Putin would hold today, with loads of rumours abounding about the given topic "Ending the Special Military Operation".
Some thought he would call it quits.
Some though he would call for mobilisation, mass or partial.

Instead we got him stating that he was forced to attack Ukraine to save Ukrainians from being killed by Ukrainians due to the Collective West and NATO.
He also stated that all was going fine again after the glorious victory in Soledar after the war being hard in the last 6 months, and that the rest of Donbass would be occupied, but he pointedly stated that there was no timeframe on that goal.
In other words, it was a giant arsed "meh".

Mobify
I find it interesting that Russia is not mobilising as per now.
Instead they are slowly grabbing a few here and there to fill up the empty positions after Russicles and Killed.
This speaks into the assumption that Russia is low on critical weapon systems, even those like AK-47s.

This is interesting in as much as there has always been a worry that we are wrong about Russia running out of artillery shells, and that is why the artillery barrages are becoming smaller and fewer apart.
Currently the Russian average is down to below 5000 shells per day, most days as low as 2500, from the staggering 40 000 rounds per day average prior.
Instead there was the possibility that Russia somehow was hoarding their resources for a large upcoming advance.
But, we are not really seeing that level of transports any longer.
The third option is that Russia still has a huge stash, but that their strained logistics no longer can handle delivering them due to all the broken down and derailed trains and destroyed trucks.
There's probably quite a bit of all 3 to varying degrees.

Swedens contribution
For some reason the upcoming package does not include the tanks that are already sitting on a train set.
Instead they are being offloaded and CV90s are being loaded instead for delivery.
The CV90s are the Overlord of Armoured Combat Vehicles with it's rapid fire 40mm Bofors gun. It carries the hottest and latest in western electronics and is by far more superior than all the other combat vehicles sent to Ukraine.
As such they are a substantial force multiplyer.
There's also mortar versions, and Air Defence versions available.
It will be interesting to see what mix is sent.
Around 1 million rounds of 40mm will be sent, that is about 10 percent of our stash.
How many will we send? Yet unknown, but we have loads of them, and we are right now buying an entirely new version of them that are light tanks, the incredible Ghost T120, so we could send up to a Brigades worth of them and still have all we need.

Archers will be on the trains going after.
The reason is that the ones that will be sent are the ones Norway had ordered, but last minute cancelled.
They have been mothballed since, and is now at the factory to get the latest upgrades before being sent out, this will not take a long time.
It was said that there would be 12 of them, but all 24 are being prepped, so I guess there will be two waves of them sent.
There will also be a severe draw-down of artillery shells. 250 000 shells of Basebleed Long Range (30km), Bonus (35km guided) and Excaliburs (50km guided precission) will be sent. That is 25 percent of our entire stash. We do not have the standard range NATO type.

Leopard II SE, these will technically be in the next package and will be sent on the third wave of trains.
There's a fight here that is entirely different than in let us say Germany.
Everyone and the cat wants to send them, and send a lot.
But, the army is really kicking up a fuss. The reason is that we only have 120 in total, and all of them are in active units today.
We have one Brigade in Gotland, one here next to me, and one up north.
Problem is that it will take years to get new tanks, and we obviously really need them to hold the line in case Russia does something particularly stupid.
And when Swedes get stuck with oil and water and a need to mix it up, Swedes revert to a lot of debating.

Two solutions are being discussed.
To do a limited draw-down of the brigade sizes, thus freeing either 12 or 24 of them, and then kickstarting an entirely new production run of Swedish MBTs while beefing things with the Ghosts that are slowly dripping in.
The second option is to go and be muscular on Scholz the flipflop man, buy back the Block 4s that we leased previously from Germany. Or buy Abrams and donate to Ukraine.

We really need every tank we have to be able to defend the Baltic States and Gotland as per our obligations, but at the same time we want to send all we have to Ukraine.

In Swedish fashion a compromise will be reached, and fairly fast.
My guess is 12 of our and we pay for 12-24 more from someone else's stash.
For the time being the CV90s will beef up Ukraine a lot, I know that the Ukrainians who trained on them drooled all over them.
So, sort of a Swedish "meh" for the time being until a consensus is reached.

However.
I almost missed this one.
The SAAB GLSDB will be deployed to Ukraine.
This is definitely a Hell Class Weapon.
Think a 150km range GMLRS, but with a sizeable bomb as a pay load, but at the same time it is a supersonic cruise missile with capability of picking targets independantly.
Never leave Swedish elderly men in the garage alone, then some horror like this comes out.
This weapon system is so new that not even we have it yet. Ours are going straight to Ukraine.
Even in the limited initial numbers it is a complete deathblow to the Russian war effort.

Kreminna/Svatove
Upon entering the city from the north our intrepid colonel sent half of the tanks to clatter back towards Svatove from Kreminna.
She has repainted a T90S and is now using it as her personal tank and named it Dynya (Melon in Ukrainian).
Kreminna is still a blood bath with many wounded Russians taken prisoner, and with many killed.
Some of them are as young as 16.
The confirmation of child soldiers are telling of Russias manpower (childpower) problems, calling in younglings is always a sign of utter desperation.

The addition of more tanks on the Svatove front is turning the tide over there too pushing the defence line the entire way to the breaking point for the Russians.
When the battles for Kreminna and Svatove are open there will be a huge gash for Ukraine to pour through.

Soledar
Ukraine has reinforced the new lines with fresh troops and artillery and are shelling the Russians hard.
This has stopped the Russian advance completely.
At the same time it turns out that the Ukrainians are using the mines under the city for raids and attacks inside the occupied city, using entrance tunnels that are outside the Russian held area. The furtherest away tunnel opening is apparently 2km behind the current Ukrainian defence line.
The Russians are none to happy about it, but they sort of walked into that trap on their own.

Bakhmut
Russia is trying to encircle the city for the 62nd time (or some such), it is not working out particularly well.
The carnage just continues there for no apparent good reason.

Donetsk
Interestingly enough a lot of positional fighting has broken out from Avdivka downwards along the Donetsk line to Vuhledar.
It began with limited Russian attacks around Avdivka, but Ukraine pushed back very hard along the entire line creating a grey zone.
I do not think that Russia thought Ukraine had that size of forces there.
I have always found this part suspicious, it would be one hell of a win for the Ukrainians.
After Crimea taking Donetsk is number two on the list of potential Russian political disasters.
And, right now it is the easier target of the two.
Going down South in Zhaporizhzhia has always been jaring to me, it could be that it right now is the Kherson equivalent for the Kharkiv offensive.
Ie, that Ukraine is talking up Zhaporizhzhia for a real attack on Donetsk.

Zhaporizhzhia
Faint or not, today Ukraine launched lots of attacks there towards Berdyansk and Tokmak.
If I am right it will be the secondary target for Ukraine, and then they will need to bleed as many Russians as possible to create a real Kherson situation.
We will know better soon.

Kinburn Spit
Strelkov the Russian Gerkin made a mistake yesterday.
To the utmost surprise of everyone he said that the frontline ran from the foot of the Kinburn Spit all the way up to Luhansk.
That was a jaw dropper.
Everyone and Tuthmosis II of Egypt assumed that Ukraine had left the Kinburn as winter came.
Turns out that Strelkov was right and all the Western intelligence agencies was dead wrong on this.
Mostly because we never checked and never asked the Ukrainians.
As satelite images was hastily checked soldiers was found well dug down, and even some heavier gear that the Ukrainians had barged across, including a few 155mm artillery pieces.
I find it highly intriguing that the Russians have not been able to push them out by now.

Conclusion
I think we can safely call off any large Russian offensive now.
It is though likely that they will try somethind from Southeastern Belarus, potentially involving the Belarusians.
This will obviously not work.
Neither the offensive, nor the war.
Leaving the momentum and initially so heavily skewered in the direction of Ukraine is a sure way of losing.

Ukraine has been really good at spreading the pain out across the entire frontline for the Russians, giving no real inkling to their intentions.
Luhansk will be a part of it, they have the momentum there, and the possibility to liberate it all before summer with just some additional troops.

I do not believe right now in Northern Donetsk Oblast.
This leaves 3 options for the Ukrainian Spring Offensive.
Donetsk City, big political win, and hurting the supply routes there.
Zhaporizhzhia, taking Melitopol, Tokmak and Berdyansk, would set the stage for either Mariupol or Kherson in the summer offensive.
The third option that I can see is Kherson directly, it is far from impossible for Ukraine to go across the river.
It would explain the meticulous picking apart of the Russian positions across Kherson, and would explain holding on to Kinburn.
The third option is what I would do since it would put Crimea directly into the crossfire.

Then there is the Northern option, it is currently the least likely for political reasons.
But taking Belgorod and Kursk would be an incredible loss for Russia, and it would cause internal chaos.
At the same time there is the risk that Russia would rally behind the leadership.
So no, this will wait until last if Russia does not sue for peace after being expelled from all of Ukraine.

So, here is my (current) take.
If Russia attacks from the North out of Belarus they will be occupying the large Northern Army of Ukraine for months.
If they do not and move out forces this army will swing down and hit Kherson.
In this scenario Ukraine would roar down and start picking apart the lock to Crimea for an upcoming summer offensive there.

But, if Russia does the attack towards Lviv two thing will happen.
The first is an increased push in Luhansk, and an attack north and south of Donetsk City to encircle it.
In this scenario Ukraine would then start to blow up large chunks of Donetsk prior to the Summer campaign taking it.

Obviously Ukraine will do something completely different and take Rostov-on-Don or some such."
 
How's Putin getting on if he was poisoned a few months ago assuming he has made some sort of recovery if it is the real deal we are hearing and seeing at the moment?
 
Fattyfoggon said:
How's Putin getting on if he was poisoned a few months ago assuming he has made some sort of recovery if it is the real deal we are hearing and seeing at the moment?
Click to expand...

AFAIK he is still unwell but has had several major operations and is on all kinds of meds. He still hasn't left Sochi, which is why you only see real Putin on video calls. Even then he is somewhat incoherent at times. As for the content of yesterday's much heralded speach, it was clearly a bit on the weird side. There must be a sizeable chunk of the population that understands that it's largely delusional, given the fact that Strelkov and others are telling it as it is ... and a good many families are losing loved ones. Muscovites will not be used to seeing new arrays of air defence missiles sited around the city.
 
Well, the Swedes, for whom prevarication is a national sport, have already sorted their side out ahead of Rammstein tomorrow. Hopefully it is the lead that others (hello Germany) will follow.

"Well, that was much faster than I expected.
A consensus has been reached in the land of IKEAns.
Today it was made official (after late night negotiations with the army, FMV and the Defence Committee of the Parliament) that the following will be in the package.
  1. BAE SYSTEMS CV90 latest mod, 50 of them. This is in firepower equal to roughly 200 Bradley's. It is the by far most capable Armoured Combat Vehivle in existance. Included is 500 000 rounds of ordinance, repair kits, spare barrels, support technicians, etcetera.
  2. Robot 57 NLAW, 2000 NLAWs for immediate delivery to Ukraine, these are the CV90 mounted type.
  3. 24 Archer platforms, including 250 000 shells. 200 000 Basebleed longrange, 99 000 Bonus extended range guided precission, and a whopping 1 000 Excaliburs (they are shart expensive).
  4. SAAB GLSDB 150 km cruise missile system.
But what is actually more important is the Weapons Procurement Deal announced between Sweden and Ukraine.
Sweden will assist Ukraine with additional weapons that Sweden will buy for Sweden and Lendlease to Ukraine.
This is typical Swedish naughtiness. This way we can buy tanks from let us say the US, South Korea, or Leqlercs from another country, and send to Ukraine. It most likely will be Abrams M1 Sep 3s.
It also opens up for Lendleasing aircraft to Ukraine.
It also included a preferential treatment clause for Ukraine in regards of purchases of Swedish weapons systems on a lendlease basis. Ie., Ukraine goes first on the very long list of customers.
This is important since it covers point 4 above and SAAB are the only ones producing them at a rate of 250 per month.
Obviously all of this is top shelf stuff or pure Hell Class.

This also includes a permission for a draw-down of up to 50 percent of our ammo stocks, and a lowering of offensive capacity.
To cover this a new ordinance factory is opening in March, and extension at BAE in Northern Sweden just opened, and SAAB opens a new factory late February.

There will also be a new tank program started by BAE and SAAB. But this is not really part of this. It is just that we have realised that we can't in any way, shape, or form, trust the Germans with our weapons production.
Also, the Leopard II is starting to be a bit long in the tooth, it is basically an early 70s design and we want something that is superior to whatever is out there.
It will be a multipurpose MBT that is modular in design, and based preferably on a 130mm autogun from Bofors, sidestepping Rhinemetal but able to use NATO 130mm. If this is not possible the 120mm autoloader will be updated into an autogun.
It will though take about 10 years to field it from now.

Anyway, the package will put pressure on everyone else to match it."

And here's some fun on the side. Uncle Luka appearing to promise the earth while promising diddly squat. Lavrov's hangdog expression gets a bit glowery.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616004095214587912
 
borolad259 said:
Well, the Swedes, for whom prevarication is a national sport,
Click to expand...

8 people shipwrecked on an island.
2 Finns
2 Danes
2 Norwegians
2 Swedes
Recovered enough tools to build some sort of a boat to escape.
The Finns said we will design it
The Danes said we will build it
The Norwegians said we will sail it.
Meanwhile the 2 Swedes were hanging about, waiting to be formally introduced to each other.
 
Ziggy said:
8 people shipwrecked on an island.
2 Finns
2 Danes
2 Norwegians
2 Swedes
Recovered enough tools to build some sort of a boat to escape.
The Finns said we will design it
The Danes said we will build it
The Norwegians said we will sail it.
Meanwhile the 2 Swedes were hanging about, waiting to be formally introduced to each other.
Click to expand...

This takes us a bit off topic, but the first time we were invited round to friends' for dinner in Sweden, the clash of UK etiquette ("after you") and Swedish etiquette ("guests serve themselves and begin eating first") led to a sort of Mexican stand off with 14 people sitting around a table, staring at a beautiful Salmon in the middle, for about 15 minutes. Eventually, one of the Swedish family said "for God sake, will you eat something, we're all starving".
 
borolad259 said:
Mobify
I find it interesting that Russia is not mobilising as per now.
Instead they are slowly grabbing a few here and there to fill up the empty positions after Russicles and Killed.
This speaks into the assumption that Russia is low on critical weapon systems, even those like AK-47s.

This is interesting in as much as there has always been a worry that we are wrong about Russia running out of artillery shells, and that is why the artillery barrages are becoming smaller and fewer apart.
Currently the Russian average is down to below 5000 shells per day, most days as low as 2500, from the staggering 40 000 rounds per day average prior.
Instead there was the possibility that Russia somehow was hoarding their resources for a large upcoming advance.
But, we are not really seeing that level of transports any longer.
The third option is that Russia still has a huge stash, but that their strained logistics no longer can handle delivering them due to all the broken down and derailed trains and destroyed trucks.
There's probably quite a bit of all 3 to varying degrees.
Click to expand...

This has been what I've been worried about.

Logic and all the signs point towards Russia running out of shells, but it's one of those things it is probably impossible to get an absolute fix on the reality.

You've got Russian secrecy, Russian propaganda, Russian deception, Russian incompetence, Russian corruption, current Russian manufacturing capability, current Russian procurement capability (black market plus secretive countries like North Korea and Iran), Ukrainian sabotage, the war so far and the level of essential reserves Russia consider a minimum to keep for defence of all its massive borders elsewhere (plus internal unrest) to factor in before you have a hope of working out what they still have available to use in 2023 against Ukraine.

Without an actual accurate physical stocktake that western intelligence gets access to, all you can really do is look at the signs, but even then Russian stupidity has been so amazingly massive this campaign, while Russian secrecy and propaganda has continued to be as considerable as it always was, that it is impossible to have a lot of confidence common sense, logic and reason will give you the right answer.
 
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