The end?

You'd clap enthusiastically if you could feel the draft of an open window behind you.

You will not see anything overt in such show pieces.
 
JackG said:
We tend to view our political leaders through a sort of vote-maximising lens, subject to at least some moral or ethical constraint. Bill Browder argues that this is inappropriate for Putin; He's a mafia don. He can't show any sign of weakness or he's finished. When in difficulties he reaches for the dictator's playbook - create or amplify an external enemy and go to war.
Warning: the linked article is excellent but I'm afraid it appears in the Mail
Click to expand...

I'm not going to disagree with the excellent Bill Browder, but Putin was far from weak domestically when he invaded.

Something made this urgent. It may just be that it was something he always intended, needed to do it when Trump wasn't in power and saw Biden/Democrats as weak after Obama in Syria and Biden in Afghanistan. Add to that Zelensky moving toward NATO and the EU and against internal corruption in order to get there, that he had to wait until after covid had died away and he didn't want to upset the Chinese leaders by invading during a China Olympics again. So this was possibly the only window/best opportunity to carry out his desire.
 
errm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.


"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
 
borolad259 said:
errm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.


"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
Click to expand...
I hope that he never starts a new career as a crossword compiler! 😜
 
borolad259 said:
errm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.


"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
Click to expand...
So, between 24th and 28th February, the Russians are going to get battered in Transnistria? Or am I decrypting this completely wrong?
 
borolad259 said:
errm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.


"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
Click to expand...

Sounds like the usual well thought out planning from Ukraine. This is a war about logistics. They are taking care of a potential distraction in the rear, so they can bring all their forces to bear unhindered later. Meanwhile the whittling down of the enemy as they make their rash attacks against tough targets in difficult terrain and disrupting supply.
 
borolad259 said:
errm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.


"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
Click to expand...
I assume the Russians will already know this and he has not let the cat out the bag
 
johnmfc said:
I've seen a few comments on twitter, saying that Ukraine look ready to strike transnistria.
Click to expand...

I think it will depend upon the right weather and the willingness of the Moldovans to act. They know that they were next after Ukraine in Putin's broader plan though, so are keen to have the West's backing. For that to happen, they have to remove Russia from Transnistria. It sounds as though a lot is happening diplomatically behind the scenes.
 
So, China ...

"
While the Transnistrians are fleeing into Moldova infront of the attack, there are things moving on the negotiation side.
So, let us concentrate on the Chinese instead of the milling Trans shall we.

Chinas 12 step peace plan was actually not half bad as a starting point for negotiations.
Especially the first point clarifying that a states national borders must be respected and that the Helsinki Accord is sacrosanct.
Basically this can be shortened down to: "Sod off Baldric", with Russia being the Baldric.
There is not a word on Russia getting to keep anything, not even Crimea.

There are clauses on Russia in return getting lessened sanctions if they crawl back home, and China giving them security guarantees.

So, here is the real question, can China twist the arm of Russia hard enough to get them to agree?
And secondly, can China get EU/US/Ukraine to sign off on it?
Let me begin in reverse order.

Ukraine has been promised that China will share equal burden with EU/US on the civilian rebuilding part, favoured status, and security assurances. Carrot.
The US got the, if you stop a good peace treaty and make us look like idiots we will deliver drones and weapons to Russia. Stick.
The EU, much more cautious and direct. More of let us be the grownups in the room and do this, and negotiate further between us on other things after. "Be friends please".

So... Russia.
It is clear that Russia has accepted something along this line already.
And here there has been powerful sticks and carrots involved.
We can only speculate what that would be, but probably along these lines.
Sign or we will sanction or even take parts of Russia.
Sign and we will give you a Marshal Plan of our own.
Sign and we will help to rearm you.

Russia is done, and they know it. They also have no clue on how to get out of their mess.
So, China stepping in getting them a survivable peace... it is about as good as it gets for Russia.
This also explains why Russia has been behaving so meekly since New Years.
Beside the non-ability to escalate further, they also do not want to get in the way of the Chinese.
They also want to avoid a humiliating upcoming defeat on the battlefield.

For China this would be groundbreaking.
It would set them up as an equal to the EU and the US in the world pecking order.
In Chinese eyes they would end up slightly behind the EU and slightly infront of the US.
Chinese do count these things differently than the US.
Not so much on military hardware, and more on softpower and trade.
China does not care about running half the show, they are happy at least for now with a third of the show.
And Russia served them the perfect opportunity to reach this goal due to bungling their war, and China has been going for this goal for more than 70 years now.

If China can pull this one off, it is a diplomatic coup."
 
sounds encouraging, but it feels like we have been here before where there are signs that it could really be coming to an end then 6 months later the war is still raging and it feels like we are no closer, guess time will tell and fingers crossed and all that!
 
Last edited:
borolad259 said:
So, China ...

"
While the Transnistrians are fleeing into Moldova infront of the attack, there are things moving on the negotiation side.
So, let us concentrate on the Chinese instead of the milling Trans shall we.

Chinas 12 step peace plan was actually not half bad as a starting point for negotiations.
Especially the first point clarifying that a states national borders must be respected and that the Helsinki Accord is sacrosanct.
Basically this can be shortened down to: "Sod off Baldric", with Russia being the Baldric.
There is not a word on Russia getting to keep anything, not even Crimea.

There are clauses on Russia in return getting lessened sanctions if they crawl back home, and China giving them security guarantees.

So, here is the real question, can China twist the arm of Russia hard enough to get them to agree?
And secondly, can China get EU/US/Ukraine to sign off on it?
Let me begin in reverse order.

Ukraine has been promised that China will share equal burden with EU/US on the civilian rebuilding part, favoured status, and security assurances. Carrot.
The US got the, if you stop a good peace treaty and make us look like idiots we will deliver drones and weapons to Russia. Stick.
The EU, much more cautious and direct. More of let us be the grownups in the room and do this, and negotiate further between us on other things after. "Be friends please".

So... Russia.
It is clear that Russia has accepted something along this line already.
And here there has been powerful sticks and carrots involved.
We can only speculate what that would be, but probably along these lines.
Sign or we will sanction or even take parts of Russia.
Sign and we will give you a Marshal Plan of our own.
Sign and we will help to rearm you.

Russia is done, and they know it. They also have no clue on how to get out of their mess.
So, China stepping in getting them a survivable peace... it is about as good as it gets for Russia.
This also explains why Russia has been behaving so meekly since New Years.
Beside the non-ability to escalate further, they also do not want to get in the way of the Chinese.
They also want to avoid a humiliating upcoming defeat on the battlefield.

For China this would be groundbreaking.
It would set them up as an equal to the EU and the US in the world pecking order.
In Chinese eyes they would end up slightly behind the EU and slightly infront of the US.
Chinese do count these things differently than the US.
Not so much on military hardware, and more on softpower and trade.
China does not care about running half the show, they are happy at least for now with a third of the show.
And Russia served them the perfect opportunity to reach this goal due to bungling their war, and China has been going for this goal for more than 70 years now.

If China can pull this one off, it is a diplomatic coup."
Click to expand...
At least China sound like they are aiming for win - win agreements with lasting benefits. Be interesting to see if the hawks on all sides can get their heads around that type of approach to stop the loss of lives.
 
Absolutely no chance whatsoever is Russia willingly agreeing to a peace treaty where they withdraw from everywhere they're occupying in return for sanctions being lifted.

They'll have to be removed like a tick.
 
TeaCider said:
Absolutely no chance whatsoever is Russia willingly agreeing to a peace treaty where they withdraw from everywhere they're occupying in return for sanctions being lifted.

They'll have to be removed like a tick.
Click to expand...

Not much can be predicted with any certainty in any war, including this one.
 
borolad259 said:
So, China ...

"
While the Transnistrians are fleeing into Moldova infront of the attack, there are things moving on the negotiation side.
So, let us concentrate on the Chinese instead of the milling Trans shall we.

Chinas 12 step peace plan was actually not half bad as a starting point for negotiations.
Especially the first point clarifying that a states national borders must be respected and that the Helsinki Accord is sacrosanct.
Basically this can be shortened down to: "Sod off Baldric", with Russia being the Baldric.
There is not a word on Russia getting to keep anything, not even Crimea.

There are clauses on Russia in return getting lessened sanctions if they crawl back home, and China giving them security guarantees.

So, here is the real question, can China twist the arm of Russia hard enough to get them to agree?
And secondly, can China get EU/US/Ukraine to sign off on it?
Let me begin in reverse order.

Ukraine has been promised that China will share equal burden with EU/US on the civilian rebuilding part, favoured status, and security assurances. Carrot.
The US got the, if you stop a good peace treaty and make us look like idiots we will deliver drones and weapons to Russia. Stick.
The EU, much more cautious and direct. More of let us be the grownups in the room and do this, and negotiate further between us on other things after. "Be friends please".

So... Russia.
It is clear that Russia has accepted something along this line already.
And here there has been powerful sticks and carrots involved.
We can only speculate what that would be, but probably along these lines.
Sign or we will sanction or even take parts of Russia.
Sign and we will give you a Marshal Plan of our own.
Sign and we will help to rearm you.

Russia is done, and they know it. They also have no clue on how to get out of their mess.
So, China stepping in getting them a survivable peace... it is about as good as it gets for Russia.
This also explains why Russia has been behaving so meekly since New Years.
Beside the non-ability to escalate further, they also do not want to get in the way of the Chinese.
They also want to avoid a humiliating upcoming defeat on the battlefield.

For China this would be groundbreaking.
It would set them up as an equal to the EU and the US in the world pecking order.
In Chinese eyes they would end up slightly behind the EU and slightly infront of the US.
Chinese do count these things differently than the US.
Not so much on military hardware, and more on softpower and trade.
China does not care about running half the show, they are happy at least for now with a third of the show.
And Russia served them the perfect opportunity to reach this goal due to bungling their war, and China has been going for this goal for more than 70 years now.

If China can pull this one off, it is a diplomatic coup."
Click to expand...

Encouraging.

So the recent spy balloon hoo-ha has had no real impact and the Chinese visit is simply part of the plan and process to get Russia to sign on the dotted line?

I wonder if part of the Chinese visit is just to see if the real Putin is still alive/healthy/in charge. If a double turns up, that is significant and quite a gamble on the insult front.

We've got the USA, EU, Russia and China. Normally any expectations that things would move quickly would be naive. The USA can move fast, but the EU is often validly criticised for not moving quickly. The Russians are chess players and they are known for long term strategic planning, while the Chinese think in centuries, not years or decades.

However, spring is coming, Western armaments are coming to Ukraine. This puts time pressure on Russia as a military humiliation and complete destruction that can't be hidden is probably only 3-8 months away.
 
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