The end?
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Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
This is the alleged/reported Chinese peace plan for Ukraine(seen from various accounts and sources on twitter). Apparently it has been rejected outright by Ukraine. How true this is I don't know just thought I would share what I have read and seen.
It will be way more nuanced, I'm pretty certain of that.
Millbrook
Well-known member
Under this plan who would govern the DM?
Sort of responjse to questions...
"I agree, as it was stated it is not optimal, and it will need to be modified.
And also, it is about China getting what it wants.
But, as I understood 1 it was the original borders that was intended.
And, as interpreted 2 is that the world should be more multifacetted than the previous dual axis/two-power version. In this China has a very good point, we are now seeing several powers vying for power, EU, US, China, India, parts of Africa, Southern America... Question is more how a new world order we be, than that it will become a fact in the end.
Point 12, here I have a different point of view than most.
Leaving Russia in a mindset like Germany after the first world war, would not be good and might build a century of further conflicts and revanchism.
But, the devil is in the details. Leaving China to their own devices would not be good for anyone except China.
Ukraine, The West, nor Russia itself would benefit from it.
How in the name of Heck we could pull off creating a democratic and liberal Russia and rebuild that, is a problem I leave over to the brains of people like Stubb and Bildt... They are the masters on that, I am just good at knowing how to blow crap up.
What I take away from it is that it is a Starting Point to negotiate from.
Especially if this is based on what China can get Russia to agree on.
Because until now we have only had Ukraines Peace Plan.
And, a negotiated peace will require that both sides state their initial positions.
Why am I still saying that there will need to be a negotiated peace, even though I am convinced that Ukraine will be able to shove Russia out?
The Stubborn Donkey future...
Without a peace agreement would put a stopper in that.
Will it be the Chinese proposal?
I do not think so, it is to far off from Ukraines position.
But, Ukraine will probably have to swallow a few bitter pills too...
Anyway, since I am certain that Russia is willing/has been forced, to accept a deal along the chinese lines, we now know that there is an opening for a future peace negotiation/deal.
The Stubborn Donkey option is just to horrible. Russia just going on and on with missiles and feeble offensives, while at the same time Ukraine will never be able to take all of Russia... You see where I am going with this, because in the end the west would grow tired.
The West will not grow tired prior to Russia being kicked out, but after that we would get two countries grinding each other down into nothingness, it is not an option for Ukraine. Nor is it really for Russia, but they are crazy and like pain so...
It will though be interesting to follow what the West will answer, and how it will be handled.
In the meantime Ukraines negotiation position will only improve in the coming weeks and months, the better they can perform on the battlefield, the better they will do at the negotiation table."
"I agree, as it was stated it is not optimal, and it will need to be modified.
And also, it is about China getting what it wants.
But, as I understood 1 it was the original borders that was intended.
And, as interpreted 2 is that the world should be more multifacetted than the previous dual axis/two-power version. In this China has a very good point, we are now seeing several powers vying for power, EU, US, China, India, parts of Africa, Southern America... Question is more how a new world order we be, than that it will become a fact in the end.
Point 12, here I have a different point of view than most.
Leaving Russia in a mindset like Germany after the first world war, would not be good and might build a century of further conflicts and revanchism.
But, the devil is in the details. Leaving China to their own devices would not be good for anyone except China.
Ukraine, The West, nor Russia itself would benefit from it.
How in the name of Heck we could pull off creating a democratic and liberal Russia and rebuild that, is a problem I leave over to the brains of people like Stubb and Bildt... They are the masters on that, I am just good at knowing how to blow crap up.
What I take away from it is that it is a Starting Point to negotiate from.
Especially if this is based on what China can get Russia to agree on.
Because until now we have only had Ukraines Peace Plan.
And, a negotiated peace will require that both sides state their initial positions.
Why am I still saying that there will need to be a negotiated peace, even though I am convinced that Ukraine will be able to shove Russia out?
The Stubborn Donkey future...
Without a peace agreement would put a stopper in that.
Will it be the Chinese proposal?
I do not think so, it is to far off from Ukraines position.
But, Ukraine will probably have to swallow a few bitter pills too...
Anyway, since I am certain that Russia is willing/has been forced, to accept a deal along the chinese lines, we now know that there is an opening for a future peace negotiation/deal.
The Stubborn Donkey option is just to horrible. Russia just going on and on with missiles and feeble offensives, while at the same time Ukraine will never be able to take all of Russia... You see where I am going with this, because in the end the west would grow tired.
The West will not grow tired prior to Russia being kicked out, but after that we would get two countries grinding each other down into nothingness, it is not an option for Ukraine. Nor is it really for Russia, but they are crazy and like pain so...
It will though be interesting to follow what the West will answer, and how it will be handled.
In the meantime Ukraines negotiation position will only improve in the coming weeks and months, the better they can perform on the battlefield, the better they will do at the negotiation table."
Chinese plan
"In regards of the Chinese peace proposal there are a lot of unhelpful speculation, and outright disinformation being spread around.
I have now read a copy of the real one, and I am amazed at all the horsemanure being liberally sprinkled everywhere.
The bullet-point list is correct, but it is just bullet-points, and the points need quite a bit of explanation to be understandable.
There are claims that Russia would get to keep everything they have now, totally not in the proposal.
It clearly states that Russia has to leave.
There are also claims that everything west of Dnipro River would have to be demilitarized, also not true. It clearly states that it is up to Ukraine to keep troops there.
What is mentioned as a suggestion is that there will be a DMZ of 1000 meters, 500 meters into both countries, to be patrolled by peacekeepers appointed by UN. It clearly states that this would have to be approved by both sides.
Ukraine is free to join the EU and NATO if they wish, unlike what is spread around. China directly notes that Ukraine is in the western sphere.
Sanctions are to be removed according to a set scale of Russian cooperation, the scale is to be negotiated. It clearly mentions that it is up to the EU to trade with Russia as the EU sees fit.
Then there are a few points that is more Chinas hopes and wishes.
They want to move away from the previous Dualistic East/West world-order into a multi-axis and multi-power world. This is outside of the scope that will end up in an agreement, I think it is more China putting forth the issue. Partially I agree with them since China and India and others deserve more of the sunshine... but it is for the future. I and Carl see this as a talking point for the future, but that China will really want some sort of forum to discuss this in the near future.
Rebuilding - China will send cash to Ukraine, they merely write that they hope that China will get a fair share of materials and machinery contracts in open bids. In regards of Russia it mentions the parts of Russia hit hardest by losses in the war. This part is extremely interesting.
Russia should really read this part carefully. The high loss parts are almost all bordering China, so basically China want to invest there, and gain in influence as they go. It would really make eastern Russia into a vassal state of China.
In a previous discussion with the EU, China openly talked about the Chinese and the EU spheres of Influence of former -stans and eastern Europe.
If I read this carefully from that perspective I see an expansion of this idea of influence spheres.
I think China is hedging for a possible breaking up of Russia, with China taking officially the east, and them seeing the Western parts as inside EU sphere with a line up from Kazakhstan as neutral "bridges" between the two.
It is here important that China is not interested in the population as such, they have all the people they will ever need. But, they need a lot of new land and more resources. And the Far East is more than enough for China.
So, they are quite happy with "giving" away the rest to the EU.
This part is openly imperialistic from the Chinese, and I am shtumped that Russia does not seem to notice.
Another thing that is apparent, the proposal is filled with badly hidden contempt for the Russians, and the ******* do not understand that they would most likely get a better deal directly with the West.
So, basically Ukraine get everything they want with one exception. There is nothing about a war crimes tribunal in it.
Russia gets bumfucked by China, but does not have to pay for what they done, neither in cash, nor in prisson terms...
Anyway, as Zelenskyy said: "I am cautiously optimistic".
He would never have said that if he had to give up land, demilitarize, non-NATOfy, non-EUfy...
Worldwide
It is now clear that China has given up on even having civil relations with the US, and it is reciprocated.
Russia is a permanent hasbeen.
China is really trying to remain "friendly" with the EU and remain as a minimum a trading partner, but they definitely hope for more and are willing to do a lot to gain that.
I think that now the ball is firmly in EUs hands moving onwards into the future, and it is time that the EU start to act as a global power, or even The Global Power. Problem is that we need to figure out how we wish to be that, and to not forget who our real friends are as we seek out new possibilities.
Because in the end we are the worlds largest democracy, and as such we can do a lot of good.
I am now rambling... "
"In regards of the Chinese peace proposal there are a lot of unhelpful speculation, and outright disinformation being spread around.
I have now read a copy of the real one, and I am amazed at all the horsemanure being liberally sprinkled everywhere.
The bullet-point list is correct, but it is just bullet-points, and the points need quite a bit of explanation to be understandable.
There are claims that Russia would get to keep everything they have now, totally not in the proposal.
It clearly states that Russia has to leave.
There are also claims that everything west of Dnipro River would have to be demilitarized, also not true. It clearly states that it is up to Ukraine to keep troops there.
What is mentioned as a suggestion is that there will be a DMZ of 1000 meters, 500 meters into both countries, to be patrolled by peacekeepers appointed by UN. It clearly states that this would have to be approved by both sides.
Ukraine is free to join the EU and NATO if they wish, unlike what is spread around. China directly notes that Ukraine is in the western sphere.
Sanctions are to be removed according to a set scale of Russian cooperation, the scale is to be negotiated. It clearly mentions that it is up to the EU to trade with Russia as the EU sees fit.
Then there are a few points that is more Chinas hopes and wishes.
They want to move away from the previous Dualistic East/West world-order into a multi-axis and multi-power world. This is outside of the scope that will end up in an agreement, I think it is more China putting forth the issue. Partially I agree with them since China and India and others deserve more of the sunshine... but it is for the future. I and Carl see this as a talking point for the future, but that China will really want some sort of forum to discuss this in the near future.
Rebuilding - China will send cash to Ukraine, they merely write that they hope that China will get a fair share of materials and machinery contracts in open bids. In regards of Russia it mentions the parts of Russia hit hardest by losses in the war. This part is extremely interesting.
Russia should really read this part carefully. The high loss parts are almost all bordering China, so basically China want to invest there, and gain in influence as they go. It would really make eastern Russia into a vassal state of China.
In a previous discussion with the EU, China openly talked about the Chinese and the EU spheres of Influence of former -stans and eastern Europe.
If I read this carefully from that perspective I see an expansion of this idea of influence spheres.
I think China is hedging for a possible breaking up of Russia, with China taking officially the east, and them seeing the Western parts as inside EU sphere with a line up from Kazakhstan as neutral "bridges" between the two.
It is here important that China is not interested in the population as such, they have all the people they will ever need. But, they need a lot of new land and more resources. And the Far East is more than enough for China.
So, they are quite happy with "giving" away the rest to the EU.
This part is openly imperialistic from the Chinese, and I am shtumped that Russia does not seem to notice.
Another thing that is apparent, the proposal is filled with badly hidden contempt for the Russians, and the ******* do not understand that they would most likely get a better deal directly with the West.
So, basically Ukraine get everything they want with one exception. There is nothing about a war crimes tribunal in it.
Russia gets bumfucked by China, but does not have to pay for what they done, neither in cash, nor in prisson terms...
Anyway, as Zelenskyy said: "I am cautiously optimistic".
He would never have said that if he had to give up land, demilitarize, non-NATOfy, non-EUfy...
Worldwide
It is now clear that China has given up on even having civil relations with the US, and it is reciprocated.
Russia is a permanent hasbeen.
China is really trying to remain "friendly" with the EU and remain as a minimum a trading partner, but they definitely hope for more and are willing to do a lot to gain that.
I think that now the ball is firmly in EUs hands moving onwards into the future, and it is time that the EU start to act as a global power, or even The Global Power. Problem is that we need to figure out how we wish to be that, and to not forget who our real friends are as we seek out new possibilities.
Because in the end we are the worlds largest democracy, and as such we can do a lot of good.
I am now rambling... "
I can imagine this is exactly what the Chinese have proposed . In no way should be it be accepted either
I dont for a second believe China are trying to negotiate in good faith . They support Russia . It’s in their interests for Russia to gain land from this , as it will make it seem worthwhile to make a grab for Taiwan too .
The only way I can see some end to this is when that fascist **** Putin is dead . Hope he ends himself in a bunker like the last guy with an identical ilk before him
Randy
Well-known member
The longer it goes on the better for Russia.
There will come a point where NATO countries will stop supplying Ukraine with missiles.
BoroMart
Well-known member
that's one view, another is the longer it goes on the deeper damage to russias economy in the short, medium and long term.
So this is Girkin's take. And he is pretty much on the money, as usual. Russia can not carry on as they are, no matter what the politcal leadership wants/thinks/threatens.
He is, remember, a Russian nationalist. And he clearly still has some protection from someone in high places within the Moscow power struggle.
And the Chinese really are not going to start prolonging the war by supplying Russia with weapons. They really need to stay friendly with the EU.
He is, remember, a Russian nationalist. And he clearly still has some protection from someone in high places within the Moscow power struggle.
And the Chinese really are not going to start prolonging the war by supplying Russia with weapons. They really need to stay friendly with the EU.
BoroMart
Well-known member
And of course the reputational damage to China would be immense if they did this and the financial damage to Russia would be decades long from a lend-lease arrangement for the amount of military equipment required. No one is going to be paying russia reparations in fact russia may well be under further embargo’s beyond the end of the war
“The bullet-point list is correct, but it is just bullet-points, and the points need quite a bit of explanation to be understandable.
There are claims that Russia would get to keep everything they have now, totally not in the proposal.
It clearly states that Russia has to leave.
There are also claims that everything west of Dnipro River would have to be demilitarized, also not true. It clearly states that it is up to Ukraine to keep troops there.”
What exactly does it say in relation to Russia having to leave?
I have seen several publications of the full transcript which don’t mention this and several world leaders, including Ukrainians don’t seem to be aware of this level of detail.
There are claims that Russia would get to keep everything they have now, totally not in the proposal.
It clearly states that Russia has to leave.
There are also claims that everything west of Dnipro River would have to be demilitarized, also not true. It clearly states that it is up to Ukraine to keep troops there.”
What exactly does it say in relation to Russia having to leave?
I have seen several publications of the full transcript which don’t mention this and several world leaders, including Ukrainians don’t seem to be aware of this level of detail.
I don't know what it says myself but, given that he works directly with the major players who do the negotiating on these matters, I'd guess he's more clued up than most people on the internet.
That's China's position on their foreign affairs web site. Not the same as a peace plan/proposition. And, point 1 on that page is a fairly straight forward way of saying "get out of the territory you invaded".
“And, point 1 on that page is a fairly straight forward way of saying "get out of the territory you invaded".
That’s the whole point for me, China have been making the same equivocal point about sovereignty for the past year - there is nothing new here.
They have also spoken about the need to address Russia’s concerns about their own security due to their perception of NATO expansion.
At no point have they criticised Russia or said they should withdraw their troops.
It’s also worth noting that the G20 recently failed to agree a statement condemning Russia’s actions, as China would not agree to criticise them.
It is however positive that China are at least talking about trying to find a peaceful settlement.
This conflict will eventually end with some sort of negotiated settlement so the sooner that can be reached the better for everyone.
I’m sure Zelensky sees that and he obviously wants to stop Russia from attacking his country so he is understandably keen to speak to China.
That’s the whole point for me, China have been making the same equivocal point about sovereignty for the past year - there is nothing new here.
They have also spoken about the need to address Russia’s concerns about their own security due to their perception of NATO expansion.
At no point have they criticised Russia or said they should withdraw their troops.
It’s also worth noting that the G20 recently failed to agree a statement condemning Russia’s actions, as China would not agree to criticise them.
It is however positive that China are at least talking about trying to find a peaceful settlement.
This conflict will eventually end with some sort of negotiated settlement so the sooner that can be reached the better for everyone.
I’m sure Zelensky sees that and he obviously wants to stop Russia from attacking his country so he is understandably keen to speak to China.
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Red_is_best
Well-known member
Mwelolo, your alternative, but always rational, view adds a good deal to this thread. It is much appreciated.
Decent_Left
Well-known member
Hey Borolad, does your mate have any inside info on the story behind RuSSian carrying out its usual tricks in Moldova the other other day?
As far as I can see its the typical playbook of Russians being "oppressed" in a foreign land and requiring Russian support to make the foreign land Russia again
As far as I can see its the typical playbook of Russians being "oppressed" in a foreign land and requiring Russian support to make the foreign land Russia again
Yep, this was his take on it.
"It is good thing that Russia is so dependably stupid, and that they do not understand what is required as pretext for a democratic western oriented (well sort of) country to go to war.
If the Russians had understood better the latter part they would have acted quite differently in regards of Moldova and Transnistria, but instead they just assumed that everyone are like them and just make a few lies and then attack.
Regardless of Moldova being fairly ready to go to war in the form of an internal policing action to take back their own part and kick the Russians out, it required one heck of pretext to do so.
After all, there is an agreement to safeguard the peace in Transnistria, however flimsy and forced it is.
According to international laws the Russians have a reason to be exactly where they are.
This means that without a very good reason all the Moldovans can do is to wave flags and look menacing across the border.
And the same thing goes for the Ukrainians, this is why neither Ukraine, nor Russia, has been firing at each other across the border. Well, with perhaps a couple of minor incidents, but in general it has stayed like this.
But, since the Russians are depandably stupid they had to go meddle in the internal affairs of Moldova.
The large protest from their supporters is Russias attempt to change the government in Moldova.
The Moldovans can contain this since the Russian faction has shrunk during the war, but there is a risk of something more mennacing coming.
So, what did Russia do today?
Well, they launched their largest protest to date, and closed down the highway in and out of Chisinau in a clear attempt to illegally change out the government. In other words, they try to start a Revolution of Dignity in favour of Russia.
Problem is that Maia Sandu is very legally elected and approved by the international comunity, and that the Medvedchuk never was that.
On their own Moldova is not strong enough to kick out the Russians without a full on mobilisation and war.
So, they need to ask a member of the international comunity for help to kick them out.
Obviously no NATO country will do it.
The other option is to ask for volunteers, equip them, and start an international legion. But, most willing to do things like that are a bit busy in Ukraine.
But, there is a country near that has both the means and the will to help, Ukraine.
So, here is what I think will happen in the next few days.
Moldovan - Transnistrian War
Moldova will ask the international comunity for aid with the internal security of Moldova with the pretext that there is a risk of the protestors performing a coup.
The EU will start a longwinded debate...
Zelenskyy will put is forehead into a wrinkled position, and then he will offer to send a few brigades into Moldova to uphold their internal peace without mentioning Transnistria.
Moldova will then state that many of the protestors are hiding in Transnistria and that they are supported by the Transnistrian government, without mentioning Russias troops there.
For natural reasons four mechanical brigades will then run up to the border between Moldova and Ukraine with a paper in hand stating that they are invited in to Moldova, and calmly stating that Transnistria is a part of Moldova (which it is).
The Transnistrians will look at the 10 000 strong mechanised salamis and say "shtool" and let them pass into "Moldova".
And there the Ukrainians will remain.
Russians being dependably stupid will have opinions, shots will be fired, and the Ukrainians will smile blissfully and deal with the Russians in a firm policing manner and ask them to leave "Moldova".
Mysteriously as the Russians stop being problematic at the astute and friendly hands of the Ukrainians, EU forces arrive to take over the policing and negotiation between Moldova and Transnistria, and they will tell Russia that they are sadly not invited to the table.
At this point Zelenskyy tell his "police force" to come home, and the Ukrainians ride off into the setting sun with 2 million tons of ordinance that they kindly offer to dispose of after a request from the Moldovan government.
Obviously there could be some variant of this, and there will be a few days of hard words back and forth first.
But, basically Russia handed the Moldovan all pretext she would ever need today."
.
