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"Before I start I need to update the numbers a tiny bit.
Some analyst has spent way to much coffee and hours on analysis satelite pictures and counted, not calculated (cheech...), how many Russians there are in Ukraine.
This includes Donetsk and Luhansk militias, Regular army, Mobiks, Wagnerites and Kadyrovites.
Anyway, the number is 326 000.
2/3 are frontline troops, this is frankly a ridiculous number.
Normal fraction is at around 10 - 20 percent. The rest are either resting, training, logistics, repairshops... etcetera.
You need all of that to be able to sustain the war.
Now, a quick comparison to the Ukrainians.
They have a whopping 1 040 000 soldiers, with around 20 percent available for the frontline at any given moment.
Let us say that Ukraine has 210 000 soldiers vs Russias 220 000. Pretty even in that respect.
There is just one problem, Ukraine has 200 000 training, 200 000 resting... And a giant arsed logistics and repair setup.
The next thing is that Ukraine has a material advantage due to the almost endless supply of weapons and gear from the West.
This means that the Ukrainians should be able to almost toy with the Russians?
Problem is that it is not as easy as that for many very good reasons.
Let me go through those reasons before I start to muse towards the east.
Frontline disparity
Bizarily enough Ukraine has twice the length of frontline compared to Russia. This means that Ukraine must have twice the number of soldiers to achieve parity per frontline kilometre.
This has been caused by Biden quite frankly being an idiot, at least in this regard.
He has hogtied Ukraine into not attacking Russia with western arms, and to not cross the border.
A few missiles and a few special forces seems to be okay, and a bit of shelling.
But a tactical, or even strategic, offensive into Russia is out of the question.
And since Russia knows that they do not need to hold large forces protecting that huge stretch of border.
But, by threatening with a northern offensive the Ukrainians must stick around for that frontline spanning from Poland, via Belarus, all the way to Luhansk.
It is far from fair.
If things had been equal that Ukrainian surplus manpower would already have pushed Russia back quite a bit.
In the long run (year perspective) it will not have any effect though.
Human Life
Ukraine are far more conservative with the life of their soldiers.
And it tells in the comparatively love mortality rate, even when attacking it is lower than the Russian defender numbers.
Russia on the other hand does not give a ****.
Of the elite Airborne troops we know that the loss rate from the beginning of the war is roughly 50 percent.
The untrained Mobiks have far higher loss rate numbers, same with the Wagnerites and the militias.
It is here good to point out that Russias peak combat force in Ukraine topped out at 500 000 soldiers, and is after drafts and mobilisation down to 326 000 soldiers.
Ouch.
But, not caring about human life has a value in and of itself however gruesome it might seem.
It makes it possible for the Russians to slowly wear down defences, and even at times overwhelm them.
The cost is though immense.
Finally, with 326 000 Soldiers and 800 dead plus 1600 wounded per day things is not looking nice.
Russia only have soldiers for 150 days left.
Let us now be generous and say that those 200 000 are still there in Unseensk Russia (they are not), it would only add about 75 more days to total army annihilation.
Yes, they are doing a trickle mobilisation, but I am still stumped that they are not performing a massive new mobilisation to account for their grieveous losses.
Ukrainian tactical pause
Ukraine has decided to not attack during the mud season since winter was cancelled this year.
Instead they are waiting untill things dry up.
Ukraines strength is mobile manouvre warfare, and attacking in ultrarapid through the Ukrainian Supermud is just asking for your soldiers to be chewed up by the Russians.
Not a good way to save the lives of your soldiers.
Russia on the other hand is happy to plod forward regardless and waste life.
In the end Ukraine have handed over both the tactical and strategical impetus to Russia from an offensive standpoint, and are instead concentrating on defencive actions.
Problem is that this means they are being pushed backwards ever so slowly.
This is due to Russia being able to pick the battle fields, and Ukraine having to constantly move forces to reinforce.
Remember that during the summer and autumn it was exactly the opposite way?
Offensive staging
Ukraine is though getting ready for their upcoming offensive.
It will most definitely not be in Luhansk, nor will it be Donetsk.
Donbass can wait for the time being.
Ukraine have large forces at Zhaporizhzhia from the Kakhovka dam all the way over to Vuhledar.
But, it is towards Tokmak, Melitopol and Berdyansk that Ukraine is using their artillery, and with spectacular effect.
This is tying up resources even further, even though it came in handy as the hapless Russians attacked straight into the bulk of the Ukrainian army both towards Zhaporizhzhia and towards Vuhledar.
And a lot artillery has been tied down in Kherson over the winter, both to protect Kherson City and Mykolaiv, but also to weaken the forces in Kherson sufficiently for the frontal assault that more and more analyticists are starting to believe in now.
I am sitting on my hands trying to not say... "told you so".
And now Ukraine is slowly moving a unit here, a unit there... towards Kherson.
And due to everyone braying donkishly about "BAKHMUUUUUT!" like if they are the Foghorn signal on Fastnet Rock, everyone has missed the ongoing small island battles.
Anyway, even less troops is also having an effect in the East
Kreminna
Ukraine attacking at this vector have reversed the situation, Russia is forced to pull in ever more resources into Kreminna to be able to hold.
So much so that Ukraine in the end had to dig down and return to Borstjing the Russians.
Kreminna/Svatove has basically eaten a large chunk of the available reserve of Russia that was intended for the Russian offensive.
Soledar
Ukraine has constructed a new sturdy defenceline, and Russia has had to pull troop away from here. That stopped any North and West offensive lines, and now they are concentrating on trying to push through towards the Holy Russian BDSM City of Bakhmut.
And, on that regard...
BAKHMUUUUUT!
I can Foghorn Leghorn with the best of them, but I seem to be able of thinking about many things at the same time.
I will never understand the perversity going on between Prigozhin and Zurovikin at Bakhmut.
But, Prigozhin being a complete and utter military Numbnuts saved Bakhmut for months.
Being a thug and a rapist he just understood how to run strait into it without any manouvres or flanking experiments.
Gerasimov spared no time in subsuming Wagner directly into the army, demoting Prigozhin to PR duties, and then he got on with doing quite bog standard army stuff.
Two fairly standard pincer manouvre breakthroughs in slow-motion later and he has Bakhmut in a pocket with both big roads under artillery fire control.
Only the mud delayed his action, and I would say that the Ukrainian commander was a tad slow on changing tack from Stupid Prigozhin Tactics, to normal army tactics.
Now Ukraine has two alternatives.
Holding on to a completely useless City, or fall back to the prepared nice comfy defence line behind them.
The only reason to hold Bakhmut is that it is costing Russian lives, but either they have to take higher losses themselves and risk being encircled, reinforce there, or even counter-attack.
Counter attacking during the mud season would just be silly. Slav1nnska did a rapid one there, but that was only possible due to the ground being very temporarily frozen, and as soon as it mudded up she hightailed it out of there.
Reinforcing and holding? Nah, not into a pocket.
Holding and dying? Not really the style of the Ukrainian army.
So, withdraw it is after bleeding the Russians some more.
I give Bakhmut 1-3 weeks and then goodbye Yellow Brick Road.
The East
In the end Ukraine has made a choice, the East is for now to be held.
It is Crimea that will bring victory, and even losing a few bits and pieces in Donbas is worth it if the can put an end to the war.
And to be honest, as soon as Ukraine punches southward towards Crimea (regardless of where), Russia will have to start moving troops to try to hold Crimea at any cost.
Crimea will in the end become Kreminna on a gigantic scale, but in reality it will be Northern Kherson.
Bonus Musing
So... Kreminna...
Well, guess who is not there any longer?
Her own brigade was rotated.
She rapidly dropped off the equipment from the Brigade and went for an extended pause to wash her feet, don a clean uniform, pester me with comments about being bored, and to wait as her new equipment is being slowly ferried across the Polish border...
Spring is coming to Ukraine in a while.
The old gear is now going into a new Brigade.
Somehow she has a new nickname, Nyshchivnyy Kuvalda.
Quite befitting, descriptive, and sort of reminds me of part of her real name."