Healthier people with adequate vitamin D levels are, apparently, less likely to need hospital care ... so relieving the burden on hospitals. Yes, some will get very sick and die, but according to our own NHS advisors it improves your likelihood of having mild symptoms. At the end of the day, we don't know yet. Currently, the two countries with the most stringent lockdowns are still seeing exponential growth curves. Eventually, those curves will naturally flatten out anyway because more people will have resistance (not immunity). In the end, we won't know until much later in the year, maybe even next year. In the meanwhile we all have accept that we are in the dark, so taking judgmental positions isn't helpful.
We have significant growth in Spain. However it is no longer exponential. Here is a Google translation of an analysis of today's figures in Spain...
"5 April 2020
Notable falls in cases and daily deaths. Today it is time to apply caution with the reading of the results due to the possible weekend effect, which leads to the delay in accounting and reporting of information. That could mainly affect data from new cases, whose official data could be somewhat below the real ones (and the correction is seen in the data communication on Tuesday).
Taking these caveats into account, let's go to the data.
6,023 new cases. It is the minimum since March 23. 7,026 cases yesterday. 130,759 cases in total. Strong push down of the multiplication rate, to 1.28.
674 died yesterday compared to 809 yesterday. The data may be influenced by the weekend effect, but hopefully little. We were already saying that the drop in new daily cases was going to carry over into a drop in daily deaths in the following 5-10 days. There are 12,418 deaths in total. Also sharp drop in the multiplication rate, which is already below 1.4, to 1.37
As we announced yesterday, we stopped giving information about the valuable evolution data in hospitalization and in the ICU, because the Autonomous Communities are following different accounting criteria, and it no longer allows comparing with previous data in the series, which is essential to calculate well and with sense the multiplication rates."
The target is to get the multiplication rate down to 1. The hard lock down is not there yet. However progress is being made.
A couple of weeks ago I agreed with you that we cannot make a clear statement on the short term success of a hard lock down. Now we can. As I have said before. This is only a first step. To try to keep demand below available facilities. In Spain we need to continue with our hard lock down. While planning for what comes next.
