Tories good with the economy myth

[Andy_W]

So yup it is simplistic. It's not wrong though and I could produce comparable graphs for NHS investment, salaries, rate of serious criminal convictions, waiting times for your GP, per pupil spend in eductaion... Pick a metric and the graphs will mirror the economic growth. this my friend is a fact.

Post those graphs then, it's a much, much more legitimate argument

The Tories are **** at all of them, but they are generally not so bad with the economy, compared to the G7 over long timeframes.

Brexit is their big problem though or at the very least their version of it, that after recovering from an inevitable recession is the mother of all fuckups. Recessions happen no matter which party leads, the recession wasn't Labour's fault etc, it just happens as a correction after long-term growth. It's always happened, always will happen.

 

[Laughing]

I hadn't, each dash is a year, but now the left vertical red line is now in the right place

The yellow line is fine (it's similar to Blue one which FT already had on there from 2010-19), which isn't great of course.

Tories were in charge from 1979 to 1997, so 7/18 of those years before 2008 were under the Tories, Labour kept it the same, they both did fine for the economy/ production.

The problem is the additional lines to what was in the article. You can't apply a red trend line from 1 year (immediately after a recession), and infer that it's going to carry on that way for 11 years, it doesn't work like that.

Also, that pink line which FT wrote on there is not "pre crash economic forecast", it's a trend from 1990 to 2007, expecting that to continue for another 12 years is ludicrous, especially as we know there was a recession in 2008, and most of the time there is a recession every 10-20 years.

There are always recessions, and there are always recoveries, and each is very different. The best comparator is not previous years, it's comparing with other comparable nations or an average of them.

View attachment 42874

You say it doesn't work like that. OK where is the evidence. Counter my argument, but don't just say I am wrong. Show me a graph that shows how good the tories are with the economy.

Here is a fact. Under labour GDP has increased on average by 2.6%. Under tories 1.5%. Want a graph for this? I don't really care for a comparison with G7 countries, it's an arbitrary comparison an done which the government would use as it paints them in a better light. A direct comparison with Labour is far more beneficial.




Here is one for education spend




Apologies for appearing stroppy, FatCat, of all people, told me off.

 

[Andy_W]

You say it doesn't work like that. OK where is the evidence. Counter my argument, but don't just say I am wrong. Show me a graph that shows how good the tories are with the economy.

Here is a fact. Under labour GDP has increased on average by 2.6%. Under tories 1.5%. Want a graph for this? I don't really care for a comparison with G7 countries, it's an arbitrary comparison an done which the government would use as it paints them in a better light. A direct comparison with Labour is far more beneficial.

View attachment 42878


Here is one for education spend


View attachment 42880

Apologies for appearing stroppy, FatCat, of all people, told me off.

The Tories have been in charge for 2/3 of the time over the last 70 years or whatever, the charts for each are roughly the same, no one is better than the other for the economy, but there are external things which can absolutely batter it. The big problem for the Tories this time around is Brexit, which is largely their own doing (and a lot of traditional labour voters doing to).

You're looking at it far too simplistically, there are about 200 years of GDP data which shows times after recessions are crap, and the depth of the recession is largely proportional to the time it takes to recover. Look at the great depression for example, which took nearly 20 years to recover from, same with any of the wars etc. Shorter ones are easier to handle.

Also, it's hard to grow after you've grown, this is why we will never keep up with the likes of India, China or whoever else in the future, we've had our time, the more recent and future growth is there's. Even more so since the population stopped rapidly increasing in the UK after the baby boom etc.

Also your very first graph was for production, not the economy. We've scaled back on production as we were getting battered by the EU and Asia, and shifted over to services. Brexit will kill off any growth in production for the foreseeable.

Look at the long-term GDP below, pretty consistent curve, but every time we got ahead of the curve there was a recession to bring it back on track, the same applies to anyone, like USA, France, Germany etc, and it doesn't care who they have in power either.

Comparing different times is ludicrous if you're not going to consider the effects of Wars, Recession, major disasters etc, and also compare that to how the other nations got on during these times. IF you're doing **** relative to the others then you're doing ****. If everyone is doing ****, then it's largely not your fault. If you shoot yourself in the foot (Brexit) compared to the others, then this is worse than all.

 

[Andy_W]

It's hard to use the economy as a stick to beat the Tories with (and not mention Brexit which was a national decision), but you can use a million other things like public services, wage growth, education, worker rights etc, the tories **** all the latter to get growth, and Labour seem to improve them all whilst having similar growth.

 

[Laughing]

The Tories have been in charge for 2/3 of the time over the last 70 years or whatever, the charts for each are roughly the same, no one is better than the other for the economy, but there are external things which can absolutely batter it. The big problem for the Tories this time around is Brexit, which is largely their own doing (and a lot of traditional labour voters doing to).

You're looking at it far too simplistically, there are about 200 years of GDP data which shows times after recessions are crap, and the depth of the recession is largely proportional to the time it takes to recover. Look at the great depression for example, which took nearly 20 years to recover from, same with any of the wars etc. Shorter ones are easier to handle.

Also, it's hard to grow after you've grown, this is why we will never keep up with the likes of India, China or whoever else in the future, we've had our time, the more recent and future growth is there's. Even more so since the population stopped rapidly increasing in the UK after the baby boom etc.

Also your very first graph was for production, not the economy. We've scaled back on production as we were getting battered by the EU and Asia, and shifted over to services. Brexit will kill off any growth in production for the foreseeable.

Look at the long-term GDP below, pretty consistent curve, but every time we got ahead of the curve there was a recession to bring it back on track, the same applies to anyone, like USA, France, Germany etc, and it doesn't care who they have in power either.

Comparing different times is ludicrous if you're not going to consider the effects of Wars, Recession, major disasters etc, and also compare that to how the other nations got on during these times. IF you're doing **** relative to the others then you're doing ****. If everyone is doing ****, then it's largely not your fault. If you shoot yourself in the foot (Brexit) compared to the others, then this is worse than all.

View attachment 42886

I would have a completely different interpretation of that graph Andy.

at around 1930, there was the start of exponential growth which wasn't sustained. Secondly the tories have been over represented in this graph. The periods when Labour have been in power are few and far between and the scale is too big to see differences in a 10 year cycle.

I think this graph just shows how underwhelming the tories have been.

Zoom in to a before and after labour period and see what it looks like.

You say in your second post it's difficult to bash the tories on the economy... It really isnt. Any economic metric will favour labour over the tories.

 

[1finny]

In the last 48 years of Tory government they have only reduced the national debt in 4 of those years !

Something similar
I read that every government over the last 50 years has left the economy in a worse state than it inherited.
Economic growth is a myth

The Tory response is often - Gordon Brown left us with no money.
Now - we have significantly less than ‘no money’ and it was the same pre covid.

 

[Laughing]

Something similar
I read that every government over the last 50 years has left the economy in a worse state than it inherited.
Economic growth is a myth

The Tory response is often - Gordon Brown left us with no money.
Now - we have significantly less than ‘no money’ and it was the same pre covid.

I don't know how much truth there is in that finny. Governments do tend to change during a crisis, even when it isn't the sitting governments fault. The economic crash in 2010, whats happening now. That will, by definition leave the economy in a poor state for the incoming government.

All that said, growth under labour is, on average 2.6% per year and 1.5% per year under the tories. It doesn't sound like a big difference, but over time it is massive, thats why we are getting poorer. The averages give a better indication as it smooths out the big downturns that all economies suffer from time to time.

 

[Andy_W]

I would have a completely different interpretation of that graph Andy.

at around 1930, there was the start of exponential growth which wasn't sustained. Secondly the tories have been over represented in this graph. The periods when Labour have been in power are few and far between and the scale is too big to see differences in a 10 year cycle.

I think this graph just shows how underwhelming the tories have been.

Zoom in to a before and after labour period and see what it looks like.

You say in your second post it's difficult to bash the tories on the economy... It really isnt. Any economic metric will favour labour over the tories.

I'm mainly talking about GDP, like I say, as that's the mainly used indicator of economic growth, and like I always say, they're crap at just about everything else (other than making the rich, richer, at the poor's expense). You need GDP to grow to help to increase other aspects of the economy though, but you need to choose to do that also, which is what the Tories don't choose to do, they effectively use growth to put cash/ shares etc back into the pockets of the rich.

Any time we went above this line, we were brought back to it with various recessions, for various reasons and most of them were world problems, the world doesn't care who is in charge in the UK.

 

[Laughing]

I'm mainly talking about GDP, like I say, as that's the mainly used indicator of economic growth, and like I always say, they're crap at just about everything else (other than making the rich, richer, at the poor's expense). You need GDP to grow to help to increase other aspects of the economy though, but you need to choose to do that also, which is what the Tories don't choose to do, they effectively use growth to put cash/ shares etc back into the pockets of the rich.

Any time we went above this line, we were brought back to it with various recessions, for various reasons and most of them were world problems, the world doesn't care who is in charge in the UK.View attachment 42889

It doesn't address my points I dont think Andy. The average growth in GDP under labour versus tory

 

[Andy_W]

It doesn't address my points I dont think Andy. The average growth in GDP under labour versus tory

From when to when? Your cherry-picked graph from 1990 to 2016?

They've been battling it out for a century, the longer the timeframe you use the more accurate the conclusion will be.

I'm a Labour voter (and this bunch of Tories are the worst bunch of clowns we've ever had), but don't use cherry-picked data and things which can be easily explained, you don't need to do it, it's what the Tories do, don't drop to their level.

Labour are much better at running the economy than voters think – new research

We looked at 100 years of Tory and Labour governments to see who was better at producing GDP.

theconversation.com

Most of the big problems come from wars, recessions, and natural disasters (like pandemics) the biggest compounding problem the Tories will have is they chose to have a referendum, and let the UK vote on whether to have a recession (or massively stifled growth) or not, and they chose one, voters on both sides did.

Tories almost got a grip on the national debt, after the recession and prior to the brexit vote (went about ti the wrong way mind), but after Brexit it was only going to go back up again, and then further still with covid and now massive inflation. Labour are going to have to get that national debt down again after all this, and it won't be simple, and neither will getting growth up above 2% (unless we get back on good terms with the EU).

 

[JackG]

I don't know how much truth there is in that finny. Governments do tend to change during a crisis, even when it isn't the sitting governments fault. The economic crash in 2010, whats happening now. That will, by definition leave the economy in a poor state for the incoming government.

All that said, growth under labour is, on average 2.6% per year and 1.5% per year under the tories. It doesn't sound like a big difference, but over time it is massive, thats why we are getting poorer. The averages give a better indication as it smooths out the big downturns that all economies suffer from time to time.

I haven't the slightest intention of defending the Tories, but the financial crisis broke in 2007 and we entered recession in 2008. You can trace the causes back to the Thatcher/lawson 'Big Bang' in 86 but the fact remains that Brown had swallowed the Kool-Aid and had been in charge of the financial system since 97. He can't accept plaudits for firm action in 2008 while giving it 'nothing to do with me guv' when blame is being handed out for the preceding decade. The recession was a result of policy failure, as Vince Cable pointed out in advance. It wasn't an act of God

 

[sherlock]

It's hard to use the economy as a stick to beat the Tories with (and not mention Brexit which was a national decision), but you can use a million other things like public services, wage growth, education, worker rights etc, the tories **** all the latter to get growth, and Labour seem to improve them all whilst having similar growth.

I'd argue that Brexit wasn't a national decision and was absolutely a Tory decision. The referendum was advisory, they had absolutely no obligation to follow the result, especially when it was so close.

That they did so, and ruined the country, is entirely on them.

 

[Andy_W]

I'd argue that Brexit wasn't a national decision and was absolutely a Tory decision. The referendum was advisory, they had absolutely no obligation to follow the result, especially when it was so close.

That they did so, and ruined the country, is entirely on them.

It was daft to have a vote, but the vote was UK-wide, and was extremely daft to vote out, but I suppose once they did both of those, the only way they were going was out, one way or another, unfortunately.

The worst decision of all was the version of Brexit they chose, which was ultimately one of the many options the leavers wanted, and what the far right most wanted.

It's a long chain of events, the most ridiculous decision of all was not having a public vote on the main core of the leave options (i.e sticking with SM & CU).

The public handed them the keys to being able to inflict one of the most ludicrous decisions of far-right appeasement that I've ever seen.

 

[Laughing]

From when to when? Your cherry-picked graph from 1990 to 2016?

They've been battling it out for a century, the longer the timeframe you use the more accurate the conclusion will be.

I'm a Labour voter (and this bunch of Tories are the worst bunch of clowns we've ever had), but don't use cherry-picked data and things which can be easily explained, you don't need to do it, it's what the Tories do, don't drop to their level.

Labour are much better at running the economy than voters think – new research

We looked at 100 years of Tory and Labour governments to see who was better at producing GDP.

theconversation.com

Most of the big problems come from wars, recessions, and natural disasters (like pandemics) the biggest compounding problem the Tories will have is they chose to have a referendum, and let the UK vote on whether to have a recession (or massively stifled growth) or not, and they chose one, voters on both sides did.

Tories almost got a grip on the national debt, after the recession and prior to the brexit vote (went about ti the wrong way mind), but after Brexit it was only going to go back up again, and then further still with covid and now massive inflation. Labour are going to have to get that national debt down again after all this, and it won't be simple, and neither will getting growth up above 2% (unless we get back on good terms with the EU).

Cherry picking the current lot versus an unknown labour offering isn't cherry picking. It's the closest comparison you can get.

 

[1finny]

I don't know how much truth there is in that finny. Governments do tend to change during a crisis, even when it isn't the sitting governments fault. The economic crash in 2010, whats happening now. That will, by definition leave the economy in a poor state for the incoming government.

All that said, growth under labour is, on average 2.6% per year and 1.5% per year under the tories. It doesn't sound like a big difference, but over time it is massive, thats why we are getting poorer. The averages give a better indication as it smooths out the big downturns that all economies suffer from time to time.

Small point - we were significantly worse off than when Brown left before Covid.
Around 0.6 trillion worse off, if I remember correctly by 2019.
Debt increased every single year (you can choose other measures I guess)

 

[Laughing]

Small point - we were significantly worse off than when Brown left before Covid.
Around 0.6 trillion worse off, if I remember correctly by 2019.
Debt increased every single year (you can choose other measures I guess)

Don't get me wrong I wasnt supporting tories. I was pointing out that governments usually change when things are percieved as bad. That's why, most, governments leave with an economy worse than it had been. Its also why I think it's a bad metric to use for an outgoing government. The average growth is far more informative. If you look at median growth over the last 100 years labour achieve 0.62 whilst the tories 0.58. I have no idea what the political landscape was 100 years ago nor how the current extreme right tory party compares with its predecessors. That's why I "cherry picked" the last 2 government's for comparison, it seemed an obvious comparison.

 

[Druss_The_Legend]

But we have the fastest growing economy in the G7! the right honorable Mr Alexander Boris de whatever Johnson said so repeatedly in PM question time, and that fella is well known for his honesty and integrity, he wouldn't twist the truth or lie!

 

[Andy_W]

Cherry picking the current lot versus an unknown labour offering isn't cherry picking. It's the closest comparison you can get.

You're comparing a time where there was a worldwide economic boom within the G7, which also included the .com boom/ birth of the internet, with the time immediately after a recession, it's not comparable. The external worldwide factors play a major part in GDP, pretending they don't doesn't make it untrue.

There were indications that we were on a somewhat path to economic recovery after the recession and before the leave vote (good growth compared to G7 from 2013-2015), why won't you acknowledge that? Because you voted for it (Brexit)?

Unknown Labour offering? What are you on about? It's hard to compare the past (as you demonstrate by trying to compare dissimilar times), never mind comparing the future which doesn't exist yet. The only reason I posted the longer-term graph was just to show there was a relative long-term trend, roughly following a curve, with no party clearly good or bad on that. The Tories were in charge for 2/3 of that growth as they were in power 2/3 of the time (unfortunately). We would have had similar growth under Labour if they had been in 2/3 of the time and looked after people much better/ better public services etc.

It's hard to know what Labour's future policies will be, and if they're going to win (I hope and think they will, and will absolutely certainly be voting for them), but given the economic forecast because of Brexit, Covid, War, Inflation etc then we're going to be in for one hell of a beating for a while, no matter who is in charge. There should be some sort of quick recovery once those wear off, but that's hard to say when they will be, it's looking at least 2024 onwards before that even thinks about starting with any real pace, and then our growth will likely be slower than the EU/ USA/ G7 as none of them has taken an economic shotgun to their heads as we have with Brexit.

As I say, the current bunch of Tories are the worst we've ever had, but they came about through a rise of the little Englander far right, enabled by the Brexit vote. Had the Brexit vote not happened, then we would be faring similarly to the EU I expect, possibly even better, as we were doing before the vote.

Take Brexit away and the Tories would have done better economically, up until 2019 anyway before Covid hit, and Labour would have done better when they get in early 2025. They're both screwed now though, for a while at least, and there's going to be a lot of rebuilding to be done.

The economic forecast (and that relative to the G7) is the main reason why I don't think the Tories have a chance at the next GE, they will need a silver lining to this 6 year **** show since the Brexit vote, to get a voter bounce, but there isn't one coming anytime soon. There will be a small bump from the new leader, but it's still the same bunch of bad eggs in parliament, and they ain't going to fix the world and Brexit in 2.5 years.

 

[Andy_W]

But we have the fastest growing economy in the G7! the right honorable Mr Alexander Boris de whatever Johnson said so repeatedly in PM question time, and that fella is well known for his honesty and integrity, he wouldn't twist the truth or lie!

We had that back in 2012-2016 before the Brexit vote (for like 6 quarters out of 20, and the rest of the time mainly in the top 3), maybe he's stuck in the past .

But since the vote we've rocketed down to 6/7th, and think we're around the same now (certainly not averaging near the top 3). We might get a small growth pump back up that list, but if so it's likely as we've gotten so far behind, i.e nothing for that clown to be shouting about.

 

[Laughing]

Let me say this again Andy. You are wrong. Even over the last 100 years, and tories have had twice as much in time in power, they are still behind Labour on economics.

More recently they are further behind. Comparing the most recent labour government with the the current tory government. Its not nonsense because you say so.

You picked the g7 comparison because it supported your argument, no other reason. Compare the g20 or Europe v uk.

The dig about brexit is beneath you. If you want to continue that do it with someone else, I won't entertain it.