What have Coventry done differently to us?

I'd add to that chapter 1 and chapter 5 were periods where Isiah Jones spent far less tie on the pitch.

Up until a few games ago when i worked it out, we averaged 1.6 ppg with him starting games and less than 1 ppg when he doesn't start. His importance to our team cannot be underestimated.
You've got be careful with stats like that. There were so many other factors to that poor period with Issiah was injured. It coincided with Glover playing instead of Dieng. We were playing without a striker. Hackney was out for most of it and the games he played he was playing out of position while Barlaser played in the midfield.

We are 2.09 points per game when Coburn has started and 1.24 points per game when Lath starts.

Gareth Bale never played on a winning Tottenham side in 16 appearances in his first season!!
 
I thought Coventry have been amongst the best teams at the riverside this year. They added well to their squad and are probably at least a season ahead of us in squad development. They recruited as well as they could over the summer and for the most part their signings have settled into championship football well. They were able to start from a much better foundation than us this year given our loss of loan players and rather depleted number squad. Given our recruitment of unproven youngsters and injuries I personally think it has been a remarkable achievement to be as close to the team that beat us in the play offs. Whether people think we have overachieved or Coventry have underachieved I dont know but from my perspective I am really impressed with what we have done and without the injuries feel that we would be way ahead of Coventry. A very good achievement from the coaching staff and players.
 
Let's face it, we had very kind draws on the way - their achievement was much greater. As Redwurzel syas, they are strong contenders next season. Having three big clubs such as Leeds, Leicester & Saints come down together is unusual. Cov have done outstandingly well after selling O'Hare and Gyokeres; their budget over the past couple of seasons must have been much smaller than ours.

It's hard to judge this season for us because of the injuries factor but you have to say that disappointment was foreshadowed by our grim opening, which pointed up key issues: lack of firepower, soft goals conceded, conceding first. For me, retaining key performers such as VdB, McGree and Hackney is important, because I feel Carrick has the trust of the squad and, notwithstanding a similar injury crisis, we have the quality to challenge.

I think the emergence of Clarke has been interesting. He's a 'proper defender' and, although he does have a rick in him, a team needs that 'you're not getting past us' mentality. Bangura is an interesting one. He looked good on Monday when he came on. Is he suspect defensively - and if so, are we prepared to carry that given what he might offer as an attacking threat? Similar conundrum to Ayling really, who can look all at sea when a good winger gets at him.

The big plus from the last month or two has been the emergence of Lath, whom I didn't rate, but who seems to have made a real breakthrough. I do believe that confidence is the biggest factor in football and I believe the evidence is that Carrick makes players better and that's maybe down to his psychological influence as much as anything. I think two big questions surround Barlaser and Azaz on that score. In some games, Barlaser has ran the show. Azaz has had moments of real quality. Those sorts of players need a fair wind behind them; they need trust and self-belief. But both players need to be sharper, toughen up, cut out the tendency to flake out which gets fans on their backs. For players like that it might come down to a run of games in a winning team, just as for Lath is was a run of goalscoring once he'd got to grips with the pace and intensity of the league.
I couldn't argue that who we played leading to the semi-final was very kind to us and Coventry reaching the FA Cup final was a bigger achievement but I do feel both cup runs were a distraction. Look at Coventrty's result against Birmingham.

Regarding the emergence of Clarke. Clarke's put in some decent performances for us but he's certainly not the answer to our centre-back position. Don't mistake his work rate and passion for ability.

Clarke looks good on the ball, can play a pass but is often caught out of position. On two occasions against Leeds he stepped into midfield when there was no need and was caught out of position which led to them scoring. There are numerous more examples of his frailties and teams have sussed him out. He steps out and they play the ball into the gap behind him.

In his defence, I would say he's been the only fit centre-back we've had all season and he's certainly held the defence together at times. I feel we have better players on the books for that position and if they are not available next season, then we need to go out and strengthen.
 
I don't think it took their eyes off the league, neither team are consistent enough and that's been the story all season, not for a short period surrounding the big cup matches. We both lost to Rotherham, for example. Have a look at their results and they've been similar to ours.

They did take 6 points from us, had that been reversed we would still be outside the top 6, they'd be on 57 points.
Coventry had been on a decent run prior to the semi-final and threw in a coupon buster of a performance against Birmingham and got beat 3-0. These results always tend to come up prior to big games.
 
You've got be careful with stats like that. There were so many other factors to that poor period with Issiah was injured. It coincided with Glover playing instead of Dieng. We were playing without a striker. Hackney was out for most of it and the games he played he was playing out of position while Barlaser played in the midfield.

We are 2.09 points per game when Coburn has started and 1.24 points per game when Lath starts.

Gareth Bale never played on a winning Tottenham side in 16 appearances in his first season!!
True - I agree stats only tell part of the picture and can be misleading, however, the reason I specifically sought out that particular stat is to demonstrate something I have witnessed in the games myself.

We are simply far, far, more effective as a team when he is on the pitch, regardless of his sometimes erratic final ball.
 
Does Gibson see buying/borrowing players capable of promotion as an investment he is prepared to finance, in addition to him covering the losses we will make next season however we do?

I don't think he is prepared to at all - I have seen no indication of this since the Tavernier window.
I think he does but that he has to be convinced.

21/22 we bring in Scott and Scott's first act is basically to kick Warnock out the door. Gibson then decided he wanted Wilder but there appears to have been internal warfare in the January window.

22/23 was the first summer he could have spent big but we had Wilder in place and it was clear that there had been a massive breakdown in trust. As it was we ended up with a twin track system of some players for Wilder and some for the club. We almost got promoted by accident when the players for Wilder and loans turned out to be top drawer, while the Scott players - with the exception of Forss didn't convince.

23/24 Gibson did have a choice to make. We could have replaced loans with loans and it does look like we shot ourselves in the foot by delaying too too long while we tried to sign Giles and Akpom. In the end, we went down a route of buying a lot of players to develop, possibly because the Championship looked too rich for us. I think Gibson thought that he wanted to see some proof that the rebuilt recruitment department could actually find good value before he was willing to spend.

This summer is, for me, the big one. Carrick is now our longest serving manager since relegation, we have a core of a team that should be good enough for the playoffs if we have just a normal amount of injuries. It's the last year that we get the profit for Spence and Tav in our PSR headroom. If we carry on buying punts and hopefuls then it's clear that Gibson is trying to get up without significant investment. Personally, I think he'll sanction something like a £15m spend this summer and hope to be doing well enough to juice the team up in January.
 
I think he'll sanction something like a £15m spend this summer and hope to be doing well enough to juice the team up in January.
According to Transfermarket, we've spent around £15m this season. £11m the season before. And £12m the season before that.

That wouldn't exactly the big summer war chest we are hoping for. Especially if it's spread over 8-10 players again.
 
Performance of the 3 team who don't win the playoffs in the following season over the last 11 seasons (assuming Coventry don't pull off a miracle from here):

Automatic promotion: 7 (21%)
Promotion via playoffs: 4 (12%)
Lost in the playoffs again: 4 (12%)
Missed out on the playoffs 16 (48%)
Relegated: 2 (6%)

Make of that what you will. I suppose it's slightly more likely than not that a playoff team won't do as well the next year. it may be a case that teams who do well tend to lose their better players.
 
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According to Transfermarket, we've spent around £15m this season. £11m the season before. And £12m the season before that.

That wouldn't exactly the big summer war chest we are hoping for. Especially if it's spread over 8-10 players again.

Does that include loan fees, do you know?
 
Performance of the 3 team who don't win the playoffs in the following season over the last 11 seasons (assuming Coventry don't pull off a miracle from here):

Automatic promotion: 7 (21%)
Promotion via playoffs: 4 (12%)
Lost in the playoffs again: 4 (12%)
Missed out on the playoffs 16 (48%)
Relegated: 2 (6%)

Make of that what you will. I suppose it's slightly more likely than not that a playoff team won't do as well the next year. it may be a case that teams who do well tend to lose their better players.
So exactly a third of teams that have lost in the play-off have been in promoted the following season. Or on average, one team per season.
None of the three last season are going to even get in the play-offs.
 
We almost got promoted by accident when the players for Wilder and loans turned out to be top drawer, while the Scott players - with the exception of Forss didn't convince.
These were the signings. Which of them were unconvincing scott signings?
Liam Roberts
Darragh Lenihan
Tommy Smith
Marcus Forss
Matthew Hoppe
Matt Clarke

These were the loans, I would say two of them were top drawer for us.
Steffen
Muniz
Giles
Mowatt
 
Performance of the 3 team who don't win the playoffs in the following season over the last 11 seasons (assuming Coventry don't pull off a miracle from here):

Automatic promotion: 7 (21%)
Promotion via playoffs: 4 (12%)
Lost in the playoffs again: 4 (12%)
Missed out on the playoffs 16 (48%)
Relegated: 2 (6%)

Make of that what you will. I suppose it's slightly more likely than not that a playoff team won't do as well the next year. it may be a case that teams who do well tend to lose their better players.
Any chance that can be broken down by teams that finished 3rd/4th vs 5th/6th? Coventry and Sunderland scraped in on the last day of the season last year. They were both one of the 6/7 teams capable of playoffs with very little between them on 70/69 in 5th and 6th all the way down to Swansea in 10th with 66. They were in that pack with a basically 1 in 3 chance of making the playoffs so it isn't a huge shock that they won't make it this year. We were a bit of an anomaly last season because while we weren't far ahead of them our season only really started after Carrick took over so we were more of an auto candidate than a playoff scraping one so to finish where we have I would assume is statistically unlikely.

I think the teams that are automatic capable teams (3rd/4th place) will probably be heavily skewed towards those auto/playoff winning stats and the scrapers are more likely to be in those bottom sections.
 
I thought Coventry have been amongst the best teams at the riverside this year. They added well to their squad and are probably at least a season ahead of us in squad development. They recruited as well as they could over the summer and for the most part their signings have settled into championship football well. They were able to start from a much better foundation than us this year given our loss of loan players and rather depleted number squad. Given our recruitment of unproven youngsters and injuries I personally think it has been a remarkable achievement to be as close to the team that beat us in the play offs. Whether people think we have overachieved or Coventry have underachieved I dont know but from my perspective I am really impressed with what we have done and without the injuries feel that we would be way ahead of Coventry. A very good achievement from the coaching staff and players.
I think cov have done as I expected, their recruitment has been ok, but not as good as ours. I think path, rav, and rogers will all do better than Hadji Wright, Simms and the right back they signed long term. I’d agree they were ahead in development terms. Not so sure now though.

The likely loss of O’Hare on a free and 3 of their first teamers (Boswell, Goden and Kelly) well into their 30s will make it a summer of change but without money from big sales to invest. They’ll still be a good team next year but they might be peaking
 
These were the signings. Which of them were unconvincing scott signings?
Liam Roberts
Darragh Lenihan
Tommy Smith
Marcus Forss
Matthew Hoppe
Matt Clarke

These were the loans, I would say two of them were top drawer for us.
Steffen
Muniz
Giles
Mowatt
Signings I think that Wilder wanted:
Lenihan, Smith, Clarke, Steffen, Giles, Mowatt

I think Muniz was last in the line when all the strikers Wilder wanted fell through. We had tried to buy him before Scott turned up.

Roberts was a simple case of plugging the gaps.

Signings I think Scott pushed for as players to increase in value: Forss, Hoppe, Conteh. I had forgotten that Boyd Munce arrived in the previous January. Until Carrick took over, Wilder was playing Forss under protest and had zero interest in the academy or Hoppe. Admittedly, Carrick and pretty much every other one of this managers has felt the same about Hoppe.
 
Think it's symptomatic of the issue you face if you don't go up, the vultures come and cherry pick your best players. Or, more in the case of us and Sunderland, you lose top quality loan players who made a difference.

Even if you get big fees in, easier said than done replacing the proven quality you've lost.

Brentford made that recycling of players an art form, but even then it still took them a lot of goes to get over the line. Seem to remember them having a few slow starts to seasons, no doubt partly down to having to bed in new players every year.
From rmemory so could be wrong but Brentford improved the quality of the the players they invested in season on season such as Toney which they paid quite a large fee for at the time for a championship team hopefully we do something similar this summer
Think it's symptomatic of the issue you face if you don't go up, the vultures come and cherry pick your best players. Or, more in the case of us and Sunderland, you lose top quality loan players who made a difference.

Even if you get big fees in, easier said than done replacing the proven quality you've lost.

Brentford made that recycling of players an art form, but even then it still took them a lot of goes to get over the line. Seem to remember them having a few slow starts to seasons, no doubt partly down to having to bed in new players every year.
From memory so could be wrong Brentford improved the quality of the players they invested in season on season such as Toney who they paid quite a big fee for a championship team, hopefully we will do something similar this season
 
Yes Brentford bought Watkins for about £1m then sold him for big money to Villa (similar to us and Rogers) … They then used that money to invest £8-10m in Ivan Toney.

I’d like to think we could be shopping in the £5-8m bracket for a couple of important players this summer
 
From rmemory so could be wrong but Brentford improved the quality of the the players they invested in season on season such as Toney which they paid quite a large fee for at the time for a championship team hopefully we do something similar this summer
From memory so could be wrong Brentford improved the quality of the players they invested in season on season such as Toney who they paid quite a big fee for a championship team, hopefully we will do something similar this season

I don't think there was a single Brentford player who was in the playoff team that we beat, and their team that eventually achieved promotion. Every player had changed in between, and the likes of Watkins, Bhenrama, Konza and Maupay had all been bought and sold in the time in between.

No one wants to sell their best players, but it is possible to do it and keep moving forward.
 
From rmemory so could be wrong but Brentford improved the quality of the the players they invested in season on season such as Toney which they paid quite a large fee for at the time for a championship team hopefully we do something similar this summer
From memory so could be wrong Brentford improved the quality of the players they invested in season on season such as Toney who they paid quite a big fee for a championship team, hopefully we will do something similar this season
Sort of. But it wasn't a linear continuous improvement in league position or squad quality.

After we beat them in the play-off semis they sold Andre Gray for big money.

They then finished:

9th, 10th, 9th, 11th, 3rd and then 3rd when they got promoted through the play-offs.

They had a high turnover of players each year and didn't really spend big money on any single player until Toney.

Suppose the point being it's not that straightforward or easy and it took Brentford a good few years to get it right (and even then they had to do it via the play-offs).
 
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