xG

B

BoroPhil

Well-known member
I know everyone is suspicious of xG and we were in exactly the same position last season but:

Our attacking xG (5.9) is the 9th best in the division.

Our defensive xG (4.0) is the 3rd best in the division.

Our overall xGD (1.9) is the 4th best in the division.

On Saturday we 'won' on xG 1.8 - 0.6 (I imagine there aren't too many teams who have managed to concede 4 goals from 0.6 xG).

I'm not saying that changes anything and the defensive stats in particular don't necessarily correspond with what we are seeing but it probably explains why Carrick isn't (outwardly at least) too worried.

Yet again however, it seems we are managing to concede absolutely terrible goals and miss perfectly reasonable chances at the other end.
 
I think it shows what most who are able to be a bit more objective know.

We've created enough good chances and we've not given too many away.

The issue is taking those chances and cutting out the individual errors/soft goals at the back.

The concern is that it either stays as the trend for the season (eg we're just not very good at finishing) or confidence starts to ebb away if the trend continues and we stop creating chances full stop.
 
Defensively is where Carrick doesn't really have a recruitment excuse.

He really needs to sort out the defensive patterns and make us more solid.

The goals will come, I have no doubt about that
 
Laughing said:
Defensively is where Carrick doesn't really have a recruitment excuse.

He really needs to sort out the defensive patterns and make us more solid.

The goals will come, I have no doubt about that
Click to expand...
I think the problem is we have started Silvera Rogers and lathe and they dont know the defensive side of the game and how we press as a team. Lathe must start but Silvera and rogers should have been introduced slowly to the team i would much prefer to see forss and or jones playing before them.
 
I think this is partially why Carrick was able to turn things around so quickly last year.

The team was always good enough, but the mentality was not there with Wilder in charge. Leo/Carrick turned around the mentality through a mix of installing new players (Hackney, Smith and Forss) and a consistent gameplan.

The question is whether Carrick can turn it around or whether we get worse like happened last season.
 
Essentially on chances created/given away we have been the 4th best team in the league.

We have not scored our chances and the opposition has been lethal against us from minimal opportunity.

On Saturday:
- Mcgree tackled there defender in his box but couldn't get a decent connection on the shot.
- Lath had his goal and his other opportunity which was a free Shot in the box.
- Jones hit the post from a presentable position
- We scored a penalty
- Forss had a good heading position at the end of the game, but could only head back across.
- Engel had a one on one he could not finish

Other than their goals, they had one philips strike.

And their goals were not sitters except the one given away be Engel (even that he had to dribble around the keeper and had defenders to beat).

When we are making mistakes it can feel like we are awful, but we went to the Hawthorns and created the best chances despite being down to 10 men.

We aren't far away, just need to improve concentration and get some confidence.
 
Despite the positives our results speak for themselves I think, both in the number if goals we've shipped and the lack of goals we've scored.

Our strength last season was our attack, both in terms of chances created and goals, but also the amount of possession we had, which obviously restricted teams ability to create chances against us.

This season we've not been able to keep the ball as well, or as long, and that has a consequence in a defensive sense.

But it's still early days into a still unfinished rebuild, so not surprising that we have some obvious rough edges.
 
Laughing said:
Defensively is where Carrick doesn't really have a recruitment excuse.

He really needs to sort out the defensive patterns and make us more solid.

The goals will come, I have no doubt about that
Click to expand...
I'm not so sure. Our forwards last year pressed and worked and took the pressure off the defence. They were also prolific at scoring.

I've seen nothing at all to suggest the goals will come from our current forwards.
I don't think they are helping the team stop leaking. The defence was porous, still is, but it is more exposed now.
Our problems are the quality of our final third and their inability to protect, not just score.
 
Against WBA we had 14 goal attempts to their 7 - despite playing the last 40 minutes with 10 men.

As said just rank defending and a bit of bad luck (with Jones shot) cost us a result.

The evidence is pointing more towards our defending (as a team) is the biggest weakness, but finishing this season has been too poor.
 
Glover_elbow said:
I think the problem is we have started Silvera Rogers and lathe and they dont know the defensive side of the game and how we press as a team. Lathe must start but Silvera and rogers should have been introduced slowly to the team i would much prefer to see forss and or jones playing before them.
Click to expand...
I agree with most of that. Though I would persist with silvera and Rogers I think they will both be very good players. You are right though a lot of changes.
 
I think it's a useful stat, because it highlights that we're missing significant chances and conceding some absolutely stupid ones.

The opposition have been gifted most of the goals this season.
 
Laughing said:
I agree with most of that. Though I would persist with silvera and Rogers I think they will both be very good players. You are right though a lot of changes.
Click to expand...
Better than forss and jones i really dont see it certainly not at present. I would forgoet about a number 10 and drop rogers then maybe we can get some more support for howson and Hackney
 
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