YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

The
Ziggy said:
Parties are polling constantly. It’s an indication when the Tories get jittery that the private polls are not good. The questions asked are much more focused than in general polling
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They seemed to want to get to the younger members of the household, although quite what they think the Tories are offering the younger voters is beyond me, going to university costs are now eye watering.
 
This is an interesting listen for those who are following this thread, as it contains a chat with James Kanagasoorium who is a polling researcher.
It adds a bit of context around the current polling and slightly worryingly, suggests the lead may not be as significant as we all hope, as the leader popularity polling is far closer. Labour must not take these leads for granted.

(fast forward to 12 minutes for the relevant bit.)

podcasts.apple.com

‎The News Agents: Our billionaire PM and his £1 million tax bill on Apple Podcasts

‎Show The News Agents, Ep Our billionaire PM and his £1 million tax bill - 23 Mar 2023
podcasts.apple.com
 
FabioPorkpie said:
This is an interesting listen for those who are following this thread, as it contains a chat with James Kanagasoorium who is a polling researcher.
It adds a bit of context around the current polling and slightly worryingly, suggests the lead may not be as significant as we all hope, as the leader popularity polling is far closer. Labour must not take these leads for granted.

(fast forward to 12 minutes for the relevant bit.)

podcasts.apple.com

‎The News Agents: Our billionaire PM and his £1 million tax bill on Apple Podcasts

‎Show The News Agents, Ep Our billionaire PM and his £1 million tax bill - 23 Mar 2023
podcasts.apple.com
Click to expand...

Don't have the time right now to go into detail on this, but an analyst using binary sub-sample questioning as a metric to suggest national polls, that are refined by decades of methodology, may be incorrect makes me question their ability as an analyst.

But I definitely agree that Labour should not take their lead for granted, the Tories are going hard on culture wars and it will resonate with certain voters.
 
TeessideCleveland said:
Governments often close the gap in the polls as elections approach.
The Tories are going for dog whistle politics to try and attract UKIP/Brexit supporters
I also feel that 'Shy Tories' are still a factor
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I do too, though I still believe the balance has been tipped and they've no chance of re-election. My worry is that the Labour majority is only 30 or 40 seats.
 
Chris_Boro said:
Don't have the time right now to go into detail on this, but an analyst using binary sub-sample questioning as a metric to suggest national polls, that are refined by decades of methodology, may be incorrect makes me question their ability as an analyst.

But I definitely agree that Labour should not take their lead for granted, the Tories are going hard on culture wars and it will resonate with certain voters.
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Luckily it's the uneducated who are less likely to have the voter ID required
 
BoroMart said:
Luckily it's the uneducated who are less likely to have the voter ID required
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Phil moorhouse made an argument last year that the Tories might have got this wrong. Not sure I agree but his logic is, older tory voters may tip up at the polling booth and have forgotten there I'd. They won't bother coming back.

Not sure about that logic.
 
Express Mail and Torygraph are just relentless cheerleaders for Tories and mudslingers at Labour
Laughing said:
Phil moorhouse made an argument last year that the Tories might have got this wrong. Not sure I agree but his logic is, older tory voters may tip up at the polling booth and have forgotten there I'd. They won't bother coming back.

Not sure about that logic.
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He could be right but more from the point of view that some of the older generation might think proof of ID stuff is not the British way and can’t be bothered with it.
 
Scrote said:
I had that call the other day and was bored so went through it. It was pretty obvious it was commissioned by the Tories when the lady asked who I thought would be best placed to deliver the 18,000 new jobs and the trade benefits of the Freeport. I told her exactly what I thought (although politely as she was just doing a job).

I won't be sending my postal vote application back in the pre-paid envelope...
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I have, however, posted the empty envelope.
 
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