YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!
- Thread starter Chris_Boro
- Start date
Talking to yourself now? Interesting.
Easterside_Red
Well-known member
It's late. I'm not the first and I won't be the last.
It's fine mate. If you want to quote yourself and ask yourself to answer a question then I have no problem with that at all.
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Easterside_Red
Well-known member
Easterside_Red
Well-known member
Nobby_Barnes
Well-known member
Surprised people aren't going Green with all the global boiling going on 
Easterside_Red
Well-known member
How would that translate into seats?
Laughing
Well-known member
I read that a 12% lead in the polls at election time leads to a majority. It does depend on the methodology.
Labour will win a majority at the next election providing starner doesn't knock down one of the grannies that knit shreddies.
Thanks Laughing. So if this lead is maintained the majority would be about 60??
Laughing
Well-known member
Probably a bit more. One of the things that makes polls difficult is how they handle don't knows. A lot of those will be shy tories. They may stay at home or they may come out and vote. Some polling methodologies ignores them, some ask who they voted for in the last election and allocate the don't knows there.
I personally think the polls will widen a little before an election Sunak is quite literally, doing nothing. Nothing about the cost of living, nothing on industrial action, nothing on the economy, nothing to help out the NHS. 30p Lee seems to be the party strategist and he has openly said they will concentrate on culture wars. The public don't care, particularly when they are afraid of lossing their home. Meanwhile Sunak is quietly letting his 5 pledges die a death which is a stark contrast to a few months ago when, half inflation, reduce waiting time, grow the economy, something else and, of course, stop the boats, was the answer to every awkward question. Often followed by the priorities of the british people.
I think the tories will end up with about 100-120 seats. Lib dems will make big gains and I wouldn't be surprised to see the green party take a seat or two.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
Thanks Laughing. So if this lead is maintained the majority would be about 60?
Flippin' 'eck-Thanks Chris- Certainly cheered me up.
Laughing
Well-known member
Nobody really believes this though.
Unravel_Morrison
Well-known member
There is little chance of as big a majority as that. If it was an election now, I think it would be maybe a 100 seat majority as you would have to factor gains against the Tories from other parties.
Laughing
Well-known member
The electoral maths is in new territory this year so makes it difficult to predict. I agree.
Some tory seats that don't require an 18% swing, still won't be lost by the tories you imagine.
The maths is in new territory at the extremes of human behaviour.
ThePrisoner
Well-known member
Behave
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
It wouldn't be far off if that lead is representative of each constituency. It obviously won't be, but there is a point where such leads would result in near wipe out for the Tories.
Unravel_Morrison
Well-known member
I think possibly the main problems the Tories have isn't necessarily this next election but the drain of talent they have experienced with serious people having been replaced by absolute whoppers. On Teesside alone, you have thumbs up parmo guy, Lemontop, Cheaterooni and couldn't find it on a map woman. And that doesn't include the Darlington MP who personifies Doyle.