Mike Ashley in talks to seal Compensation deal with Boro

These prices for Ashley to buy the club that I keep seeing reported 30 to 50 million. I assume that is just to clear debts because whoever 'owns' the club at the minute can't be due any money surely.
 
TheYorkshireTerrier said:
Been reading their forum just now and I’m not sure where I stand on this whole Gibson vs Derby thing. I don’t 100% know the ins and outs of the whole subject but I couldn’t imagine being in the position where you could be partially blamed (rightly or wrongly) for a club going out of business and knowing what that would mean to such an amount of people. He must be confident with his case.
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What is clear from their boards is that they don't know either, but have all, to a man, made an assumption that a) Gibson is at fault for holding this up, b) the claims from Boro and Wycombe will fail and c) that the EFL are corrupt. None of that has any evidence from them of course, it's just prejudiced by their feelings
 
junos_boots said:
These prices for Ashley to buy the club that I keep seeing reported 30 to 50 million. I assume that is just to clear debts because whoever 'owns' the club at the minute can't be due any money surely.
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Depends, he holds assets that he paid out of his pocket and might want some return on that. What I've read is the total cost of taking on derby, debts and all right now is about 100m, and that doesn't include the Boro and Wycombe claims. But who knows
 
BoroMart said:
Depends, he holds assets that he paid out of his pocket and might want some return on that. What I've read is the total cost of taking on derby, debts and all right now is about 100m, and that doesn't include the Boro and Wycombe claims. But who knows
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The big question I suppose is what is in administration. Is it just the football club or is it the holding company that paid for the ground a few years ago as well?
 
I would suspect the former, as one of the key reasons to divest the companies is to limit debt and risk to certain parts of a business. Unless Morris is a complete moron, then he will have ensured the ground and training assets are safe from the administrators
 
Erimus74 said:
If Ashley pays out then surely he can then fight the odious Morris in courts to get his money back, if we actually won our claim then Derby were in the wrong at the time & who was in charge of Derby back then, not Ashley
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That's what he will be doing, to not miss out on the purchase, and he could fight Morris over a number of years, as he's got the cash to just wait. But he may even just write it off as the compensation will likely be low (in the grand scheme of things).

Can't see us getting much at all mind, they will just work out what our chance of going up, and then down again was, and average out our loss/ gain was, over a number of various probability outcomes, like an equity calculation.

The chance of us going up was probably less than 1 in 4, and then the chance of us staying up was probably 1 in 2 at best, going up via playoffs. So our best hope would be around 1 in 8 of that cash benefit, so effectively look at it as an 8th of what that would have been, at best. Then also factor that we could have gone up, spent money, and then come back down which would have probably put us in a worse position than we are now.

We only had about 3 or 4 players good enough for the prem, so would have been an exceptionally costly overhaul, we've probably dodged a bullet, as daft as it sounds, we're in a much stronger position now with regard to team strength and think we've cleared a lot of debts too.
 
Ashely is going to give us hard cash though isn't he and not just a huge credit note to spend at SD and USC, as surely there are only so many Lacoste trainers and Hugo Boss jumpers one person can own?
 
junos_boots said:
These prices for Ashley to buy the club that I keep seeing reported 30 to 50 million. I assume that is just to clear debts because whoever 'owns' the club at the minute can't be due any money surely.
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That is what has enraged Gibson - he believes their club is worth over £70m and that the whole thing is being underpriced. That is what attracts a man like Ashley, he knows a bargain when he sees one. I imagine Ashley could well do a deal with Gibson and Wycombe and buy Derby, writing off the debts. Gibson is effectively waiting to do business.
 
fmttmadmin said:
That is what has enraged Gibson - he believes their club is worth over £70m and that the whole thing is being underpriced. That is what attracts a man like Ashley, he knows a bargain when he sees one. I imagine Ashley could well do a deal with Gibson and Wycombe and buy Derby, writing off the debts. Gibson is effectively waiting to do business.
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He likely won't have much of an idea though, you can't tell a companies value by looking at the accounts, and he won't have access to the information to make an accurate valuation. The valuation will change depending on how many points they get too, as it will have a massive impact on projected earnings, i.e they will be worth more now, after their good run, than before, but the valuation was probably done before that (which is fair enough).

It'll just be a guess, to try and get the administrators to dig deeper, as they will get access to everything.
 
There is so much that is invisible to people on the outside.
The last published Derby County accounts in the public domain are to June 2018.
The EFL demanded re-submission of the 2019 and 2020 submitted accounts required for the 2019, 2020 and 2021 FFP assessments, but they are not in the public domain given the business is in Administration.

There is obviously Nett Shareholder value to consider and we simply can't even see Derby's at present, let's not pretend we can.
Then there is market value of the club.
It is all dependent upon what is actually being bought. If a new owner of Derby assumes all debt and is simply buying the position Derby are in, then Ashley will not want to pay a premium to pick up that mess.
It really does depend upon what position Morris has actually left Derby in, so what Ashley would be actually buying.
It would appear that is no ground or fixed assets (it would seem given he "sold" them to himself), a low value playing squad and significant debt.

Gibson claims (am sure he can back it up) he received a bid for part of Boro's equity that valued the Club at over £150m, that even given the massive debt that Boro have to Gibson O'Neill. On the face of it that bid came in despite Boro at the time having a very large nett Shareholder deficit (nowhere near as big as it is now).
People will pay something for things that on the face of it have nett liability rather than value and who have only ever made loss; they don't have to be start ups.
If Ashley can get Derby for £40m, he will have a Club that have the fanbase to play PL football (if not regularly). He may back himself and people he will employ to get Derby up and keep them up. If he does that then the debt he may assume will seem paltry to a PL club and he could make some good money turning Derby in a decade. Let's face it he has history for doing this.
Gibson will be aware of this and strategically he will not want a strong, savvy opponent next season if we don't go up, it makes sense to weaken them if he can. Morally I don't see the outrage at Gibson going after a football club that has behaved cynically and holding the authorities feet to the fire.
 
Andy_W said:
The chance of us going up was probably less than 1 in 4, and then the chance of us staying up was probably 1 in 2 at best, going up via playoffs. So our best hope would be around 1 in 8 of that cash benefit, so effectively look at it as an 8th of what that would have been, at best. Then also factor that we could have gone up, spent money, and then come back down which would have probably put us in a worse position than we are now.
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I think this is effectively what the 45mill calculation is but with a calculation for staying up for a second season (which is greater than zero, even a 5% chance of staying up is worth circa 8mill, 5mill the following season + 3mill for finishing 17th), with a few other nuances.
 
BoroMart said:
I think this is effectively what the 45mill calculation is but with a calculation for staying up for a second season (which is greater than zero, even a 5% chance of staying up is worth circa 8mill, 5mill the following season + 3mill for finishing 17th), with a few other nuances.
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The chance of going up, coming down and going broke and fading into obscurity is quite high too though.

I think 45m is a pipe dream, I'd be surprised if we got more than 10m, and expect an undisclosed settlement of around 5m, paid over a few years.
 
Price of Football - the latest Price of Football podcast looks at this with clearest breakdown I've heard yet. Mel Morris still owning stadium is massive issue that is holding things up as much as the threatened legal claims. Essentially as it stands prospective buyers are buying no more than the name unless Morris relinquishes stadium. The legal claims are a great stick for Derby fans to berate the world with but essentially Morris could be doing more to help them still.
 
Andy_W said:
That's what he will be doing, to not miss out on the purchase, and he could fight Morris over a number of years, as he's got the cash to just wait. But he may even just write it off as the compensation will likely be low (in the grand scheme of things).

Can't see us getting much at all mind, they will just work out what our chance of going up, and then down again was, and average out our loss/ gain was, over a number of various probability outcomes, like an equity calculation.

The chance of us going up was probably less than 1 in 4, and then the chance of us staying up was probably 1 in 2 at best, going up via playoffs. So our best hope would be around 1 in 8 of that cash benefit, so effectively look at it as an 8th of what that would have been, at best. Then also factor that we could have gone up, spent money, and then come back down which would have probably put us in a worse position than we are now.

We only had about 3 or 4 players good enough for the prem, so would have been an exceptionally costly overhaul, we've probably dodged a bullet, as daft as it sounds, we're in a much stronger position now with regard to team strength and think we've cleared a lot of debts too.
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Andy we really haven't cleared any debt whatsoever. We have amortised some players and reduced creditors that way, but we have massively increased the debt to Gibson O'Neill because of the massive losses we have made in 2020 and presumably 2021 too.
I do agree that Gibson is acting to get Ashley or a new owner to pay proper value for a Club that could be a very strong opponent under new ownership if they go for a song and have an owner who will carry the debt like Ashley could. It is just what he did at Newcastle.
 
Andy_W said:
The chance of going up, coming down and going broke and fading into obscurity is quite high too though.
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You tend to come down with a lot more saleable assets, Norwich absolutely stunk the prem out last time, but still sold 2 player for 60 million in Godfrey and Beundia based on prem performances.

But ultimately I think the 45mill is a position to broker a deal for about 10m because of all the other factors.
 
Diego said:
Before completing take over at Derby. According to the Sun.
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If true fantastic news.
Money for nothing......
If Ashley is going for it he needs to crack on........ Rooney has done an amazing job and he'll be off soon.... maybe even to Everton.
 
BoroMart said:
You tend to come down with a lot more saleable assets, Norwich absolutely stunk the prem out last time, but still sold 2 player for 60 million in Godfrey and Beundia based on prem performances.

But ultimately I think the 45mill is a position to broker a deal for about 10m because of all the other factors.
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Added to another £10 million for DJ Ed Spence and that's the summer spending sorted if we don't go up this year, with enough aside to keep us ticking over for FFP too.

Hopefully.
 
indeedido said:
Andy we really haven't cleared any debt whatsoever. We have amortised some players and reduced creditors that way, but we have massively increased the debt to Gibson O'Neill because of the massive losses we have made in 2020 and presumably 2021 too.
I do agree that Gibson is acting to get Ashley or a new owner to pay proper value for a Club that could be a very strong opponent under new ownership if they go for a song and have an owner who will carry the debt like Ashley could. It is just what he did at Newcastle.
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Yeah, what I meant by that is we've offloaded players of little value/ ability, and replaced them with good players, with increasing value, we've replaced a lot of the expensive dead wood, so to speak, and it will save us money going forward.

I took Covid out of the equation, as that's wrecked everyone (so there will be some leeway given for that), was more looking at us comparatively to the rest.
 
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