junos_boots
Well-known member
These prices for Ashley to buy the club that I keep seeing reported 30 to 50 million. I assume that is just to clear debts because whoever 'owns' the club at the minute can't be due any money surely.
What is clear from their boards is that they don't know either, but have all, to a man, made an assumption that a) Gibson is at fault for holding this up, b) the claims from Boro and Wycombe will fail and c) that the EFL are corrupt. None of that has any evidence from them of course, it's just prejudiced by their feelingsBeen reading their forum just now and I’m not sure where I stand on this whole Gibson vs Derby thing. I don’t 100% know the ins and outs of the whole subject but I couldn’t imagine being in the position where you could be partially blamed (rightly or wrongly) for a club going out of business and knowing what that would mean to such an amount of people. He must be confident with his case.
Depends, he holds assets that he paid out of his pocket and might want some return on that. What I've read is the total cost of taking on derby, debts and all right now is about 100m, and that doesn't include the Boro and Wycombe claims. But who knowsThese prices for Ashley to buy the club that I keep seeing reported 30 to 50 million. I assume that is just to clear debts because whoever 'owns' the club at the minute can't be due any money surely.
The big question I suppose is what is in administration. Is it just the football club or is it the holding company that paid for the ground a few years ago as well?Depends, he holds assets that he paid out of his pocket and might want some return on that. What I've read is the total cost of taking on derby, debts and all right now is about 100m, and that doesn't include the Boro and Wycombe claims. But who knows
That's what he will be doing, to not miss out on the purchase, and he could fight Morris over a number of years, as he's got the cash to just wait. But he may even just write it off as the compensation will likely be low (in the grand scheme of things).If Ashley pays out then surely he can then fight the odious Morris in courts to get his money back, if we actually won our claim then Derby were in the wrong at the time & who was in charge of Derby back then, not Ashley
That is what has enraged Gibson - he believes their club is worth over £70m and that the whole thing is being underpriced. That is what attracts a man like Ashley, he knows a bargain when he sees one. I imagine Ashley could well do a deal with Gibson and Wycombe and buy Derby, writing off the debts. Gibson is effectively waiting to do business.These prices for Ashley to buy the club that I keep seeing reported 30 to 50 million. I assume that is just to clear debts because whoever 'owns' the club at the minute can't be due any money surely.
We'll have a free Lonsdale kit net year, training with £5 footballs and drinking 1 litre cups of tea.Ashely is going to give us hard cash though isn't he and not just a huge credit note to spend at SD and USC, as surely there are only so many Lacoste trainers and Hugo Boss jumpers one person can own?
He likely won't have much of an idea though, you can't tell a companies value by looking at the accounts, and he won't have access to the information to make an accurate valuation. The valuation will change depending on how many points they get too, as it will have a massive impact on projected earnings, i.e they will be worth more now, after their good run, than before, but the valuation was probably done before that (which is fair enough).That is what has enraged Gibson - he believes their club is worth over £70m and that the whole thing is being underpriced. That is what attracts a man like Ashley, he knows a bargain when he sees one. I imagine Ashley could well do a deal with Gibson and Wycombe and buy Derby, writing off the debts. Gibson is effectively waiting to do business.
I think this is effectively what the 45mill calculation is but with a calculation for staying up for a second season (which is greater than zero, even a 5% chance of staying up is worth circa 8mill, 5mill the following season + 3mill for finishing 17th), with a few other nuances.The chance of us going up was probably less than 1 in 4, and then the chance of us staying up was probably 1 in 2 at best, going up via playoffs. So our best hope would be around 1 in 8 of that cash benefit, so effectively look at it as an 8th of what that would have been, at best. Then also factor that we could have gone up, spent money, and then come back down which would have probably put us in a worse position than we are now.
The chance of going up, coming down and going broke and fading into obscurity is quite high too though.I think this is effectively what the 45mill calculation is but with a calculation for staying up for a second season (which is greater than zero, even a 5% chance of staying up is worth circa 8mill, 5mill the following season + 3mill for finishing 17th), with a few other nuances.
Andy we really haven't cleared any debt whatsoever. We have amortised some players and reduced creditors that way, but we have massively increased the debt to Gibson O'Neill because of the massive losses we have made in 2020 and presumably 2021 too.That's what he will be doing, to not miss out on the purchase, and he could fight Morris over a number of years, as he's got the cash to just wait. But he may even just write it off as the compensation will likely be low (in the grand scheme of things).
Can't see us getting much at all mind, they will just work out what our chance of going up, and then down again was, and average out our loss/ gain was, over a number of various probability outcomes, like an equity calculation.
The chance of us going up was probably less than 1 in 4, and then the chance of us staying up was probably 1 in 2 at best, going up via playoffs. So our best hope would be around 1 in 8 of that cash benefit, so effectively look at it as an 8th of what that would have been, at best. Then also factor that we could have gone up, spent money, and then come back down which would have probably put us in a worse position than we are now.
We only had about 3 or 4 players good enough for the prem, so would have been an exceptionally costly overhaul, we've probably dodged a bullet, as daft as it sounds, we're in a much stronger position now with regard to team strength and think we've cleared a lot of debts too.
You tend to come down with a lot more saleable assets, Norwich absolutely stunk the prem out last time, but still sold 2 player for 60 million in Godfrey and Beundia based on prem performances.The chance of going up, coming down and going broke and fading into obscurity is quite high too though.
If true fantastic news.Before completing take over at Derby. According to the Sun.
Added to another £10 million for DJ Ed Spence and that's the summer spending sorted if we don't go up this year, with enough aside to keep us ticking over for FFP too.You tend to come down with a lot more saleable assets, Norwich absolutely stunk the prem out last time, but still sold 2 player for 60 million in Godfrey and Beundia based on prem performances.
But ultimately I think the 45mill is a position to broker a deal for about 10m because of all the other factors.
Yeah, what I meant by that is we've offloaded players of little value/ ability, and replaced them with good players, with increasing value, we've replaced a lot of the expensive dead wood, so to speak, and it will save us money going forward.Andy we really haven't cleared any debt whatsoever. We have amortised some players and reduced creditors that way, but we have massively increased the debt to Gibson O'Neill because of the massive losses we have made in 2020 and presumably 2021 too.
I do agree that Gibson is acting to get Ashley or a new owner to pay proper value for a Club that could be a very strong opponent under new ownership if they go for a song and have an owner who will carry the debt like Ashley could. It is just what he did at Newcastle.