The end?

Mwelolo said:
Their terms will involve keeping Crimea

I can’t see Ukraine agreeing to that.

More likely a ceasefire than surrender I think.
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It will be, but with the Gains the UA are making every day, the chances of the RF actually keeping hold of Crimea are slim. There will be a bloodbath and massive losses on both sides if UA storm crimea. I suspect they may try to cut them off, and force them to surrender that way.
 
The articles/terms presented were for surrender.
It won't happen quickly though... unless Ukrainian forces make it an imperative for Russia. It is only a matter of time before the politicians understand their military generals. This is slower inRussia because of the historical hostility between politicians and the army.
 
johnmfc said:
It will be, but with the Gains the UA are making every day, the chances of the RF actually keeping hold of Crimea are slim. There will be a bloodbath and massive losses on both sides if UA storm crimea. I suspect they may try to cut them off, and force them to surrender that way.
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Sensible thing would be to cut them off and hit them with rockets until they surrender
 
BoroMart said:
Diplomacy is not relevant, this is about democracy and and self-determination. Ukraine owe russia nothing, they certainly shouldn't be shaping their future based on political pressure from a neighbour.

No not really. But a line is required somewhere where it could be possible but we're not near that line right now.
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I completely agree Russia is in the wrong, but everybody knew it was a rogue state (see BoroLads post above) with a nutter in charge.

This geographical area has been unsettled for centuries, for example I have a friend whose Dad was born in Lviv when it was in Poland.

I understand the political freedom argument but I don’t think the outcome has been at all good for ordinary Ukrainians even though Zelensky has become a heroic household name.

Their cities are blasted, millions are refugees, the power grid is smashed, but at least they have their freedom to join the EU and NATO (If they will let them in).
 
HolgateCorner said:
I understand the political freedom argument but I don’t think the outcome has been at all good for ordinary Ukrainians even though Zelensky has become a heroic household name.
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and bowing to russian invasion wouldn't have been good for ordinary ukrainians either. The reality is that Russia decided to be oppressive, Ukraine could have just said ok, we will not look to join EU or NATO or anything else, and Russia would then tell them even more they expect, and then eventually just take over anyway. Or they could stand up and fight for their rights.

The outcome hasn't been good for ukranian people for one reason, because they have a bully of a neighbour. That isn't in their control, but they are making sure that they take control of what they can and are making sure russia will never try nonsense like this again
 
What happens in the next five years could be far more significant than the last thirty.
If (and it seems to be a forgone conclusion) Russia lose Crimea and face massive costs in compensation, what happens next.
Ukraine must be restored. The RF are responsible.
But we tried much the same approach with Germany in WW1. Didn't end well...
 
Hap said:
What happens in the next five years could be far more significant than the last thirty.
If (and it seems to be a forgone conclusion) Russia lose Crimea and face massive costs in compensation, what happens next.
Ukraine must be restored. The RF are responsible.
But we tried much the same approach with Germany in WW1. Didn't end well...
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It has to be a stick and carrot to rehabilitate them into the international community.
 
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BoroMart said:
and bowing to russian invasion wouldn't have been good for ordinary ukrainians either. The reality is that Russia decided to be oppressive, Ukraine could have just said ok, we will not look to join EU or NATO or anything else, and Russia would then tell them even more they expect, and then eventually just take over anyway. Or they could stand up and fight for their rights.
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There are a lot of presumptions in that post, I think the point I was making was you sense the stresses and work to avoid the invasion in the first place.

And I don’t just mean the Ukraine politicians, I mean Biden and co as well, they are up to all sorts behind the scenes.

For example whilst they argue about missiles entering Poland and the Ukrainian people suffer dreadfully, the west still buys Russian gas.
 
Assuming that Putin is gone then the west must help Russia. The people of Russia deserve the chance to have a better fairer country. We should hold out a hand of friendship. A stable Russia bereft of any Imperial ambitions is in everyone's interest if we seek to punish them for the sins of their former ruler we just create a fertile bed of resentment that may well produce another Putin in ten to twenty years time.
 
BoroMart said:
It has to be a stick and carrot to rehabilitate them into the international community.
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Not sure what that looks like.
Muttley said:
Assuming that Putin is gone then the west must help Russia. The people of Russia deserve the chance to have a better fairer country. We should hold out a hand of friendship. A stable Russia bereft of any Imperial ambitions is in everyone's interest if we seek to punish them for the sins of their former ruler we just create a fertile bed of resentment that may well produce another Putin in ten to twenty years time.
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Absolutely spot on 👍
 
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HolgateCorner said:
There are a lot of presumptions in that post, I think the point I was making was you sense the stresses and work to avoid the invasion in the first place.
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The invasion was already underway politically over a decade before.

Biden isn't invading ukraine, that's presumption.

Russian oil and gas will be weened away to next to nothing
 
BoroMart said:
The invasion was already underway politically over a decade before.

Biden isn't invading ukraine, that's presumption.

Russian oil and gas will be weened away to next to nothing
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That's kind of my point. If we reduce the RF to the point that they have nothing to lose, how do you negotiate with them? They have nothing to lose...
 
In what is a very serious (and interesting) thread, I’d like to just take a moment to pause and acknowledge the brilliance of this phrase, from Borolad‘s mate -

‘so much that they are farting watermelons over it.’

I need to incorporate that phrase into everyday life. Next time my wife gives me a hard time for loading the dishwasher wrong or some other such massive problem, I shall retort with
‘Ok pet, don’t go farting watermelons over it.‘

That’ll stump her.👍
 
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FabioPorkpie said:
In what is a very serious (and interesting) thread, I’d like to just take a moment to pause and acknowledge the brilliance of this phrase, from Borolad‘s mate -

‘so much that they are farting watermelons over it.’

I need to incorporate that phase into everyday life. Next time my wife gives me a hard time for loading the dishwasher wrong or some other such massive problem, I shall retort with
‘Ok pet, don’t go farting watermelons over it.‘

That’ll stump her.👍
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I salute you both for your clarity of speech.
 
Hap said:
That's kind of my point. If we reduce the RF to the point that they have nothing to lose, how do you negotiate with them? They have nothing to lose...
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They need international trade, it might need to be in other industries rather than oil and gas. That's what they have to lose, North Korea went down the pariah state route, it's been a disaster for them.
 
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Crimea is not as straight forward as the West want to portray it.

Depending on who you believe the majority of their citizens want to to be part of Russia.

The 2014 referendum result is hotly contested however it is wrong to deny that Russia has huge support there.

I do think that, if they can, the Ukraine should take it (by force or negoatiation) and re-install the pre-invasion boundaries but an open and transparent election should be held, and this commitment should be made now.
 
HolgateCorner said:
There are a lot of presumptions in that post, I think the point I was making was you sense the stresses and work to avoid the invasion in the first place.

And I don’t just mean the Ukraine politicians, I mean Biden and co as well, they are up to all sorts behind the scenes.

For example whilst they argue about missiles entering Poland and the Ukrainian people suffer dreadfully, the west still buys Russian gas.
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While I don't disagree, do you not think the diplomats have been trying to do exactly that? They've been treading on egg shells around Putin for decades to try and avoid provoking him. They have literally let him get away with murder and pretended he was a legitimately elected leader.

All the while he's worked tirelessly behind the scenes to destabilise and weaken the west.

There's an argument that we've been too lenient with him and it emboldened him to take the action he did. But if we'd taken a harder line who's to say that wouldn't have ended in the same result? And in fact that might have provoked other countries (eg China) to be more involved and side with Russia. At least now it's clearly, to any reasonable observer, unprovoked. The likes of China seem content with just tutting from the sidelines and watching with interest.

The bloke is an unpredictable, delusional, psychopathic madman. I personally don't think it really mattered what stance the west took towards him, it was always likely to end like this. This (trying to rebuild the USSR) was always his endgame.

I suppose in hindsight what we perhaps should have been was better prepared for it.
 
Il like the idea of free elections in Crimea, which I think is a different proposition from other parts of Ukraine. I do wonder how practical and achievable that is though.

I can see a scenario where there is pressure for a cease fire when the Russians are pushed back into Crimea.

We could then see how much control USA/ the west has over Ukraine if the will is not for them to invade.

Could they carry on without western support?
 
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