HolgateCorner
Well-known member
I hope so, I hope Zelensky stays level headed despite the appalling devastation caused to the Ukraine by Putin, I think he would lose the goodwill if he turned aggressor.
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Have a watch of Konstantin above. He doesn't have all the information from our man but his analysis is pretty good.... if he knew how sick Putin is, it would only be marginally different.
BoroMart
Well-known member
Ukraine isn't the invader, why are we going down this hypothetical route? Seems a bizarre attempt to flip reality. ukraine are simply trying to restore their national boundaries and save their peoples lives
Last edited:
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
This a Boro forum not the UN Council, we can discuss and debate can’t we?
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
He has a good pot of tea to keep him going
BoroMart
Well-known member
you can but why try and paint Ukraine as some empire building country, they haven't stolen anyones land and any incursion into russia would simply be to stop supplies coming to the front line. So yes, you might have the right to say it, but my point is why say it? Because it's so far off in the realms of fantasy that it isn't really worth it
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
I read threads like this and pick up plenty of other points of view which I haven’t considered, including yours, there is no harm in that, it doesn’t change the world.
Lefty
Well-known member
This is a really good point and at least we did learn the lessons of WW1 Versailles Treaty consequences, in the West at least.
Financially, god knows how much this will cost in terms of rebuilding damaged property, compensation for deaths and the staggering cost of the munitions used. Russia is resource rich though, so it should be manageable if done sensibly and if Russia can be made to stick to the agreement.
One of the problems of Versailles was that a myth was allowed to grow up internally in Germany that the army was not defeated and it was therefore a nation betrayed by it's Politicians. This allowed the rise once again of a militaristic far right movement based on lies to take advantage of the economic woes that came with the stock market crash.
The Nazi's were actually declining in power and popularity prior to that, but they only got a base, finance and other support because of the military and the myth they fostered that they were betrayed by the politicians. The mistake of not countering that narrative was deadly.
Something similar needs to be avoided in Russia. There are pervading myths running through Russian society historically which are going to take a lot of countering. There are myths about the Soviet victory in WW2. Then there are the myths about this conflict. All need addressing.
There will need to be a major restructuring of Russian media. The hawks and state propaganda need countering and replacing. School education needs sustained rewriting. This shift will be huge and profound. So much so the sort of 'balance' that is allowed on the BBC ie presenting both opinions and letting the viewer pick which one he prefers, or even worse the kind of news media that allows the likes of Fox or Gbeebies to flourish is too dangerous to allow. Veils need to be lifted from eyes.
The Putin regime needs breaking. The Oligarchs and Kleptokrats need breaking. The old KGB officers need imprisoning or retiring from influence. Then they need replacing with sustained social democracy to fill the void, otherwise another strong man will fill the void. Every country has a significant number of people who like 'strong men' as leaders, but Russia has a longer tradition than most, so that trap is all too easy to fall into too soon again.
The whole country is rotten to the core, its not just the oligarchs. It's just one huge mafioso.
All of the judiciary take backhanders. Anyone bucking the system at any level simply gets bumped off.
All the populace know and accept it for what it is.
Far from an easy fix and very likely that someone as bad or maybe worse than Don Putin will replace him.
Mafia with Nuclear Weapons
Lefty
Well-known member
I agree, but popular myths that Russia wasn't defeated, that there was some sort of betrayal, that the war was justified, these must not be allowed to establish, then fester and grow, otherwise a second invasion will come along at some point but without similar military mistakes, because it will have popular backing.
Ok, there's a long one here, covering quite a bit of the ground we've been discussing.
As usual, some speculation and opinion but based on good intelligence.
" The Quiet
...before the storm.
On missiles
For those who enjoy keeping count, Russia now has enough missiles for two more barrages. .
I was a bit surprised on this one, I assumed Russia would like to keep some around for a rainy day.
Do not be surprised if they go for broke one of these days and go for broke.
Russians
The forces of Kherson has been moved to Melitopol, Crimea landbridges, Vuhledar and Bakhmut (anyone surprised?).
At Bakhmut the Russians are pushing hard again with the newly arrived troops that are battlehardened and better equiped and trained. So far Ukraine is pushing them back, but it is quite a bit of a harder slog now. For now this is a tossup, but with a slight advantage to Ukraine.
Surovikin seems to have spotted the same thing that I have written about in previous musings. He has concentrated the best troops available here to try to storm 3 key points held by Ukraine. His problem is that he is storming upward to higher ground and against superiour artillery.
It is incredibly bloody, but the Russians are gaining slowly here. Ukraine is though moving in reinforcements and more heavy gear that has become available after Kherson I fell. Here for now there is a slight advantage to Russia, but that will end soon.
But, since Russia has caught on this is most likely not where Ukraine will make their next push.
Surovikin, every Pundit on the planet, the Goat, and everyone else is pointing to Melitopol being a marvelous spot to attack towards.
It is not. Initially the Ukrainins would be flanked to the East and frontlined to the south and with a huge honking lake leaving very little room to manouver. To do it safelly Ukraine would have to punch out more than 50 kilometers of the Russian line as a beginning of the offensive.
Later on the entire offensive would be flanked in East, South and West... Basically they would build themselves a pocket to be fired on from all sides.
But, with Surovikin following the script a lot of troops are locked down in the defence, and Ukraine have a lot of forces ready to go here.
Over at the landbridges to Crimea mystery missiles and mystery drones have started to disrupt the Russians as they are digging in and pouring concrete. So far not a lot, and the Russians are calling it a vacation spot. That will change.
Ukraine
In Luhansk the Ukrainians are slowly slogging forward against the Russians on the Svatove/Kreminna line. Surovikin has put in some good units among the Mobiks, but it does not change a lot for the Ukrainians. At the going rate they will have liberated all of Luhansk around March.
Kherson II
At an undisclosed place in Southeastern Kherson our intrepid Ltn. Colonel is eating borstj and shelling any concentration of Mobiks that she can find, and the few depots that are still left.
At a slow and steady pace more and more heavy equipment is being brought across the bridges and by barges, the pace is slowly picking up as the repairs progress on the 3 bridges.
Ukraine now control the Kinburn spit down to Hero'iske and M777 artillery are now in place. The Russian lines are bing hit hard all the time from the other side of the Dnipro Bug and from the Spit itself. Most uncomfortable for the Mobiks there. There are no signs of the Russians trying to reinforce and push, they know that it is hopeless due to Ukrainian artillery.
There is also some lighter vehicles being delivered and a push further is expected in the coming weeks.
At the 3 beach heads across Dnipro Ukraine are forming Brigade strength mechanised and tank formations.
To me it looks like 3 + 3 Brigades plus air defence, logistics, artilllery battalions, the works really...
In military vernacular we are talking about 3 heavy combined arms divisions plus 1 support division, ie. an entire army corps that is leaning to the heavy side of things.
Getting something of that blooming size and strength in place will take about two weeks with all the supplies needed. Might even take a week or so longer due to logistics issues.
Just to put things in perspective, we are talking about more tanks than Russia has in total, supported by the latest in armoured vehicles that the west has chucked into Ukraine.
Obviously Surovikin is seeing all of this, and he is doing what he can to send reinforcements to bolster the hapless Mobiks that are milling about in the desert. Ukraine equally obviously knows what Surovikin is doing, so they are sending out units to cut the roads inwards.
In about 20 days Ukraine will unleash things, and it will inevitably end up like for the Iraqi's as Stormin' Norman came thundering across the desert. It will be about 100 hours of tank manouvre warfare and that will be it for Kherson II.
I have previously written that Ukraine will pull a magical rabit out of the **** and do something totally unexpected as per usual, as they arrive at the border to Crimea. I even though they would do an amphibious assault as a flanking manouvre.
I no longer think that will be the case (bound to change again I guess...), my currently opinion is that the magical rabbit will be Ukraine punching a hole head on at the landbridge, question is more if they will bomb the shnabel out of the place first, or just punch directly before the Russians expect them to do so.
The reason I think so is that Ukraine is starting to be a bit nervous that decissions might soon be taken away from them.
But, if they can continue to punch hard a couple of times more the decissions made will be tasting far better for Ukraine.
The feck off factor of having soldiers inside Crimea, or having Crimea totally should not be underestimated.
It is not like Ukraine does not have time. But, they also want things over with. The unofficial date is during the summer of 2023, but there is a proviso. If all hell breaks loose with China the war in Ukraine is over on the same day... and that is setting a flame under the **** of them.
In the land of Muskovites
The narrative in Moscow is changing, with more and louder voices screaming for negotiations, and the word surrender is even uttered directly on TV.
The population is being readied for what is coming.
The Leadership want out from the war they inherited.
A plan seems to have be devised. As far as we understand "Putin" will declare a general withdrawal, he will then "die" from the workload that the war put on him, and the Leadership will officially take over until an "election" can be held, the Leadership will then officially take over, under the proviso that it will in the future be a group of leaders leading under a "Secretary", a "Politburo" of sorts.
They are even talking directly with three candidates to take place either as Secretary or member of the Politburo. These 3 are "respected" oppositionleaders that will bring cudos from the West, and cudos they need.
In Petyak sits the only one not talked to, and he will die prior to this happening, or just remain there.
Do note that this is the current Leadership's idea, but they seem to think that they can sell this to the three candidate members, the population, and to the west...
Novopolitburo: Kara-Murza, Kasparov, Kasyanov, Lavrov, Mishustin, Nabiullina, Naryshkin, Peskov & Soyghurt.
It is a very Russian thing.
Basically they will go: Hey, you do not like all of us, but we are reforming with good guys. And we will secure the nukes, reform the economy, and not take a dump on the carpet like the former guy. And as a piece of cake they will make either Kara-Murza, Kasparov or Kasyanov Secretary of The Russian Federated Republics (or some such...), they will also state some pure huoy about increased governemental role for the republics.
This is a bit speculative, but the talk in Muskovskyland is going along these lines, and it was thrown out as a talking point by Naryshkin in Ankara, that a mixture of old and new more western leaning leaders would take over soon, and that the nukes would be secure.
Burns understood it like this, if we are allowed to sort out our internal **** we will go from Ukraine, and we will behave like good little Russians again.
Negotiations
Russia
A list of people to be excluded from any war crimes tribunals have been handed over. Peskov, Lavrov, Soyghurt, Mishustin, Naryshkin and Nabiullina. The rest are thrown under the bus.
And a list of about 100 names whose sanctions will be lifted in a first stage.
Crimea will be signed over as a Russian Republic for perpetuity.
Russia will immediately walk home.
Ukraine
Surrender at following terms:
-Russia home immediately and ceasefire
-Russia keeps nothing
-Full reparations
-War criminals will be handed over to Hague or Kyiv (but seems open to immunize new leadership if it speeds things up, Soyghurt is a problem though)
-Lifting of sanctions on non-war criminals not an issue
This may sound as a big difference in standpoint.
-Crimea, only a point if it is in Russian hands... See why Ukraine is pushing so hard for it?
-War criminals to court, since Russia is asking for immunities for some they are most likely open to chuck everyone else under the bus, so less of a problem. It is here a point where Ukraine can push against Crimea above.
-Reparations, Russia know they will have to pay, they will though haggle like fishmongerer's at the Kasbah... This is probably the point where the EU get shafted with the difference between what is impounded in the west of the Russian funds and the rest of the cost. After all, it will be at least a decade before Russia can pay anything, if ever.
To speed things along it has been lofted an idea.
Instead of getting Crimea, Russia will get to lease the Naval port of Sevastopol for 99 years, but it will be Ukrainian.
Obviously Zelenskyy grumped here... but was told to think about it, and think hard.
Initial reaction from Lavrov seems to be: We need to think about how to sell that as a victory somehow...
Obviously everything will be blamed upon Putin, but by then he will be even deader...
It may end up a bit different, but this will turn out to be conceptually correct in some form.
And everyone will be somewhat happy, somewhat miffed, and problem solved.
The Future
Across The Collective West weapons production is spooling up like it was 1912... it will not stop in any way.
We learned that we need huge stockpiles, and that they will need to be stockpiled closer to the border.
We learned that we need standing armies close to the border.
Infrastructure will be built towards the border.
Positions will be taken.
The West learned that there are parts of the world that is ready to use arms against us.
The West learned that we are truly hated by many.
The lesson learned is that we need to be proactive.
The lesson learned is that we will have to solve our remaining border problem.
Time to weaken the enemy's economy.
Time to sunder the enemy's politics.
Time to go to war.
The date is soon 1914, the archduke will be shot once more.
China.
The opening blow was the EU CO2 tax on Imported goods... it is permanently blowing chunks out of the Chinese economy. And, at the same time China can't argue it, because environment... It is genius. China can reciprocate with exactly the same taxes and customs fees, but to what point and effect? None.
It will probably be a very different war. It will be a slow and thoughtful dismantling of China.
There might be hotter periods, but no all out war, at least I hope so.
Anyway, I am now at the customary point of rambling.
It has been a tiring week to say the least.
It is time for my sofa, an exorbitantly expensive singlemalt, and read Mark Helprin's Swan Lake.
I look forward to falling asleep mid first page after a sip or two.
In the undying words of Murtaugh, I'm to old for this ****.
That reminds me, I hate Carl By1dt. The ****** is 73, sleeps 4 hours and work 20 hours, 7 days a week, and still somehow looks perky all the time. I guess that is why he is running the world and not me.
"
B*ldt was the arbiter between Lavrov and Kuleba at G20.
As usual, some speculation and opinion but based on good intelligence.
" The Quiet
...before the storm.
On missiles
For those who enjoy keeping count, Russia now has enough missiles for two more barrages. .
I was a bit surprised on this one, I assumed Russia would like to keep some around for a rainy day.
Do not be surprised if they go for broke one of these days and go for broke.
Russians
The forces of Kherson has been moved to Melitopol, Crimea landbridges, Vuhledar and Bakhmut (anyone surprised?).
At Bakhmut the Russians are pushing hard again with the newly arrived troops that are battlehardened and better equiped and trained. So far Ukraine is pushing them back, but it is quite a bit of a harder slog now. For now this is a tossup, but with a slight advantage to Ukraine.
Surovikin seems to have spotted the same thing that I have written about in previous musings. He has concentrated the best troops available here to try to storm 3 key points held by Ukraine. His problem is that he is storming upward to higher ground and against superiour artillery.
It is incredibly bloody, but the Russians are gaining slowly here. Ukraine is though moving in reinforcements and more heavy gear that has become available after Kherson I fell. Here for now there is a slight advantage to Russia, but that will end soon.
But, since Russia has caught on this is most likely not where Ukraine will make their next push.
Surovikin, every Pundit on the planet, the Goat, and everyone else is pointing to Melitopol being a marvelous spot to attack towards.
It is not. Initially the Ukrainins would be flanked to the East and frontlined to the south and with a huge honking lake leaving very little room to manouver. To do it safelly Ukraine would have to punch out more than 50 kilometers of the Russian line as a beginning of the offensive.
Later on the entire offensive would be flanked in East, South and West... Basically they would build themselves a pocket to be fired on from all sides.
But, with Surovikin following the script a lot of troops are locked down in the defence, and Ukraine have a lot of forces ready to go here.
Over at the landbridges to Crimea mystery missiles and mystery drones have started to disrupt the Russians as they are digging in and pouring concrete. So far not a lot, and the Russians are calling it a vacation spot. That will change.
Ukraine
In Luhansk the Ukrainians are slowly slogging forward against the Russians on the Svatove/Kreminna line. Surovikin has put in some good units among the Mobiks, but it does not change a lot for the Ukrainians. At the going rate they will have liberated all of Luhansk around March.
Kherson II
At an undisclosed place in Southeastern Kherson our intrepid Ltn. Colonel is eating borstj and shelling any concentration of Mobiks that she can find, and the few depots that are still left.
At a slow and steady pace more and more heavy equipment is being brought across the bridges and by barges, the pace is slowly picking up as the repairs progress on the 3 bridges.
Ukraine now control the Kinburn spit down to Hero'iske and M777 artillery are now in place. The Russian lines are bing hit hard all the time from the other side of the Dnipro Bug and from the Spit itself. Most uncomfortable for the Mobiks there. There are no signs of the Russians trying to reinforce and push, they know that it is hopeless due to Ukrainian artillery.
There is also some lighter vehicles being delivered and a push further is expected in the coming weeks.
At the 3 beach heads across Dnipro Ukraine are forming Brigade strength mechanised and tank formations.
To me it looks like 3 + 3 Brigades plus air defence, logistics, artilllery battalions, the works really...
In military vernacular we are talking about 3 heavy combined arms divisions plus 1 support division, ie. an entire army corps that is leaning to the heavy side of things.
Getting something of that blooming size and strength in place will take about two weeks with all the supplies needed. Might even take a week or so longer due to logistics issues.
Just to put things in perspective, we are talking about more tanks than Russia has in total, supported by the latest in armoured vehicles that the west has chucked into Ukraine.
Obviously Surovikin is seeing all of this, and he is doing what he can to send reinforcements to bolster the hapless Mobiks that are milling about in the desert. Ukraine equally obviously knows what Surovikin is doing, so they are sending out units to cut the roads inwards.
In about 20 days Ukraine will unleash things, and it will inevitably end up like for the Iraqi's as Stormin' Norman came thundering across the desert. It will be about 100 hours of tank manouvre warfare and that will be it for Kherson II.
I have previously written that Ukraine will pull a magical rabit out of the **** and do something totally unexpected as per usual, as they arrive at the border to Crimea. I even though they would do an amphibious assault as a flanking manouvre.
I no longer think that will be the case (bound to change again I guess...), my currently opinion is that the magical rabbit will be Ukraine punching a hole head on at the landbridge, question is more if they will bomb the shnabel out of the place first, or just punch directly before the Russians expect them to do so.
The reason I think so is that Ukraine is starting to be a bit nervous that decissions might soon be taken away from them.
But, if they can continue to punch hard a couple of times more the decissions made will be tasting far better for Ukraine.
The feck off factor of having soldiers inside Crimea, or having Crimea totally should not be underestimated.
It is not like Ukraine does not have time. But, they also want things over with. The unofficial date is during the summer of 2023, but there is a proviso. If all hell breaks loose with China the war in Ukraine is over on the same day... and that is setting a flame under the **** of them.
In the land of Muskovites
The narrative in Moscow is changing, with more and louder voices screaming for negotiations, and the word surrender is even uttered directly on TV.
The population is being readied for what is coming.
The Leadership want out from the war they inherited.
A plan seems to have be devised. As far as we understand "Putin" will declare a general withdrawal, he will then "die" from the workload that the war put on him, and the Leadership will officially take over until an "election" can be held, the Leadership will then officially take over, under the proviso that it will in the future be a group of leaders leading under a "Secretary", a "Politburo" of sorts.
They are even talking directly with three candidates to take place either as Secretary or member of the Politburo. These 3 are "respected" oppositionleaders that will bring cudos from the West, and cudos they need.
In Petyak sits the only one not talked to, and he will die prior to this happening, or just remain there.
Do note that this is the current Leadership's idea, but they seem to think that they can sell this to the three candidate members, the population, and to the west...
Novopolitburo: Kara-Murza, Kasparov, Kasyanov, Lavrov, Mishustin, Nabiullina, Naryshkin, Peskov & Soyghurt.
It is a very Russian thing.
Basically they will go: Hey, you do not like all of us, but we are reforming with good guys. And we will secure the nukes, reform the economy, and not take a dump on the carpet like the former guy. And as a piece of cake they will make either Kara-Murza, Kasparov or Kasyanov Secretary of The Russian Federated Republics (or some such...), they will also state some pure huoy about increased governemental role for the republics.
This is a bit speculative, but the talk in Muskovskyland is going along these lines, and it was thrown out as a talking point by Naryshkin in Ankara, that a mixture of old and new more western leaning leaders would take over soon, and that the nukes would be secure.
Burns understood it like this, if we are allowed to sort out our internal **** we will go from Ukraine, and we will behave like good little Russians again.
Negotiations
Russia
A list of people to be excluded from any war crimes tribunals have been handed over. Peskov, Lavrov, Soyghurt, Mishustin, Naryshkin and Nabiullina. The rest are thrown under the bus.
And a list of about 100 names whose sanctions will be lifted in a first stage.
Crimea will be signed over as a Russian Republic for perpetuity.
Russia will immediately walk home.
Ukraine
Surrender at following terms:
-Russia home immediately and ceasefire
-Russia keeps nothing
-Full reparations
-War criminals will be handed over to Hague or Kyiv (but seems open to immunize new leadership if it speeds things up, Soyghurt is a problem though)
-Lifting of sanctions on non-war criminals not an issue
This may sound as a big difference in standpoint.
-Crimea, only a point if it is in Russian hands... See why Ukraine is pushing so hard for it?
-War criminals to court, since Russia is asking for immunities for some they are most likely open to chuck everyone else under the bus, so less of a problem. It is here a point where Ukraine can push against Crimea above.
-Reparations, Russia know they will have to pay, they will though haggle like fishmongerer's at the Kasbah... This is probably the point where the EU get shafted with the difference between what is impounded in the west of the Russian funds and the rest of the cost. After all, it will be at least a decade before Russia can pay anything, if ever.
To speed things along it has been lofted an idea.
Instead of getting Crimea, Russia will get to lease the Naval port of Sevastopol for 99 years, but it will be Ukrainian.
Obviously Zelenskyy grumped here... but was told to think about it, and think hard.
Initial reaction from Lavrov seems to be: We need to think about how to sell that as a victory somehow...
Obviously everything will be blamed upon Putin, but by then he will be even deader...
It may end up a bit different, but this will turn out to be conceptually correct in some form.
And everyone will be somewhat happy, somewhat miffed, and problem solved.
The Future
Across The Collective West weapons production is spooling up like it was 1912... it will not stop in any way.
We learned that we need huge stockpiles, and that they will need to be stockpiled closer to the border.
We learned that we need standing armies close to the border.
Infrastructure will be built towards the border.
Positions will be taken.
The West learned that there are parts of the world that is ready to use arms against us.
The West learned that we are truly hated by many.
The lesson learned is that we need to be proactive.
The lesson learned is that we will have to solve our remaining border problem.
Time to weaken the enemy's economy.
Time to sunder the enemy's politics.
Time to go to war.
The date is soon 1914, the archduke will be shot once more.
China.
The opening blow was the EU CO2 tax on Imported goods... it is permanently blowing chunks out of the Chinese economy. And, at the same time China can't argue it, because environment... It is genius. China can reciprocate with exactly the same taxes and customs fees, but to what point and effect? None.
It will probably be a very different war. It will be a slow and thoughtful dismantling of China.
There might be hotter periods, but no all out war, at least I hope so.
Anyway, I am now at the customary point of rambling.
It has been a tiring week to say the least.
It is time for my sofa, an exorbitantly expensive singlemalt, and read Mark Helprin's Swan Lake.
I look forward to falling asleep mid first page after a sip or two.
In the undying words of Murtaugh, I'm to old for this ****.
That reminds me, I hate Carl By1dt. The ****** is 73, sleeps 4 hours and work 20 hours, 7 days a week, and still somehow looks perky all the time. I guess that is why he is running the world and not me.
"B*ldt was the arbiter between Lavrov and Kuleba at G20.
Last edited:
festa5
Well-known member
Ok, there's a long one here, covering quite a bit of the ground we've been discussing.
As usual, some speculation and opinion but based on good intelligence.
" The Quiet
...before the storm.
On missiles
For those who enjoy keeping count, Russia now has enough missiles for two more barrages.
I was a bit surprised on this one, I assumed Russia would like to keep some around for a rainy day.
Do not be surprised if they go for broke one of these days and go for broke.
Russians
The forces of Kherson has been moved to Melitopol, Crimea landbridges, Vuhledar and Bakhmut (anyone surprised?).
At Bakhmut the Russians are pushing hard again with the newly arrived troops that are battlehardened and better equiped and trained. So far Ukraine is pushing them back, but it is quite a bit of a harder slog now. For now this is a tossup, but with a slight advantage to Ukraine.
Surovikin seems to have spotted the same thing that I have written about in previous musings. He has concentrated the best troops available here to try to storm 3 key points held by Ukraine. His problem is that he is storming upward to higher ground and against superiour artillery.
It is incredibly bloody, but the Russians are gaining slowly here. Ukraine is though moving in reinforcements and more heavy gear that has become available after Kherson I fell. Here for now there is a slight advantage to Russia, but that will end soon.
But, since Russia has caught on this is most likely not where Ukraine will make their next push.
Surovikin, every Pundit on the planet, the Goat, and everyone else is pointing to Melitopol being a marvelous spot to attack towards.
It is not. Initially the Ukrainins would be flanked to the East and frontlined to the south and with a huge honking lake leaving very little room to manouver. To do it safelly Ukraine would have to punch out more than 50 kilometers of the Russian line as a beginning of the offensive.
Later on the entire offensive would be flanked in East, South and West... Basically they would build themselves a pocket to be fired on from all sides.
But, with Surovikin following the script a lot of troops are locked down in the defence, and Ukraine have a lot of forces ready to go here.
Over at the landbridges to Crimea mystery missiles and mystery drones have started to disrupt the Russians as they are digging in and pouring concrete. So far not a lot, and the Russians are calling it a vacation spot. That will change.
Ukraine
In Luhansk the Ukrainians are slowly slogging forward against the Russians on the Svatove/Kreminna line. Surovikin has put in some good units among the Mobiks, but it does not change a lot for the Ukrainians. At the going rate they will have liberated all of Luhansk around March.
Kherson II
At an undisclosed place in Southeastern Kherson our intrepid Ltn. Colonel is eating borstj and shelling any concentration of Mobiks that she can find, and the few depots that are still left.
At a slow and steady pace more and more heavy equipment is being brought across the bridges and by barges, the pace is slowly picking up as the repairs progress on the 3 bridges.
Ukraine now control the Kinburn spit down to Hero'iske and M777 artillery are now in place. The Russian lines are bing hit hard all the time from the other side of the Dnipro Bug and from the Spit itself. Most uncomfortable for the Mobiks there. There are no signs of the Russians trying to reinforce and push, they know that it is hopeless due to Ukrainian artillery.
There is also some lighter vehicles being delivered and a push further is expected in the coming weeks.
At the 3 beach heads across Dnipro Ukraine are forming Brigade strength mechanised and tank formations.
To me it looks like 3 + 3 Brigades plus air defence, logistics, artilllery battalions, the works really...
In military vernacular we are talking about 3 heavy combined arms divisions plus 1 support division, ie. an entire army corps that is leaning to the heavy side of things.
Getting something of that blooming size and strength in place will take about two weeks with all the supplies needed. Might even take a week or so longer due to logistics issues.
Just to put things in perspective, we are talking about more tanks than Russia has in total, supported by the latest in armoured vehicles that the west has chucked into Ukraine.
Obviously Surovikin is seeing all of this, and he is doing what he can to send reinforcements to bolster the hapless Mobiks that are milling about in the desert. Ukraine equally obviously knows what Surovikin is doing, so they are sending out units to cut the roads inwards.
In about 20 days Ukraine will unleash things, and it will inevitably end up like for the Iraqi's as Stormin' Norman came thundering across the desert. It will be about 100 hours of tank manouvre warfare and that will be it for Kherson II.
I have previously written that Ukraine will pull a magical rabit out of the **** and do something totally unexpected as per usual, as they arrive at the border to Crimea. I even though they would do an amphibious assault as a flanking manouvre.
I no longer think that will be the case (bound to change again I guess...), my currently opinion is that the magical rabbit will be Ukraine punching a hole head on at the landbridge, question is more if they will bomb the shnabel out of the place first, or just punch directly before the Russians expect them to do so.
The reason I think so is that Ukraine is starting to be a bit nervous that decissions might soon be taken away from them.
But, if they can continue to punch hard a couple of times more the decissions made will be tasting far better for Ukraine.
The feck off factor of having soldiers inside Crimea, or having Crimea totally should not be underestimated.
It is not like Ukraine does not have time. But, they also want things over with. The unofficial date is during the summer of 2023, but there is a proviso. If all hell breaks loose with China the war in Ukraine is over on the same day... and that is setting a flame under the **** of them.
In the land of Muskovites
The narrative in Moscow is changing, with more and louder voices screaming for negotiations, and the word surrender is even uttered directly on TV.
The population is being readied for what is coming.
The Leadership want out from the war they inherited.
A plan seems to have be devised. As far as we understand "Putin" will declare a general withdrawal, he will then "die" from the workload that the war put on him, and the Leadership will officially take over until an "election" can be held, the Leadership will then officially take over, under the proviso that it will in the future be a group of leaders leading under a "Secretary", a "Politburo" of sorts.
They are even talking directly with three candidates to take place either as Secretary or member of the Politburo. These 3 are "respected" oppositionleaders that will bring cudos from the West, and cudos they need.
In Petyak sits the only one not talked to, and he will die prior to this happening, or just remain there.
Do note that this is the current Leadership's idea, but they seem to think that they can sell this to the three candidate members, the population, and to the west...
Novopolitburo: Kara-Murza, Kasparov, Kasyanov, Lavrov, Mishustin, Nabiullina, Naryshkin, Peskov & Soyghurt.
It is a very Russian thing.
Basically they will go: Hey, you do not like all of us, but we are reforming with good guys. And we will secure the nukes, reform the economy, and not take a dump on the carpet like the former guy. And as a piece of cake they will make either Kara-Murza, Kasparov or Kasyanov Secretary of The Russian Federated Republics (or some such...), they will also state some pure huoy about increased governemental role for the republics.
This is a bit speculative, but the talk in Muskovskyland is going along these lines, and it was thrown out as a talking point by Naryshkin in Ankara, that a mixture of old and new more western leaning leaders would take over soon, and that the nukes would be secure.
Burns understood it like this, if we are allowed to sort out our internal **** we will go from Ukraine, and we will behave like good little Russians again.
Negotiations
Russia
A list of people to be excluded from any war crimes tribunals have been handed over. Peskov, Lavrov, Soyghurt, Mishustin, Naryshkin and Nabiullina. The rest are thrown under the bus.
And a list of about 100 names whose sanctions will be lifted in a first stage.
Crimea will be signed over as a Russian Republic for perpetuity.
Russia will immediately walk home.
Ukraine
Surrender at following terms:
-Russia home immediately and ceasefire
-Russia keeps nothing
-Full reparations
-War criminals will be handed over to Hague or Kyiv (but seems open to immunize new leadership if it speeds things up, Soyghurt is a problem though)
-Lifting of sanctions on non-war criminals not an issue
This may sound as a big difference in standpoint.
-Crimea, only a point if it is in Russian hands... See why Ukraine is pushing so hard for it?
-War criminals to court, since Russia is asking for immunities for some they are most likely open to chuck everyone else under the bus, so less of a problem. It is here a point where Ukraine can push against Crimea above.
-Reparations, Russia know they will have to pay, they will though haggle like fishmongerer's at the Kasbah... This is probably the point where the EU get shafted with the difference between what is impounded in the west of the Russian funds and the rest of the cost. After all, it will be at least a decade before Russia can pay anything, if ever.
To speed things along it has been lofted an idea.
Instead of getting Crimea, Russia will get to lease the Naval port of Sevastopol for 99 years, but it will be Ukrainian.
Obviously Zelenskyy grumped here... but was told to think about it, and think hard.
Initial reaction from Lavrov seems to be: We need to think about how to sell that as a victory somehow...
Obviously everything will be blamed upon Putin, but by then he will be even deader...
It may end up a bit different, but this will turn out to be conceptually correct in some form.
And everyone will be somewhat happy, somewhat miffed, and problem solved.
The Future
Across The Collective West weapons production is spooling up like it was 1912... it will not stop in any way.
We learned that we need huge stockpiles, and that they will need to be stockpiled closer to the border.
We learned that we need standing armies close to the border.
Infrastructure will be built towards the border.
Positions will be taken.
The West learned that there are parts of the world that is ready to use arms against us.
The West learned that we are truly hated by many.
The lesson learned is that we need to be proactive.
The lesson learned is that we will have to solve our remaining border problem.
Time to weaken the enemy's economy.
Time to sunder the enemy's politics.
Time to go to war.
The date is soon 1914, the archduke will be shot once more.
China.
The opening blow was the EU CO2 tax on Imported goods... it is permanently blowing chunks out of the Chinese economy. And, at the same time China can't argue it, because environment... It is genius. China can reciprocate with exactly the same taxes and customs fees, but to what point and effect? None.
It will probably be a very different war. It will be a slow and thoughtful dismantling of China.
There might be hotter periods, but no all out war, at least I hope so.
Anyway, I am now at the customary point of rambling.
It has been a tiring week to say the least.
It is time for my sofa, an exorbitantly expensive singlemalt, and read Mark Helprin's Swan Lake.
I look forward to falling asleep mid first page after a sip or two.
In the undying words of Murtaugh, I'm to old for this ****.
That reminds me, I hate Carl Byldt. The ****** is 73, sleeps 4 hours and work 20 hours, 7 days a week, and still somehow looks perky all the time. I guess that is why he is running the world and not me.
B*ldt was the arbiter between Lavrov and Kuleba at G20.
Think you've said your man is Swedish? But for some reason I always have a Russian accent in my head when I read these (maybe there are some similarities between the two).
Think he might have missed his calling as a writer anyway!
Haha, yes, he's Swedish. Mad. Insanely bright. And has a brilliant command of the English language (odd spelling aside). Whenever I utter a new dialect word or slang phrase, he's on it straight away.
His current fave is Spondies
. Ironically, one of my jobs is to proof read his english and correct spelling/grammar (whih, obviously, I don't do for these missives).
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johnsmithsno2
Well-known member
Cross reference Ulster plantation.
festa5
Well-known member
Haha, yes, he's Swedish. Mad. Insanely bright. And has a brilliant command of the English language (odd spelling aside). Whenever I utter a new dialect word or slang phrase, he's on it straight away.
His current fave is Spondies
You can tell he loves the slang/dialect, has a great turn of phrase. "Slogging" forward etc
Very impressive for a non native speaker.
jonny_greenings_sock
Well-known member
My first contribution to possibly the best thread that’s ever been on here - thanks borolad for the updates, incredibly interesting and brilliantly written.
It’s hard, isn’t it. Because what made Germany “nice” was total demilitarisation for what was it, 40 years? It’s not possible to do that with Russia, because the west will never invade and occupy and the great patriotic bear will always exist. Like someone said earlier in this thread, you can’t control your neighbours, and if you get bad ones you just have to work with it.
A small addendum to the last post.
I asked him yesterday about the missiles and missile attacks. I knew they had limited numbers left and thought they would keep some back in case they were needed elsewhere (China way for instance). He said that they now have only 200 left. He is a little surprised they are wasting them and that the missile barrages are not being ordered by the military. In fact they will be ******* Surovikin off. Most likely culprit is Shoigu (Soyghurt ....Hence Shoigu's amnesty being a problem for the Ukrainians/West) who, despite being defence minister, is not a military man ... his background is actually in Aluminium.
Gen. Gerasimov is back in a mental asylum in a straight jacket (he lost his marbles when his only child, his son, was killed in he war).
I asked him yesterday about the missiles and missile attacks. I knew they had limited numbers left and thought they would keep some back in case they were needed elsewhere (China way for instance). He said that they now have only 200 left. He is a little surprised they are wasting them and that the missile barrages are not being ordered by the military. In fact they will be ******* Surovikin off. Most likely culprit is Shoigu (Soyghurt ....Hence Shoigu's amnesty being a problem for the Ukrainians/West) who, despite being defence minister, is not a military man ... his background is actually in Aluminium.
Gen. Gerasimov is back in a mental asylum in a straight jacket (he lost his marbles when his only child, his son, was killed in he war).
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Quicksilvera
Well-known member
It will be like sending lambs to the slaughter and it makes no sense at all to do it, they just need to stop the needless death of their people and go home.