If form over the last 10 games continues

Left_peg said:
It changes after each game but does give an indication of who has momentum etc. The interesting thing is that the points needed to get 6th place has been pretty constant at almost exactly 75 despite the teams swapping and changing
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the tables on this thread have shown..

78.2
80
76.7
76.8
75 (joint with 7th)
75 (joint with 7th)

my fag packet calculations that I've done this season have us needing to finish on 76 points in most cases having to win the last two.

daft predictor I've done today had had us needing 77 points to GUARANTEE a play off place.

the tables on this thread show a steady decline for points required to finish 6th.. looking at the movement early on I still think that a 76 point finish would see us over the line. BIG GULP!!
 
newyddion said:
Spence being out will be a positive at least.. right? he's not allowed to play against us is he?!?!?
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He can't play against us but they've got some good players. Keinan Davis is the type of player that I can just see breaking our hearts
 
TeamCurrent PointsPPG last 10games remainingprojected end points
Fulham772995
Bournemouth661.71184.7
Forest582.11079
Luton602.1978.9
Huddersfield631.9878.2
MIllwall572.1975.9
Boro591.7974.3
Sheff United581.6972.4
QPR591.1968.9
Blackburn610.9868.2
Coventry541.4966.6
Blackpool 521.6966.4
Preston511.4862.2
Swansea 471.51062
West Brom530.8960.2
Cardiff461.7859.6
Stoke460.8953.2
Bristol City431851
Birmingham410.9848.2
Hull410.9848.2
Barnsley281.4940.6
Reading300.8937.2
Derby240.9831.2
Peterbrough230.3925.7
 
Updated after tonight's games. Sheff United drop out of 6th place and Millwall pip Boro to 6th place.

QPR, Blackburn and Coventry need to turn their form around to stay in touch.

Forest now projected to finish 3rd. They, along with Millwall and Luton are the form teams currently.
 
I like what you are doing left_peg. It does suffer from a small dataset, by nature. if you average 2 points perr game over your last 10 games, but your 1st game in that set was a loss and you win your next game, you drop a duck egg out of the dataset and replace it with a 3. This has a huge effect on the PPG.

In the 2 ppg example above, you would go to 2.3 ppg with a win in your next game. Thats a 15% change with one result.

Its worth doing it LP, and I like reading it, just pointing out why it is so volatile. Your ppg can change with one game in a range from -0.3 to + 0.3 thats a 30% spread in a single result.

Good work though, must take you ages.
 
Yeah it is limited but I do enjoy a good spreadsheet. I think the big takeaway from it is that so many of the teams just keep sticking around the playoff mix despite the stats. Forest and Millwall have been in great form but are both below us, QPR and Blackburn have been relatively poor but are still holding on above us.

The implications for Boro, I think, is that in the next 9 games we need a PPG of around 1.8 or 1.9 to give us 76/77 points, so 17 or 18 points.
 
Left_peg said:
Yeah it is limited but I do enjoy a good spreadsheet. I think the big takeaway from it is that so many of the teams just keep sticking around the playoff mix despite the stats. Forest and Millwall have been in great form but are both below us, QPR and Blackburn have been relatively poor but are still holding on above us.

The implications for Boro, I think, is that in the next 9 games we need a PPG of around 1.8 or 1.9 to give us 76/77 points, so 17 or 18 points.
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It is a mad league whilst out form has dipped a bit we are where we were a month ago. It's going to be nip and tuck to the line.
 
International break has come at just the right time for us. We'll get our injured players back and the whole squad can rest and regroup ahead of a mammoth April.

Just have to hope that McNair remains injury free while away.
 
Good work Left Peg.

I find this an interesting read, and if nothing else you can see the form teams in an instant.

I don't think it'll quite pan out as you've predicted. Head to heads will be interesting and will make a huge difference. I think 9 of Bournemouth's remaining 11 games are against play off hopefuls for example.

Also, after Peterborough we have 5 out of 8 at home which has got to be in our favour. If we get 3 points at Peterborough I will show my bottom in Binns window if we do not make the top six.

Good stuff all the same though, cheers.
 
TeamCurrent PointsPPG last 10games remainingprojected end points
Fulham772995
Bournemouth6921089
Luton632.1879.8
Forest582.11079
Huddersfield631.8775.6
Boro591.7974.3
Sheff United611.6873.8
MIllwall572873
QPR591867
Blackburn610.8766.6
Blackpool 521.6966.4
Coventry551.4866.2
Swansea 481.6962.4
Preston511.4862.2
West Brom540.9861.2
Cardiff461.7859.6
Stoke491857
Bristol City441751
Birmingham420.9748.3
Hull410.9747.3
Reading331.1841.8
Barnsley281.4839.2
Derby251732
Peterbrough260.6931.4
 
Left_peg said:
Boro back into the projected top 6 with Millwall and Sheff United dropping out. Required points for a top 6 place drops below 75 for the first time which shows the impact that the "6 pointers" have had.
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How have Sheffield United dropped out when they won and we haven't played?
 
Left_peg said:
Boro back into the projected top 6 with Millwall and Sheff United dropping out. Required points for a top 6 place drops below 75 for the first time which shows the impact that the "6 pointers" have had.
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Do the predictions assume a uniform trajectory based on the last ten?
How do games-in-hand and results like Posh v QPR effect predictions?
 
This site shows the run-in for everyone with interactive popups explaining each data column. Sheffield and QPR have to play each other twice and Fulham and Bournemouth could scupper a few teams hopes too.
As long as we pick up points and don't worry about others then I'm confident we'll make the playoffs.

The run in
 
r00fie1 said:
Do the predictions assume a uniform trajectory based on the last ten?
How do games-in-hand and results like Posh v QPR effect predictions?
Click to expand...
It’s PPG over the last 10 x games left
Very simplistic and open to big fluctuations but does paint a certain picture
 
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