Im worried 😟

Agreed, but, our results will not continue like this. We've been punished for every marginal error and failed to punish teams when we have had the opportunity. This can be backed up the xG ratings:

Boro 1.73 - 1.52 West Brom : we had marginally better of the game but a draw was fair against a top side)

QPR 1.51 - 2.07 Boro : despite a poor first half, assisted by a ref error, we battered them second and should have at least equalised. Ultimately a defensive error and not bringing Willock down with some dark arts cost us)

Boro 1.81 - 0.58 Sheff Utd : We strangled their forward lines of opportunity, they had a world class strike and a rediculous own goal, we created enough to win but that Giles OG was a killer

Stoke 1.56 - 2.77 Boro : Again, the ref game them a goal lead, then a poor touch from McNair gave them an opportunity for the second. We dominated them apart from those 2 moments.

Reading 0.37 - 1.31 Boro : We strangled them of opportunities again, they never built any threat against us except for about a 3 min spell of corners and a couple of crosses, other than that nothing. One bad headed clearance and a perfect finish did for us defensively, but, it would have been ruled out with VAR because Hendricks was clearly in our keepers lie of sight and offside.

So in summary 3 of the games the opposition have scored double their xG, that is really unlucky. We've only beaten our xG once, Sheff Utd. Over the course of a season that should even out. Getting one defender and one finisher will change the results a lot too.

On top of that we've been done by the ref at QPR, stoke and reading robbing us of 5 points. Again that isn't likely to continue.

Yes, we should have done better yesterday, yes our results aren't good enough, yes some players need a long hard look in the mirror, but, we also shouldn't over react and be a bunch of bedwetters at the first sign of a downturn in results.
I would be very suspicious of xg as a useful stat. the way you are using it, you are quite right. It gives a reasonable overview of predominance of any game you didn't watch. However, it's awful for predicting future performance. They're, probably it's a reason why, but I don't know the answer to that one.

I tried to use it in my deepnet algorithm and it, pretty much ignored it.
 
Can’t twist to suit the league table? Everyone is seeing the same one?
Correct, the league table doesnt lie but I dont feel performances overall are as bad as people are stating, we will get it right and wilder will get it right, lets judge at the end of the season.

As I have mentioned before like Reading and other we have started like a house on fire most notably under mowbray who was dealing with the bargain basement and where in the top 3 at christmas only to fall away, we have not got the results we wanted but we will definately get a win, grow in confidence and have a really good go at the season!
 
If we bring in a striker capable of 20 goals a season, a ball playing LCB that can cover Giles offensive quality and a M/F who can be both a destroyer and creator at the same time (at our level) then we will fly up the league. However it will need the monies brought in from Tav and that idiot who signed for Spurs that Conte doesn’t want, to be heavily spent.
despite how bad the results have been and how por our mistakes have been and misses have been, we're still very close to being a really good side. Just need tweaking and a bit of luck and confidence to get going
 
I would be very suspicious of xg as a useful stat. the way you are using it, you are quite right. It gives a reasonable overview of predominance of any game you didn't watch. However, it's awful for predicting future performance. They're, probably it's a reason why, but I don't know the answer to that one.

I tried to use it in my deepnet algorithm and it, pretty much ignored it.
To be honest I've watched every game and it quantified what my eyes and brain told me, we're creating decent chances and not taking them, and getting punished by poor reffing and every half chance going in.
 
despite how bad the results have been and how por our mistakes have been and misses have been, we're still very close to being a really good side. Just need tweaking and a bit of luck and confidence to get going
We are close, but no cigar without 3 high class signings ……. for our level of course, reasonable money has to be spent to achieve it for me.
 
Looking at the table, only a couple of teams are unbeaten. Top six have only won 2 or 3 out of their 5 games. Usually by now, there are a couple of teams that are 5 wins from 5.

This is going to be an incredibly hard league this year, each team capable of beating any other team.

So far, out possession % has been incredible but the final ball lacking. Oh, and a quality striker to finish. Pretty much the same as the last, say 10 years.

We are only 7 points off the top. Give it till Christmas and then start to worry. Very early days, new squad additions etc.
I think the final ball has been there, our xG is one of the best in the league and only 4 teams have scored more. We've missed some really easy chances though.

But the killer is the goals we've let in. 3 goals that should have been ruled out - QPR, Stoke and Reading, and one OG under no pressure form Giles.
 
We are close, but no cigar without 3 high class signings ……. for our level of course, reasonable money has to be spent to achieve it for me.
agreed he needs to release the purse strings, and the signs are he is trying to - Larsen and Greaves were combined offers of about 15m - then yes 2 or 3 quality signings could easily see a total about turn in results. We're actually pretty good box-to-box
 
To be honest I've watched every game and it quantified what my eyes and brain told me, we're creating decent chances and not taking them, and getting punished by poor reffing and every half chance going in.
Which I think mart is the issue with xg. It's essentially subjective. Stats should be quantifiable.
 
I'm trying to reassure myself by remembering that we made a pretty poor start to the play-off season under Karanka - 6 points from the first 5 games.

I'm hopeful once the window shuts we will end up with a settled team and see a change in results and performances.
 
E
What is XG?
expected goals. A statistical analysis of the likelihood of scoring from any given chance.

Examples:

Sander Berge's goal for Sheff United against us from 20 yards while running away from goal had a xG of 0.06, therefore a 1 in 20 chance of scoring it.

Akpoms first goal was a 0.62, he should score it 2 times out of 3
 
Incidentally, Forest last season started: LLLLDLL and were rock bottom with one point. We were the L after the D and Hughton was sacked the day after. They lost their next obviously, Cooper came in and they won five of the next six. And they were playing really well when the playoffs came round.
 
according to xG our best goal from a finishing perspective was Watmore at stoke with just a 0.21 chance

worst miss: Riley McGree against Stoke 0.53 chance. Although Watmore has missed 2 chances that were 0.5 rated (West Brom and Sheff U)
 
I've seen enough from Wilder to want to give him time. I've had enough of negative, 10 men behind the ball *****. He's forward thinking, he's progressive and we're a darn sight better to watch than we have been for a long time. Probably since the Karanka play-off season.

This is how I want us to play. Is this season too soon for promotion? It might be, we needed a lot of players and Wilder has spoken previously about needing 4 or so windows to sort it out. He's had 2.

Barring a disaster of a run of Mowbray proportions (which I can't see as Mowbray really was shopping in the bargain basement) I'm happy for him to stay even if we don't make the playoffs this year. I think we will but football is a funny game and nothing is guaranteed.

If we're talking about an "identity" or a blueprint etc and a long term plan, this is it for me. Let's not throw the baby out with bathwater again. If it doesn't click immediately let's have a bit of faith or patience. If Wilder packs it in, that's a different matter obviously. But I'd hope if that happens we find his replacement in a similar mold. The last thing we want is to down the Pulis/Warnock route again. And Dyche is still without a job.......😬
 
Incidentally, Forest last season started: LLLLDLL and were rock bottom with one point. We were the L after the D and Hughton was sacked the day after. They lost their next obviously, Cooper came in and they won five of the next six. And they were playing really well when the playoffs came round.
It's not where you start, it's where you finish.....👍
 
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