National Lockdown from Wednesday

[Pog]

Dno about colleges but our kids uni is entirely online. Hasn’t seen anyone in person in weeks. Hardly seems “the problem”

 

[ThirdLeg]

So that includes every kid back in school in the land presumably?
All I’m saying is why do you need to close unis when they haven’t been in classrooms in weeks anyway

 

[Pog]

So that includes every kid back in school in the land presumably?
All I’m saying is why do you need to close unis when they haven’t been in classrooms in weeks anyway

If they’re not in classrooms they don’t need to be in shared halls of residence and shared houses where they can spread it amongst themselves, not to mention others they’ll spread it at social gatherings.

Send them home.

 

[T_A_D]

It would be a sensible thing to do from a healthcare capacity point of view, though economically would be a disaster. We still have 4 months of winter to go and ITU beds are already getting congested with people suffering from Covid. My fear is that the cat is already out of the bag and we are in for a really bad winter, unless a vaccine proves effective soon.

ICU (covid) status today...........


Lets look at it geographically......

 

[Mr.DerbyCountyFC]

Hope they keep live sport going. Gutted if the footy stops

I think it will be ok for sports.

 

[bear66]

If they’re not in classrooms they don’t need to be in shared halls of residence and shared houses where they can spread it amongst themselves, not to mention others they’ll spread it to at social gatherings.

Send them home.

The problem with that is it will spread to every part of the UK and to their family and home friends.

 

[ThirdLeg]

Too late for that they’ve been with those people for a month already. If there’s a lockdown in place then you can’t go out and spread it around can you?
Really feel they’ve been hung out to dry.
It was the Governments choice to leave pubs open..

 

[T_A_D]

It does seem to be picking up pace. They love releasing it to the press first everytime they announce something

No parliamentary scrutiny, no surprise.

 

[ThirdLeg]

Don’t remain with your 2 twenty something, practically immune, house mates you’ve been living with since September. Traverse the country. Go back to your homes with your 50plus out of shape parents! Haven’t seen your granny since you left she doesn’t half miss you!

 

[Aet290204]

This is no way to live life. It’s just an existence.
This **** show of a government haven’t a clue.

I want to go to bed tonight and never wake up again. I’ve had enough. Don’t try to tell me it won’t last forever. There’s no way out of this.

 

[uncle_rico]

It does seem to be picking up pace. They love releasing it to the press first everytime they announce something

Guess it’s so people can digest it and it’s not as much of a shock. Utter bollöcks though. If they were really that worried then they’d have done it including half term.

I’ll be livid if I can’t play golf. Not bothered about going in the clubhouse before or after, but its one of the few sports you can do whilst social distancing.

 

[T_A_D]

ICU data nationally nothing like in March/April and it won't be whatever is done. I wonder why the rate of increase is slower........ hmmmmmm.

Busier in the north but not in the South, makes no sense whatsoever to place restrictions on the south. Exactly as has been predicted...... further restrictions, Johnson may let you all out for the day at Christmas and then restrictions again next year...... for how long? Months? The following year? (they'll still be claiming this years coronavirus is still around as it is in the 'modeling').

 

[ThirdLeg]

Going to be really tough on people over winter if they can’t play sport and get to gyms. Not like last time when we turned into a country of runners and ramblers, spurred on by the springtime sun

 

[T_A_D]

I see Jeremy Farrar is spouting off again. A sorry state of affairs as many Western nations carry out the exact same 'strategy'

 

[T_A_D]

Going to be really tough on people over winter if they can’t play sport and get to gyms. Not like last time when we turned into a country of runners and ramblers, spurred on by the springtime sun

Yup, sport will stop I imagine. More restrictions (in places with already falling infection rates!), sale of non-essential items will get banned etc.

 

[bear66]

ICU data nationally nothing like in March/April and it won't be whatever is done. I wonder why the rate of increase is slower........ hmmmmmm.

Busier in the north but not in the South, makes no sense whatsoever to place restrictions on the south. Exactly as has been predicted...... further restrictions, Johnson may let you all out for the day at Christmas and then restrictions again next year...... for how long? Months? The following year? (they'll still be claiming this years coronavirus is still around as it is in the 'modeling').

Or . . . more important for the south. Too late for the North.

 

[T_A_D]

Or . . . more important for the south. Too late for the North.

Well, that would be the case if you think the South has not built up any level of immunity.

What do you think of SAGE's proclamation of 90% still susceptible (stated a few weeks ago)? Do you actually believe this? Do you think antibodies are the only indicator of immunity?

I think you stated before that this virus is not seasonal? It is, it has followed the usual pattern for european countries, south american countries, and the USA states as described for coronavirus' by Edgar Hope Simpson.

 

[ForssAwakens]

Well, that would be the case if you think the South has not built up any level of immunity.

What do you think of SAGE's proclamation of 90% still susceptible (stated a few weeks ago)? Do you actually believe this? Do you think antibodies are the only indicator of immunity?

I think you stated before that this virus is not seasonal? It is, it has followed the usual pattern for european countries, south american countries, and the USA states as described for coronavirus' by Edgar Hope Simpson.

The south has started to spike so I guess we will see if there is a level a immunity. If there was though I don’t think figures such as r2.6 would be bounded about for London. I remain sceptical

 

[bear66]

Nothing to suggest there is any immunity in the south. As the community transmission is increasing, it increases faster. That's why the South can benefit now (as the North would have 5 weeks ago). Even Tegnell has given up on any degree of inherent immunity in Sweden.

Depending upon contagiousness, herd immunity could be 30% to 90%. We have a population where comorbidity risks may affect tens of millions (cancer, diabetes, ethnicity, obesity, mental health problems), most of whom are still susceptible.

It hasn't followed any seasonal pattern. Locking down damped it down; encouraging social contact resurrected it. Nothing to do with seasons.

 

[T_A_D]

Spike? Really? R numbers just get bandied about without much meaning or context. "That's numberwang!"

Bear, it has very much followed the seasonal pattern. I have shown the data for countries in various continents. Edgar Hope Simpson spent years describing this. They are exactly as expected regardless of restrictions/interventions (I have shown you Peru, Brazil, Mexico). USA has the expected double hump resulting from the northern states and then the southern states.