National Lockdown from Wednesday

[T_A_D]

Genuine question..... do you understand how the immune system works?

 

[bear66]

Genuine question..... do you understand how the immune system works?

Yes. At least Tegnell has begun to learn as well.

 

[bear66]

Spike? Really? R numbers just get bandied about without much meaning or context. "That's numberwang!"

Bear, it has very much followed the seasonal pattern. I have shown the data for countries in various continents. Edgar Hope Simpson spent years describing this. They are exactly as expected regardless of restrictions/interventions (I have shown you Peru, Brazil, Mexico). USA has the expected double hump resulting from the northern states and then the southern states.

Nothing to do with seasons, just exposure.

 

[T_A_D]

I haven't gone through the ONS data yet but 100,000 a day getting it? I'm being a bit flippant........ but....... I wonder how many were getting it in March. It'll have gone through the population about 3 times by SAGE's modeling.

 

[Randy]

Hope they keep live sport going. Gutted if the footy stops

Don't worry, the rich will continue to have freedom. Just the plebs won't.

 

[T_A_D]

Are you aware of Edgar Hope Simpson's work?

 

[bear66]

I haven't gone through the ONS data yet but 100,000 a day getting it? I'm being a bit flippant........ but....... I wonder how many were getting it in March. It'll have gone through the population about 3 times by SAGE's modeling.

Your estimate of peak cases prior to lockdown was sobering. 98% of deaths occurred after the peak.

 

[T_A_D]

Yes. At least Tegnell has begun to learn as well.

Tegnell has begun to learn?!

Ha ha, what does that mean?

 

[T_A_D]

Your estimate of peak cases prior to lockdown was sobering. 98% of deaths occurred after the peak.

Yes, that's how it works. There is a lag between peak infections and peak deaths

 

[bear66]

Yes, that's how it works. There is a lag between peak infections and peak deaths

I'm not thinking about the peak. The absolute number of deaths. 98% of deaths isn't a lag. Hopefully that doesn't happen from here as we haven't peaked in cases yet.

 

[Pog]

The problem with that is it will spread to every part of the UK and to their family and home friends.

So they either spread it to the rest of their household or thousands of others of others on campus?

 

[bear66]

So they either spread it to the rest of their household or thousands of others of others on campus?

No. They're going to a new circle of people, not the group they've been with for 4-6 weeks.

 

[Matt]

I haven't gone through the ONS data yet but 100,000 a day getting it? I'm being a bit flippant........ but....... I wonder how many were getting it in March. It'll have gone through the population about 3 times by SAGE's modeling.

I've seen estimates of anywhere between 100-200k a day in March

As a side note, at 100k a day it would take close to 2 years to get round the whole country

 

[TeaCider]

Should have done it at the same time as Wales.
This government has been farcical in handling this.

 

[FabioPorkpie]

This should come as a surprise to nobody.
The media have very clearly been doing their job of preparing us for it, with ridiculously over the top scare mongering, disingenuous headlines this past week.
Paving the way for Johnson to say ‘we have no choice...‘

 

[ForssAwakens]

This should come as a surprise to nobody.
The media have very clearly been doing their job of preparing us for it, with ridiculously over the top scare mongering, disingenuous headlines this past week.
Paving the way for Johnson to say ‘we have no choice...‘

‘scaremongering’

 

[bear66]

Should have done it at the same time as Wales.
This government has been farcical in handling this.

There was an opportunity to do something in September that would have been more effective with less social pain, but the scientists were ignored.

 

[FabioPorkpie]

‘scaremongering’

yeah. Thanks

if you can think of a different way to describe ‘ things are 4 times currently worse than SAGES worst case scenario!’

‘ICU wards in Liverpool have reached maximum capacity and are in danger of being overrun’ (2 weeks ago...what happened there?’)

‘96 k cases per day (says a non-peer reviewed and flawed study that is contradictory to ALL the other measures that have been used and considered reliable for the past 8 months)’

And my favourite, ‘covid antibodies wane in time!! Shock!!’. (Errrrrmmm as would be expected, and is completely normal).

 

[borolad259]

Yes. At least Tegnell has begun to learn as well.

You are mis-representing Tegnell.

 

[bear66]

You are mis-representing Tegnell.

He seems to have misrepresented himself.
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