The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner said:
As others have commented, stats likely to be all over the place for the next two weeks, but lets roll with it...
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Yeah, keep the stats up (y)

Just give it a couple of days before the deniers are back with “but cases are down, and you all said they were going to go up over christmas” :rolleyes:.

I wonder when the big surge will actually be? With incubation before symptoms being around 5-6 days, on average, then this is likely around NYE which is bad timing. People start being most infectious around 2-3 days before showing symptoms too, so I’m going to keep public contact to an absolute minimum until the new year.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 34,693 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 32,725
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 3.1% to 35,970 per day, following 1.8% increase yesterday (and 20th increase in the past 21 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 45.3% higher than one week ago (from 45.6% higher yesterday) and 101.4% higher than two weeks ago (from 105.1% higher yesterday and 71.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 210 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 570 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 8.9% to 476 per day, following 2.3% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 9.2% higher than one week ago (from 20.4% higher yesterday) and 10.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 25.7% higher yesterday and 2.1% higher 7 days ago)

Clear Christmas Day effect in the reported deaths. None of those recorded were within the past three days.
 
Comparing Wave 2 with Wave 1 (as of yesterday):

Highest number of positive tests (7-day average) as a proportion of all tests processed (7-day average) since 2nd May (4 days earlier than last week).
Highest 7-day average for hospital admissions since 16th April (5 days earlier than last week).
Highest number of people in hospital since 13th April (9 days earlier than last week).
Highest number of people on ventilation since 10th May (3 days earlier than last week).
Highest 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test since 6th May (5 days earlier than last week).
First instance of four consecutive days with 570 or more new deaths announced since 2nd May (same date as last week's comparison with 480 or more deaths on four consecutive days).
 
Billy Horner said:
Comparing Wave 2 with Wave 1 (as of yesterday):

Highest number of positive tests (7-day average) as a proportion of all tests processed (7-day average) since 2nd May (4 days earlier than last week).
Highest 7-day average for hospital admissions since 16th April (5 days earlier than last week).
Highest number of people in hospital since 13th April (9 days earlier than last week).
Highest number of people on ventilation since 10th May (3 days earlier than last week).
Highest 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test since 6th May (5 days earlier than last week).
First instance of four consecutive days with 570 or more new deaths announced since 2nd May (same date as last week's comparison with 480 or more deaths on four consecutive days).
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I think what those numbers show, amongs other things is that we are seeing reduced deaths because of the holiday period and lack of processing.

We will need to baton down for the rest of winter I fear.
 
On a slightly different subject, how would you folks suggest we support the emotionally vulnerable? I don't have any answers, but, outside of the terrible covid death toll, they are the ones that's sufferring is immeadiate and needs addressing.
 
Laughing said:
On a slightly different subject, how would you folks suggest we support the emotionally vulnerable? I don't have any answers, but, outside of the terrible covid death toll, they are the ones that's sufferring is immeadiate and needs addressing.
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There are a lot of charities out there, particularly local ones, but they are currently limited to phone conversations and any practical help. Lack of normality is something that most people struggle having spent a lifetime establishing routines - there isn't a simple answer how you can replace these.
 
bear66 said:
There are a lot of charities out there, particularly local ones, but they are currently limited to phone conversations and any practical help. Lack of normality is something that most people struggle having spent a lifetime establishing routines - there isn't a simple answer how you can replace these.
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No idea Bear, it will end up being a very real cost of the covid strategy, unfortunately. Those of us emotionally stable struggle to understand the effect this will have on thos feeling lonely and isolated.
 
Laughing said:
No idea Bear, it will end up being a very real cost of the covid strategy, unfortunately. Those of us emotionally stable struggle to understand the effect this will have on thos feeling lonely and isolated.
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We haven’t had a good strategy, that’s been the problem. We’ve been reactive, not preventative, which is the worst way to do it, for any metric. Be that mental health, public health/ death, infection rate or economical problems.

I really, really feel for the lonely/isolated, but I don’t think the lonely/isolated can be used as a counter to the measures that are imposed on them, like an argument against lock downs etc. Simply because the lock down is only there as a late measure to combat NHS being overwhelmed (which would ramp up death rate), and a mass excess of infection/ death/ mental health boom. There’s a mental health concern for the 2m confirmed cases, the 250k admitted to hospital, the 70k dead and the families of all of those. It’s probably over 3 million people that have had an absolute nightmare with this due to the hospital admissions and death alone, which probably massively outnumbers the lonely/ isolated. A lot of the lonely/ isolated are having this caused because they’re afraid of mass infection out in the public.

Obviously im not saying I don’t care about the lonely, as I really do, I’m just saying they’re probably easily outnumbered by the apparent alternative. The obvious answer is to lock down early, and support the lonely/isolated better, it fixes both sides, but the current government don’t seem to want to do either, unfortunately.

By lifting lock downs it may help 1 lonely person, but could lead to the death of two, a healthcare worker being off with COVID/ mental struggles and 10 family members being put in a black hole.

The way to prevent the mental health issue overall is to first limit case transmission, an early 2 week lockdown being better for everyone than a late 4 week one etc.

With any risk assessment, the first option is always to see how the risk can be taken away. Spend a little on stopping the fire happening, rather than spending a fortune on putting out fires and rebuilding.

I would bet my life that the countries with the worst mental health impact are directly proportional to COVID infection rate or deaths per million.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 30,501 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 34,693
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 2.2% to 35,194 per day, following 3.1% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 29.2% higher than one week ago (from 45.3% higher yesterday) and 95.3% higher than two weeks ago (from 101.4% higher yesterday and 80.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 316 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 210 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 0.3% to 474 per day, following 8.9% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 2.8% higher than one week ago (from 9.2% higher yesterday) and 12.9% higher than two weeks ago (from 10.0% higher yesterday and 7.6% higher 7 days ago)

No recorded deaths since 22nd December, so true figure likely to be much higher.

EDIT - no recorded new cases since 22nd December either. On 21st December, 46,536 people tested positive!
 
The post christmas catchup is going to be bad. I know it doesn't change the numbers when they are spread, but there is an easier acceptance and digestion.
 
Apologies, there has actually been some reporting of deaths and new cases in England and Wales since 22nd December. However, even with those, numbers are signficantly lower than recent trends would have suggested.

No reporting from Scotland or Northern Ireland.
 
Billy Horner said:
Apologies, there has actually been some reporting of deaths and new cases in England and Wales since 22nd December. However, even with those, numbers are signficantly lower than recent trends would have suggested.

No reporting from Scotland or Northern Ireland.
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22nd is down as 41,749 on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases that’s after 46k the day before :(
That should put us near the 40k average within a few days, it’s going to be messy when these figures catch up.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 41,385 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 30,501
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 3.3% to 36,340 per day, following 2.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 24.8% higher than one week ago (from 29.2% higher yesterday) and 93.1% higher than two weeks ago (from 95.3% higher yesterday and 88.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 357 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 316 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 4.3% to 495 per day, following 0.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 7.7% higher than one week ago (from 2.8% higher yesterday) and 16.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 12.9% higher yesterday and 7.6% higher 7 days ago)

New records for daily cases and 7-day average for new cases.
 
Great work keeping the figures going over the festive period. I’ve tried to have as Covid free a Christmas as possible, so have ignored all local figures until today, I was horrified to see how many cases are now in my local area!
 
I'll echo Jostler, well done fellas. For extra credit, what is the percentage of positive tests versus the number of tests doing, is that also rising by a similar amount as the positive results?
 
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