The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

[SmallTown]

The vaccination programme 'should' stop the hospitalisations/deaths following the same curve as any increases in cases.
Especially given that it will be mainly kids testing positive with the mass testing at schools happening at present.

That's a good point about kids being tested. Also thanks because I'm expecting a big up tick in cases after yesterday. The way you've explained it means that won't necessarily lead to more hospitalizations and more deaths? I think.

 

[Laughing]

Also the schools are all using lateral flow testing, and whilst you would expect an uptic in positive cases, lateral flow tests give a higher percentage of false positives.

It's really more about how many of those children are actually positive, and go home to infect unvaccinated people who may end up in hospital.

 

[Andy_W]

To be fair the cases still decreased in November when we were locked down, with schools open, so I would assume it would still be the case now, even with the new strains.

There's a lot more going for that now also:
It's getting warmer (not colder), so we can assume people are outside more or it's easier to ventilate and not freeze kids
We now have over 20m people who are either less likely to show symptoms or less likely to pass it on, or both, due to the vaccine.
We also have had a lot more people actually get the virus (3m confirmed), so can assume there's less chance of them getting it again.
We're also testing 2-3x as many people now, so more likely to catch rogue infections, and more likely to catch kids/ cases in schools.
There's a lot less of it to contain now also, we might now have 5k cases and might miss 2k, whereas before it might have been catching 25k and missing 25k.
The restrictions on travel are much better now
I would assume test and trace is at least relatively functional now, and not overwhelmed? Or have they just abandoned that?

I can't see having the kids back making much of a difference at all, not now especially.

 

[Tommy_Dickfingers]

That's a good point about kids being tested. Also thanks because I'm expecting a big up tick in cases after yesterday. The way you've explained it means that won't necessarily lead to more hospitalizations and more deaths? I think.

Hopefully not, that's what the vaccine will stop in a perfect scenario.

We still don't know whether the vaccine stops or at least lessens transmission, but it's main job is to stop ppeople getting really poorly as it's first priority and all the data is showing that is exactly what it is doing.

 

[Alvez_48]

Spring time, vaccines, natural immunity, schools have been operating throughout at around 30% capacity. I don't think you'll see a big uptick.
What we may see is like @Laughing pointed out more false positives due to many more tests.

 

[Andy_W]

We still don't know whether the vaccine stops or at least lessens transmission, but it's main job is to stop ppeople getting really poorly as it's first priority and all the data is showing that is exactly what it is doing.

It has to lessen it to at least some degree, as far as the basics of it seem to be, albeit not that I've read much on this.

If you've had the vaccine, then you've got a higher percentage chance of having antibodies, and then there's a good chance these antibodies are going to stop the virus in its tracks or reduce the viral load, so this lowers the viral load you can give to others/ the local atmosphere.
Then as there are no symptoms (as they're not sick), there's a lot less being coughed out, or less people being sick for longer, and less droplets going on surfaces etc.

On the balance of probability, it's probably right to assume it will help, it's just a case of to what degree it helps. Hard to prove in a time of lockdowns and massively declining cases though. Although it's good that it's hard to prove as we're getting a grip on it anyway.

 

[bear66]

As of 9am on 9 March, 4,228,998 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,766.

231 deaths were reported today

143,259 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 26 February)

22,592,528 have had a first dose vaccination. 215,273 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 1,181,431 have had a second dose. 38,788 second dose vaccinations today.

 

[BoroJake]

1.5 million tests

 

[ForssAwakens]

Also the schools are all using lateral flow testing, and whilst you would expect an uptic in positive cases, lateral flow tests give a higher percentage of false positives.

It's really more about how many of those children are actually positive, and go home to infect unvaccinated people who may end up in hospital.

Aren’t lateral test most likely to give a false negative?

 

[Chris_Boro]

In my son's school he had to take 2 tests, both of which he had to do himself under supervision from a teacher.

Accuracy would be a valid question.

 

[Andy_W]

1.5 million tests

That will be the extra 500k schoolkids then!

Interesting that it's only a similar increase in positives from a Mon to Tue as last week, this would give the impression things are quite similar as last week (a good reduction). Except for today/ yesterday, there was a 50% increase in our highest ever test number, compared to any other day! 1.5m for yesterday v 1m on the 2nd. The number of tests is also more than double the 7 day av.

Based on that amount of tests, I would have expected a massive spike.

Obviously, there's a lack of "false positives" with the lateral flow, seeing as we just carried out 500k of them and barely picked up any additional cases, over what we would have got anyway. It's promising for the lack of cases and the results of the lateral flow tests.

 

[Alvez_48]

Aren’t lateral test most likely to give a false negative?

The lateral flow tests are less sensitive for sure but the PCR tests can be too sensitive (it's very difficult to get cycle data to be honest and could be different lab to lab).

That said I've seen fruit juice poured over two lat flow tests... One negative one positive. At this low level of community infection it's almost pointless looking at cases.

 

[Randy]

The lateral flow tests are less sensitive for sure but the PCR tests can be too sensitive (it's very difficult to get cycle data to be honest and could be different lab to lab).

That said I've seen fruit juice poured over two lat flow tests... One negative one positive. At this low level of community infection it's almost pointless looking at cases.

Did you see Whitty is predicting a surge in the summer?
You know like that surge we had last summer when cases were on the floor and we didn't have a vaccine?

 

[Alvez_48]

Did you see Whitty is predicting a surge in the summer?
You know like that surge we had last summer when cases were on the floor and we didn't have a vaccine?

I honestly don't pay much attention to Whitty, I'm sure he's a lovely bloke but his science is conflicted and not data driven.

 

[SmallTown]

Did you see Whitty is predicting a surge in the summer?
You know like that surge we had last summer when cases were on the floor and we didn't have a vaccine?

To be fair, he didn't say that. He said current modelling suggests there will be a surge in the future.

He said it could be any time. He also said that with the vaccines the surge in cases won't lead to as many deaths but will lead to some.

My hope is that when we find out how the vaccines are working our modelling predicts a lower surge.

I think it's a given that cases will go up from now, schools going back and much more testing. Let's just hope it doesn't lead to more hospitalisation for now.

 

[SmallTown]

I honestly don't pay much attention to Whitty, I'm sure he's a lovely bloke but his science is conflicted and not data driven.

This was entirely data driven he was commenting on current modeling. Current modelling doesn't know how will the vaccines are going to do though so I hope they are worst case and reality is much better

 

[Alvez_48]

This was entirely data driven he was commenting on current modeling. Current modelling doesn't know how will the vaccines are going to do though so I hope they are worst case and reality is much better

His modelling is wrong and has always been wrong. Bad data in bad data out, studies repeatedly show this, the data repeatedly shows this.

Anyway forget about it let's not derail the thread.
You're correct, you are always correct. I am wrong. Sorry.

 

[SmallTown]

His modelling is wrong and has always been wrong. Bad data in bad data out, studies repeatedly show this, the data repeatedly shows this.

Anyway forget about it let's not derail the thread.
You're correct, you are always correct. I am wrong. Sorry.

You want to start and argument. I was merely pointing out that modelling is inherently data driven.

 

[Laughing]

His modelling is wrong and has always been wrong. Bad data in bad data out, studies repeatedly show this, the data repeatedly shows this.

Anyway forget about it let's not derail the thread.
You're correct, you are always correct. I am wrong. Sorry.

That made me smile Alvez. I don't remember you ever telling me I am right though,you got favourites?

 

[Alvez_48]

That made me smile Alvez. I don't remember you ever telling me I am right though,you got favourites?

You're often right.
I just find it's difficult to discuss with ST on these topics (things get circular quickly) and I like him so try to nip it in the bud.