The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

SmallTown said:
To be fair, he didn't say that. He said current modelling suggests there will be a surge in the future.

He said it could be any time. He also said that with the vaccines the surge in cases won't lead to as many deaths but will lead to some.

My hope is that when we find out how the vaccines are working our modelling predicts a lower surge.

I think it's a given that cases will go up from now, schools going back and much more testing. Let's just hope it doesn't lead to more hospitalisation for now.
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Let’s also hope if numbers go up they don’t reverse the easing of lockdown restrictions. Let’s hope they analyse properly the reasons why and don’t just default back to lockdown etc.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 5,766 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 4,712
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.5% to 5,800 per day, following 1.8% decrease yesterday (and 57th decrease in the past 58 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 24.5% lower than one week ago (from 26.2% lower yesterday) and 46.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 47.4% lower yesterday and 37.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 231 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 65 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 7.8% to 190 per day, following 2.6% decrease yesterday (and 44th decrease in the past 45 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 33.2% lower than one week ago (from 34.4% lower yesterday) and 57.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 57.1% lower yesterday and 54.2% lower 7 days ago)
 
So here's some fag packet mathematics, PHE believes the false positive rate of lateral flow tests to be around 0.1%..
Yesterday saw 1,500,000 tests processed, 1,200,000 were lateral flow. So yesterday saw approximately 1,200 false positives from lateral flow devices included in the figure.

Now the false positive rate of PCR is very difficult to judge because it's a lab based test so let's not even consider the 300,000 processed PCR tests.

We do not know the false negative rate of lateral flow but for PCR it's essentially 0.

So essentially yesterday's 'good' news is even better when taken in a fuller context.
 
As of 9am on 10 March, 4,234,924 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,926.

190 deaths were reported today

143,259 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 26 February)

22,809,829 have had a first dose vaccination. 217,301 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 1,254,353 have had a second dose. 72,922 second dose vaccinations today.
 
bear66 said:
As of 9am on 10 March, 4,234,924 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,926.

190 deaths were reported today

143,259 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 26 February)

22,809,829 have had a first dose vaccination. 217,301 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 1,254,353 have had a second dose. 72,922 second dose vaccinations today.
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Still lower than what was reported last Wednesday, despite doing 1.35m tests, which is about 50% higher than the same day last week.

This extra testing will probably pick up more cases that would otherwise have gone undetected, which could further help control although it will not initially appear as "good" on the case numbers.
 
Alvez_48 said:
So here's some fag packet mathematics, PHE believes the false positive rate of lateral flow tests to be around 0.1%..
Yesterday saw 1,500,000 tests processed, 1,200,000 were lateral flow. So yesterday saw approximately 1,200 false positives from lateral flow devices included in the figure.

Now the false positive rate of PCR is very difficult to judge because it's a lab based test so let's not even consider the 300,000 processed PCR tests.

We do not know the false negative rate of lateral flow but for PCR it's essentially 0.

So essentially yesterday's 'good' news is even better when taken in a fuller context.
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Taken from the BMJ on the 26th Jan
"Studies have shown that, while false positives are rare with the commonly used Innova lateral flow test, false negatives are much more common.3 Results from Public Health England showed that the test’s overall sensitivity was 76.8%, meaning that 23.2% were false negatives. Sensitivity dropped to just 57.5% when carried out by self-trained staff at a track and trace centre"

I don t think in the long run the number of cases will matter, as it has been said the R rate will be largely irrelevant due to vaccinations, it will be the number of hospitalisations which will affect policy.
 
exeterboro said:
Taken from the BMJ on the 26th Jan
"Studies have shown that, while false positives are rare with the commonly used Innova lateral flow test, false negatives are much more common.3 Results from Public Health England showed that the test’s overall sensitivity was 76.8%, meaning that 23.2% were false negatives. Sensitivity dropped to just 57.5% when carried out by self-trained staff at a track and trace centre"

I don t think in the long run the number of cases will matter, as it has been said the R rate will be largely irrelevant due to vaccinations, it will be the number of hospitalisations which will affect policy.
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Yes it is correct that you get more false negatives with the lateral flow but it's being used to test non symptomatic people during a time of low community transmission therefore is absolutely suitable.

False negatives are less likely currently because of the above so it's not really a 'we have 1,200 false positives but would have 2,300 (for instance) falls negatives to balance it out' situation if that makes sense.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Yes it is correct that you get more false negatives with the lateral flow but it's being used to test non symptomatic people during a time of low community transmission therefore is absolutely suitable.

False negatives are less likely currently because of the above so it's not really a 'we have 1,200 false positives but would have 2,300 (for instance) falls negatives to balance it out' situation if that makes sense.
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Point taken and understood on the community transmission, that cases will be low so there will be as fewer false negatives, but that will change due to children being children and playing and socialising being more important to them than following rules, good luck to them.
It's changing now, our criteria for bad and good in this situation, maybe over the summer we won't get worked up over the transmission of the virus and we just get on with our lives, it is on the way to becoming just another routine health concern.
 
As of 9am on 11 March, 4,241,677 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 6,753.

181 deaths were reported today

143,259 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 26 February)

23,053,716 have had a first dose vaccination. 243,887 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 1,351,515 have had a second dose. 97,162 second dose vaccinations today.
 
So that's an increase in last week's figure. It's too early to be down to increased spread in schools. Is it down to there having been many more tests now the schools have gone back? It's over 1.5m tests today; what sort of numbers were they doing a week ago?
 
Capybara said:
So that's an increase in last week's figure. It's too early to be down to increased spread in schools. Is it down to there having been many more tests now the schools have gone back? It's over 1.5m tests today; what sort of numbers were they doing a week ago?
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970,000 tests and same number of cases reported as today.

Teesside figures are back to late September numbers.
 
Capybara said:
So that's an increase in last week's figure. It's too early to be down to increased spread in schools. Is it down to there having been many more tests now the schools have gone back? It's over 1.5m tests today; what sort of numbers were they doing a week ago?
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20210311_161222.jpg
 
bear66 said:
970,000 tests and same number of cases reported as today.

Teesside figures are back to late September numbers.
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I've got a little theory on this:
All the kids have been tested, so if there are positives, then their families go and get a test and are now being picked up on PCR.
Monday/ Tue kid shows up on lateral flow, Tue/ Wed parents go get a PCR, then that's a lot of people going for PCR's who will likely have it (as they live with the lateral flow positive).
The result is the people going to get tested will be more virus dense, although the actual density in the general population will have gone down.

So, looking at the numbers
Date/ Cases/ tests / % +'ve
11 March 6753/ 1,554080 = 0.43% positive
4 March 6573/ 863,658 = 0.76% positive

So, whilst the cases are roughly the same as last week, the number of positive cases per test has come down a lot, but a ton of those will be kids who wouldn't even have a reason to get a test (not a suspected virus contact). But in with that there will be a thousands of extra parents of lateral flow positives getting tested, and loads of kids picked up who would have otherwise been missed.

TLDR:
More tests, same cases = good news to me
Testing kids daily is a good way to test young working families by proxy, and should pick up otherwise missed cases.
 
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Andy_W said:
TLDR:
More tests, same cases = good news to me
Testing kids daily is a good way to test young working families by proxy, and should pick up otherwise missed cases.
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This is what i was pleased with seeing a few days back when i linked the graphs with number of tests done compared to the prior week. obviously a massive jump in test numbers (schools) but a relatively flat (but slightly declining) +ve test outcome

makes for great reading. the numbers in 2 weeks time will be very interesting once we have the full picture of the kids going back. and they will be just in time for the kids being off for 2 weeks at Easter :LOL: :LOL:
 
Low_Key said:
This is what i was pleased with seeing a few days back when i linked the graphs with number of tests done compared to the prior week. obviously a massive jump in test numbers (schools) but a relatively flat (but slightly declining) +ve test outcome

makes for great reading. the numbers in 2 weeks time will be very interesting once we have the full picture of the kids going back. and they will be just in time for the kids being off for 2 weeks at Easter :LOL: :LOL:
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It's really good I think.

It's also great as it's mass family testing by proxy too, which would have been difficult to get the public to agree to and arrange. So make it necessary so the adults can get some free time back, classic manoeuvre. :ROFLMAO:

Kids going back will have next to nil effect on transmission with all these lateral flows being carried out, I can see the kids going back and the mass testing helping as a combination, more than having them home and not tested.
 
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