The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

The lateral flow tests get dumped into the daily figures so all bets are off now in terms of watching trends etc..

Big one is hospital is now down to less than 5,000 in hospital with positive test.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 6,753 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 5,926
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.4% to 5,760 per day, following 1.1% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 13.8% lower than one week ago (from 20.1% lower yesterday) and 43.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 45.3% lower yesterday and 44.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 181 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, slightly down from 190 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 5.1% to 163 per day, following 9.4% decrease yesterday (and 46th decrease in the past 47 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 35.9% lower than one week ago (from 35.4% lower yesterday) and 57.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 57.4% lower yesterday and 53.8% lower 7 days ago)
 
Alvez_48 said:
Hey @Billy Horner could you add positive % rate and tests processed to your stats because as they are now they are worthless at the moment and actually misleading
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I guess that'll be a lot of work but yes as I understand it the number of positives tests per tests carried out has dropped quite a bit. Given the huge increase in testing.

I guess we just use next Monday (To get a 7 day average) as the new baseline and see where the cases go from there.
 
SmallTown said:
I guess that'll be a lot of work but yes as I understand it the number of positives tests per tests carried out has dropped quite a bit. Given the huge increase in testing.

I guess we just use next Monday (To get a 7 day average) as the new baseline and see where the cases go from there.
Click to expand...

Right but its only a 7 day baseline and gives us no idea what a 'dangerous' trend would look like.
% rate and tests processed doesn't alleviate that issue but at least gives people who might otherwise be concerned a little more context.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Right but its only a 7 day baseline and gives us no idea what a 'dangerous' trend would look like.
% rate and tests processed doesn't alleviate that issue but at least gives people who might otherwise be concerned a little more context.
Click to expand...
This is true. With the vaccines and improved treatments the amount of cases is becoming less and less relevant I guess. I still follow it myself just so I know infection trends but you’re right, you can’t compare this week to any other previous week
 
Alvez_48 said:
Hey @Billy Horner could you add positive % rate and tests processed to your stats because as they are now they are worthless at the moment and actually misleading
Click to expand...

It would be pretty fiddly to be honest, as you need to download both data files every day and manually sort them to enable you to cut and paste the relevant numbers in your own spreadsheet. It's okay as a one off but, given my work and family commitments at the moment, I don't think I'd have the time to do it on a daily basis (people may have noticed that my postings have become later and later recently).

I also wouldn't agree with your assertion that the stats are worthless or misleading at the moment. Yes, testing has increased again in recent days, but people are perfectly aware of that and seem to understand that a slightly slower decline in new cases (or even a slight increase) is actually better news than it might appear at first glance.

I've been posting the daily case numbers and % growth/decline since 1st April last year. At that time, we were testing around 12,000 people per day, which is less than 1% of what we're testing now.

At various points over the past year, the testing capacity has ramped up, which people could have argued made the stats meaningless back then. However, the numbers settle down again after a while and I think people still find the stats interesting and of relevance. They're designed to provide an overview, not a detailed analysis.
 
Fair enough but it's more than just ramping up testing and is say a little context might help your 'overview'.
You'll be posting these for years so you might want to look into some automation. 😉
 
Showing % of positives isn't really meaningful either as it's not comparable to other times, as out of 500k of those kids tested, 500k of them didn't have any reasons or symptoms. The other 1m were just what we were doing previous, but a lot of them tests came from symptoms and covid contacts etc.

The best way would be to isolate out lateral flows or the kids, from the PCR's/ rest but I don't think that's possible? Not sure where Billy gets his data?

We need to just accept this week is not comparible to last, watch out for daily increase trends (after the first 1.5m day) and keep an eye on hospital admissions. Then from next week we can probably go back to comparing cases "like for like" again, assuming the test numbers remain relatively the same.

Of course we can still probably compare the weekends, as there's no school then, but it's more susceptible to variance.
 
Andy_W said:
The best way would be to isolate out lateral flows or the kids, from the PCR's/ rest but I don't think that's possible? Not sure where Billy gets his data?
Click to expand...

I use the government’s Coronavirus data website, which is (usually) updated daily at 4pm. Unfortunately, they don’t separate out PCR tests from lateral flow tests, so whilst we all know that it’s the lateral flow tests in schools that have caused the issue, there’s no way of isolating those in the data.
 
As of 9am on 12 March, 4,248,286 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 6,609.

175 deaths were reported today

143,259 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 26 February)

23,314,525 have had a first dose vaccination. 260,809 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 1,445,078 ,have had a second dose. 93,563 second dose vaccinations today.
 
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