The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

[Andy_W]

I've been a big advocate of lockdown, but I don't think there's anything to back up the major restrictions now, the opening should be accelerated for the good of the economy, as it's nowhere near costing us excess deaths or hospitalisations, or is likely to again. There's a belt of the worst areas along the M62, from Manchester to Hull, other than that everywhere should be open now, at the very least.

Stop nightclubs opening and prevent standing in pubs until all adults have been offered at least one vaccine, and keep masks and handwashing in supermarkets and indoor public places where they're no hindrance, but other than that I can't see any reason to be stopping business from operating. There's a lot less "bang for buck" to what we're doing now, it's not efficient.

The way I see it now, if another strain comes in, and takes over then that's something we will need to deal with, if it happens, but waiting around in case it does happen, without proof it will happen isn't the right way to go about it.

 

[BoroFur]

The R rate gets updated some time on Friday doesn't it? So that's last week's value. I'm still a bit (only a bit) worried that new infections seem to have stopped falling, although they are not rising either. Is this last week's relaxations kicking in? They have been rising where I am but I suspect that's because my borough is being 'surge' tested.

At one point not so long ago there was a general expectation that cases would 'level off' at somewhere between 5,000 and 6,000 per day but here we are at 2,500.

Billy's daily statistics particularly with regards to 7 and 14 days previous are well worth a look. The latest being:

• 7-day average for new cases is 7.3% lower than one week ago (from 9.4% lower yesterday) and 13.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 19.8% lower yesterday and 41.6% lower 7 days ago)

 

[Doom_On_Horseback]

I've been a big advocate of lockdown, but I don't think there's anything to back up the major restrictions now, the opening should be accelerated for the good of the economy, as it's nowhere near costing us excess deaths or hospitalisations, or is likely to again. There's a belt of the worst areas along the M62, from Manchester to Hull, other than that everywhere should be open now, at the very least.

Stop nightclubs opening and prevent standing in pubs until all adults have been offered at least one vaccine, and keep masks and handwashing in supermarkets and indoor public places where they're no hindrance, but other than that I can't see any reason to be stopping business from operating. There's a lot less "bang for buck" to what we're doing now, it's not efficient.

The way I see it now, if another strain comes in, and takes over then that's something we will need to deal with, if it happens, but waiting around in case it does happen, without proof it will happen isn't the right way to go about it.

Everything is pretty much open from the 17th May anyway isn't it? Can't see the government bringing that forward. It's only another 3 weeks.

 

[TheYorkshireTerrier]

Everything is pretty much open from the 17th May anyway isn't it? Can't see the government bringing that forward. It's only another 3 weeks.

Night clubs and big events like festivals is in June isn't it?

 

[Andy_W]

Everything is pretty much open from the 17th May anyway isn't it? Can't see the government bringing that forward. It's only another 3 weeks.

3 more weeks of furlough, 3 more weeks of businesses shut or not making money/ paying tax etc, why?

Why wait? We've probably already overcome 98% of the risk of any more covid deaths (never mind going back into excess).

12m have had two jabs, 5m of them nearly a month of "bedding in". Yes, we may get more vaccinated, but equally each day the vaccines in some will likely be wearing off marginally.

Those at risk who are not vaccinated will never not be at risk, their risk now is about as low as it can get, for the next few years at least?

There will still be a large portion of the population (like myself) who have not yet had a jab, who would still be being extra careful (not wanting long covid), as in being more self-protective than the measures require. Just because we can open up, doesn't mean everyone will go bananas (although some will of course).

We've probably took the possible risk level from 100 to 2, I don't see much point in taking that to 1, as it is impossible to maintain that 1, until the rest of the world is vaccinated (which is about 5 years away). Covid 0 is not possible, so there's little point in us trying to get there, if the most at risk are as covered now as they ever will be.

 

[Doom_On_Horseback]

3 more weeks of furlough, 3 more weeks of businesses shut or not making money/ paying tax etc, why?

Why wait? We've probably already overcome 98% of the risk of any more covid deaths (never mind going back into excess).

12m have had two jabs, 5m of them nearly a month of "bedding in". Yes, we may get more vaccinated, but equally each day the vaccines in some will likely be wearing off marginally.

Those at risk who are not vaccinated will never not be at risk, their risk now is about as low as it can get, for the next few years at least?

There will still be a large portion of the population (like myself) who have not yet had a jab, who would still be being extra careful (not wanting long covid), as in being more self-protective than the measures require. Just because we can open up, doesn't mean everyone will go bananas (although some will of course).

We've probably took the possible risk level from 100 to 2, I don't see much point in taking that to 1, as it is impossible to maintain that 1, until the rest of the world is vaccinated (which is about 5 years away). Covid 0 is not possible, so there's little point in us trying to get there, if the most at risk are as covered now as they ever will be.

I hear you. I do. I'm just playing devil's advocate. He's always maintained the mantra of 'not before' those dates outlined. He's not going to bring them forward IMO by 3 weeks. He'd be slammed if he did and rates started escalating again.

 

[Andy_W]

I hear you. I do. I'm just playing devil's advocate. He's always maintained the mantra of 'not before' those dates outlined. He's not going to bring them forward IMO by 3 weeks. He'd be slammed if he did and rates started escalating again.

Yeah, I know he won't either, I just hate the way this government is so slow and static.

Far too slow to lock down (twice) and now far too slow to come out of it.

The risk now compared to unlocking in December is crazy. If they treat now as a risk, what the hell was December all about?

 

[Randy]

What's the difference between standing up and sitting down in a pub Andy? What difference does it make?

 

[bear66]

The R rate gets updated some time on Friday doesn't it? So that's last week's value. I'm still a bit (only a bit) worried that new infections seem to have stopped falling, although they are not rising either. Is this last week's relaxations kicking in? They have been rising where I am but I suspect that's because my borough is being 'surge' tested.

Yes, last week's figure. The R number was falling more quickly in Wales which has an infection rate about a third of England's.

 

[Andy_W]

What's the difference between standing up and sitting down in a pub Andy? What difference does it make?

More proximity to people you don't know, not in your group, this wouldn't work out well for those that had been cautious (risk increase)
The above leading to closer mixing with people who may not be as "rule following" as your group (risk increase)
Stood up likely also leads to probably more congestion or even overcrowding (risk increase)
Probably also leads to higher volume, people talking louder/ shouting etc (risk increase)
Staff will find it harder to keep their distance if transiting through etc (risk increase for those that have little choice)

Generally sitting down things tend to stay calmer, and you're not within proximity to people you won't know as well.

Most places could open all doors and windows at this time of year also, it wouldn't be toasty, but being outside in a pub at 9pm has been fecking cold this last week!

Basically, what I'm saying is more things can happen and go ahead if people minimise risk where possible, and don't take liberties. Although actually, some people probably wouldn't minimise risk and would go stupid, which is probably why things aren't fully open. Effectively we're catering for those who can't control themselves or behave. It's annoying, but actually, the government might have finally realised we have a large proportion of idiots.

 

[Randy]

So in other words there is no difference at all in any potential spread of any virus from standing up or sitting down.
Non sentient viruses have no concept of height, space, time, light or dark, indoors or outdoors. No matter what SAGE may say.

 

[SmallTown]

So in other words there is no difference at all in any potential spread of any virus from standing up or sitting down.
Non sentient viruses have no concept of height, space, time, light or dark, indoors or outdoors. No matter what SAGE may say.

To say the have no concept of indoors and outdoors is to miss the point: Transmission is far less likely outdoors. No matter how ignorant the virus is of the laws of physics it still abides by them

 

[Andy_W]

So in other words there is no difference at all in any potential spread of any virus from standing up or sitting down.
Non sentient viruses have no concept of height, space, time, light or dark, indoors or outdoors. No matter what SAGE may say.

Well, if you want to look at it that way you can, but you're missing the point. It's not the act, it's what comes with it, and it's SAGE's job to assess the whole risk, not look at everything individually, like pretending risks cannot compound.

Would you jump out of a plane, without a parachute? I guess not?
Why not though? The jumping out won't kill you, right, so what's the problem?

Oh yeah, gravity, and the ground, and those things associated with jumping out of a plane. They all come together, so need to be treat as such.

 

[Randy]

Well, if you want to look at it that way you can, but you're missing the point. It's not the act, it's what comes with it, and it's SAGE's job to assess the whole risk, not look at everything individually, like pretending risks cannot compound.

Would you jump out of a plane, without a parachute? I guess not?
Why not though? The jumping out won't kill you, right, so what's the problem?

Oh yeah, gravity, and the ground, and those things associated with jumping out of a plane. They all come together, so need to be treat as such.

When I'm sat down I could be the same height a smaller person stood up.
Your also allowed to stand up and socialise in a big old shop like Primark so, one wonders if Ferguson modelled that one?
Or the 22 players from opposing football teams coming together for 90 minutes every few days (of course with testing which isn't 100%).

Anyways doesn't matter much, indoor hospitality is shut in England until May 17th. I could go to Scotland of course and eat inside and have a glass of coke but no alcohol, only when your outside. clever little virus

 

[SmallTown]

Well, if you want to look at it that way you can, but you're missing the point. It's not the act, it's what comes with it, and it's SAGE's job to assess the whole risk, not look at everything individually, like pretending risks cannot compound.

Would you jump out of a plane, without a parachute? I guess not?
Why not though? The jumping out won't kill you, right, so what's the problem?

Oh yeah, gravity, and the ground, and those things associated with jumping out of a plane. They all come together, so need to be treat as such.

Yeah but gravity is just a theory...

 

[SmallTown]

When I'm sat down I could be the same height a smaller person stood up.
Your also allowed to stand up and socialise in a big old shop like Primark so, one wonders if Ferguson modelled that one?
Or the 22 players from opposing football teams coming together for 90 minutes every few days (of course with testing which isn't 100%).

Anyways doesn't matter much, indoor hospitality is shut in England until May 17th. I could go to Scotland of course and eat inside and have a glass of coke but no alcohol, only when your outside.

Honestly Randy: are you really questioning the difference between virus spread indoors and outdoors? It's been scientifically proven the difference. The amount of ppm of virus in the open air is significantly smaller than the same for inside a room. Making transmission much less likely

 

[Randy]

Honestly Randy: are you really questioning the difference between virus spread indoors and outdoors? It's been scientifically proven the difference. The amount of ppm of virus in the open air is significantly smaller than the same for inside a room. Making transmission much less likely

Nope I'm questioning the difference between sitting down and standing up in response to Andy's post about loosening lockdown restrictions everywhere except pubs and restaurants.

Interesting that you point out about the ppm of the virus in open air is smaller than inside a room, makes you wonder why the government's of the world kept everybody locked up for over a year now doesn't it? Those poor buggers who live in high rise flats or apartment buildings.

Anyways all done on that matter. The sun's out, I'm sat in my back garden, mask less. Once the kids have gone to bed tonight we've got some friends coming over for a BBQ and a few beers, we haven't got enough chairs for all of us so some of us will be stood up so I do apologise if that's upset some people but no guidance will be broken so all good in the beautiful climate of Great Ayton today.

 

[SmallTown]

Nope I'm questioning the difference between sitting down and standing up in response to Andy's post about loosening lockdown restrictions everywhere except pubs and restaurants.

Interesting that you point out about the ppm of the virus in open air is smaller than inside a room, makes you wonder why the government's of the world kept everybody locked up for over a year now doesn't it? Those poor buggers who live in high rise flats or apartment buildings.

No it doesn't. Doesn't make me wonder that at all. And it wouldn't make you wonder that if you just thought about it

 

[Andy_W]

When I'm sat down I could be the same height a smaller person stood up.
Your also allowed to stand up and socialise in a big old shop like Primark so, one wonders if Ferguson modelled that one?
Or the 22 players from opposing football teams coming together for 90 minutes every few days (of course with testing which isn't 100%).

Anyways doesn't matter much, indoor hospitality is shut in England until May 17th. I could go to Scotland of course and eat inside and have a glass of coke but no alcohol, only when your outside.

You do yourself (or those others that want things open) no favours, you try and find issues where there are none, or just ignore things that don't suit your narrative, why?
Why not concentrate on where your points would be valid, or provide some counter to your points that get easily shot down (by science, fact, reason and common sense)?

It's not the sitting down/ standing up, or the height, again, nobody has ever said it was anything to do with the height. It's what comes with that. Do you think a group of 100 people stood up in a bar would be easier or harder to control for the bar staff (than 100 sat on dedicated separated tables)? What stops them all stood up, congregating in one area, after a few beers, or hanging around the bar like people love to do? What physical or impractical barriers are there from each other (and other groups)?

I don't think socialising in shops has been shown as advisable or encouraged, plus people have been asked to shop on their own where possible, and not meet up with others indoors (which would also apply to shops). Plus, in shops people wear masks, and generally arent' talking/ shouting in each other's faces, or eating or drinking.

Football is outside, proven less risk, and again how often are people in the face of someone shouting? I can't remember the last time that happened to me and I play twice a week.
Pro's get tested often, and no, tests are not 100%, no test ever is, but they may be 99% and their interaction with joe public is lower. The chance of people playing, when sick, is extremely low. The chance of someone going to a restaurant, pub or something less strenuous, when sick, is much higher.

People are d***heads when drunk/ drinking, and act extremely differently, have you not realised that yet? I'm talking from first hand experience, on both sides
People don't generally just "go to Scotland" for a few beers, or a coke even
Scotland has less cases and is a lot more "spread out", and also doesn't have the village idiot running the show

There's plenty of valid points of why things should/ could open, like the case risk now is low, the most at risk are vaccinated, hospitals are pretty mcuh back to normal, we've got seasonality on our side etc. But you're raising arguments with the wrong things, you're denying basic science or common sense of obvious risk changes, yet you could just say "the risk is now low, no matter what we do".

 

[Andy_W]

Honestly Randy: are you really questioning the difference between virus spread indoors and outdoors? It's been scientifically proven the difference. The amount of ppm of virus in the open air is significantly smaller than the same for inside a room. Making transmission much less likely

I hope he's on the wind-up, I really do.