The end?

The U.K. media often have reports like that, I wonder if it’s to keep the public on the side of the government continuing to fund the Ukraine army.

I'm not sure, I think it is fairly reflective of the challenges of mining and bedding in to defend. Most armour will struggle with that.

I think this thread always feels very optimistic and the progress I feel i'm reading about is a lot slower than perhaps is reflecting on the ground. This thread always feels like it is one big push from Russian collapse. It has felt like that since its creation unfortunately.

Still in for the long haul but I hope all the little victories come together as soon as possible.
 
I'm not sure, I think it is fairly reflective of the challenges of mining and bedding in to defend. Most armour will struggle with that.

I think this thread always feels very optimistic and the progress I feel i'm reading about is a lot slower than perhaps is reflecting on the ground. This thread always feels like it is one big push from Russian collapse. It has felt like that since its creation unfortunately.

Still in for the long haul but I hope all the little victories come together as soon as possible.
This thread to me is a nice place for escapism, that belief that we are just on the edge of things getting straightened out.
The fact that Borolads mate is imaginary doesn't change that. (joke!)
 
This thread to me is a nice place for escapism, that belief that we are just on the edge of things getting straightened out.
The fact that Borolads mate is imaginary doesn't change that. (joke!)
back in the early earlier days in the thread I did post ( #1,519) asking Borolad if his mate was really just his alter ego, what stays in fight club and all that, but he reckoned he was not clever enough to post all that stuff ;) either way it is super interesting thread
 
Somewhat at odds with the message on this thread.
I don’t think it’s at odds it’s more of a myopic interpretation.

It’s a western media report focussing on big ticket western country donations with a question on why they haven’t driven all the way to the Crimea beaches yet.

We know from open source and from our insider info that actually the conditions still are not right for that kind of advance but other western equipment - artillery - is making that so.

The BBC article didn’t really deliver a broader context.
 
A side note on a significant shift

"
In small things that people just read the headline of sometimes heralds shifts that are truly momentous as we move forward.
Yesterday we had such a small thing...

I am talking about President Biden signing the order to hand over the evidence for Russian War Crimes in Ukraine.
This sounds like a small and natural thing for the US to do.
It came after an Information Request from the ICC in Hague.
Sounds inocous indeed, but in reality this is an order to hand over any evidence that the US has on ongoing war crimes.

The US is not a signatory of the Rome Statute, and is very reluctant to even acknowledge that the ICC exists.
Signing, or even acknowledging would shatter the prevailing Pax Americana that the Western world has lived under since the second world war.
Ie., that the US has the sole right to judge US citizens (with contracted exceptions to a number of countries), and that it has been seen to be the legal system that others need to follow.

Not signing and acknowledging also makes it impossible to charge US Citizens in the ICC (theoretically).
And the US has had some dubious occurances happening during some of the wars, I am diplomatic here.

The ICC has instead always seen itself as the premiere Court of Law on War Crimes for the entire World.
Previously they have charged people from Africa that was not signatories, nor had acknowledged the court, but to be honest those where just small fishes compared to Russia, US and China.
Whacking one of those would set the precedence for pretty much eternity that it is Pax Europeana and the European International Courts that has sole right to charge and try people in a wider sense.

People often mistake the ICC as being only the War Crimes Tribunal, but no. It is the International Crimes Court.
By Charging Russian citizens they set the precedent that they have the right to do it against whomever, and by Biden acknowledging the Request the US has sanctioned it.

It is a momentous shift towards the Rule of Law being international and that it is for everyone, even leaders of superpowers.
Guess why it took Biden 6 months of teeth gnashing to sign it.

Politically it swung the pendulum quite a bit towards the EU, who is now a Global Superpower in all but name, without even technically having an army.
In everything else it is now the Top Dawg, it has even in some ways supplanted the UN due to the UN inactions.

In the end it is bright light in the Dark to see the Rule of Law being enacted and winning.
It will take time, but from now on leaders everywhere will start to manage things a tad less brutal at least.
Wars will be harder to justify for leaders since there from now on will be consequences.
We might even have fewer, or at least smaller wars."
 
Somewhat at odds with the message on this thread.

Two things.
1, the slower than hoped progress is down to lack of air power ... this may change soon
2, Surovikin's defences
3. Comining 1 & 2 with the reluctance of the Ukrainian command to send their soldiers to slaughter.

Anyway, apparently there is good news coming ... he just can't say yet.

I suppose this thread feels relatively optimistic because actually, militarily, Ukraine has been in the ascendency since March 2022. The fact that the Russians are still fighting and being killed in large numbers is because their political masters in Moscow simply cannot afford to lose. But a breakthrough will happen. It just might not be as quick as we'd all like, because we all want this to end.
 
back in the early earlier days in the thread I did post ( #1,519) asking Borolad if his mate was really just his alter ego, what stays in fight club and all that, but he reckoned he was not clever enough to post all that stuff ;) either way it is super interesting thread
I'm addicted to this thread. I check it out a few times a day. Never been so engaged. Haven't really commented but is so fukkkin interesting.
 
A side note on a significant shift

"
In small things that people just read the headline of sometimes heralds shifts that are truly momentous as we move forward.
Yesterday we had such a small thing...

I am talking about President Biden signing the order to hand over the evidence for Russian War Crimes in Ukraine.
This sounds like a small and natural thing for the US to do.
It came after an Information Request from the ICC in Hague.
Sounds inocous indeed, but in reality this is an order to hand over any evidence that the US has on ongoing war crimes.

The US is not a signatory of the Rome Statute, and is very reluctant to even acknowledge that the ICC exists.
Signing, or even acknowledging would shatter the prevailing Pax Americana that the Western world has lived under since the second world war.
Ie., that the US has the sole right to judge US citizens (with contracted exceptions to a number of countries), and that it has been seen to be the legal system that others need to follow.

Not signing and acknowledging also makes it impossible to charge US Citizens in the ICC (theoretically).
And the US has had some dubious occurances happening during some of the wars, I am diplomatic here.

The ICC has instead always seen itself as the premiere Court of Law on War Crimes for the entire World.
Previously they have charged people from Africa that was not signatories, nor had acknowledged the court, but to be honest those where just small fishes compared to Russia, US and China.
Whacking one of those would set the precedence for pretty much eternity that it is Pax Europeana and the European International Courts that has sole right to charge and try people in a wider sense.

People often mistake the ICC as being only the War Crimes Tribunal, but no. It is the International Crimes Court.
By Charging Russian citizens they set the precedent that they have the right to do it against whomever, and by Biden acknowledging the Request the US has sanctioned it.

It is a momentous shift towards the Rule of Law being international and that it is for everyone, even leaders of superpowers.
Guess why it took Biden 6 months of teeth gnashing to sign it.

Politically it swung the pendulum quite a bit towards the EU, who is now a Global Superpower in all but name, without even technically having an army.
In everything else it is now the Top Dawg, it has even in some ways supplanted the UN due to the UN inactions.

In the end it is bright light in the Dark to see the Rule of Law being enacted and winning.
It will take time, but from now on leaders everywhere will start to manage things a tad less brutal at least.
Wars will be harder to justify for leaders since there from now on will be consequences.
We might even have fewer, or at least smaller wars."

Really good points he makes.

I think this settles the question as to whether this is just borolads alter ego. No way is he this perceptive, the thick tvvat.
 
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Part one of the good news... on taking the pee. Apologise on his behalf for some of his apparent gleefulness... remember, this is shared amongst a few friends who know him and understand it's just his way of keeping us/him on the lighter side.

"So, time for the good news (more is coming)

Luhansk
Russian offensives in Luhansk produced 3 weird nipple like protrusions.
To form these Russia sacrificed a lot of tanks, I partook in the southern most nipple-battle.
Afterwards the Russians replaced the vehicles with infantry and ordered them to dig in and fight.

Problem was that these nipples was eminently sized and shaped to allow Ukrainian artillery to indescriminatly shell them with cluster munition.
At the same time a lot of counter-battery fire was done taking out high numbers of Russian artillery systems.

The first nipple that was halted outside of Tor'ske still remain, but is a blood bath by now, hammered by tank attacks and artillery against infantry.
Remember that this area is not mined, so tank charges into the nipples are a good thing to do.

The two nipples to the north of the Tor'ske nipple are now crushed with high casualty rate on the Russian side.
Having artillery on 3 sides on an open field without prepared defences and trenches is a death sentence for infantry.

Bakhmut
In the North new attack vectors have been started to cut up the "Northern Bulge" and to increase momentum towards Soledar.
At the same time control has increased in the direction of Krasna Hodar and Yahidne, with fighting ongoing in Yahidne.
Ukraine is now in control of about 5 percent of Bakhmut itself, roughly two city streets in.
Ukraine are mersilessly using mortars and long range artillery to fire on Russian positions inside Bakhmut.
Obviously Ukraine will not storm Bakhmut, instead they are going for tacticaal encrirclement.

In the south Andri'ivka and Klichi'ivka has fallen and Ukraine has partially advanced towards Opytne.
Further South there are signs that Kurdyiumivka is about to fall, and Ukraine is pushing towards the important town of Mykolaivka from Andri'ivka.
It is an important hub and supply spot for Russia.
At the same time they are pushing from Andri'ivka toward Odradivka.
Between Odradivka and Kurdyumivka run the important T0513 road that is the current main supply road between Horlivka/Donetsk City and Bakhmut.
By cutting that Ukraine has an open road towards Horlivka and can roll up everything down to Horlivka.

Russia went into panic mode here and grabbed the last unit they had in their reserve bag and chucked them straight into the fight to turn the tide.
They sent in the mighty Kadyrovite Akhmat Battalion expecting them to for once fight and not Tiktok.
Well, they did fight but still made hilarious tiktoks of them as the got encircled, completely encircled.

So, who did they get sent against?
The Azov Battalion (it is a Brigade, but it is still called a battalion...)
Akhmat is no more.
Half of the kadyrovtsy was transformed into spitted kebabs, and the other half was last seen being charted of crying and wounded.

Turned out that tiktoking shoting lightpoles and bushes is not the same thing as fighting against a unit that has been at the frontline since 2014...
Chechnya is now filled with mourning goat-wives.

Shell Hunger
Before I move on, entire artillery regiments have now gone silent due to shell hunger.
Ukraines relentless cutting of supply routes and blowing up warehouses have finally started to have the needed effect.
Yes, Russia is probably holding back smaller supplies to defend against breakthroughs, but mostly they will have to defend with Infantry only without artillery support.

This is the moment Ukraine has been waiting for.
Obviously Russia knows about their problems, that is why Shoigu all of a sudden flew to North Korea to be for shells...
Rumours are that Russia might get 2 million shells, but even if they get that it will take more than a month for them to arrive, and Ukraine are waiting for them so that they can blow as much as possible up.
And, 2 million shells are not so much after Ukraine has blown up half of it.
But, Ukraine want to get as far as possible while the shell hunger hampers the "Russian Style".

Staromai'orske
Staromaior'ske is now fully liberated and Urozhaine (that I can't pronounce without getting into giggle-fits, yes I am that silly) has been taken into a pocket and will soon be liberated.
Taking Urozhaine opens up a secondary attack vector toward Staromlynivka.
Ukraie is already right North of Staromlynivka, and as soon as Urozhaine is taken the most important battle starts to date.

Staromlynivka is a central logistics hub of the much vaunted Surovikin-line.
If Ukraine can break through on either side, or through the town, there is a whole lot of Nothing between them and Mariupol.
There are a few minor defencive positons, but no coherent line, nor any big minefields.

Obviously Russia knows that this is it for them.
They are concentrating for all they are worth to be able to hold the Surovikin line, but if it starts to buckle, there is nothing there to save them from the rear.

To perform this another brigade has been injected under the command of my second favourite colonel, so he now has two Brigades to dance around and sting like a bee with.
There is rumours about a star on the shoulders for him and that he will be upgraded to a brigadeer.

Robotyne
Colonel Dumbass once more hammered against the front of Robotyne, while his more adroit colleague snuck around Robotyne and put it in a operational control, and merrily started to storm the place from the South.

Kakhovka
My third favourite colonel is bogged down somewhat by a surprisingly spirited VDV-battalion under command of a Captain.
This tells oodles about the lack of high ranking officers now after the successful campaign of "hoteling" them.
The Colonel has broken through the defence line there, but then he ended up in a mobile running battle with the VDV-dudes.

He is though confident that with the new Brigade he is getting that he can supress them and carry on in short order.
Olek***dr has tentatively put the new Brigade under the Colonel on a per trial basis.
If he succeeds he is moving upwards, if he fails it will be a career stopper.
He is a tad stodgy, but he get things done, so I have hopes for him.

On Victories
We are talking about more than six important victories for Ukraine in a single day.
It is by far the best day during the Ukrainian Offensive, and a much needed signal of strength for what is to come.

I should mentioned that the Heavy Mechanized Brigade at Vuhledar that holds that Rampart to the H20 that never seems to be inserted on the battle map, has gotten a supporting brigade.

Black Sea Patrols
NATO is increasing signal reconnaissance flights and drone flights in the Black Sea.
It was also decided that "Marine Aviation Patrols" would be flown in the Black Sea.
That means fighter jets to protect drones and signal intelligence flights.

They are not there to protect shipping as such, but they will pull a lot of Russian resources away to track and follow those fighters.

NATO Signal Intelligence
Some good news that was overlooked while everyone screamed "ATACMS".
Ukraine has finally been cleared for unfiltered signal intelligence at the same level as a NATO Partnership for Peace Country.
That means that they get almost the same data density as I get.

Weirdly enough Olek***dr called and thanked me of all people for helping them getting it.
All I did was write it in a report a week ago that I had already forgotten about, in it I did recommend giving them access.
How he knew that is beyond me.

In other news
We are running out of targets, they do try to rebuild bridges, but not a lot of new equipment is brough in to replace what we removed with out 8000 high precission shells (I did not joke that we wore out our barrels).

This means that I can use the missile batteries for more "creative" stuff further out.
I truly detest bridges on a philosophical basis, people are far better off swiming across creeks and rivers.
And it dawned on me that there are not that many bridges between me and Crimea.
Perhaps the Russians would enjoy a leisurely swim across bodies of water during their Crimean Vacation?"
 
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Looks like the painstaking process of weakening the Russians is starting to pay off. Hopefully a major breakthrough is on the cards now and I think if this occurs will see a collapse of russian lines and moral.

Looking forward to his further good news!
 
A side note on a significant shift

"
In small things that people just read the headline of sometimes heralds shifts that are truly momentous as we move forward.
Yesterday we had such a small thing...

I am talking about President Biden signing the order to hand over the evidence for Russian War Crimes in Ukraine.
This sounds like a small and natural thing for the US to do.
It came after an Information Request from the ICC in Hague.
Sounds inocous indeed, but in reality this is an order to hand over any evidence that the US has on ongoing war crimes.

The US is not a signatory of the Rome Statute, and is very reluctant to even acknowledge that the ICC exists.
Signing, or even acknowledging would shatter the prevailing Pax Americana that the Western world has lived under since the second world war.
Ie., that the US has the sole right to judge US citizens (with contracted exceptions to a number of countries), and that it has been seen to be the legal system that others need to follow.

Not signing and acknowledging also makes it impossible to charge US Citizens in the ICC (theoretically).
And the US has had some dubious occurances happening during some of the wars, I am diplomatic here.

The ICC has instead always seen itself as the premiere Court of Law on War Crimes for the entire World.
Previously they have charged people from Africa that was not signatories, nor had acknowledged the court, but to be honest those where just small fishes compared to Russia, US and China.
Whacking one of those would set the precedence for pretty much eternity that it is Pax Europeana and the European International Courts that has sole right to charge and try people in a wider sense.

People often mistake the ICC as being only the War Crimes Tribunal, but no. It is the International Crimes Court.
By Charging Russian citizens they set the precedent that they have the right to do it against whomever, and by Biden acknowledging the Request the US has sanctioned it.

It is a momentous shift towards the Rule of Law being international and that it is for everyone, even leaders of superpowers.
Guess why it took Biden 6 months of teeth gnashing to sign it.

Politically it swung the pendulum quite a bit towards the EU, who is now a Global Superpower in all but name, without even technically having an army.
In everything else it is now the Top Dawg, it has even in some ways supplanted the UN due to the UN inactions.

In the end it is bright light in the Dark to see the Rule of Law being enacted and winning.
It will take time, but from now on leaders everywhere will start to manage things a tad less brutal at least.
Wars will be harder to justify for leaders since there from now on will be consequences.
We might even have fewer, or at least smaller wars."
Re "Politically it swung the pendulum quite a bit towards the EU, who is now a Global Superpower in all but name, without even technically having an army." The EU does have a military force (of sorts) called EUFOR that is currently active in Bosnia Herzegovina and has been present in some shape or form since 2004 and presently comprises troops from: (Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Chile, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Republic of North Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, Türkiye). These countries don't contribute troops all the time it depends on the situation in BiH and the willingness of each country to contribute given their domestic/foreign policies. I was involved at Camp Eagle Base in Tuzla 2004-2007 when the contributing nations were Sweden and Hungary. Swedish AF were the lead nation then and they were brilliant to work with, so it's nice to read the musings of your chap. Anyway, the point being is that the framework is there and the precedent has been set to potentially expand it should a vacuum come into play somewhere else. https://euforbih.org/
 
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