Just shows to me how much some eu countries free ride off the military of the US as well .
This war is more important to the eu , and they’re still spending less than the US
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Just shows to me how much some eu countries free ride off the military of the US as well .
This war is more important to the eu , and they’re still spending less than the US
masquesmog
Well-known member
more important to all European nations, including the UK.
On the blue bit Germany is spending more than the UK (obviously they have more money).
Imagine if there was a US President who challenged the 'free ride', including the size of the blue bits. Aren't the US currently providing 85%+ of the military support?
Last edited:
There was , it was trump
European countries need to get off their arses and start increasing military spending . I don’t blame Americans at all for being ***ed off with it . As far as I’m aware , the US spends 5% of its gdp on its military . There are quite a few in nato who don’t even hit the 2% needed for nato standards.
Even more galling is the US is europes security blanket and macron proceeds to stick two fingers up at them when in China
MolteniArcore
Well-known member
Russia is forever the enemy of the USA, that is why they are spending so much. It is in their interests to weaken Russia. Why should the EU do that for them?
News extra
"Ukraine has really hit the gas pedal now.
As I suspected it was my second favourite colonel that got things going as soon as he got reinforcements.
After taking Staromaior'ske he immediately hit Urozhaine across river and going south on the other side of the River.
Russian troops tried to evacuate, but are cut off and being liquidated right now.
Another force rounded Urozhaine and went down to Savitne Bazhannya that is now cut off from the East.
Yet another group ran all the way down to Volodyne West of Staromlunivka with heavy fighting ongoing using armoured vehicles that have nightfighting capabilities.
This means that as of now, Staromlynivka is under operational control.
This is obviously a direct assault on the Surovikin line within 24 hours of taking Staromaior'ske.
I expect 2 to 7 days of fighting to punch through the line, after that there is a whole lot of nothing down to Mariupol.
The Russians are now so desperate that they for the first time are deploying both ballistic missiles and cruise missiles on military targets in Zhaporizhzhia.
Note, neither types have been used for combat missions by the Russians against military frontline targets during the entire war."
"Ukraine has really hit the gas pedal now.
As I suspected it was my second favourite colonel that got things going as soon as he got reinforcements.
After taking Staromaior'ske he immediately hit Urozhaine across river and going south on the other side of the River.
Russian troops tried to evacuate, but are cut off and being liquidated right now.
Another force rounded Urozhaine and went down to Savitne Bazhannya that is now cut off from the East.
Yet another group ran all the way down to Volodyne West of Staromlunivka with heavy fighting ongoing using armoured vehicles that have nightfighting capabilities.
This means that as of now, Staromlynivka is under operational control.
This is obviously a direct assault on the Surovikin line within 24 hours of taking Staromaior'ske.
I expect 2 to 7 days of fighting to punch through the line, after that there is a whole lot of nothing down to Mariupol.
The Russians are now so desperate that they for the first time are deploying both ballistic missiles and cruise missiles on military targets in Zhaporizhzhia.
Note, neither types have been used for combat missions by the Russians against military frontline targets during the entire war."
Russia is nowhere near as relevant as it was before 1991. It’s not a superpower anymore as it no longer is as big an empire .
The enemy for the US is China . Russia is nothing but a mere vassal state to China now
Decent_Left
Well-known member
Or as a % of GDP the 3 Baltic states of Lithuania/Latvia & Estonia have donated the most with each donating over 1% of GDP almost a 3x bigger proportion than the US. The next 6 biggest donors on this basis are also EU members with Norway also donating a bigger proportion than the US.
Plus civil donations - it’s the 3 Baltic states where citizens run campaigns to crowdfund TB2’s. How does this get counted?
You then come to what could be supplied and the US has really deep stocks of stuff which were very easy to immediately release as aid. Current promises in terms of production and construction for repairs and manufacture are vastly higher in Europe.
You then get book keeping - on what basis is support being valued - amortised or resale? We saw how an accounting trick in the US allowed them to find $bns down the back of the sofa
Finally - what don’t we know, for example how has Sweden worked out how and where to cost for the travel and accommodation of semi retired fat lads who like taking holidays in Ukraine to check out the local talent in charge of mechanised brigades?
Let’s not turn this into an us and them argument, especially as I initially wrote this as a rant about the pace of the US delivering what they promised and thought better of it as they eventually do get their.
Er, crikey
"The Miracle at Verbove is quite simply that the Russians are miraculously stupid.
While Colonel Dumbass once more tried to attack Robotyne for the second time in the same day the other colonel that has a working brain went round and encircled Robotyne and started an attack fromt the Southeast against the town.
He did though not like Robotyne, so instead he struck due East against Verbove.
Here he met no resistance, no mines, just shiny white dragons teeth and empty trenches.
Not trusting his own eyes, nor drone eyes, he set an old tank to run over on automatic (on the drone video that was just released by a lonely Russian drone operator, the tank then hit the tank trench and bounced back.
The driver had by then legged it to his friend in a tree line.
A couple of hours later the Surovikin Line was thoroughly breached at Verbove.
It will here be interesting if they will go to Mariupol or Berdiansk from this attack vector.
What to learn?
There are two options of why this could happen.
Either this particular part was overlooked, no troops was assigned, and no mines emplaced, or the entire Surovikin Line is a giant and expensive hoax and all Russia ever had was the frontline (zero line)..
I think that the truth might be somewhere in between.
Obviously nobody mined the place, and this is indicative of me being right in that Russia did not have enough mines to cover 2000 kilometres of frontline and 7000km of trenches and defencive positions.
It is also safe to say that Russia never had the troops to effectively man 7000km of trench lines.
Due to Ukraine pulling out all the reserves in this slow grind there was no troops left to go and defend the trenchlines in the Surovikin line fast enough to stop the Ukrainians if they did a quick manouvre warfare attack.
Sidenote:: Colonel Havebrain did textbook manouvre warfare, I now have Fourth Favourite Colonel.
Anyway, it did not help either that all of the strategic reserves that Russia had was sent up to Luhansk to do a counter-offensive.
No sane general would do that, wait a second... Russia has generals left?
Apparently there is one up there attacking away.
Luhansk
Russia is still producing nipples.
Half of them actually stick, but in the greater scheme of things Ukraine can afford to loose a few nipples over time here.
It is empty land.
Obviously Ukraine does not want to loose any land, that is why they injected two modern Brigades, ours and another up North now.
But that is it, they will not insert more units here.
Zaluzhnyy firmly has the eyes on the ball in regards of cutting through in Zhaporizhzhia, and is willing to lose some nippel here and there in the process.
Zurskyis oneredeeming quality is that he is very good at static artillery demolition.
So, he has taken over the nipple destruction up North and seems to enjoy himself quite a bit as he does unspeakable things to Russians that are inside the nipples.
Problem is just that Russia is sprouting new nipples with the same speed as the Ukrainians crush them.
Obviously in the end Russia will run out of infantry to fill those nipples with, and it ends, but for now expect more nipples to erupt in Luhansk.
Also, expect the punderati to select a nipple of choice and suck it for all they are worth claiming the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian Army that will lead to the Russian occupation of Verdun, or some other silliness.
Smooth sailing?
No, it will not be smooth sailing from now on all the way down to Berdyansk and Mariupol.
I think it will be Mariupol, it would cut off the largest chunk of real estate.
I do expect that Russians to try to put up some sort of resistance, but in the end the Goodwill Gesture will come in Zhaporizhzhia.
Grumpification
Anyway, today I will get no sleep, got about 1 hour and now we are making the place tidy since we will get visitors, and in the evening I am going on a local colonel tour to the East to meet and greet my fellow colonels.
If I am lucky I will get 5 minutes here and there.
Anyway, Generals should be behind desks and not out about disturbing colonels that are working.
Small "yeah?"
I just learned that according the HQ I have now used more ordinance against an enemy than the entire Swedish Army has used in its entire history.
Not having fought in the world wars obviously helped with this, but Sweden has been in a surprising number of wars, and quite a few in modern warfare history, so I got a bit surprised about this.
I have also apparently killed more generals than any other Swedish battlefield commander.
At heart I am a sniper, so if I can I prefer to cut off the head of an enemy troop, compared to killing soldiers.
Anyway, I am not certain that I like this "honour".
I feel mostly meh, I do not enjoy killing people, it is just something that I unfortunately have to do.
So, I am most certainly not happy about ending up in a dusty tome in a library stating this.
And since I hope that this is when we learn that large wars is idiotic I suspect I might be stuck with this record for at least a couple of hundred years.
Anyway, scale.
Sweden has been in way to many wars.
So, if a lonely little colonel at the **** end of the general fighting ends up with this record as he is bopping away at a 70km section out of 2000km frontline, then you might understand the scale of the war in Ukraine.
It is now the third largest war in history counting soldiers and weaponry, and the fourth largest after the WWs and Rwanda/African Continental War (the term used by pro's) if you count the dead killed on the battle field.
I severely hope that Ukraine will not go to the reaches of Rwanda that had 4 million dead in total and attain the third spot on the killometer.
Anyhoos, I am now rambling...
Ye gods, I hate prying generals ambling about minding my business.
I might throttle at least one of them.
We will see!"
"The Miracle at Verbove is quite simply that the Russians are miraculously stupid.
While Colonel Dumbass once more tried to attack Robotyne for the second time in the same day the other colonel that has a working brain went round and encircled Robotyne and started an attack fromt the Southeast against the town.
He did though not like Robotyne, so instead he struck due East against Verbove.
Here he met no resistance, no mines, just shiny white dragons teeth and empty trenches.
Not trusting his own eyes, nor drone eyes, he set an old tank to run over on automatic (on the drone video that was just released by a lonely Russian drone operator, the tank then hit the tank trench and bounced back.
The driver had by then legged it to his friend in a tree line.
A couple of hours later the Surovikin Line was thoroughly breached at Verbove.
It will here be interesting if they will go to Mariupol or Berdiansk from this attack vector.
What to learn?
There are two options of why this could happen.
Either this particular part was overlooked, no troops was assigned, and no mines emplaced, or the entire Surovikin Line is a giant and expensive hoax and all Russia ever had was the frontline (zero line)..
I think that the truth might be somewhere in between.
Obviously nobody mined the place, and this is indicative of me being right in that Russia did not have enough mines to cover 2000 kilometres of frontline and 7000km of trenches and defencive positions.
It is also safe to say that Russia never had the troops to effectively man 7000km of trench lines.
Due to Ukraine pulling out all the reserves in this slow grind there was no troops left to go and defend the trenchlines in the Surovikin line fast enough to stop the Ukrainians if they did a quick manouvre warfare attack.
Sidenote:: Colonel Havebrain did textbook manouvre warfare, I now have Fourth Favourite Colonel.
Anyway, it did not help either that all of the strategic reserves that Russia had was sent up to Luhansk to do a counter-offensive.
No sane general would do that, wait a second... Russia has generals left?
Apparently there is one up there attacking away.
Luhansk
Russia is still producing nipples.
Half of them actually stick, but in the greater scheme of things Ukraine can afford to loose a few nipples over time here.
It is empty land.
Obviously Ukraine does not want to loose any land, that is why they injected two modern Brigades, ours and another up North now.
But that is it, they will not insert more units here.
Zaluzhnyy firmly has the eyes on the ball in regards of cutting through in Zhaporizhzhia, and is willing to lose some nippel here and there in the process.
Zurskyis oneredeeming quality is that he is very good at static artillery demolition.
So, he has taken over the nipple destruction up North and seems to enjoy himself quite a bit as he does unspeakable things to Russians that are inside the nipples.
Problem is just that Russia is sprouting new nipples with the same speed as the Ukrainians crush them.
Obviously in the end Russia will run out of infantry to fill those nipples with, and it ends, but for now expect more nipples to erupt in Luhansk.
Also, expect the punderati to select a nipple of choice and suck it for all they are worth claiming the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian Army that will lead to the Russian occupation of Verdun, or some other silliness.
Smooth sailing?
No, it will not be smooth sailing from now on all the way down to Berdyansk and Mariupol.
I think it will be Mariupol, it would cut off the largest chunk of real estate.
I do expect that Russians to try to put up some sort of resistance, but in the end the Goodwill Gesture will come in Zhaporizhzhia.
Grumpification
Anyway, today I will get no sleep, got about 1 hour and now we are making the place tidy since we will get visitors, and in the evening I am going on a local colonel tour to the East to meet and greet my fellow colonels.
If I am lucky I will get 5 minutes here and there.
Anyway, Generals should be behind desks and not out about disturbing colonels that are working.
Small "yeah?"
I just learned that according the HQ I have now used more ordinance against an enemy than the entire Swedish Army has used in its entire history.
Not having fought in the world wars obviously helped with this, but Sweden has been in a surprising number of wars, and quite a few in modern warfare history, so I got a bit surprised about this.
I have also apparently killed more generals than any other Swedish battlefield commander.
At heart I am a sniper, so if I can I prefer to cut off the head of an enemy troop, compared to killing soldiers.
Anyway, I am not certain that I like this "honour".
I feel mostly meh, I do not enjoy killing people, it is just something that I unfortunately have to do.
So, I am most certainly not happy about ending up in a dusty tome in a library stating this.
And since I hope that this is when we learn that large wars is idiotic I suspect I might be stuck with this record for at least a couple of hundred years.
Anyway, scale.
Sweden has been in way to many wars.
So, if a lonely little colonel at the **** end of the general fighting ends up with this record as he is bopping away at a 70km section out of 2000km frontline, then you might understand the scale of the war in Ukraine.
It is now the third largest war in history counting soldiers and weaponry, and the fourth largest after the WWs and Rwanda/African Continental War (the term used by pro's) if you count the dead killed on the battle field.
I severely hope that Ukraine will not go to the reaches of Rwanda that had 4 million dead in total and attain the third spot on the killometer.
Anyhoos, I am now rambling...
Ye gods, I hate prying generals ambling about minding my business.
I might throttle at least one of them.
We will see!"
Muttley
Well-known member
Interesting to see that Ukraine have now "offically" liberated Staromairs'ke. A quick glance at Google Maps will show you that this is equidistant between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia
(Helpfully ringed here as it's only a small place when you zoom out this far)
This represents a significant penetration of the defensive lines and obviously threatens to cut supply lines with a drive to the Sea of Azov at or between Mariupol and Berdyans'k. Once past the minefields we must hope that progress will accelerate. Perhaps a Kremlin power play will save a lot of lives by stopping this insanity.
(Helpfully ringed here as it's only a small place when you zoom out this far)
This represents a significant penetration of the defensive lines and obviously threatens to cut supply lines with a drive to the Sea of Azov at or between Mariupol and Berdyans'k. Once past the minefields we must hope that progress will accelerate. Perhaps a Kremlin power play will save a lot of lives by stopping this insanity.
Just been talking with matey boy He says that, if the line is properly breached at Verbove, the UAF will chuck the kitchen sink at it to grab as much as possible as quickly as possible. The coast is already in Himars range now.
Millbrook
Well-known member
Based on his last post is matey boy an adviser or participant in the military action?
MolteniArcore
Well-known member
Economically yes, I agree, but them yanks do have an obsession with Russia. It’s engrained in them. Might be the Cold War and all them nukes that they still have!?!
Scrote
Well-known member
I'd imagine it's about sphere of influence as much as anything economic. And those spheres are largely about military capability.
Russia have managed to prevent the US exerting more pressure in a few areas that they'd really have liked to (e.g. Iran, Syria). It'll be interesting to see how those dynamics develop if the consensus shifts to Russia being an ex-power in any conventional military sense.
Both really, in two roles. At the moment, more active.... for reasons that I can't really explain if I wanted to.
Had to redact a big chunk, but it was personal stuff. Anyway, people wanted action and advance.... it is happening.
"The Big Offensive
It has obviously begun.
The two current big vectors are at Slavomlynivka Eastwards and at Robotyne Eastwards.
As we flew in towards the Slavomlynivka HQ (it is not there) I saw a sea of men, armour, logistics and the diesel fumes lay thick over the land.
Once more, Scale.
I have never seen a full Division, today I saw two of them next to each other.
The brand new Brigadier (Tank Girl) are lording it over the 31st, 35th and 36th Mechanised, plus an artillery Brigade, plus a drone Brigade. Add to that a logistics Brigade, and a motor depot Brigade and you have a rather souped up Brigade.
Behind that one was a motorised infantry Division ready to follow after to secure the land.
That is an Army Group.
Currently all 3 mech Brigades are pounding the living bejeezus out of the Russians, and I can confirm that they have broken through the Surovikin Line.
They are currently widening the breach as fast as is humanly possible, while at the same time attacking more places along the line.
I expect them to need 2 to 7 days before they go full throttle to swim in the Azov Sea.
Over at Robotyne there are two mechanized Brigades, 1 artillery Brigade and an Infantry Brigade, plus a drone Battalion, and assorted support and logitistics units.
They are also breaching now the Suroviking Line and widening it.
Over at Kakhovka My new Second favourite Colonel is up against the Surovikin Line pounding it for all he is wort, so he kept his promise.
He is also widening the stretch infront of the line, a good manouver since he has not yet breached.
I promised him a bottle of very good Armenian Cognac for when is through and coming my way.
He has gotten another Brigade and 2 battalions worth of Artillery.
Over at Vuhledar you also have an Army Group, but they are for now sitting idle, except for shelling Mariupol.
Landbridge
The Landbridge is now under comfortable artillery control by the Ukrainians.
Both GLSDBs and GMLRS rockets can hit targets all the way to Mariupol and Berdyansk from two separate directions.
Something that Ukraine is taking liberal advantage of.
Conclusion
I have almost not slept for 36 hours and I am sitting outside in the dark before going in to the nightshift.
So, brief...
Even though I knew what Ukraine had in store, and how deep their reserves truly are, it was with a sigh of relief I saw with my own eyes the big offensive on the move.
We are though still weeks from them being at the coast.
They could probably do it in two, but they are very conscious about saving lives of their soldiers.
If they run out of them there is not much they can do.
One million soldiers might sound like a lot, but if you squander them like the Russians it is only enough for a year of warfare.
And Ukraine must use that Million again and again...
If they continue like this it is amply enough, regardless of how many the Russians mobify.
I knew roughly when the big one would start, but there are always things that are floating in the air, and you also depend on your enemy for these things.
But, on the whole I still hold to my late August/ early September for pictures of happily Swiming Ukrainians.
After that Southern Kherson will fall rapidly.
I still hold that Ukraine will dump the Bridge once and for all, and sit down to eat Borstj and bombard the land approaches to Crimea over the winter season.
I do though guess that Zaluzhnyy (note ... part of redacted was about meeting Zaluzhnyy) will do a bonus round just since he is a sly fox.
Note, he did not tell me about any other plans.
My guess is that he intended to go to Luhansk, but have scrapped that due to all the reinforcements of Russians there.
Instead I do think he is considering taking Soledar/Bakhmut, and then pound his way all the way down to Donetsk to put it under siege during the winter.
That Army Group over at Vuhledar is sort of giving it away.
There is also some sort of fuckery going on again up in Bilhorod, but nothing has been released yet, but the Russians are complaining about being bombarded, and they are once more evacuating people.
Unless Russia prollapses it will take Ukraine roughly to September next year to clear out the last Russian.
Obviously Russia could speed things up by Goodwilling, and I think they will do that very soon.
Or, they could give up and go home.
Of these 3 alternatives I rank them like this:
1. Goodwill of Zhaporizhzhia and Kherson.
2. Prollapse of Russia. (coup or breakup)
3. Russia gives up and goes home. I seriously believe they will continue for years even after getting kicked out, but that would sort of be a continuation war.
On a continuation war there are two distinct factions in the West.
Eastern and Northern Europe together with Germany and Spain are all for Ukraine doing a continuation war if needed.
The US and France are against, with Italy as neutral on this.
Basically the EU sans France are not keen on investing gigantic sums of money into rebuilding Ukraine into a shining pillar of European Expansion if the newly built things are blown up by random Russian crappy missiles, and are thusly very keen on having it solved once and for all.
The US and France are quite fine with Russia squandering resources indefinitely.
Distance does make for a difference in the logics on this.
This is not a criticism of the US.
Not at all, their reasoning is that as long as Russia is squandering its small resources they are not able to rearm and reequip and come for a second round as Germany did in WWII.
The EU weighs other equally cold details in our equation, like refugees, food safety for the EU... etcetera.
There is also the not so small part that with Ukraine inside the EU we are truly a superpower in all senses of the word.
Being a superpower is a cold business indeed.
Oh look, I did ramble in the end.
I will try to not ramble in the future.
We will see!"
Important update to this, Ukraine has arrived at the 3rd Surovikin line. There is nothing between there and Berdyansk but fields.
"The Big Offensive
It has obviously begun.
The two current big vectors are at Slavomlynivka Eastwards and at Robotyne Eastwards.
As we flew in towards the Slavomlynivka HQ (it is not there) I saw a sea of men, armour, logistics and the diesel fumes lay thick over the land.
Once more, Scale.
I have never seen a full Division, today I saw two of them next to each other.
The brand new Brigadier (Tank Girl) are lording it over the 31st, 35th and 36th Mechanised, plus an artillery Brigade, plus a drone Brigade. Add to that a logistics Brigade, and a motor depot Brigade and you have a rather souped up Brigade.
Behind that one was a motorised infantry Division ready to follow after to secure the land.
That is an Army Group.
Currently all 3 mech Brigades are pounding the living bejeezus out of the Russians, and I can confirm that they have broken through the Surovikin Line.
They are currently widening the breach as fast as is humanly possible, while at the same time attacking more places along the line.
I expect them to need 2 to 7 days before they go full throttle to swim in the Azov Sea.
Over at Robotyne there are two mechanized Brigades, 1 artillery Brigade and an Infantry Brigade, plus a drone Battalion, and assorted support and logitistics units.
They are also breaching now the Suroviking Line and widening it.
Over at Kakhovka My new Second favourite Colonel is up against the Surovikin Line pounding it for all he is wort, so he kept his promise.
He is also widening the stretch infront of the line, a good manouver since he has not yet breached.
I promised him a bottle of very good Armenian Cognac for when is through and coming my way.
He has gotten another Brigade and 2 battalions worth of Artillery.
Over at Vuhledar you also have an Army Group, but they are for now sitting idle, except for shelling Mariupol.
Landbridge
The Landbridge is now under comfortable artillery control by the Ukrainians.
Both GLSDBs and GMLRS rockets can hit targets all the way to Mariupol and Berdyansk from two separate directions.
Something that Ukraine is taking liberal advantage of.
Conclusion
I have almost not slept for 36 hours and I am sitting outside in the dark before going in to the nightshift.
So, brief...
Even though I knew what Ukraine had in store, and how deep their reserves truly are, it was with a sigh of relief I saw with my own eyes the big offensive on the move.
We are though still weeks from them being at the coast.
They could probably do it in two, but they are very conscious about saving lives of their soldiers.
If they run out of them there is not much they can do.
One million soldiers might sound like a lot, but if you squander them like the Russians it is only enough for a year of warfare.
And Ukraine must use that Million again and again...
If they continue like this it is amply enough, regardless of how many the Russians mobify.
I knew roughly when the big one would start, but there are always things that are floating in the air, and you also depend on your enemy for these things.
But, on the whole I still hold to my late August/ early September for pictures of happily Swiming Ukrainians.
After that Southern Kherson will fall rapidly.
I still hold that Ukraine will dump the Bridge once and for all, and sit down to eat Borstj and bombard the land approaches to Crimea over the winter season.
I do though guess that Zaluzhnyy (note ... part of redacted was about meeting Zaluzhnyy) will do a bonus round just since he is a sly fox.
Note, he did not tell me about any other plans.
My guess is that he intended to go to Luhansk, but have scrapped that due to all the reinforcements of Russians there.
Instead I do think he is considering taking Soledar/Bakhmut, and then pound his way all the way down to Donetsk to put it under siege during the winter.
That Army Group over at Vuhledar is sort of giving it away.
There is also some sort of fuckery going on again up in Bilhorod, but nothing has been released yet, but the Russians are complaining about being bombarded, and they are once more evacuating people.
Unless Russia prollapses it will take Ukraine roughly to September next year to clear out the last Russian.
Obviously Russia could speed things up by Goodwilling, and I think they will do that very soon.
Or, they could give up and go home.
Of these 3 alternatives I rank them like this:
1. Goodwill of Zhaporizhzhia and Kherson.
2. Prollapse of Russia. (coup or breakup)
3. Russia gives up and goes home. I seriously believe they will continue for years even after getting kicked out, but that would sort of be a continuation war.
On a continuation war there are two distinct factions in the West.
Eastern and Northern Europe together with Germany and Spain are all for Ukraine doing a continuation war if needed.
The US and France are against, with Italy as neutral on this.
Basically the EU sans France are not keen on investing gigantic sums of money into rebuilding Ukraine into a shining pillar of European Expansion if the newly built things are blown up by random Russian crappy missiles, and are thusly very keen on having it solved once and for all.
The US and France are quite fine with Russia squandering resources indefinitely.
Distance does make for a difference in the logics on this.
This is not a criticism of the US.
Not at all, their reasoning is that as long as Russia is squandering its small resources they are not able to rearm and reequip and come for a second round as Germany did in WWII.
The EU weighs other equally cold details in our equation, like refugees, food safety for the EU... etcetera.
There is also the not so small part that with Ukraine inside the EU we are truly a superpower in all senses of the word.
Being a superpower is a cold business indeed.
Oh look, I did ramble in the end.
I will try to not ramble in the future.
We will see!"
Important update to this, Ukraine has arrived at the 3rd Surovikin line. There is nothing between there and Berdyansk but fields.
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
I hope he gets some sleep soon.
Interesting comments about the continuation war, you do feel that it has to be settled once and for all so that the ordinary citizens of both Ukraine and Russia can confidently live in peace and get on with their lives.
Muttley
Well-known member
I've been reading a lot about Russian history recently in a bid to try to understand how they got to where they are. I'm not about to post my thoughts on it all but it is worth doing a little reading. Particularly the British (perfidious Albion) have a historical niche in the Psyche of the Russian leaders. Not just the Crimea War and our part in supporting the Whites in 1919/20 but also throughout the 19th Century there were two great global empires Britain and Russia and there were points of friction throughout the borders of Russia as Britain contrived to limit the Russian sphere of influence and this (I think) contributes to their feeling of being surrounded. As a maritime empire we were quite capable of doing this and limited their access to the oceans and therefore trade. They still seem to have a belief that we control American thinking and have undue influence in Washington. They blame us for a lot. Which to me is odd, they overstate our importance and influence. This generally does not extend into the general population which just want to get on with their lives preferably without being conscripted as meat for the Russian war machine.
What I believe we are seeing, and I've heard this from a few commentators and historians is the break up of an Empire. Not the USSR but the Russian Empire. Communism and the creation of the USSR delayed the break up. Then WW2 shored up the Soviets with massive material aid and then the acquisition of German technology with the conquest of Eastern Europe. With the end of the USSR what remained (with Eastern Europe now free from the Soviet boot) was the remnants of the Russian Empire first as the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) now calling itself the "Russian Federation". The problem is that Russia still treats the other members of the Federation as vassal states. Wealth is largely concentrated in Russia and specifically in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Native Russians are less likely to be conscripted.
In short I think after this war ends we will see a diminished Russia trying to hold on to what remains of its sphere of influence with a succession of dirty little wars.
What I believe we are seeing, and I've heard this from a few commentators and historians is the break up of an Empire. Not the USSR but the Russian Empire. Communism and the creation of the USSR delayed the break up. Then WW2 shored up the Soviets with massive material aid and then the acquisition of German technology with the conquest of Eastern Europe. With the end of the USSR what remained (with Eastern Europe now free from the Soviet boot) was the remnants of the Russian Empire first as the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) now calling itself the "Russian Federation". The problem is that Russia still treats the other members of the Federation as vassal states. Wealth is largely concentrated in Russia and specifically in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Native Russians are less likely to be conscripted.
In short I think after this war ends we will see a diminished Russia trying to hold on to what remains of its sphere of influence with a succession of dirty little wars.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
thanks for that. I found that a very interesting read and has given me a urge to delve deeper into this and the history of it.
On ketchup and music festival toilets
"The Miracles of Verbove and Ocheretuvate have now been explained.
Several large Russian units refused to into those places to fight.
Some have put up videos of the reasons for it citing lack of leadership (no highranking officers), lack of ammunition and artillery support, lack of pay, lack of food...
I am more surprised that the Russian army has taken this for so long.
Yes, it has become more acute lately, but not getting paid and fed is sort of a dealbreaker for normal armies, but I guess Russians truly expect to be treated badly.
Yesterday I saw a video of a Russian POV being questioned.
It was hard to watch.
He had tried to commit suicide with a handgrenade to not get taken as a POV.
The Ukrainian soldiers had saved him from doing that, treated his wounds, and taken him out giving him water, cigarettes and tea.
He bawled his eyes out, the reason was that he had been treated well.
You could really feel that he could not take kindness since nobody had ever been kind to him before.
Russian army is truly a hellhole.
Ocheretuvate and Verbove
There is now video evidence of Ukraine being firmly ensconced on the other side of the Surovikin Line at Both places.
Ukraine is not taking Ocheretuvate straight on to save lives, instead they are indeed encircling it, transfering control to infantry, and setting up to rush onwards.
Here several main arteries for the frontline have been cut, and will undermine the remainder of the frontline and the Surovikin Lines.
Ocheretuvate opens roads towards Tokmak and Berdyansk.
Verbove is not a road hub, but it is still important since it gives Ukraine the opportunity to move rapidly towards Mariupol.
Here the Ukrainians are blasting out message over radio to the "striking" units that they will be treated well and given food and cigarettes if they call in for surrender instructions.
Killrate
The Russian losses dropped fast, this is not a reporting error, that is due to the units that are not fighting.
It is also believed that it will be this low during days when Ukraine is mainly pushing through the empty hinterland towards Berdyansk and Mariupol.
The interesting part will come when Ukraine arrive there.
Will Russia try to hold those cities?
Surovikin
Several Russian officers at captain and major level have openly stated that it was impossible to hold the Surovikin Line without the actual General Surovikin.
They have also stated that no orders was given to emplace mines on the main line, even though the mines was stored in the line-trenches.
The reason for not prepositioning mines is that it would make it impossible to fall back, and falling back was the main point of the Surovikin Line according to General Surovikin.
Goodwill
It is by now fairly certain that Russia will soon Goodwill Gesture Zhaporizhzhia and Kherson.
There are already some signs of that in the rear of Kherson.
Taganrog
The Missile that struck Taganrog did hit the intended target.
Expect people to go "where did General X go" in a couple of days.
We do think there was another lower ranked general there too.
The reason that the general(s) was there is that there are no Russian generals left in occupied Ukraine outside of Crimea.
Everyone else is sitting inside Russian territory now waiting for something to come out of the blue sky to yeet them out of existence.
Heinz Tomato Ketchup
"First there is nothing, then your fries are drenched".
None professionals do not really appreciate the Heinz-effet in warfare.
It is partially I think due to movies.
In movies they never cover the weeks, months, or even years it takes to prepare and set up for winning a battle.
The slow grind to weaken the enemy positions and defences, churning up the enemy reserves, etcetera.
This is the "hit the bottom of the bottle stage" for a new glass Heinz Ketchup bottle.
People instead just see the rapid breakthrough and the mad rush into the sunset.
This is when your fries become drenched under oodles of red stuff.
The drenching can't happen unless you have pounded the bottom until the palm of your hand is sore.
As the kechup gushes forth the battle is pretty much over already, because your enemy has lost the ability to defend itself.
We saw this in Kharkiv-Luhansk last year where the Ukrainian defence of Kharkiv had drained so much resources that all of a sudden a large portion of the Ukrainian army could just run like heck through the hole.
I asked, the Luhansk offensive was never planned really, it was just an opportunity seized.
I will give Syrskiy that he was at least fast in replanning things as the opportunity came, but he never strived for it according to Zaluzhnyy (I asked Valeryy).
We definitely saw it in the planned form at Northern Kherson.
Months of slow grind, and then there was Ketchup all over the map.
The gnarly part is the pounding stage, that is where you will win or lose a battle on the offensive.
This is were the pro's sit and pour over figures of artillery pieces destroyed, AD-units hit, small hills taken, etcetera.
And, most importantly, who is doing what to whoms logistic supply lines.
Where Russia Lost
During the entirety of the war Russia has not gone for the Ukrainian supply lines in a concentrated effort.
Yes, they have hit logistics hubs and some lines piecemeal, but there never was a cohesive effort to take them out.
Leaving bridges, rail-lines and hubs undisturbed in Western Ukraine was a direct failure of understanding warfare that no higher officer should ever make.
In war this is the principle goal, to starve the enemy over time.
Russia definitely had the resources to do this with their huge store of missiles at the beginning of the war.
If it had been done the Ukrainian Air Defence that was delivered early on would have been thinned out, weapons deliveries thinned out, etcetera.
Instead Russia concentrated on killing civilians, blowing up public toilets (there has been a surprising amount of them blown up), and bombarding the electricity system.
Even now they are not doing it.
Long before the war I met Russian officers, they are not idiots.
Obviously they know this, heck I can even recite at what pages in their doctrinal manuals they are told about the importance of doing it.
And as far as I know Russian high-ranking officers are able to read, and have been required to read those doctrinal manuals.
This leads me to the conclusion that the entire war have been led from top down by people who are decidedly not generals, and that do not take the advice of the generals in regards of how to run the war.
Here it is good to note that neither Putin, nor Shoigu have any military training.
None. Not even the back then mandatory soldiers training in the Soviet Army.
The old adage "Laymen discuss weapons and battles, professionals discuss logistics and latrins" has never been more true.
Since you now wonder, I have no less than 12 different manuals on latrines at home, both ours and several from NATO, and the Soviet manual.
Anyone who has ever been to a large music festival and slept in a tent should understand the importance of field latrines.
War is the anal attention to boring details.
Something that Russia entirely forgot.
Will Russia ever learn?
We will see!"
"The Miracles of Verbove and Ocheretuvate have now been explained.
Several large Russian units refused to into those places to fight.
Some have put up videos of the reasons for it citing lack of leadership (no highranking officers), lack of ammunition and artillery support, lack of pay, lack of food...
I am more surprised that the Russian army has taken this for so long.
Yes, it has become more acute lately, but not getting paid and fed is sort of a dealbreaker for normal armies, but I guess Russians truly expect to be treated badly.
Yesterday I saw a video of a Russian POV being questioned.
It was hard to watch.
He had tried to commit suicide with a handgrenade to not get taken as a POV.
The Ukrainian soldiers had saved him from doing that, treated his wounds, and taken him out giving him water, cigarettes and tea.
He bawled his eyes out, the reason was that he had been treated well.
You could really feel that he could not take kindness since nobody had ever been kind to him before.
Russian army is truly a hellhole.
Ocheretuvate and Verbove
There is now video evidence of Ukraine being firmly ensconced on the other side of the Surovikin Line at Both places.
Ukraine is not taking Ocheretuvate straight on to save lives, instead they are indeed encircling it, transfering control to infantry, and setting up to rush onwards.
Here several main arteries for the frontline have been cut, and will undermine the remainder of the frontline and the Surovikin Lines.
Ocheretuvate opens roads towards Tokmak and Berdyansk.
Verbove is not a road hub, but it is still important since it gives Ukraine the opportunity to move rapidly towards Mariupol.
Here the Ukrainians are blasting out message over radio to the "striking" units that they will be treated well and given food and cigarettes if they call in for surrender instructions.
Killrate
The Russian losses dropped fast, this is not a reporting error, that is due to the units that are not fighting.
It is also believed that it will be this low during days when Ukraine is mainly pushing through the empty hinterland towards Berdyansk and Mariupol.
The interesting part will come when Ukraine arrive there.
Will Russia try to hold those cities?
Surovikin
Several Russian officers at captain and major level have openly stated that it was impossible to hold the Surovikin Line without the actual General Surovikin.
They have also stated that no orders was given to emplace mines on the main line, even though the mines was stored in the line-trenches.
The reason for not prepositioning mines is that it would make it impossible to fall back, and falling back was the main point of the Surovikin Line according to General Surovikin.
Goodwill
It is by now fairly certain that Russia will soon Goodwill Gesture Zhaporizhzhia and Kherson.
There are already some signs of that in the rear of Kherson.
Taganrog
The Missile that struck Taganrog did hit the intended target.
Expect people to go "where did General X go" in a couple of days.
We do think there was another lower ranked general there too.
The reason that the general(s) was there is that there are no Russian generals left in occupied Ukraine outside of Crimea.
Everyone else is sitting inside Russian territory now waiting for something to come out of the blue sky to yeet them out of existence.
Heinz Tomato Ketchup
"First there is nothing, then your fries are drenched".
None professionals do not really appreciate the Heinz-effet in warfare.
It is partially I think due to movies.
In movies they never cover the weeks, months, or even years it takes to prepare and set up for winning a battle.
The slow grind to weaken the enemy positions and defences, churning up the enemy reserves, etcetera.
This is the "hit the bottom of the bottle stage" for a new glass Heinz Ketchup bottle.
People instead just see the rapid breakthrough and the mad rush into the sunset.
This is when your fries become drenched under oodles of red stuff.
The drenching can't happen unless you have pounded the bottom until the palm of your hand is sore.
As the kechup gushes forth the battle is pretty much over already, because your enemy has lost the ability to defend itself.
We saw this in Kharkiv-Luhansk last year where the Ukrainian defence of Kharkiv had drained so much resources that all of a sudden a large portion of the Ukrainian army could just run like heck through the hole.
I asked, the Luhansk offensive was never planned really, it was just an opportunity seized.
I will give Syrskiy that he was at least fast in replanning things as the opportunity came, but he never strived for it according to Zaluzhnyy (I asked Valeryy).
We definitely saw it in the planned form at Northern Kherson.
Months of slow grind, and then there was Ketchup all over the map.
The gnarly part is the pounding stage, that is where you will win or lose a battle on the offensive.
This is were the pro's sit and pour over figures of artillery pieces destroyed, AD-units hit, small hills taken, etcetera.
And, most importantly, who is doing what to whoms logistic supply lines.
Where Russia Lost
During the entirety of the war Russia has not gone for the Ukrainian supply lines in a concentrated effort.
Yes, they have hit logistics hubs and some lines piecemeal, but there never was a cohesive effort to take them out.
Leaving bridges, rail-lines and hubs undisturbed in Western Ukraine was a direct failure of understanding warfare that no higher officer should ever make.
In war this is the principle goal, to starve the enemy over time.
Russia definitely had the resources to do this with their huge store of missiles at the beginning of the war.
If it had been done the Ukrainian Air Defence that was delivered early on would have been thinned out, weapons deliveries thinned out, etcetera.
Instead Russia concentrated on killing civilians, blowing up public toilets (there has been a surprising amount of them blown up), and bombarding the electricity system.
Even now they are not doing it.
Long before the war I met Russian officers, they are not idiots.
Obviously they know this, heck I can even recite at what pages in their doctrinal manuals they are told about the importance of doing it.
And as far as I know Russian high-ranking officers are able to read, and have been required to read those doctrinal manuals.
This leads me to the conclusion that the entire war have been led from top down by people who are decidedly not generals, and that do not take the advice of the generals in regards of how to run the war.
Here it is good to note that neither Putin, nor Shoigu have any military training.
None. Not even the back then mandatory soldiers training in the Soviet Army.
The old adage "Laymen discuss weapons and battles, professionals discuss logistics and latrins" has never been more true.
Since you now wonder, I have no less than 12 different manuals on latrines at home, both ours and several from NATO, and the Soviet manual.
Anyone who has ever been to a large music festival and slept in a tent should understand the importance of field latrines.
War is the anal attention to boring details.
Something that Russia entirely forgot.
Will Russia ever learn?
We will see!"