The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Yeh, I have been checking every half hour to see if there is any news but I didnt want to post and have everybody thinking there had been an update 
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
From what I can see it is fairly quiet from the Ukrainian side which usually means a large offensive or something major is happening and OPSEC is in place.
On the app formerly known as Twitter the #russiaiscollapsing is trending and talk of another rebellion imminent.
This is all just hearsay and my opinion but I have a feeling something major is happening at the minute.
On the app formerly known as Twitter the #russiaiscollapsing is trending and talk of another rebellion imminent.
This is all just hearsay and my opinion but I have a feeling something major is happening at the minute.
Decent_Left
Well-known member
This guy posts a daily sit rep thread with osint maps in a way less flamboyant style but more pictures than Borolads mate
Update as requested ...
"It is remarkable how soon a very weird situations transforms into some sort of familiarity.
My little dreary cubicle has sprouted a floormat, a magnetic candle holder, a comfy chair to read in, a reading lamp, and some other brickabrack such as a painting on a couple magnetic hangers.
I have also spent my day trying to sort out a contractor that could at short notice go and try to save my garden.
During my absence rabbits and other animals have wrecked it and one of my neighbours sent an email and told me about it.
We are having a rabbit year, so they are eating everything edible from ground up to around 50cm height.
Perfect for molesting my poor garden.
I have also started to sort out a minor medical problem I suffer from.
Nothing worse than the wear and tear if you are trying to keep up with fit elite soldiers, but you began as a slightly podgy unfit 50-year old.
So, I found a "physical therapist", something that slavic states have a lot of, but there are none in Sweden.
It is like you roll up a massage therapist, naprapat, chiropractor and physical therapist into one.
And unlike in the west they actually have to study at colledge to become one.
Much better than what is in the west.
So, I found a surly example that told me succinctly that I was "you ****ed up", and via translator I got to know that all my muscles are shortened and contracted, same with my tendons.
No ****, I had compacted two inches due to lugging around my gear all day.
So, for an hour each day I am being stretched out in a very painful process.
But, oh boy has it done a difference on my poor old aching body, I have already after 3 sessions regained an inch...
I wish I had one of these around in Sweden when I get back home, whenever now that may be.
Anyway, enough with my domestic frontline problems and let us go over to the Frontline etcetera.
Frontline
The surprising part is how little real news there are.
We have definitely reached the stage where the side with the thickest forehead will come out on the other side.
But, since Ukraine is getting constant replenishments, and Russia will not to any great extent, the outcome is fairly certain in the end.
I will though do a bit of clockwise round of the frontline.
Moscow
The Bóbr Fett drone, aka Beaver, is doing a lot to the general well being of the citizens of Moscow.
Seeing something burning there on a daily basis is truly good for the moral.
This in combination with the new attempt to Mobikify Russians have rekindled the trend of burning down military recruitment offices. About a dozen a day are set ablase in this new national Russian pastime.
The record was set by an 84 year old man who calmly walked into an open recruitment office with a blazing molotov cocktail that he chucked.
He was rapidly arrested, but it says quite something, he did it in a desperate attempt to save his grandson.
I wish more old coots would protest like that, it is after all not like I feel any joy in dispatching their grandsons.
Northern Russian Border
Russia has started to give old Mosin-Nagants to the female border guards in an attempt to stop the frequent border incursions.
Without training and with 120 year old rifles with very little ammunition they are supposed to stop well trained and well equiped soldiers from the Free Russia Movement.
I seriously believe it would have been more of a problem if they had instead made a dating app between the Russian border guards and the FRM.
Luhanskian Nipples
Seeing how easy it was to push in the nipples Ukraine expanded the concept and have started to push into the... (here it is probably best to stop the analogies).
This has led Ukraine to gain back a bit of ground that was lost during the Russian Winter Offensive.
It still remains to see if the Ukrainians will continue to push offensively here towards the spleen (oops).
Bakhmut
The only thing interesting going on here right now is artillery duels, and I am honestly to bored with those from my own neck of the woods to be **** bothered to write about it.
Suffice it to say that Ukraine is blowing things up, and that when they start to run out of things they will start to push again.
Vuhledar
Here there are som news.
Ukraine pushed forward and took a bit that Russia had taken during the Winter Offensive.
Here it is fairly certain that Ukraine will continue to push in the next few weeks to set up for an advance route towards Mariupol.
After a few fast gains at the beginning the Ukrainians have been suspiciously lazy here, but it now seems like they are starting to push forward again, broadening their initial gains.
Also, here Russia have been mysteriously inactive except for a bit of artillery dueling.
Zhaporizhzhia
Here Ukraine are doing things, but the news have been put under a big black felt for the moment.
I do know what they are doing, but I will not tell anything until news are made available.
But even then it will not be that interesting for most lay people.
I will though try to explain it in an interesting fashion using country music and analogies involving liberal amounts of dolphin lube.
The Castle
Yesterday the Russians placed a howitzer behind one of the "spires" of the castle so that we could not see it, that bought them a few minutes to lob shells nearby to where have an observation post, it was moderately interesting having them drop down nearby.
Thankfully the Russians decided that it was a good idead to continue without moving it.
A little drone spotting later and a lobbed excalibur later and it became the Norwegian Blue equivalent of an artillery piece.
I fully expect to get a rather testy complaint from IAEA in a few days about it.
Somehow, against all evidence, they seem to think that we will miss one day.
But, even if we missed by a few meters a few hundred tungsten carbide balls will not penetrate anything important.
Kherson/Crimea
The cutting of the supply lines continue unabated, and soon the logistics network will be beyond repair, Kersh Bridge or not.
There is a lot of speculation both in the west how things are blowing up.
The guesses are that Ukraine are using drones, or S-242 missiles that are repurposed, or using Hrim-2s...
The obvious answer is that they are using all of that, plus Storm Shadows launched at sea from planes, plus a few other things that may, or may not, be my fault.
Suffice it to say that now Ukraine is disabling more logistic routes and bases than Russia can rebuild.
Do not expect Russia to be able to improve their logistics in the near future.
Black Sea
Taking and holding Snake Island have given a lot of benefits to Ukraine.
From that unsinkable ship in the Black Sea they are able to deny Russia the ability to attack ships via fighter jets due to the Air Defence system on the Island.
Now they have started to launch Sea Drones against ships, something that successfully drove away two Admiral Gorshkov Missile Frigates enroute to stop a Israelian grain ship.
Ukraine even managed to hit one of the Gorshkovs killing at least one sailor and injuring 5 more.
The ship has now linked into Sevastopol for emergency repairs, and seem to have been ordered to sail back into Russia for yard repairs.
It seems to be the Admiral Kasatonov that was hit, it is the newest of the bunch that is in service in the Black Sea Fleet.
I do not think that any surface vessel will enter that part of the Black Sea again.
But what I do expect is that Russia will increase their attacks on the snake Island.
It is, and has always been, an arms race.
I honestly do not know how well they are along installing AD units on the island, so I am not sure it is defended well enough.
I do though suspect that they have dug in extremely well into the bed rock of the island, given enough time it will probably resemble The Rock at Gibraltar.
P-800 Oniks
Much is made by the Punditarians about Ukraine not having shot down a single Oniks missile.
They are using a lot of oxygen about how it is impossible to intercept due to the sea skiming ability of the cruise missile.
Let us sort this one out shall we.
Russia had mainly used their Shaheeds for months on end against Odessa.
This had led Ukraine to adjust their air defence so that they had mainly good equipment for taking those down, and not so much to take down a somewhat modern fast antiship cruise missile.
Yes, since they are sea skiming you do not get a lot of time to fire, and due to them being fired across the sea there is a decided lack of radar systems giving advance warnings.
But, the main problem was lack of a modern western air defence system in Odesa.
If you do not have enough stuff you make adjustments all the time to the placements to counter new threats, and this was one of those adjustments that was needed, that took some time to fix.
In the end it took until the delivery of an entirely new IRIS-T system, so Russia got pretty much two full weeks of free shooting gallery.
As soon as the IRIS-T was in place Russia stopped using them, and turned towards other port cities.
That port near to Romania will soon get an Air Defence System of its own, and that should sort of be that.
So, this is why Russia got 20/20 success with the Oniks.
More AD is the answer, and more flights with radar spy planes.
Will Odesa be hit again?
Yes, but far fewer missiles will now get through.
A city that size really require two entire systems.
Africa
We are now yet another day closer to WWIII.
The EU is now debating putting together a coalliton of the willing to go and aid the ECOWAS.
At the same time the US is pulling out completely from their little base that they had.
It is not expected that the US will participate, instead we expect the US to permanently leave Africa again, like they did after the Mogadishu cockup.
I do think that Sudan will stay out of this, but in the end Congo will get involved, Congo is such a lovely place in that it always somehow ends up in every African conflict.
Central African Republic might also get dragged in.
Both of them are very supportive of anything remotely looking like a Russian, that is good to remember.
Uganda is also a country going downhill, so there is a chance for that to get involved to, but less so.
Another one that I truly worry about is if South Africa would involve themselves.
They are staunchly pro-Russian, at least the leadership.
The Great African War have been long in the making, but I am not surprised that it might start.
If it kicks off now it will probably end up being one of the bloodiest, if not the bloodiest, conflicts in human history.
I do not think I can even convey how bad it would be, and I might be the one that has the best inkling about it.
Expect child soldiers, mass-rapes, massacres, genocides, and it all going on for up towards a decade, and that is at its best.
The prospect truly terrifies me, it will make Ukraine look like a walk in the park.
Beyond the potential of up towards 40 million dying, it would in the end displace up to 100 million people.
At the same time, ECOWAS can't not do it.
Not going to war would put all of those countries at peril of succumbing to Wagner and Prigozhin (ultimately Russia).
Having Russia turning Africa into a slave state headed by Prigozhin is a nightmare best not contemplated since it would lead to far worse deathtoll and displacements than going to war now.
On top of that you will have famine like never seen before as people are unable to farm.
This will affect the entire globe, Africa is against what people believe a huge net exporter of food.
I will be honest.
I am terrified about all this, I have seen a big African war and I truly hoped to never see another.
US/EU
It is also scary to see that the US is slowly abdicating from its role as a Superpower at this point in time.
Yes Ukraine is getting support, but it is not enough.
Nor is it given without conditions of how to be used.
There is also quite a bit of feet dragging from the White House in regards of the more powerful weapons systems like cruise missiles, long range weaponry, tanks, and airplanes.
Not that the US has given none of this to Ukraine.
Nope, silch, denada.
And when Europe want to give that to Ukraine the US is stonewalling it.
Any US system is stopped at the gate, that is why the only longrange weaponry to date has been European developped and built systems like the Leopards, Stormshadows, RBS15 variants, etcetera.
And the F-16 saga is still ongoing with the US dragging its feet with even allowing to hand over training manuals for the darn things.
This is now openly discussed in Brussels.
Obviously Bidens declining mental faculties play into this, but also the nagging suspicion that Jake Sullivan is not a friend of either Ukraine, nor Europe, due to "reasons", is also weighed in.
Obviously Europe can wait for the next election, but as it seems now we will either get a traitorous crook or someone senile as a President...
The answer is obvious in the end.
The peace project that is the European Union will have to unwillingly transform into a major military power and weapons producer.
This process is obviously already ongoing, but it will need to increase quite a lot in the coming months and years.
Because in the end, as thing stands now, we will have to device how to tackle arming Ukraine enough, and at the same time deal with an enormous war in Africa.
And somehow I bet that the US is expecting us to participate in the war with China that will follow due to the US showing so gosh darn much weakness.
Phew... nice to get that off my chest.
Anyway, on Monday We will see!"
"It is remarkable how soon a very weird situations transforms into some sort of familiarity.
My little dreary cubicle has sprouted a floormat, a magnetic candle holder, a comfy chair to read in, a reading lamp, and some other brickabrack such as a painting on a couple magnetic hangers.
I have also spent my day trying to sort out a contractor that could at short notice go and try to save my garden.
During my absence rabbits and other animals have wrecked it and one of my neighbours sent an email and told me about it.
We are having a rabbit year, so they are eating everything edible from ground up to around 50cm height.
Perfect for molesting my poor garden.
I have also started to sort out a minor medical problem I suffer from.
Nothing worse than the wear and tear if you are trying to keep up with fit elite soldiers, but you began as a slightly podgy unfit 50-year old.
So, I found a "physical therapist", something that slavic states have a lot of, but there are none in Sweden.
It is like you roll up a massage therapist, naprapat, chiropractor and physical therapist into one.
And unlike in the west they actually have to study at colledge to become one.
Much better than what is in the west.
So, I found a surly example that told me succinctly that I was "you ****ed up", and via translator I got to know that all my muscles are shortened and contracted, same with my tendons.
No ****, I had compacted two inches due to lugging around my gear all day.
So, for an hour each day I am being stretched out in a very painful process.
But, oh boy has it done a difference on my poor old aching body, I have already after 3 sessions regained an inch...
I wish I had one of these around in Sweden when I get back home, whenever now that may be.
Anyway, enough with my domestic frontline problems and let us go over to the Frontline etcetera.
Frontline
The surprising part is how little real news there are.
We have definitely reached the stage where the side with the thickest forehead will come out on the other side.
But, since Ukraine is getting constant replenishments, and Russia will not to any great extent, the outcome is fairly certain in the end.
I will though do a bit of clockwise round of the frontline.
Moscow
The Bóbr Fett drone, aka Beaver, is doing a lot to the general well being of the citizens of Moscow.
Seeing something burning there on a daily basis is truly good for the moral.
This in combination with the new attempt to Mobikify Russians have rekindled the trend of burning down military recruitment offices. About a dozen a day are set ablase in this new national Russian pastime.
The record was set by an 84 year old man who calmly walked into an open recruitment office with a blazing molotov cocktail that he chucked.
He was rapidly arrested, but it says quite something, he did it in a desperate attempt to save his grandson.
I wish more old coots would protest like that, it is after all not like I feel any joy in dispatching their grandsons.
Northern Russian Border
Russia has started to give old Mosin-Nagants to the female border guards in an attempt to stop the frequent border incursions.
Without training and with 120 year old rifles with very little ammunition they are supposed to stop well trained and well equiped soldiers from the Free Russia Movement.
I seriously believe it would have been more of a problem if they had instead made a dating app between the Russian border guards and the FRM.
Luhanskian Nipples
Seeing how easy it was to push in the nipples Ukraine expanded the concept and have started to push into the... (here it is probably best to stop the analogies).
This has led Ukraine to gain back a bit of ground that was lost during the Russian Winter Offensive.
It still remains to see if the Ukrainians will continue to push offensively here towards the spleen (oops).
Bakhmut
The only thing interesting going on here right now is artillery duels, and I am honestly to bored with those from my own neck of the woods to be **** bothered to write about it.
Suffice it to say that Ukraine is blowing things up, and that when they start to run out of things they will start to push again.
Vuhledar
Here there are som news.
Ukraine pushed forward and took a bit that Russia had taken during the Winter Offensive.
Here it is fairly certain that Ukraine will continue to push in the next few weeks to set up for an advance route towards Mariupol.
After a few fast gains at the beginning the Ukrainians have been suspiciously lazy here, but it now seems like they are starting to push forward again, broadening their initial gains.
Also, here Russia have been mysteriously inactive except for a bit of artillery dueling.
Zhaporizhzhia
Here Ukraine are doing things, but the news have been put under a big black felt for the moment.
I do know what they are doing, but I will not tell anything until news are made available.
But even then it will not be that interesting for most lay people.
I will though try to explain it in an interesting fashion using country music and analogies involving liberal amounts of dolphin lube.
The Castle
Yesterday the Russians placed a howitzer behind one of the "spires" of the castle so that we could not see it, that bought them a few minutes to lob shells nearby to where have an observation post, it was moderately interesting having them drop down nearby.
Thankfully the Russians decided that it was a good idead to continue without moving it.
A little drone spotting later and a lobbed excalibur later and it became the Norwegian Blue equivalent of an artillery piece.
I fully expect to get a rather testy complaint from IAEA in a few days about it.
Somehow, against all evidence, they seem to think that we will miss one day.
But, even if we missed by a few meters a few hundred tungsten carbide balls will not penetrate anything important.
Kherson/Crimea
The cutting of the supply lines continue unabated, and soon the logistics network will be beyond repair, Kersh Bridge or not.
There is a lot of speculation both in the west how things are blowing up.
The guesses are that Ukraine are using drones, or S-242 missiles that are repurposed, or using Hrim-2s...
The obvious answer is that they are using all of that, plus Storm Shadows launched at sea from planes, plus a few other things that may, or may not, be my fault.
Suffice it to say that now Ukraine is disabling more logistic routes and bases than Russia can rebuild.
Do not expect Russia to be able to improve their logistics in the near future.
Black Sea
Taking and holding Snake Island have given a lot of benefits to Ukraine.
From that unsinkable ship in the Black Sea they are able to deny Russia the ability to attack ships via fighter jets due to the Air Defence system on the Island.
Now they have started to launch Sea Drones against ships, something that successfully drove away two Admiral Gorshkov Missile Frigates enroute to stop a Israelian grain ship.
Ukraine even managed to hit one of the Gorshkovs killing at least one sailor and injuring 5 more.
The ship has now linked into Sevastopol for emergency repairs, and seem to have been ordered to sail back into Russia for yard repairs.
It seems to be the Admiral Kasatonov that was hit, it is the newest of the bunch that is in service in the Black Sea Fleet.
I do not think that any surface vessel will enter that part of the Black Sea again.
But what I do expect is that Russia will increase their attacks on the snake Island.
It is, and has always been, an arms race.
I honestly do not know how well they are along installing AD units on the island, so I am not sure it is defended well enough.
I do though suspect that they have dug in extremely well into the bed rock of the island, given enough time it will probably resemble The Rock at Gibraltar.
P-800 Oniks
Much is made by the Punditarians about Ukraine not having shot down a single Oniks missile.
They are using a lot of oxygen about how it is impossible to intercept due to the sea skiming ability of the cruise missile.
Let us sort this one out shall we.
Russia had mainly used their Shaheeds for months on end against Odessa.
This had led Ukraine to adjust their air defence so that they had mainly good equipment for taking those down, and not so much to take down a somewhat modern fast antiship cruise missile.
Yes, since they are sea skiming you do not get a lot of time to fire, and due to them being fired across the sea there is a decided lack of radar systems giving advance warnings.
But, the main problem was lack of a modern western air defence system in Odesa.
If you do not have enough stuff you make adjustments all the time to the placements to counter new threats, and this was one of those adjustments that was needed, that took some time to fix.
In the end it took until the delivery of an entirely new IRIS-T system, so Russia got pretty much two full weeks of free shooting gallery.
As soon as the IRIS-T was in place Russia stopped using them, and turned towards other port cities.
That port near to Romania will soon get an Air Defence System of its own, and that should sort of be that.
So, this is why Russia got 20/20 success with the Oniks.
More AD is the answer, and more flights with radar spy planes.
Will Odesa be hit again?
Yes, but far fewer missiles will now get through.
A city that size really require two entire systems.
Africa
We are now yet another day closer to WWIII.
The EU is now debating putting together a coalliton of the willing to go and aid the ECOWAS.
At the same time the US is pulling out completely from their little base that they had.
It is not expected that the US will participate, instead we expect the US to permanently leave Africa again, like they did after the Mogadishu cockup.
I do think that Sudan will stay out of this, but in the end Congo will get involved, Congo is such a lovely place in that it always somehow ends up in every African conflict.
Central African Republic might also get dragged in.
Both of them are very supportive of anything remotely looking like a Russian, that is good to remember.
Uganda is also a country going downhill, so there is a chance for that to get involved to, but less so.
Another one that I truly worry about is if South Africa would involve themselves.
They are staunchly pro-Russian, at least the leadership.
The Great African War have been long in the making, but I am not surprised that it might start.
If it kicks off now it will probably end up being one of the bloodiest, if not the bloodiest, conflicts in human history.
I do not think I can even convey how bad it would be, and I might be the one that has the best inkling about it.
Expect child soldiers, mass-rapes, massacres, genocides, and it all going on for up towards a decade, and that is at its best.
The prospect truly terrifies me, it will make Ukraine look like a walk in the park.
Beyond the potential of up towards 40 million dying, it would in the end displace up to 100 million people.
At the same time, ECOWAS can't not do it.
Not going to war would put all of those countries at peril of succumbing to Wagner and Prigozhin (ultimately Russia).
Having Russia turning Africa into a slave state headed by Prigozhin is a nightmare best not contemplated since it would lead to far worse deathtoll and displacements than going to war now.
On top of that you will have famine like never seen before as people are unable to farm.
This will affect the entire globe, Africa is against what people believe a huge net exporter of food.
I will be honest.
I am terrified about all this, I have seen a big African war and I truly hoped to never see another.
US/EU
It is also scary to see that the US is slowly abdicating from its role as a Superpower at this point in time.
Yes Ukraine is getting support, but it is not enough.
Nor is it given without conditions of how to be used.
There is also quite a bit of feet dragging from the White House in regards of the more powerful weapons systems like cruise missiles, long range weaponry, tanks, and airplanes.
Not that the US has given none of this to Ukraine.
Nope, silch, denada.
And when Europe want to give that to Ukraine the US is stonewalling it.
Any US system is stopped at the gate, that is why the only longrange weaponry to date has been European developped and built systems like the Leopards, Stormshadows, RBS15 variants, etcetera.
And the F-16 saga is still ongoing with the US dragging its feet with even allowing to hand over training manuals for the darn things.
This is now openly discussed in Brussels.
Obviously Bidens declining mental faculties play into this, but also the nagging suspicion that Jake Sullivan is not a friend of either Ukraine, nor Europe, due to "reasons", is also weighed in.
Obviously Europe can wait for the next election, but as it seems now we will either get a traitorous crook or someone senile as a President...
The answer is obvious in the end.
The peace project that is the European Union will have to unwillingly transform into a major military power and weapons producer.
This process is obviously already ongoing, but it will need to increase quite a lot in the coming months and years.
Because in the end, as thing stands now, we will have to device how to tackle arming Ukraine enough, and at the same time deal with an enormous war in Africa.
And somehow I bet that the US is expecting us to participate in the war with China that will follow due to the US showing so gosh darn much weakness.
Phew... nice to get that off my chest.
Anyway, on Monday We will see!"
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
Another ship out of action
And more
"
During the night Ukraine performed relentless attacks on ports and ships in the Black Sea.
This was done to secure Ukrainian ports and grain shipments, and is an attempt to force Russia back into the grain deal.
We are still trying to understand how successful it was, and the full extent of the damages to Russian ships and port installations.
What we do know is that early in the morning the Ropucha Class Ultra Large Landing Ship Olenegorskiy Gornyak was towed into Novorossyisk Port south of Rostov.
It was listing heavily, and is reported to have settled at the bottom in the harbour.
Previously the other two in the Black Sea Tzezar Kunikov and Cherkassk was damaged at an attack in Berdyansk and are out of Commission, it is suspected that the latter two are being harvested for parts in attempt to bring one of them back.
But, since Ukraine is Borstjing them now and then that is not likely to happen.
Back to Olenegorskiy Gornyak, it was used lately to ferry Russian tourists back and forth to Crimea, it is currently not known if there was any tourists on board, or if any of them was hurt.
Another way to look at it is that Russia used civilians as human shields on their ships.
Since they are naval ships Ukraine did not commit a war crime by attacking them, regardless of them carrying civilians.
It is though a war crime to put civilians on a military ship in a war zone like the Russians did.
This is the second confirmed Russian ship to be damaged in the last 5 days, the other was robot frigate that was towed into Sevastopol.
It is to be expected that for the time being that Ukraine will continue to attack Russian ships in port, but especially if they venture out to sea.
This is classic denial of access, and I fully expect Russia to stop naval surface operations in the Black Sea.
This means that grain transports would be able to resume.
Submarines is not an option for Russia to use to curtail shipping, you just can't use a submarine to stop ships, you can only use them to blow ships up or to launch missiles against ports.
Later on I expect Ukraine to start concentrating on the submarines using drones and missiles on them while they are vulnerable in port.
This is quite possible to do since the Russian Air Defence systems have been proven to be quite lacklustre.
From a naval warfare history perspective this is quite hilarious, it will be the first time that a country basically lacking a navy wins a naval war.
Weekend Activities
Romania and Ukraine need to hash out their Air Defence Routines, and so far they are mostly butting heads.
So, Romania suggested having an outside arbiter, and since I am fairly on hand and have an Inkling about Air Defence (technically I am commanding an IRIS-T system) the Romanians suggested me.
The Ukrainians said OK to that, and it has been set up.
It was after it was all set up that the Ukrainians pointed out that I can be a complete **** and that I am quite filled with Opinions.
There is a running bet in Ukrainian high command how many minutes it will take before I call the generals on both sides idiots.
Oleksandr told me that he had bet 100 Hryvnia on 3 minutes.
It is not anything to serious, it is just that they seem incapable of coordinating their respective Air Defences along the river to protect the ports and loading stations.
If I am lucky I will have this bout of Idiosum Militaricus settled by evening and I can spend my 36 hours of leave in Odesa.
I have even wrangled down the amount of guards to two instead of five...
So, if I am truly lucky I will get to eat and drink in somewhat peace and quiet."
"
During the night Ukraine performed relentless attacks on ports and ships in the Black Sea.
This was done to secure Ukrainian ports and grain shipments, and is an attempt to force Russia back into the grain deal.
We are still trying to understand how successful it was, and the full extent of the damages to Russian ships and port installations.
What we do know is that early in the morning the Ropucha Class Ultra Large Landing Ship Olenegorskiy Gornyak was towed into Novorossyisk Port south of Rostov.
It was listing heavily, and is reported to have settled at the bottom in the harbour.
Previously the other two in the Black Sea Tzezar Kunikov and Cherkassk was damaged at an attack in Berdyansk and are out of Commission, it is suspected that the latter two are being harvested for parts in attempt to bring one of them back.
But, since Ukraine is Borstjing them now and then that is not likely to happen.
Back to Olenegorskiy Gornyak, it was used lately to ferry Russian tourists back and forth to Crimea, it is currently not known if there was any tourists on board, or if any of them was hurt.
Another way to look at it is that Russia used civilians as human shields on their ships.
Since they are naval ships Ukraine did not commit a war crime by attacking them, regardless of them carrying civilians.
It is though a war crime to put civilians on a military ship in a war zone like the Russians did.
This is the second confirmed Russian ship to be damaged in the last 5 days, the other was robot frigate that was towed into Sevastopol.
It is to be expected that for the time being that Ukraine will continue to attack Russian ships in port, but especially if they venture out to sea.
This is classic denial of access, and I fully expect Russia to stop naval surface operations in the Black Sea.
This means that grain transports would be able to resume.
Submarines is not an option for Russia to use to curtail shipping, you just can't use a submarine to stop ships, you can only use them to blow ships up or to launch missiles against ports.
Later on I expect Ukraine to start concentrating on the submarines using drones and missiles on them while they are vulnerable in port.
This is quite possible to do since the Russian Air Defence systems have been proven to be quite lacklustre.
From a naval warfare history perspective this is quite hilarious, it will be the first time that a country basically lacking a navy wins a naval war.
Weekend Activities
Romania and Ukraine need to hash out their Air Defence Routines, and so far they are mostly butting heads.
So, Romania suggested having an outside arbiter, and since I am fairly on hand and have an Inkling about Air Defence (technically I am commanding an IRIS-T system) the Romanians suggested me.
The Ukrainians said OK to that, and it has been set up.
It was after it was all set up that the Ukrainians pointed out that I can be a complete **** and that I am quite filled with Opinions.
There is a running bet in Ukrainian high command how many minutes it will take before I call the generals on both sides idiots.
Oleksandr told me that he had bet 100 Hryvnia on 3 minutes.
It is not anything to serious, it is just that they seem incapable of coordinating their respective Air Defences along the river to protect the ports and loading stations.
If I am lucky I will have this bout of Idiosum Militaricus settled by evening and I can spend my 36 hours of leave in Odesa.
I have even wrangled down the amount of guards to two instead of five...
So, if I am truly lucky I will get to eat and drink in somewhat peace and quiet."
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
It looks like they attempted hits on Russian Ports too, not just occupied ports. Novorossiysk was targetted
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
I thought now would be a good time to share a random picture of a puppy and a kitten(not my puppy or kitten).
The main reason is after reading Borolads latest posts we all need a reason to say awwwwww instead of AHHHHH!
Littlejimmy
Well-known member
So we're back at the Everything's ****ed stage again? Fantastic. Just when I'm thinking about giving up drinking again. 
Something less bleak for @Littlejimmy. Better add a bit of context for the first bit. Ukraine and Romania were doing a bad job of co-ordinating air defence et their river/sea border. Our man was given the job of sorting them out (he's used to commanding Iris Ts). The Ukrainians (who told the Romanians that our man is butt hole) started fielding bets about when he'd pee the Romanians off. The 204 cm is not him, he's big, but not that big. His personal guards.
"The mediation went well and was fairly rapid.
I guess that 204cm of looming ominousness had the intended effect.
In the end just shy of 3 hours and all the details was in place in regards of who will shot down what missile from what direction.
Reportedly Budanov won the bet after the Ukrainians interpreted "I do not suffer fools gladly" at the 14 minute mark as me calling everyone idiots.
The Ukrainians did at that point let the Romanians into the joke by telling them that I was quite famous for always telling anyone around exactly my opinion.
The Ukrainians does though take it in a better spirit compared to my own general.
It seems that being "opinionated" goes hand in hand with the "Zaliznyy Polkovnyk" moniker.
By now I am mostly just feeding the mytos.
I do though here have an observation, I have noted that Tank Girl has the same problem with her Ukrainian generals as I do with my Swedish generals.
I guess that a foreign colonel chewing you out is easier to take.
My commander seems to be most pleased with Slavinska, so I do think I am on to something here.
Anyway, I then absconded to Odesa, napped, had a couple of beers.
I was recommended a Kosher restaurant...
I am now almost dying from having eaten way to much brisket and other assorted goodies.
I also may have had a few small glasses of homemade cherry brandy.
Shipping news
The reports is that now the Russian side is at dockside, resting on the bottom almost completely on its side.
There are no reports yet about if there was tourists aboard, and if so how many was hurt or killed.
Russia is still sticking with the story that they intercepted all of the sea drones...
On the video from the drone it is evident that Russia never even noticed it since not a single shot was fired against the drone.
Awkward!
China
China is suffering from failed harvests, this combined with India banning export of food due also to failed harvests is putting an enormous pressure on the Chinese government to arrange food for its population.
This has led to the government declaring a food emergency in 7 regions of China, and to declare that food procurement is the topmost issue at hand.
To really b***r things for China the US crops are lower than usual, and the same goes for Europe.
Now, add to that the problems in Africa and you have the mother of a shitstorm coming globally.
Many will at this point ask what on Earth Africa has to do with it, aren't they supposed to starve?
No, not as a whole.
In fact, Africa is an enormous net producer and net exporter of food.
Any African starvation is always a combination of lack of logistics and lack of economy paired with coruption.
Let us just say that Russia starting a formenting a huge continent spanning war in Africa is not helping, and leave it at that for now.
So, China went to Russia to buy grains and pulses.
Problem is that Russia did not have a lot to spare, and what little they had over they had already sold to their African colonies.
China then went to Ukraine and asked to buy a huge chunk of their production estimated at 32 million tons this year.
Obviously Ukraine was quite happy to sell since the prices are high, and the chinese are very good at paying their bills compared to some African nations and the UN.
Money does indeed talk.
Then Russia left the grain deal, and the grain that Ukraine had in storage from last harvest was just enough to tide China over until the new harvest.
But, then Russia blew up the paid for Chinese grain in the silos in Izmir and Odesa.
And they also meticulously blew up the part of the port in Odesa that China had paid for as aid to Ukraine a few years ago, just to assure preferential treatment in case of a food crisis.
If China was not so impressed with Russia before after their fuckery, it is now safe to say that there are no longer any relations whatsoever.
Today China called up the Russian Ambassador and formally handed over a Note that in summary reads as China ordering Russia to immediately return to the grain deal "or else".
It was obviously nicer in its formulations, but the bottom line was "grain or else".
The Chinese government is currently on quite shaky grounds after the population almost revolted during the lockdown famine.
Also, having the economy totally stall out and median income dropping across the board is not making them popular, so risking a new famine is not even gonna happen in the minds of Xi, if someone is in the way between China and grain right now, he is probably more than willing to remove that hinderance.
The Peace Conference
One of the biggest signs that the "non-aligned" part of the world has had it with Russia is the attendance list of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmans Peace Conference on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia.
The topic is to discuss the Ukrainian Peace Plan, and to make a plan for how to make it happen.
Among the attendees are almost the entire middle east, many African nations, India, Brazil, and so on.
Attending is also some of the most influential Western countries, and obviously Ukraine.
Russia is not invited in any way sort or form.
Up until today China was invited, but had not intended to participate.
But, a few hours ago that changed as China officially declared that they are coming "at the highest level", and that they are now willing to support the Ukrainian Peace Plan.
This is costly for Xi, he had invested a lot of prestige in his own peace plan, but to not jinx anything Mohammad bin Salman immediately praised the wisdom of Xi making it sound like that the Ukrainian Peace Plan is based on his peace plan.
Russia just became very lonely, left with such super-states as Burkina Faso, Ghana, Iran, North Korea, Mali, Niger and Sudan.
One could actually make the case that it is the UN meeting outside of the UN to discuss Russia without Russia having veto power or membership.
The agenda is how to restore Ukraines borders, and security guarantees for Ukraine.
But, exactly what will come out of it is still unclear.
I am though ever so slightly hopeful that something good could come out of this in the end.
At least it is one heck of an attempt to restore dialogue about the rules based world order.
We will see!"
"The mediation went well and was fairly rapid.
I guess that 204cm of looming ominousness had the intended effect.
In the end just shy of 3 hours and all the details was in place in regards of who will shot down what missile from what direction.
Reportedly Budanov won the bet after the Ukrainians interpreted "I do not suffer fools gladly" at the 14 minute mark as me calling everyone idiots.
The Ukrainians did at that point let the Romanians into the joke by telling them that I was quite famous for always telling anyone around exactly my opinion.
The Ukrainians does though take it in a better spirit compared to my own general.
It seems that being "opinionated" goes hand in hand with the "Zaliznyy Polkovnyk" moniker.
By now I am mostly just feeding the mytos.
I do though here have an observation, I have noted that Tank Girl has the same problem with her Ukrainian generals as I do with my Swedish generals.
I guess that a foreign colonel chewing you out is easier to take.
My commander seems to be most pleased with Slavinska, so I do think I am on to something here.
Anyway, I then absconded to Odesa, napped, had a couple of beers.
I was recommended a Kosher restaurant...
I am now almost dying from having eaten way to much brisket and other assorted goodies.
I also may have had a few small glasses of homemade cherry brandy.
Shipping news
The reports is that now the Russian side is at dockside, resting on the bottom almost completely on its side.
There are no reports yet about if there was tourists aboard, and if so how many was hurt or killed.
Russia is still sticking with the story that they intercepted all of the sea drones...
On the video from the drone it is evident that Russia never even noticed it since not a single shot was fired against the drone.
Awkward!
China
China is suffering from failed harvests, this combined with India banning export of food due also to failed harvests is putting an enormous pressure on the Chinese government to arrange food for its population.
This has led to the government declaring a food emergency in 7 regions of China, and to declare that food procurement is the topmost issue at hand.
To really b***r things for China the US crops are lower than usual, and the same goes for Europe.
Now, add to that the problems in Africa and you have the mother of a shitstorm coming globally.
Many will at this point ask what on Earth Africa has to do with it, aren't they supposed to starve?
No, not as a whole.
In fact, Africa is an enormous net producer and net exporter of food.
Any African starvation is always a combination of lack of logistics and lack of economy paired with coruption.
Let us just say that Russia starting a formenting a huge continent spanning war in Africa is not helping, and leave it at that for now.
So, China went to Russia to buy grains and pulses.
Problem is that Russia did not have a lot to spare, and what little they had over they had already sold to their African colonies.
China then went to Ukraine and asked to buy a huge chunk of their production estimated at 32 million tons this year.
Obviously Ukraine was quite happy to sell since the prices are high, and the chinese are very good at paying their bills compared to some African nations and the UN.
Money does indeed talk.
Then Russia left the grain deal, and the grain that Ukraine had in storage from last harvest was just enough to tide China over until the new harvest.
But, then Russia blew up the paid for Chinese grain in the silos in Izmir and Odesa.
And they also meticulously blew up the part of the port in Odesa that China had paid for as aid to Ukraine a few years ago, just to assure preferential treatment in case of a food crisis.
If China was not so impressed with Russia before after their fuckery, it is now safe to say that there are no longer any relations whatsoever.
Today China called up the Russian Ambassador and formally handed over a Note that in summary reads as China ordering Russia to immediately return to the grain deal "or else".
It was obviously nicer in its formulations, but the bottom line was "grain or else".
The Chinese government is currently on quite shaky grounds after the population almost revolted during the lockdown famine.
Also, having the economy totally stall out and median income dropping across the board is not making them popular, so risking a new famine is not even gonna happen in the minds of Xi, if someone is in the way between China and grain right now, he is probably more than willing to remove that hinderance.
The Peace Conference
One of the biggest signs that the "non-aligned" part of the world has had it with Russia is the attendance list of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmans Peace Conference on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia.
The topic is to discuss the Ukrainian Peace Plan, and to make a plan for how to make it happen.
Among the attendees are almost the entire middle east, many African nations, India, Brazil, and so on.
Attending is also some of the most influential Western countries, and obviously Ukraine.
Russia is not invited in any way sort or form.
Up until today China was invited, but had not intended to participate.
But, a few hours ago that changed as China officially declared that they are coming "at the highest level", and that they are now willing to support the Ukrainian Peace Plan.
This is costly for Xi, he had invested a lot of prestige in his own peace plan, but to not jinx anything Mohammad bin Salman immediately praised the wisdom of Xi making it sound like that the Ukrainian Peace Plan is based on his peace plan.
Russia just became very lonely, left with such super-states as Burkina Faso, Ghana, Iran, North Korea, Mali, Niger and Sudan.
One could actually make the case that it is the UN meeting outside of the UN to discuss Russia without Russia having veto power or membership.
The agenda is how to restore Ukraines borders, and security guarantees for Ukraine.
But, exactly what will come out of it is still unclear.
I am though ever so slightly hopeful that something good could come out of this in the end.
At least it is one heck of an attempt to restore dialogue about the rules based world order.
We will see!"
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
johnmfc
Member
It was a sanctioned russian oil tanker, carrying fuel from Syria to Crimea, it was to resupply russian forces. A legitimate military target.
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
Sounds unusually hopeful with plenty of external pressure on Russia from China to end the war, the food supply issue could be more powerful than any missiles.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Nothing been reported about the illegal bridge, but the tanker confirmed. Media said traffic on the illegal bridge resumed Saturday morning after being temporarily closed - presumably due to proximity of the hit tanker
On ships and stuff
"Yesterday was quite a day, it is funny that as soon as I go on vacation because things are somewhat dull, all hell breaks loose and I get called every other minute.
Anyway, back to the ships at hand.
Yesterday I covered the Large Landing Ship that is now happily sitting at the bottom where it docked.
There is evidence that they are doing pumping operations, but it is not doing much, if the want to get it back afloat they will need to plug the hole first.
There is obvious signs of the bunker storage being pierced judging from all of the oil in the harbour waters seen on photos.
Obviously there are a lot of Sad Shoigu Noises emanating from Moscow due to this.
When Ukraine finally decides to cut the Kersh Bridge once and for all, those ships and a couple of rusty half defunct car ferries from pre-bridge times is all there is to furnish the Crimean forces with supplies.
Russia only had 3 on hand of these large ones.
One is holed up in Sevastopol damaged after an aerial drone attack is rapidly going nowhere, and this leaves them with only a single operating ship of this class.
Besides the logistics issues for Crimea yesterdays "sinking" also wreaks havoc upon Russia ability to perform naval landings.
Russia did not have the capacity to take anything from the sea, like an Odesa landing, but now they would be extremely hard pressed to even land troops on Snake Island.
The risk of losing their last large landing ship is just to high for that.
In reality it would be neigh impossible today to take Snake Island and hold it due to the Harpoons happily ensconced on the island.
As such this is almost as big a win as when the Moscow was sunk, perhaps even as big or bigger.
Hence the Sad Shoigu Noices.
Tanker Ship Sig
Before I start, let us clear up something important.
Yes, the ship is registered in the civilian Russian registry, but it is about as civilian as my ****.
It has always been under Russian MOD contract to haul jet fuel around Russia for the Air Force.
In 2019 it was put under international sanctions due to smuggling jet fuel to the Syrian Air Force.
Just remember this part when Russia later today start sprouting the "poor civilian ship" narrative.
The ship was hit with the same type of naval drone as the Large Landing Ship, hilariously enough the development of this naval drone was paid for in full by various NAFO initiatives.
Ukraine couldn't pay for the development, nor did the West grasp that it would be important, so NAFO stepped in after a request by Fella Reznikov (also known as the Defence Minister of Ukraine).
At ten million dollars in development cost it is probably the cheapest developped weapon in modern times compared to the amount of damage done.
Initially Russia reported that the ship was fine, but then an intercepted call was published where the captain talked to coast guard asking for assistance due to the engine room being flooded.
Then the sailors published photos of the ships interiors evidently being majorly fecked up.
And then came the picture above...
As it was struck the ship was sitting high in the water on ballast.
This means that the hit came far below the Plimsol-line (loading level mark), so as water flooded in the engine and command part dropped down, while the front of the ship remained buoyant.
This in turn put strain on the ships longitudinal strength (back), and in the end that was to much for the ship.
In other words, the ships back has broken.
Note how the stern or the ship is listing while the bow section is upright.
Also note that there is a point where the angle of the stern is different compared to the forward two thirds of the ship.
If you know your ship you rapidly understand that this is an ex-ship.
It will probably break apart in the end, but even if a miracle occurs and it does not, and Russia manages to tow it to port, there is nothing to do about the ship.
It will never be able to sail again unless it is dismantled in dry dock and the longitudinal spars are repaired and braced.
That would cost more than scrapping it and building a new ship.
Effect
Russia does not have a large amount of tankers.
Nor are they able to hire any from abroad.
What is less well known is that the first strike on the Kersh Bridge severed the Oil Pipeline to Crimea (and the water mains).
This means that Russia has to ship in all fuel oil.
They use different ships for that though.
The Sig shipped in all of the fuel for the Russian air force, it even had spare capacity to deliver jet fuel on each third trip to Turkey.
So, there was ever one in the Black Sea.
Now Russia will be forced to take a fuel oil ship out of circulation, deep clean the tanks from any sludge, and then use that as a stop gap emergency ship, diminishing the capacity to carry fuel oil to Crimea.
Obviously this was both a tactical short term gain, but even more a longterm strategic gain.
But in the end it will be the political gain that will be the greatest.
Why?
As Russia left the grain deal it threatened to sink the ships going to Ukraine if they did not comply with Russias highly illegal demands.
Russia believed that it could do so without any consequences, after all Russia has a navy and Ukraine does not (well, almost).
Ukraine taking out a naval ship and a tanker ship within 24 hours is therefore a huge PR-coup.
But, this is still not the biggest gain.
Russia has now discovered that the grain deal was beneficial for them.
Without the protection it gave them their vital shipping lifeline is at the mercy of Ukraine, and Ukraine has proven that it has the capacity to sink any ship anywhere in the Black Sea.
Sidenote, both ships was hit inside Russian Waters.
Here comes another thing into play, both ships was Russian registered and owned.
All Russian ships used in the war effort are registered and owned by Russia.
Ukraine on the other hand has almost no ships under their ownership or registry.
This creates a huge target disparity, well unless Russia decides to target ships from other nations, something that would go down very well across the globe...
Russia is now sitting at a zugzwang, will they continue without the grain deal and continue to lose Russian registerd logistics ships (the naval ones are targets regardless), or will they return to the grain deal and having their ships safeguarded again.
Both options would be a political loss.
(Zugzwang = Chess term where any move you make will create an even worse situation, it is the moment that you wish you did not have to move but move you must)
Returning would show to everyone the weakness of the Russian navy and its unability to protect the Russian shipping, and it would also show weakness of the leadership infront of an adversary.
Not returning would soon imply the loss of shipping in the Black Sea for Russia, with the same political end result.
Conclusion
I knew that the Russian navy had issues, but I never imagined that 18 months into the war it would have lost the control of the Black Sea to a non-navy nation.
And that the non-navy nation was on the brink of halting all naval operations of the Russian Navy.
Even more hilarious, the Russian Navy is even at peril of being sunk, and I mean every single ship in the Black Sea.
Question is now if Russia is willing to have their Black Sea Fleet sunk, or if they will pull the remnants out of the Black Sea?
Without the surface ships even the submarines would be an endangered species since they lack the ability to defend themselves against aerial attacks.
The next question is if Russia will return to the grain deal to save their "commercial" supply ships for the war effort.
While we are listening to the whimpering Sad Shoigu Noices from Moscow there is one thing we can be sure about.
And that is that whatever Russia has left in its stores of missiles will be launched against Ukrainian civilian targets, premierily against Odessa and Izmir I suspect.
More Sad Shoigu Noices
During the battle I partook in one of the CV9040s was abandoned by the crew as the track broke and the barrel mounting was hit.
The crew did though survive, and it was planned that the vehicle would be recovered.
Russia had other plans and for once managed to succeede with something and nabbed it.
This lead to a movie were Shoigu inspected it looking very scared at what he was seeing.
To all points and purposes he looked like he was seeing a UFO.
He was clearly contemplating that Ukraine had bought 1000 of them, and that we are gifting 200 of them on top of that (with training of the crews).
He looked like a man watching his own doom.
Anyway, in the film clip he picks up a can of Surströmming (Fermented Swedish Herring), something that we had much fun leaving in each CV90.
I hope he opens the can, then we would indeed get very Sad Shoigu Noices!
I was giggling like a maniac seeing the can with Shoigu looking like "what the fudge is this"...
"Yesterday was quite a day, it is funny that as soon as I go on vacation because things are somewhat dull, all hell breaks loose and I get called every other minute.
Anyway, back to the ships at hand.
Yesterday I covered the Large Landing Ship that is now happily sitting at the bottom where it docked.
There is evidence that they are doing pumping operations, but it is not doing much, if the want to get it back afloat they will need to plug the hole first.
There is obvious signs of the bunker storage being pierced judging from all of the oil in the harbour waters seen on photos.
Obviously there are a lot of Sad Shoigu Noises emanating from Moscow due to this.
When Ukraine finally decides to cut the Kersh Bridge once and for all, those ships and a couple of rusty half defunct car ferries from pre-bridge times is all there is to furnish the Crimean forces with supplies.
Russia only had 3 on hand of these large ones.
One is holed up in Sevastopol damaged after an aerial drone attack is rapidly going nowhere, and this leaves them with only a single operating ship of this class.
Besides the logistics issues for Crimea yesterdays "sinking" also wreaks havoc upon Russia ability to perform naval landings.
Russia did not have the capacity to take anything from the sea, like an Odesa landing, but now they would be extremely hard pressed to even land troops on Snake Island.
The risk of losing their last large landing ship is just to high for that.
In reality it would be neigh impossible today to take Snake Island and hold it due to the Harpoons happily ensconced on the island.
As such this is almost as big a win as when the Moscow was sunk, perhaps even as big or bigger.
Hence the Sad Shoigu Noices.
Tanker Ship Sig
Before I start, let us clear up something important.
Yes, the ship is registered in the civilian Russian registry, but it is about as civilian as my ****.
It has always been under Russian MOD contract to haul jet fuel around Russia for the Air Force.
In 2019 it was put under international sanctions due to smuggling jet fuel to the Syrian Air Force.
Just remember this part when Russia later today start sprouting the "poor civilian ship" narrative.
The ship was hit with the same type of naval drone as the Large Landing Ship, hilariously enough the development of this naval drone was paid for in full by various NAFO initiatives.
Ukraine couldn't pay for the development, nor did the West grasp that it would be important, so NAFO stepped in after a request by Fella Reznikov (also known as the Defence Minister of Ukraine).
At ten million dollars in development cost it is probably the cheapest developped weapon in modern times compared to the amount of damage done.
Initially Russia reported that the ship was fine, but then an intercepted call was published where the captain talked to coast guard asking for assistance due to the engine room being flooded.
Then the sailors published photos of the ships interiors evidently being majorly fecked up.
And then came the picture above...
As it was struck the ship was sitting high in the water on ballast.
This means that the hit came far below the Plimsol-line (loading level mark), so as water flooded in the engine and command part dropped down, while the front of the ship remained buoyant.
This in turn put strain on the ships longitudinal strength (back), and in the end that was to much for the ship.
In other words, the ships back has broken.
Note how the stern or the ship is listing while the bow section is upright.
Also note that there is a point where the angle of the stern is different compared to the forward two thirds of the ship.
If you know your ship you rapidly understand that this is an ex-ship.
It will probably break apart in the end, but even if a miracle occurs and it does not, and Russia manages to tow it to port, there is nothing to do about the ship.
It will never be able to sail again unless it is dismantled in dry dock and the longitudinal spars are repaired and braced.
That would cost more than scrapping it and building a new ship.
Effect
Russia does not have a large amount of tankers.
Nor are they able to hire any from abroad.
What is less well known is that the first strike on the Kersh Bridge severed the Oil Pipeline to Crimea (and the water mains).
This means that Russia has to ship in all fuel oil.
They use different ships for that though.
The Sig shipped in all of the fuel for the Russian air force, it even had spare capacity to deliver jet fuel on each third trip to Turkey.
So, there was ever one in the Black Sea.
Now Russia will be forced to take a fuel oil ship out of circulation, deep clean the tanks from any sludge, and then use that as a stop gap emergency ship, diminishing the capacity to carry fuel oil to Crimea.
Obviously this was both a tactical short term gain, but even more a longterm strategic gain.
But in the end it will be the political gain that will be the greatest.
Why?
As Russia left the grain deal it threatened to sink the ships going to Ukraine if they did not comply with Russias highly illegal demands.
Russia believed that it could do so without any consequences, after all Russia has a navy and Ukraine does not (well, almost).
Ukraine taking out a naval ship and a tanker ship within 24 hours is therefore a huge PR-coup.
But, this is still not the biggest gain.
Russia has now discovered that the grain deal was beneficial for them.
Without the protection it gave them their vital shipping lifeline is at the mercy of Ukraine, and Ukraine has proven that it has the capacity to sink any ship anywhere in the Black Sea.
Sidenote, both ships was hit inside Russian Waters.
Here comes another thing into play, both ships was Russian registered and owned.
All Russian ships used in the war effort are registered and owned by Russia.
Ukraine on the other hand has almost no ships under their ownership or registry.
This creates a huge target disparity, well unless Russia decides to target ships from other nations, something that would go down very well across the globe...
Russia is now sitting at a zugzwang, will they continue without the grain deal and continue to lose Russian registerd logistics ships (the naval ones are targets regardless), or will they return to the grain deal and having their ships safeguarded again.
Both options would be a political loss.
(Zugzwang = Chess term where any move you make will create an even worse situation, it is the moment that you wish you did not have to move but move you must)
Returning would show to everyone the weakness of the Russian navy and its unability to protect the Russian shipping, and it would also show weakness of the leadership infront of an adversary.
Not returning would soon imply the loss of shipping in the Black Sea for Russia, with the same political end result.
Conclusion
I knew that the Russian navy had issues, but I never imagined that 18 months into the war it would have lost the control of the Black Sea to a non-navy nation.
And that the non-navy nation was on the brink of halting all naval operations of the Russian Navy.
Even more hilarious, the Russian Navy is even at peril of being sunk, and I mean every single ship in the Black Sea.
Question is now if Russia is willing to have their Black Sea Fleet sunk, or if they will pull the remnants out of the Black Sea?
Without the surface ships even the submarines would be an endangered species since they lack the ability to defend themselves against aerial attacks.
The next question is if Russia will return to the grain deal to save their "commercial" supply ships for the war effort.
While we are listening to the whimpering Sad Shoigu Noices from Moscow there is one thing we can be sure about.
And that is that whatever Russia has left in its stores of missiles will be launched against Ukrainian civilian targets, premierily against Odessa and Izmir I suspect.
More Sad Shoigu Noices
During the battle I partook in one of the CV9040s was abandoned by the crew as the track broke and the barrel mounting was hit.
The crew did though survive, and it was planned that the vehicle would be recovered.
Russia had other plans and for once managed to succeede with something and nabbed it.
This lead to a movie were Shoigu inspected it looking very scared at what he was seeing.
To all points and purposes he looked like he was seeing a UFO.
He was clearly contemplating that Ukraine had bought 1000 of them, and that we are gifting 200 of them on top of that (with training of the crews).
He looked like a man watching his own doom.
Anyway, in the film clip he picks up a can of Surströmming (Fermented Swedish Herring), something that we had much fun leaving in each CV90.
I hope he opens the can, then we would indeed get very Sad Shoigu Noices!
I was giggling like a maniac seeing the can with Shoigu looking like "what the fudge is this"...
Once again great insight.
What may seem obvious after saying it is the ship ownership issue and how it fits with available targets and more important;y the Russian ability to refuel.
What, on the face of it to me, looked like a random 'publicity' target the tanker now turns out to be a very shrewd tactical move.
Fascinating and with these sea drones so innovative.
The Ukranians never cease to amaze.
What may seem obvious after saying it is the ship ownership issue and how it fits with available targets and more important;y the Russian ability to refuel.
What, on the face of it to me, looked like a random 'publicity' target the tanker now turns out to be a very shrewd tactical move.
Fascinating and with these sea drones so innovative.
The Ukranians never cease to amaze.