Every day is a school day for my mate during this conflict. I do hope this all ends soon. He's back at regiment HQ again, which means I probably won't hear much from him for a week. It's playing havoc with our other plans. Anyway, some interesting thoughts on the information we get and also about the changing face of warfare.
"That I have a low opinion about pundits is probably quite clear now.
But, pundits should not be confused with good and well intentioned journalists that are well versed in military matters.
There are quite a few of them that does fairly good reporting.
No, with Pundits I mean journalists far out of their depth, or even with malicious intent like the Washington Post.
Problem is the poor layperson who does not know what source to believe, journalists, pundits, or even the propagandists?
I think it is time that I write somewhat about it.
The Anatomy of Offensive
Let us begin with the best version of Blackadder.
Never before or after has the absurdity of war been better described from the perspective of frontline soldiers.
So, let us start off with the Offensive of the first world war.
It came in distinct stages, often in short order.
1. Setup, bringing in logistics and reinforcements. Ofter done in a week or two.
2. Preparation by Artillery (later on there was a bit of air bombardment to it). Between 12-24 hours.
3. Over the top and run over to take the enemy trench. Most often failed.
Rinse repeat.
During the second war and up to the second invasion of Iraq all wars followed this basic pattern.
1. Setup, readying forces at borders and in bases ready to go when the order is given. Also preparation of trailing logistics.
2. Artillery and aerial bombardment, both of the line and at depth.
3. Probing attacks to evaluate the enemy's strength and weapspots.
4. Breaching attack under artillery and aerial bombardment.
5. Expansion phase with armour under artillery and aerial bombardment until logistics trail is reaching exhaustion phase.
6. Consolidation.
Rinse repeat.
In the first case we are talking about advances of a maximum of a few hundred meters, if it even succeeded.
Larger battles lasted for many months, with little result and high mortality rate.
In the second case the mortality falls down, and the rate of intrusion could sometimes reach up to 150km in a single offensive "spasm".
The Russo-Ukrainian War started like the second world war with large combined arms blitzy offensives from both sides.
Russia dashed to Kyiv and grabbed a lot in the first week, but then stalled out as their logistics was pushed beyond its limit. And in Kyiv and northern Ukraine they even failed in the crucial Consolidation step.
Then Ukraine did the blitz-attack in Kharkiv and Western Luhansk, and followed it up with an even more classic WWII attack in Kherson.
Then we flipped all the way back to the Battle of Marne during WWI as we saw the meatgrinders being reborn behind heavily mined trenchlines.
Names like Bakhmut and Andrivka eached themselves into our minds as some of the blodiest battles in human history.
But, at the same time we saw something else happening to the south in Vuhledar.
Instead of grinding against trenchlines the Ukraines only mined the place, and instead used rapid counter-attacks to crush the advanving Russians in combination with artillery and aerial bombardment.
It was like Ukraine was testing something different here.
In fact, so did Russia, instead of meat waves they tried rapid combined arms attacks involving artillery, armour, infantry and aerial bombardments.
For a layperson this was just yet another battle, but for the professional it was apparent after a while that this was a school for both sides as they tried to develop tactics for the spring/summer/fall offensives to come.
And, Ukraine came out on top both during the battle, and in the learning curve.
Ukrainian Offensive
Ukraine lack enough artillery to win the battle outright, so they have to use precise targeting data, they also lack the capacity to bomb the enemy into oblivion from airplanes.
And, at so many other times war is the mother of invention.
Ukraine took the fairly new technology of drones and rapidly ran past anyone in how to use them.
I swear that if it can be done with a drone, a Ukrainian will do it with a drone.
They use it for artillery spotting, bombarding, deliveries, command observation... even guiding troops in trench storming while dropping grenades around corners.
When the war started the west was a decade ahead of Ukraine and Russia, but now we are more than a decade behind Ukraine.
Almost a year ago I helped train Ukrainians in modern armour warfare, now I am spending my days begging the same battalion to promise to send their drone operators to us after the war to teach us.
This has obviously changed war, last time we truly got a new type of weapon to play around with was 80 years ago.
Heck, we have already incorporated slaved drones into our CV90s due to Ukraine...
We have to run now to catch up.
1. Information & Attrition.
With drones Ukraine gathered data on enemy positions and slowly attrited them with drone bomblets and artillery fire.
This occured to a depth of 10-15km from the zero-line.
This in turn freed up satelites from having to perform this and saved bandwidth enormously, and this in turn gave more deep targets for Ukraine to poke holes in.
This stage started in late February.
Due to the huge number of defences and trenches this took a lot of time.
And it is still ongoing along the entire frontline.
2. Artillery preparation started just prior to Easter.
But, unlike during previous wars it was slowly ramped up as they concentrated on winning artillery duels.
The target here was to kill The Soviet God of War.
During April, May and June the numbers of destroyed artillery pieces slowly increased as Ukraine used drone guided targeting data in pinpoint strikes.
On top of that they went for logistics, command centers, depots, supply hubs, bridges... all with pinpoint accuracy.
Due to the immensity of targets, and due to the scale this turned into the most prolonged artillery preparation in war history. And it will continue throughout, it will not stop just because other stages follow.
Here is the difference with other wars, there are not distinct stages following upon each other, instead they are adding new stages slowly, without transitioning from the old stage.
(3) Probing attacks? Nope, they are gone. Why do them when you have drones telling you everything you need to know.
3. The Glacial Breach.
This is technically not true, they are actually quite fast.
I should have said The Meticulous Breach.
We all expected Ukraine to do a bloody frontline breach assault to punch through.
But, that would have been costly to do just once, and due to the numerous lines it would have been devastating.
Instead they are meticulously picking apart lines and defences using infantry heavily supported by drone spotting and drone bomblet dropping in support.
This has in turn led to the very odd thing that Ukraine on the offensive has less combat losses than Russia.
A world first.
I see this as a point of strength that they can do this without even having engaged the brunt of their forces.
While the pundits heckle the Ukrainians for not going gungho like they hoped in their hollywood fevers, we as pro's take notes and discuss this and nod impressedly over our evening beer or cup of chocolate.
What also has us impressed is that they are doing this at 5 spots at the same time.
And that all 5 spots are successful so far.
Being able to do it at that many places is a tour of force.
During the second world war the allies could perform multiple offensives at the same time, but Germany could only force concentrate for one at a time.
Up until March Russia could do that, and did it in Bakhmut.
But, now every single attempt at force concentrations is swatted away like an annoying midge.
And here comes the beauty.
This stage is designed to both attrite and pull apart the Russians as they are forced by necessity to take forces from one place to reinforce somewhere else now that all of their operational reserves are engaged.
We are starting to see these emergency repositionings at an increasing rate now.
4. The Breaking
This is the point where the lines will start to break, and the offensive will go into a more rapid pace reminiscent most likely not of the Kharkiv offensive, but instead more like the speed of the Kherson offensive.
As soon as the Russians are pulled apart enough, or attrited enough, the Ukrainians wil crush through with a larger formation and move onwards quite a bit, but most likely not all the way to the coast in one go.
After a while they will pause if the run into a large enough defence line, and revert to stage 3 for a while.
I would here like to say that we are very close to stage 4.
Probably hours, but not more than a few days.
5. Consolidation & Operational Control
As Ukraine reaches a defence line they will consolidate the land in a traditional way with second rate units.
At the same time they will for each steap tighten their Operation Control of the landbridge until they have cut it in half.
Frontline Update
Bakhmut has been such a drain that Russia is now trying to move forces there from Southern Kherson, Crimea and Zhaporizhzhia.
This is obviously not good for the Russians.
It also has the effect that Ukraine can fire upon the Russians since they have the road they are travelling on under operational control with artillery from the Vuhledar salient to the H20.
So, just by moving their troops they have quite a substantial lossrate.
10
This is the current distance between the forward units and Donetsk City after heavy units started to move from the H20 salient towards the City.
Lots of nice views of CV90s demolishing houses and strongpoints as they provide cover for infantry and Leo2s...
I guess someone succumbed to her homesickness and decided to liberate her little house just for good measure.
At least, if nothing else it will make the Russians life even more miserable as they have to divert forces yet anew to try to stop her.
And, to spread salt on their wounds, it is further putting strain on the Russians ability to move from Donbas to the Southern Front.
Vuhledar salient into H20 has basically cut the landbridge operationally, and there are signs now that all logistics are now rerouted the long way around via Kersh Bridge for all of the Southern Front and Crimea.
I see a bridge getting very close to a smoking accident now.
Neskuchne Maiorske
Ukraine is still moving forwards here, a field here, and a treeline there.
75.17
This is the distance from Robotyne to the Azov Sea the way a GMLRS or GLSDB flies.
And with barrel artillery most roads are also under operational control now.
It is not the same iron vice grip as over at Vuhledar, at least yet.
But it definitely means that the Russians will have to run the gauntlet twice with every load of supplies and troops.
Kakhovka
Ukraine is also slowly crawling along the former dam shoreline, but it is so far slow going.
Far slower than I wish for.
Hill X
I have so far not found the name of this natural Fortress Hill that I talked about yesterday.
There are roughly 70 Ukrainians there now, and I only Ukraine could get reinforcements, a 155mm artillery piece, some shells, and a bit of air defence they could do stupendously nasty things on the poor hapless russians from here.
And it would be the nice starting point for a more specialised pincer along the shore towards xxxxxx
Antonivka
By now the Ukrainians have increased to around 350 soldiers.
Using that command bunker under the bridge was a stroke of genius really.
It will be hell for Russia to push them out, if it is even possible.
And if not the Russians are in **** creek as and when Ukraine reaches the amount of soldiers needed to advance forth.
Interesting place indeed.
In the future
It is now clear that Russia has to make a decission in the next month.
Either they start moving troops from Donbas to the Southern Front, or they do the opposite.
They just can't hold both, we are already seeing them moving troops, far sooner than I believed.
Currently the movement is towards Bakhmut.
I just do not get what is so special about it except a few coal and gasfields... but they are not so blooming fantastic that it is worth losing all of Russia over them.
If this continue, then Russia will towards the end of July have to Goodwill Gesture Southern Kherson, Zhaporizhzhia and parts of Donetsk to Ukraine.
Maybe even Crimea, depending on when the bridge is dropped.
I doubt that Ukraine after that have the supplies left for a Donbas offensive, so the final liberations would then be in about a year.
Note, the final liberation is not the same as peace.
There is still the risk that Russia continues the war by shelling and missile strikes ad absurdum.
But, let is cross that bridge when it comes.
Obviously, there is also the quite distinct chance that Russia does not exist next week and that we will have peace.
History will probably write that it was in between.
We will see."
