Some states never imposed a lock down. They tend to be the states with the best outcomes, though admittedly they're also the least populated.
The White House press conference discussed the three phase plan in considerable depth a few nights ago, along with a slide deck etc. For all the US poor start (mostly due to CDC messing up), their response since has been quite impressive. Fortunately the travel ban probably bought a couple of weeks grace. 17 states are in pretty good shape with among the least deaths per million (30/million or less) among developed nations. They could start opening up with a couple of weeks. I believe one or two states already check travelers arriving from out of state and require two weeks of isolation on arrival.
Despite New York's lock down it has one of the highest deaths per million with over 800/million. Take New York and New Jersey out of the picture and the US has German levels of deaths per million (60/million or thereabouts). A colleague of mine thinks the virus could have been in New York for weeks before the lock down. He was at a conference on January 14th and became very sick with an odd respiratory illness when he returned home. Since the first case to be hospitalised in Wuhan occurred on December 8th, by mid January hundreds of thousands could have been infected and have carried the virus around the world. I believe the US are investigating deaths from respiratory illness in February to determine if it was really Covid-19.
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