Ukraine good and bad news

Smoggle said:
Vnkovo could be Vnukovo - it’s a town, international airport and train stop just west of Moscow, not far from where I lived. I had heard he was in a bunker in Urals with close allies, but rumours will be rife just now.

As for western intelligence, it seems there are high level Russian assets, leaks or other espionage going on as the US has been very well informed in advance of Russia’s intentions and confident enough to go public.
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It is indeed Vnkuvo.
 
borolad259 said:
Apparently they have known his every move and all his plans well in advance. My source sent me a message well before the invasion, telling me the date and the time that Russian would cross into the Ukraine. He was two hours out ... the Russians went early.
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That was definitely something the Americans were very confident on, so much so they were happy to announce what Russia was planning- even in the face of critics calling them the warmongers and that they were trying to push Russia into war… nope, they just had solid inside intelligence and used it, it even called Putin’s bluff initially.
 
borolad259 said:
It is indeed Vnkuvo.
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Ha, glad I got out, with the metro and bunkers Moscow is riddled underground, wouldn’t fancy living near a bunker buster hit if he’s under my old gaff!

Oddly enough, I was just along the road from Stalin’s dacha in Kuntsevo too, Putin used that early in his presidency for a meeting with all the weight of history and intended intimidation of that location.
 
borolad259 said:
Although some fighting will continue, the war as it was is effectively over. The russian forces are being chased north or are retreating to dig in South East. Ukraine mechanised division is now preparing to head that way to re-take lost territory. The Russian chain of command has gone. Government in Russia is in a state of collapse. 75,000 govt employees ... from all ranks, bottom to top... have left their jobs/the country. Open dissent is now being broadcast unchallenged in Russian media. Apparently Russian state TV is not only now using the word "war" but are openly acknowledging that it has been lost. There is now widespread "concern" that the whole mis-adventure has resulted in the potential breakdown of the "old Russia". (An aside from me, this all sounds a bit worrying).

The military ... the old school marshals, are in honest dialogue with the west (not Nato or the US, but other independent countries like Finland). Their concern is that they will not only lose Donbass and the Crimea, but that the Ukraine may get excited and venture further. They are looking for guarantees against this. Basically they are beginning negotiations for surrender/end of the conflict. This is the military acting independently of Moscow. The losses of the last few days have been staggering and "too much to bear" for the old military heads.
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I think most who have been keeping an eye on this could come to some/ most of those conclusions. Russian retreat in the North is seemingly a sign of them giving up on their number one aim (overthrowing government), they seem like they wanted to go for the second prize of taking over some of the South East but if Ukraine can move their assets to the South East they could take it all back (including Crimea). Ukraine can probably move their gear over there, much quicker and with less issue than Russia could.

Every day that goes on, Ukraine get more and more gear from NATO, and the more Russia's problems rise exponentially.

Ukraine won't step foot in Russia, or I really hope they don't.

Not sure on the employees leaving, but seems entirely plausible and logical for those with other options. Not sure on Russian media, but surely this could be checked by someone who access or knows about that sort of thing?

Now the mental stuff. Putin is residing under Moscow between bunker D6 (?) and a command bunker at Vnkovo(?). More or less alone, save his daughter (who is his physician .... he doesn't trust anyone else) and, weirdly, some Aeroflot cabin crew. He did have his grandkids with him (he spent days watching cartoons while his military were being routed) but they have been sent to Belarus now. Apparently he trashed his office several days ago and tore ligaments in the process, so is now on heavy painkillers (great, a mad president on opoids), which have in turn made him constipated, so he is on the prune juice.

How does western intelligence know all of this? Good question, but apparently it is quite funny (black humour I am guessing). I am assured it will come out in time, when the info is no longer as sensitive, but the inference was that he is his own mole, effectively.

I accept that some, or all of the above may be total ballocks but, if you think it is, just ignore it. For my part, my friend has been a reliable and intelligent source for a long time. Prone to hyperbole at times, but usually that is for comic effect.
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I think he's certain to be in a bunker, and we know he trusts next to nobody, and will become more and more isolated. Not sure how the rest of that could be known, but I don't doubt the intelligence gathering would be extreme, and know just about everything. There seems to be some hyperbole in there but I understand that.
 
Andy_W said:
I think most who have been keeping an eye on this could come to some/ most of those conclusions. Russian retreat in the North is seemingly a sign of them giving up on their number one aim (overthrowing government), they seem like they wanted to go for the second prize of taking over some of the South East but if Ukraine can move their assets to the South East they could take it all back (including Crimea). Ukraine can probably move their gear over there, much quicker and with less issue than Russia could.

Every day that goes on, Ukraine get more and more gear from NATO, and the more Russia's problems rise exponentially.

Ukraine won't step foot in Russia, or I really hope they don't.

Not sure on the employees leaving, but seems entirely plausible and logical for those with other options. Not sure on Russian media, but surely this could be checked by someone who access or knows about that sort of thing?



I think he's certain to be in a bunker, and we know he trusts next to nobody, and will become more and more isolated. Not sure how the rest of that could be known, but I don't doubt the intelligence gathering would be extreme, and know just about everything. There seems to be some hyperbole in there but I understand that.
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While they shouldn't do it. Maybe Ukraine would create a buffer 'security zone' inside Russia. That might increase the pressure to get rid of Putin - showing that it has actually cost Russia territory. I definitely hope Putin is dead very soon.
However it is strange that if this 'rout' is progressing it's not being reported more widely. Not saying it's wrong - borolad was right about Irpin - it just doesn't feel as though it's quite 'that good' yet
 
TeessideCleveland said:
While they shouldn't do it. Maybe Ukraine would create a buffer 'security zone' inside Russia. That might increase the pressure to get rid of Putin - showing that it has actually cost Russia territory. I definitely hope Putin is dead very soon.
However it is strange that if this 'rout' is progressing it's not being reported more widely. Not saying it's wrong - borolad was right about Irpin - it just doesn't feel as though it's quite 'that good' yet
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They really don't want to be seen as an aggressor though, even though it may be justified as some sort of possible payback. Tactically it would be a mistake, and ultimately they would never be able to hold it, as it's a lot harder to attack than to defend. NATO will have some sort of contract saying the weapons given can only be used as defence, and within the Ukraine border.

DMZ's or contested zones rarely work, and just drag things out, it would create a permanent enemy, where as a "normal" Russian loss/ retreat may be enough to get Russia moving in the right direction again.

Ukraine going in on Russia would be suicide, but would also make loads of Russians think "maybe what Putin was saying wasn't all b***ks", don't give them that bone to chew on.

Zelensky's not daft though, and they've got nearly everything right tactically, so they won't make this mistake, it would be a massive one.

Get Russians back in Russia and they could tear themselves apart/ split up into different areas, or overthrow Putin and move a lot closer to the West, which would be good for them, and us.

I think some of the post is getting ahead of itself, but looks to be going in that direction.

The worlds market have picked up a lot over the last couple of weeks, which is hopefully a sign of more confidence in an end to this.1648548690350.png
 
Andy_W said:
They really don't want to be seen as an aggressor though, even though it may be justified as some sort of possible payback. Tactically it would be a mistake, and ultimately they would never be able to hold it, as it's a lot harder to attack than to defend. NATO will have some sort of contract saying the weapons given can only be used as defence, and within the Ukraine border.

DMZ's or contested zones rarely work, and just drag things out, it would create a permanent enemy, where as a "normal" Russian loss/ retreat may be enough to get Russia moving in the right direction again.

Ukraine going in on Russia would be suicide, but would also make loads of Russians think "maybe what Putin was saying wasn't all b***ks", don't give them that bone to chew on.

Zelensky's not daft though, and they've got nearly everything right tactically, so they won't make this mistake, it would be a massive one.

Get Russians back in Russia and they could tear themselves apart/ split up into different areas, or overthrow Putin and move a lot closer to the West, which would be good for them, and us.

I think some of the post is getting ahead of itself, but looks to be going in that direction.
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It would also surely be in Georgia's mind to try and liberate the territories occupied by the dictator's army - while it is focussed on how it is getting beaten so badly in Ukraine
 
TeessideCleveland said:
It would also surely be in Georgia's mind to try and liberate the territories occupied by the dictator's army - while it is focussed on how it is getting beaten so badly in Ukraine
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I work with a lady from Georgia, I would guess around 50. I didn't realise that Russia pretty much stole 25% of her country. She has no doubt when this ends they will fight to get it back.
 
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