Wales circuit breaker ends..

Alvez_48

Alvez_48

Well-known member
Getting more and more political because they've opened gyms and restaurants etc despite their 'curve' being no different to the England's and in some places like Merthyr Tydfil its worse.

Anyone think this will make the UK government open some things before December like gyms?
 
Its very naughty because the Welsh government are essentially diverting the attention away from the fact that their circuit breaker had 0 impact, but I am rather jealous of them right now. 🤣
 
Be interesting to see what happens in border towns.
English neighbours will be very tempted to pop over for a meal and a few beers
 
Alvez_48 said:
Getting more and more political because they've opened gyms and restaurants etc despite their 'curve' being no different to the England's and in some places like Merthyr Tydfil its worse.

Anyone think this will make the UK government open some things before December like gyms?
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Merthyr Tydfil has, of yesterday, had a 35% fall in cases from the peak. The early data (beginning of November) for other areas were flattening or falling. It looks like it worked, but what happens next will be the issue.
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If you can to a gym I see no reason why you can't go and sit in a beer garden, or even a pub with good social distancing for that matter.
 
Not sure how things are getting more political?
Pubs and gyms were open in England whilst they were closed in Wales.
 
If the net result of the measures implemented will not be known for another 2 weeks (as reported), then why not just keep the measures in place for a further 2 weeks, then asses the data retrospectively using today as the "where are we now" point. If the net result is a significantly positive one as of 9th Nov, then great, the measures must have worked, but if measures are revoked and in 2 week's time the net result is that it has not had a significant impact, then we ( or in this case Wales) have lost 2 weeks during which time, further spread will have occurred. I just don't think it's sensible to have a finite cut-off point is there is such a lag in being able to determine effectiveness. That's why I have no doubt we will not come out of lockdown #2 on the 2nd Dec
 
Artie Fufkin said:
If the net result of the measures implemented will not be known for another 2 weeks (as reported), then why not just keep the measures in place for a further 2 weeks, then asses the data retrospectively using today as the "where are we now" point. If the net result is a significantly positive one as of 9th Nov, then great, the measures must have worked, but if measures are revoked and in 2 week's time the net result is that it has not had a significant impact, then we ( or in this case Wales) have lost 2 weeks during which time, further spread will have occurred. I just don't think it's sensible to have a finite cut-off point is there is such a lag in being able to determine effectiveness. That's why I have no doubt we will not come out of lockdown #2 on the 2nd Dec
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and if it has worked? The R number is down and people haven’t been locked up for a further two weeks? I bet the majority of people in England wish they’d followed the Welsh way on this one. We’ll see in two weeks.
 
Seriously that's backwards logic. Wales is coming out of lockdown with the town that has the highest number of cases in the UK and you're suggesting that it worked and we should wish to be like them.

We aren't in lockdown because of a virus we're in lockdown because the government decided to put us in one.
 
nowthen said:
and if it has worked? The R number is down and people haven’t been locked up for a further two weeks? I bet the majority of people in England wish they’d followed the Welsh way on this one. We’ll see in two weeks.
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If it had worked, then the worst that has happened is 2 more weeks of restrictions, people being locked up, which bearing in mind how long this has been going on for already, isn't going to make much difference to people's live or the economy although I obviously cant provide empirical evidence for this, I'm just expressing a view). Plus, those 2 weeks will have done even more to prevent the spread and reduce infection rates, so we'd be in an even better position than easing measures today. The better case scenario is worth the risk of the worse case scenario IMO. My point is really about the lag in seeing the data: the damage of easing measures 2 weeks earlier than that data is available is worse than keeping them imposed until the data has been analysed
 
Alvez_48 said:
Seriously that's backwards logic. Wales is coming out of lockdown with the town that has the highest number of cases in the UK and you're suggesting that it worked and we should wish to be like them.

We aren't in lockdown because of a virus we're in lockdown because the government decided to put us in one.
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They haven't got the highest number of cases in the UK.
 
Caesium137 said:
If you can to a gym I see no reason why you can't go and sit in a beer garden, or even a pub with good social distancing for that matter.
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I do agree with you here........ there is a ‘BUT’ though.........

The issue is, if people were guaranteed to behave responsibly, respectfully and with good grace, it would be fine. Therein lies the problem, some will, some won’t, some will push boundaries or want that extra pint or two more that then hinders their ability to avoid being a selfish thoughtless dipstick. The business owners and employees in these places are generally excellent and their places are often made as safe as they can be. Unfortunately, some of their clientele can occasionally be a whole new ball game, sadly.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Ok one of the highest numbers of cases in the UK, you really are happy to split hairs, I've not checked today.
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It's fallen 35% in the last 10 days. It's now below a lot of the NW. 10 days ago it was much higher.
 
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