nowthen
Well-known member
Look to Oldham, Wigan, Salford, Hull. Very similar numbers to Merthyr.
Wales circuit breaker ends..
- Thread starter Alvez_48
- Start date
Just in case you missed this on the other thread https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?threads/the-9am-figures-not-disclosed-yet.1870/page-124, and in case anyone on here is also wrongly doubting the effect of lock downs:
Cases were rising rapidly from 1 Oct to 23 Oct in South Wales, Merthyr Tydfil being the worst, and the average trend was increasing week on week.
23rd of October was when Wales circuit breaker/lock down came in (they spotted the increase and did something about it)
Just because a lock down comes in, does not mean cases are going to stop immediately, not while people live together and symptoms do not come on instantly
So there's nearly always going to be a slight delay in the lockdown effect
By around the 29th they had peaked in MT (within 6 days of lock down)
Then to the 2nd Nov they had levelled off and were on their way down
Your link in the other thread where you made this false claim is three days old (from 6th Nov)
They had a peak of 741, which looks to be on 30th of October (9 days ago)
The number seems to be a 7 day average, up to the given date
So, the 741 peak is actually data from or around 23rd Oct to 30th Oct, so some data feeding into that is up to 17 days old
So, you're using numbers, that are as old as the day when the lock down came in
So, you're just using old data, and cases went from a rapid incline to levelling off, within a week of lockdown, and then a week later they were on their way down
Now they're out of lock down, and you think this is all some sort of coincidence/ miracle?
If we had followed suit we could have also maybe been in and then out of lockdown now
Saying you don't like lockdowns is fine, nobody likes them
Saying lockdowns cost the UK a fortune is fine, they do
Saying lockdowns have no effect on cases is absolutely ludicrous
bear66
Well-known member
Not sure about Hull but the others are higher as are Blackburn, Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Bradford and Kirklees.
nowthen
Well-known member
that’s weird, because England isn’t in lockdown due to the virus.
Alvez_48
Well-known member
Look to Liverpool, Nottingham and any other major city that's numbers have come down they all look the same regardless of level of sanction.
The point of this thread was to ask if our gym's would open maybe a little earlier and to display how the Welsh government are making political rather than 'science' based decisions..
Alvez_48
Well-known member
What about Liverpool, Nottingham, Leeds?
nowthen
Well-known member
Sadly those cities are also in England. Many areas of Wales had very little covid, Pembrokeshire and Cardigan but they were in the Wales Firebreak too, because they’re in Wales. That’s a national lockdown/firebreak.
The LTA have lobbied the government for outdoor tennis to be allowed during this lockdown. The answer was no. Gyms have no chance.
Caesium137
Well-known member
Yeah I agree with you there like Col. I did think during the whole pandemic post pubs opening that if you wanted to minimise the numbers in there then reducing opening hours seemed counter intuitive. 24 hour opening would allow the broadest spectrum of customers to pop in for a few sociable pints whenever they fancied it, allowing increased footfall (and hence sales) with less household interactions. The elephant in the room being a chunk of the British public taking on the challenge of 24 hour binge drinking with gusto and the resulting chaos/carnage.
Would have been nice though.
I would love us to get away from our 'ten pints before last orders' drinking culture. I'm sure the fact it is time limited plays into this on a lot of occasions, increasing our problems. Having all pubs / night clubs kicking out at the same time puts a strain on local police and A&E's in many places.
Unfortunately it would maybe take a generation or two (or even three) to pass through the 'free for all' drinking phase before we could be trusted to use it like grown ups I fear. But I do believe it could work in the long term.
1finny
Well-known member
Lockdowns obviously depress cases for a while - if observed.
What happens after lockdown is the next question.
Since lockdown 1 we have been out and about (for a period of time without masks), been encouraged to eat out in pubs, largely used our common sense and have had over 5 months of deaths in line with the 5 year average.
That's the main aim though isn't it, stop a massive increase which would take months to recover from. If cases get low enough then they can be suppressed or managed with track and trace (if it's working). We pretty much proved we could get cases low and keep them low in summer, and with schools and uni's closed. But winter with them open is a different matter.
Looking at the way our graph went up and came back down in March-July, for every week we didn't lock down, we had to lock down for 3 weeks to get back to the same level. I think now it's more likely to be 1 week up 2 weeks down, which is better, as we have better knowledge and testing. Not letting it go up is the key though.
Short sharp lock downs early doors, testing and tracking and tracing seems to be the best way, pretty much like we were told in February by Asia.
The lockdowns are just there to protect the NHS primarily and buy us some time till the vaccine gets sorted secondary. The vaccine (and other similar vaccines) look like it's coming though, some great news on that today. We might be able to get away without further lockdowns after this one, or maybe just short ones like Wales afterwards.
Looking at the places that were struggling pre full England lock down, It looks like the tier 2 and 3 measures were having a great effect too, just not quite enough by the looks of it.
1finny
Well-known member
Drawing conclusions like this are just fraught with risk.
Fair enough, its your belief, but wouldn’t really hold up to scrutiny.
Doesn’t mean its wrong, by the way, just there is no way of really knowing.
Yeah, hence the "looks like" and "not quite enough", but probably shouldn't have used the words great effect.
Early days to tell about that Tier 2 and 3 as it wasn't used for all that long but the trajectory of the increase in cases for those areas seemingly had changed pre national lock down, so a full national lockdown should only change them more.
Yeah, definitely. Each one will be lighter and lighter, which is fine if we get to the outbreak earlier and earlier. The longer we wait and delay, they worse it is, the tougher the restrictions to recover.
As for transits/ construction sub-contracting, the first lockdown was like that too, to be fair, and it's been like that since. A lot of them share rooms and pocket the digs money too.
SmallTown
Well-known member
I guess it's a health thing. Much better for people to go to the gym than the pub.
Caesium137
Well-known member
So makes pubs illegal then. If it is a legal pass-time in the UK I don't see why the government should be deciding that for us. There must surely be more chance of transmission with people sweating, wiping faces, touching weights and equipment, breathing heavily, shared toilets and showers etc. in a gym than people sat ordering a few pints on their phones in a beer garden.
SmallTown
Well-known member
Don't over react by saying pubs should be illegal. During a health crisis it makes sense to allow things which improve peoples health whilst still restricting things that are detrimental to ones health. My gym was fine, and everything was wiped down before and after use so all those scenarios yiu state never occurred.
Randy
Well-known member
Same things happened in my workplace too.
I think it's the time spent in a location too, I'm assuming people are only in the gym an hour or so, but pubs could literally be all day, and people are going to be a lot more responsible in the gym, than the pub. Then there's the proximity, loud talking and shouting in pubs, which is par for the course.
I imagine nobody with any symptoms would be in the gym, where as some people would go the pub in any state, especially if they're younger and can take it. I can't take hangovers anymore, so couldn't even dream of going to the pub with any symptoms. Obviously this isn't covering those that don't get symptoms.
I really don't see why beer gardens can't be open mind, can't imagine they would be all that busy and it shouldn't be too bad if people aren't hammered. It's a bit unfair on those pubs that don't have a beer garden though, the government might get some flack making some close, but not others.
I've not been to the pub since February, which is some going for me, considering I spent my entire 20's out 2-3 times a week, getting hammered, and 30's has been out most Saturday nights. Think I've only been pi$$ed once, since this pandemic.
Redwurzel
Well-known member
I heard the Police are guarding the border at Hay on Wye to check people crossing - the town is 90% in Wales. If you are a Welsh resident you can wander where you like, if English £10? fine. The town is deserted and it relies on tourists for its main income. Its a "jobsworth" heaven at present.