YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Labour will be a good few percantage ahead, but Polls that quote 50% and 55% for one party across the UK struggle to have creditability.

Historically when did one part get 50% or more at a General Election? And we have more parties now with the rise of the Greens and SNP. (No Party has got more than 43.9% since 1970)

I struggle to think how pollsters methodolgies can account for say the Blair charm offensive Media owners in the run up to a general election.
 
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Chris_Boro

Well-known member
Labour will be a good few percantage ahead, but Polls that quote 50% and 55% for one party across the UK struggle to have creditability.

Historically when did one part get 50% or more at a General Election? And we have more parties now with the rise of the Greens and SNP.

I struggle to think how pollsters methodolgies can account for say the Blair charm offensive Media owners in the run up to a genel election.

These numbers are happening because the Tories are destroying their own core vote, it is eminently feasible that their entire centre ground vote base will shift to Labour.

That is the current trend in the granular data. It may not last but it could just as easily get worse for them.
 

Ziggy

Well-known member
It’s going to be interesting to see on Monday. Most of them have not seen these kind of numbers.
The thing, in the end that they care about, is their seats. Might be a bit of a meltdown at the conference.
 

HolgateCorner

Well-known member
These numbers are happening because the Tories are destroying their own core vote, it is eminently feasible that their entire centre ground vote base will shift to Labour.

That is the current trend in the granular data. It may not last but it could just as easily get worse for them.
I think it is more likely that disgruntled Tories will abstain.

Either way it could be good for Labour.
 

Chris_Boro

Well-known member
And next week it could be 5%. Calm down. People's opinion's turn on a sixpence. Hopefully a significant lead will persist but no way is 30+% going to last long.

I've already said similar in this thread so calming down isn't necessary.

Commenting on why this has happened however, is.
 

Frozen Horse

Well-known member
Looking at the aggregation of recent polls (see link) the average lead is 20 points.

What I find interesting is, beyond the obvious increase in support for Labour and decline for the Tories, LD support is basically flatlining or even slightly down.

If this was simply a case of the nation turning on the Tories, would we not expect to see LD support increase in the areas of the country where they are the main opposition? I think we would, and that's simply not happening. Instead, I have to think the change is partly because the nation is starting to buy into Starmer: a victory at this point would be more than taking advantage of Tory failure. A week after the Labour conference, you'd be surprised if there weren't a bounce in their support in any circumstances, but the polls suggest at least some of this is due to Labour getting it right instead of just the Tories getting it wrong.

I don't think it could be a 5% gap next week though; hasn't been that close since May (the month, not the leader).

link
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Looking at the aggregation of recent polls (see link) the average lead is 20 points.

What I find interesting is, beyond the obvious increase in support for Labour and decline for the Tories, LD support is basically flatlining or even slightly down.

If this was simply a case of the nation turning on the Tories, would we not expect to see LD support increase in the areas of the country where they are the main opposition? I think we would, and that's simply not happening. Instead, I have to think the change is partly because the nation is starting to buy into Starmer: a victory at this point would be more than taking advantage of Tory failure. A week after the Labour conference, you'd be surprised if there weren't a bounce in their support in any circumstances, but the polls suggest at least some of this is due to Labour getting it right instead of just the Tories getting it wrong.

I don't think it could be a 5% gap next week though; hasn't been that close since May (the month, not the leader).

link
I agree but I also think you have to remember that the Lib Dems had to cancel their conference (and therefore any media coverage) due to the funeral of the Queen. At the moment, to the casual observer, it looks like a straight fight between the Tories and Labour, with this week’s events strengthening the Labour cause.

I do think the polls will narrow over time, but I also think that most people have now made their minds up about 12 years of Tory government. Once you get into a ‘time for change’ mood in the country, it’s very difficult to get back out of it.
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
And next week it could be 5%. Calm down. People's opinion's turn on a sixpence. Hopefully a significant lead will persist but no way is 30+% going to last long.
it needs positive action to turn it back though, that lead won't melt away on its own, I see nothing in Truss to make me believe she's got the strategic capability, charm or intellect to turn that around. Only external forces and luck could do it
 
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