Update.
"This Friday a big goal was achieved as Finland, Norway and Sweden hit the target of increasing weapons production tenfold.
During 2024 the target is increasing that five times more.
Oopa! as Ingrid would say.
The rest of Europe is trailing in the increase department, but every single country reported in increases of at least 100 percent from pre-war levels.
We are getting there now.
Germany reported an 800 percent increase, with UK and France trailing close after at 700ish percent.
The somewhat unexpected star is though Denmark that increased more than 100 times, but that is due to them being at almost zero at the onset of war, and having opened a plant now, so not really as impressive as it sound, but they are building more plants.
Booms
This night we saw clearly the result of the increase in production of arms, specifically in regards of missiles.
In Sevastopol 20 Stormshadow/SCALP EGs hit targets in such an insane fashion that the city is now almost demilitarised as a base.
3 AD launchers and 1 AD radar was hit, the FSB HQ of Crimea was destroyed with 3 hits, and two ships was at least damaged.
We are awaiting imagery of the ships if they were just damaged or if they sank.
And there was more booms.
At the same time Russia was once again rage-droning and missiling Ukraine, this time towards Lviv.
Among the targets a Kinzhal worth 20 million USD destroyed a public toilet.
The bulk of them did though go for power infrastructure and a Ukrainian refinery.
The power infrastructure is being fixed as I write this, and the refinery is not as important since Ukraine already was receiving all of the refined fuels it needs due to the refinery having been hit previously.
Russia is definitely using more drones and missiles now than it is producing, so they will soon run out and have to decrease things, whereas Ukraine is set to slowly increase the rate of attacks.
But, as per usual Ukraine could do with more AD.
Rasputitsa
Rasputitsa is almost upon us now, in some sectors it has already started, and soon all offensives will stop in Ukraine, both Ukrainian and Russian.
Or perhaps I should rephrase that.
All armoured offensives will stop that is going across fields and unpaved roads.
Russia could after all continue with more pure meatwaves, and Ukraine along roads with armour.
But, there will be a huge decrease in offensive operations very soon.
The exceptions to this will be around Robotyne and in Kherson since the ground there is sandy and not conducive to the same level of "mudification".
Frontlines
I will do this counterclockwise.
Russia is still attempting to take Robotyne, and Ukraine is gleefully shelling them as they come.
The situation is though hard for Ukraine here, and it is unsure if they will be able to hold on to Robotyne in the medium term.
Avdivka has now almost ground to a halt completely, with Russia barely achieving a small field per day.
Here Rasputitsa is becoming a thing already, so Russia is trying to use those Chinese golf carts to see if they float on mud, hint they do not.
The attacks towards Chasiv Yar is continuing, but without any success from the Russian side.
It is expected that this area will become mudified this week, and that would be it here for the Russians until summer arrives.
Lyman/Kreminna Axis, here Russia is pushing hard to try to reach the river before Rasputitsa sets in, this is deemed to happen in about 1-2 weeks time.
In Kupyansk Russia is still trying to get traction, but with the newly arrived shells things have gone truly dark for them, and their attacks are now shelled into nothing as soon as they start to accumulate.
Rasputitsa is here about to setin within the next 14 days.
Bilhorod, with the bridges being blown, and Rasputitsa around the corner, Ukraine is about to switch the strategy for the Free Russians.
(not showing this bit)
Rasputitsa Strategy
While everything is muddy and dreary on the battlefield, more energy will be put into hampering Russian logistics and production to set the stage for summer.
The idea is to grind away as fast as possible with artillery and longrange weapons to set the stage for summer.
This also means hitting arriving Russian mobiks hard to try to keep the number down as much as possible.
And, as always prio number 1 is Russian equipment, that grinding will continue unabated, or even increase since fewer shells will be neaded to break up Russian meatwaves.
Budanov is also very happy about a new boonfangled longrange drone that will make it possible to hit targets deeper inside Russia than ever before.
His target is to be able to hit targets 2 500 kilometres inside Russia at the end of the year, and he seems so happy that I think he will reach his target.
Obviously the top priority for those will be refineries and other fuel related targets.
It is here important to understand that all refineries bar one is owned by Putin, either half or fully.
The oil industry is the basis of his personal wealth, and the foundation of Russias entire war economy.
Without it Russia has no more money to fuel the war.
So, Budanov is hitting his personal wallet, and the wallet of Russia.
Hence the rage missiling and droning.
This is Putin on a personal rage storm as he is growing poorer and poorer while seeing his hydrocarbon empire being squashed one drone at a time.
It is sort of glorious.
If the war drags on Russia will be ever so fooked come winter.
No fuel, no food, no heating.
And all being played out in slow motion infront of our eyes in advance as one refinery after another goes "boom".
I correct myself, it is definitely glorious.
Crocus Fallout
With Russia initially trying to blame Ukraine and the West failing as ISIS released bodycam photage of the attack, there is now utter confusion inside of Russia.
And it does not help that they then tried to blame Tajikistan by arresting 11 Tajiks and torturing them into confessing, and then claiming that they would have fled to Ukraine.
The reason for the last part turning into **** is that ISIS videos clearly show that none of the arrested participated in the attack, and the bodycam evidence sort of hint at all of the assailants got away.
Ukraine obviously do not give a **** about what Russia is saying, after all it is not as Russia is able to start a new war on Ukraine.
But, Tajikistan is not impressed with being blamed falsely, and they are now about to leave CSTO and are sounding out the possibility of help from the EU and the sort of EU-affiliate program member Kazakhstan.
And at the same time Syria is starting to be a real headache for Russia since several very disparate groups are now demonstrating openly against Russia and Iran, asking them to get the hell out of Syria, and attacks on Russian targets there is increasing quite a bit.
Who'd have thunk that ISIS, Druze, Christians, Kurds and moderate muslims would align around a common cause?
And yet here we are.
Russia truly is good at making friends."