The end?

Ukraine is no longer alone. And if Budanov keeps sytematically picking aprt their oil refining industries, Russia's problems will only get bigger before they can carry out their wider plan. But make no mistake, that plan doesn't stop with Ukraine.
Setting aside, if it's possible, the current horrendous situation that has led us to the point where a despicable terrorist attack on concert goers leads to a fully armed defensive response from the West . It is deeply fascinating that Putin's hollowing out of his own country has led him to the point where he needs to expand more aggressively than the Soviet State did militarily (in a direct way). The Cold War was all about proxies and hidden influence. Putin's regime have really overreached and the consequences are gonna be massive for a generation or two.
 
Fallout, the initial thought in Europe was that this was a false flag attack to either go nuclear in Ukraine, or to attack Europe outright.
And the initial Russian comments did indeed track with this narrative to a T.
In fact, the comments given was so fast that they seemed pre-prepared and rehersed.

So, the button was pushed in Europe to prep for an imminent war.
While you where sleeping in Europe air defence units moved out to pre-selected spots, radars turned on, and fighter jets and sigint/radar planes flooded the borders towards Russia with shoot-to-kill orders against any approaching planes.
Obviously this level of readiness is extremely dangerous, and is avoided at all cost by everyone, but this time it was warranted due to the initial responses by Russia.

As the confusion started to spread in Russia over who did it, and the narrative changed to the usual rubbish, the shoot-to-kill order was dropped, but the rest remained.
Russia obviously noticed that Europe had enacted the rapid response system and did not like the possibility of a shooting war with Europe over something that was out of their control.
And they called and talked, and war was avoided by showing strength, Russians only talk in case they are about to be bonked over the head.
Quite scary to think Europe was put on war alert.

But as a positive to this I may be reading this wrong, but this seems to have scared Putin and made Russia back peddle slightly ? Knowing Europe was ready?

So based on that there has always been worries Putin could escalate the war, but infact the fact Russia decided to talk based on Europe's response did this scare Russia and they actually were worried about escalation?
 
Quite scary to think Europe was put on war alert.

But as a positive to this I may be reading this wrong, but this seems to have scared Putin and made Russia back peddle slightly ? Knowing Europe was ready?

So based on that there has always been worries Putin could escalate the war, but infact the fact Russia decided to talk based on Europe's response did this scare Russia and they actually were worried about escalation?
As commented elsewhere, these guys are gangsters and criminals and while they bully and threaten, and while they don’t give a toss about anyone else’s lives, they won’t risk their own. They’ll back off every time.
 
Quite scary to think Europe was put on war alert.

But as a positive to this I may be reading this wrong, but this seems to have scared Putin and made Russia back peddle slightly ? Knowing Europe was ready?

So based on that there has always been worries Putin could escalate the war, but infact the fact Russia decided to talk based on Europe's response did this scare Russia and they actually were worried about escalation?

Channels of communication are kept open between Moscow and the West in order to avoid any "misunderstandings" that might trigger a nuclear response. For instance, if Moscow is testing ballistic missiles in the arctic, the know that the West will see preparations being made, long before the missile is fired and, in order to avoid a pre-emptive strike from the West, they make it clear what they are doing.

And they may be fully at war with Ukraine, but they are not ready (yet) for a full blown conflict with the other European neighbours. Especially as they know full well that French special forces and others have already arrived.

On another note, I asked my mate how come the Russian airforce are seemingly able to bomb the RFF in Bilhorod with impunity, using glide bombs. The answer is that the "offensive" in Bilhorod is technically an invasion of Russian territory, and some of the West's equipment is not to be used in such an invasion. If it's re-taking Ukrainian teritory in Donbas and Kherson, then the Russian airforce is fair game.
 
Update.

"This Friday a big goal was achieved as Finland, Norway and Sweden hit the target of increasing weapons production tenfold.
During 2024 the target is increasing that five times more.
Oopa! as Ingrid would say.

The rest of Europe is trailing in the increase department, but every single country reported in increases of at least 100 percent from pre-war levels.
We are getting there now.

Germany reported an 800 percent increase, with UK and France trailing close after at 700ish percent.
The somewhat unexpected star is though Denmark that increased more than 100 times, but that is due to them being at almost zero at the onset of war, and having opened a plant now, so not really as impressive as it sound, but they are building more plants.

Booms
This night we saw clearly the result of the increase in production of arms, specifically in regards of missiles.
In Sevastopol 20 Stormshadow/SCALP EGs hit targets in such an insane fashion that the city is now almost demilitarised as a base.
3 AD launchers and 1 AD radar was hit, the FSB HQ of Crimea was destroyed with 3 hits, and two ships was at least damaged.
We are awaiting imagery of the ships if they were just damaged or if they sank.
And there was more booms.

At the same time Russia was once again rage-droning and missiling Ukraine, this time towards Lviv.
Among the targets a Kinzhal worth 20 million USD destroyed a public toilet.
The bulk of them did though go for power infrastructure and a Ukrainian refinery.
The power infrastructure is being fixed as I write this, and the refinery is not as important since Ukraine already was receiving all of the refined fuels it needs due to the refinery having been hit previously.

Russia is definitely using more drones and missiles now than it is producing, so they will soon run out and have to decrease things, whereas Ukraine is set to slowly increase the rate of attacks.
But, as per usual Ukraine could do with more AD.

Rasputitsa
Rasputitsa is almost upon us now, in some sectors it has already started, and soon all offensives will stop in Ukraine, both Ukrainian and Russian.
Or perhaps I should rephrase that.

All armoured offensives will stop that is going across fields and unpaved roads.
Russia could after all continue with more pure meatwaves, and Ukraine along roads with armour.
But, there will be a huge decrease in offensive operations very soon.

The exceptions to this will be around Robotyne and in Kherson since the ground there is sandy and not conducive to the same level of "mudification".

Frontlines
I will do this counterclockwise.
Russia is still attempting to take Robotyne, and Ukraine is gleefully shelling them as they come.
The situation is though hard for Ukraine here, and it is unsure if they will be able to hold on to Robotyne in the medium term.

Avdivka has now almost ground to a halt completely, with Russia barely achieving a small field per day.
Here Rasputitsa is becoming a thing already, so Russia is trying to use those Chinese golf carts to see if they float on mud, hint they do not.

The attacks towards Chasiv Yar is continuing, but without any success from the Russian side.
It is expected that this area will become mudified this week, and that would be it here for the Russians until summer arrives.

Lyman/Kreminna Axis, here Russia is pushing hard to try to reach the river before Rasputitsa sets in, this is deemed to happen in about 1-2 weeks time.

In Kupyansk Russia is still trying to get traction, but with the newly arrived shells things have gone truly dark for them, and their attacks are now shelled into nothing as soon as they start to accumulate.
Rasputitsa is here about to setin within the next 14 days.

Bilhorod, with the bridges being blown, and Rasputitsa around the corner, Ukraine is about to switch the strategy for the Free Russians.
(not showing this bit)

Rasputitsa Strategy
While everything is muddy and dreary on the battlefield, more energy will be put into hampering Russian logistics and production to set the stage for summer.
The idea is to grind away as fast as possible with artillery and longrange weapons to set the stage for summer.

This also means hitting arriving Russian mobiks hard to try to keep the number down as much as possible.
And, as always prio number 1 is Russian equipment, that grinding will continue unabated, or even increase since fewer shells will be neaded to break up Russian meatwaves.

Budanov is also very happy about a new boonfangled longrange drone that will make it possible to hit targets deeper inside Russia than ever before.
His target is to be able to hit targets 2 500 kilometres inside Russia at the end of the year, and he seems so happy that I think he will reach his target.

Obviously the top priority for those will be refineries and other fuel related targets.

It is here important to understand that all refineries bar one is owned by Putin, either half or fully.
The oil industry is the basis of his personal wealth, and the foundation of Russias entire war economy.
Without it Russia has no more money to fuel the war.

So, Budanov is hitting his personal wallet, and the wallet of Russia.
Hence the rage missiling and droning.
This is Putin on a personal rage storm as he is growing poorer and poorer while seeing his hydrocarbon empire being squashed one drone at a time.
It is sort of glorious.

If the war drags on Russia will be ever so fooked come winter.
No fuel, no food, no heating.
And all being played out in slow motion infront of our eyes in advance as one refinery after another goes "boom".
I correct myself, it is definitely glorious.

Crocus Fallout
With Russia initially trying to blame Ukraine and the West failing as ISIS released bodycam photage of the attack, there is now utter confusion inside of Russia.
And it does not help that they then tried to blame Tajikistan by arresting 11 Tajiks and torturing them into confessing, and then claiming that they would have fled to Ukraine.

The reason for the last part turning into **** is that ISIS videos clearly show that none of the arrested participated in the attack, and the bodycam evidence sort of hint at all of the assailants got away.

Ukraine obviously do not give a **** about what Russia is saying, after all it is not as Russia is able to start a new war on Ukraine.
But, Tajikistan is not impressed with being blamed falsely, and they are now about to leave CSTO and are sounding out the possibility of help from the EU and the sort of EU-affiliate program member Kazakhstan.

And at the same time Syria is starting to be a real headache for Russia since several very disparate groups are now demonstrating openly against Russia and Iran, asking them to get the hell out of Syria, and attacks on Russian targets there is increasing quite a bit.
Who'd have thunk that ISIS, Druze, Christians, Kurds and moderate muslims would align around a common cause?
And yet here we are.
Russia truly is good at making friends."
 
Some updatey stuff

"We are now more in a phase of the war where the one with the bigger capacity to cause damage to civilian and military production will win.

Currently Ukraine is bombarding military complexes, military factories, oil refineries, transportation, powerplants, other factories, etcetera inside Russia.
Russia on the other hand is hitting Ukrainian power infrastructure, civilian housing, toilets and mischellanous whatnots.

Note that almost all of the Ukrainian targeting inside of Russia is done with drones and missiles produced inside of Ukraine.
This is a very important point.

Because to the surprise of almost everyone Ukraine is winning this phase of the war and is causing disproportionate damage to Russia, due to outproducing Russia.
And it doesn't help that Russia is seemingly lacking air defence to protect its assets, so more drones and missiles hit Russian targets compared to Russia is managing against Ukraine.

This morning I awoke without electricity and water, and had to make my morning coffee on bottled water and a field stove.
Now my electricity is restored.

And this is leading me to the next part that is disproportionate.
Ukraine is fielding an army of 10 000 repairmen designated to keeping electricity coming.
Also, almost everyone in Ukraine have their own generators by now, if needed.
To top that, Ukraine also have enormous supply stacks of components to quickly repair anything that has been boomed, plus an army of international contractors from the suppliers to help with installing the stuff.

Russia has no army of repairmen, they are at the fronline.
Russia does not have generators available, nor do they have access to spareparts.

Does Russia have any advantage in this stage of the war?
Yes they have one.
And that is that they have comparatively fewer targets to hit compared to Ukraine, and they also have the advantage that they have all of their targets within weapons range.
Whereas Ukraine can only tap out to just beyond 1 000km.

So, if Russia concentrated their relatively few missiles and drones on Ukrainian infrastructure they could potentially achieve a higher degree of destruction as counted in percentage of national output.
But, Russia is fond of attacking civilians, toilets, bus stops, etcetera, so they do not grasp that one advantage that they have.

For Russia their targetting is aimed at terror, and not military strategic longterm goals.
This is good in a way, horrible for the population obviously, but good for the war longterm.

It is also pointing towards a big problem for Russia.
They like to portray that they are producing endless amounts of stuff, but why then are we not seeing that on this particular part of the war?
If even half of what Russia states they are producing was really produced the would be able to fire off around 200 shaheeds per day, and around 100 missiles of different types.

As it is now they barely are able to respond, and this after months of hording stuff.
Things are not as stated, and let us leave it at that.

Ukraine on the other hand have received a lot of money from EU to increase drone and missile production inside of Ukraine, and that is now finally starting to pay off.
Ukraine is now set to hit more targets, deeper inside Russia.
The attacks into Russia is increasing on a logarithmic scale, and will continue to do so.

The effects of this will not be so noticeable during the summer, but I would really not want to be a Russian come winter this year.
Last winter will be a breeze to what is coming this upcoming winter.

Fontlines
Something good seems to be happening unexpectedly fast.
Russia has ordered their frontline commanders to husband their heavy equipment hard due to "supply issues".
Currently there is a hard limit on how many BMP/BTRs that they can use during attacks, and a smaller limitation on what type of, and how many tanks they can use per month.

They still obviously have quite a lot, but they are citing supply issues with replacements, and talking about fewer arriving from now on.
This tracks with sat imagery of their depots in Russia, we see fewer and fewer being removed now as those that are sent to be spruced up are in such a bad shape that it takes far longer to fix them up into running order.

The result on the frontline is increased usage of the golf carts.
Next we expect to see a gradual decrease of supplied artillery systems, this is judged from withdrawal rates of systems in the artillery depts.

We can finally say that we have reached peak Russian equipment, and that from now on they will be on the decline."
.
 
Can I ask for your opinion then In simplistic terms ?
So do we think their will be an end with one side claiming "victory " at any time
What would that look like ?
Who is likely to "win" at this point do you think
Are you able to forecast ahead in a basic kind of 70/30 split answer based on what you guys know now.
 
Can I ask for your opinion then In simplistic terms ?
So do we think their will be an end with one side claiming "victory " at any time
What would that look like ?
Who is likely to "win" at this point do you think
Are you able to forecast ahead in a basic kind of 70/30 split answer based on what you guys know now.

I don't know about "soon" as that is kind of subjective anyway.
But I do think that, in "the end" (pardon the phrase) Russia will lose ... and I think that's a near certainty because, militarily speaking, they have already lost ... the leadership are simply dragging things out because they have self-interest and self-preservation as their primary motivation. They simply want to avoid the Hague/prison/losing their wealth and privilege. I do think that there is a core in government (led by Patrushev) who are ideologically committed to the greater, neo-soviet dream. Making Russia great again.

The fact of the matter is that they are now faced with a Europe that is gearing up to make sure that Russia is defeated. Some of those countries are a bit more gung ho than others.

How will it look? Revolution or palace coup is my guess. Snakes in a barrel.
With pogroms taking place now, angry Babushkas already vocal, and looming fuel shortages, I think things are going to get quite difficult for the regime domestically.
 
Can I ask for your opinion then In simplistic terms ?
So do we think their will be an end with one side claiming "victory " at any time
What would that look like ?
Who is likely to "win" at this point do you think
Are you able to forecast ahead in a basic kind of 70/30 split answer based on what you guys know now.
Whenever it ends on UKR terms is probably the definitive answer. What will it look like - UKR in control of its sovereign pre 2014 sovereign borders, with a sterilised zone within a significant chunk of mother Ruzzi bordering UKR.

Even then if the current Ruzzian regime is still "in charge" on the bad guys side they will also be claiming a victory defined by whatever pops into their heads at that point in time.

Its a long way off yet though

But remember to mark down now that in the losers column after the Ruzzians the USA will be pretty high up the list as well.
 
An example as to how it's going for Russia, the RFF have now entered southern Bilhorod city ... basically they are going to take over the city.
This happening now.

This isn't a field here or there, or a ruined small town. It's a Russian oblast capital.

This after they've lost another 3 ships from the Black Sea Fleet this week, got into a spat with a branch of ISIS and seen European troops setting up camp from Romania up to Estonia.
 
Did people see the documentary in the forest on BBC2 on Monday?
One called the invaders 'faggots' every times, another said he felt no conscience killing them with drones after what he said they'd done to Ukrainian people
But the one that stood out was the one who said he enjoyed seeing their flesh explode , called them 'orcs' (not that unusual), cajoled another to say he didn't care about killing them - and when they brought in 2 prisoners he said they'd be handed over for questioning. Yet he said he'd have killed them, but wasn't allowed (on the front?)
From reports I've read in the MSM many Ukrainians feel all Russians are to be hated
Just wondered if tank girl and your mate feel the same towards all the invaders and Russians in general as some of them?
 
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Did people see the documentary in the forest on BBC2 on Monday?
One called the invaders 'faggots' every times, another said he felt no conscience killing them with drones after what he said they'd done to Ukrainian people
But the one that stood out was the one who said he enjoyed seeing their flesh explode , called them 'orcs' (not that unusual), cajoled another to say he didn't care about killing them - and when they brought in 2 prisoners he said they'd be handed over for questioning. Yet he said he'd have killed them, but wasn't allowed (on the front?)
From reports I've read in the MSM many Ukrainians feel all Russians are to be hated
Just wondered if tank girl and your mate feel the same towards all the invaders and Russians in general as some of them?
I saw that documentary and thought it was powerful but desperate.

Mixing bombs in the kitchen, heading out early in the snow with a drone to deliver them and seeing your comrade shot by an unseen enemy whilst standing next to you.

What sort of world do we live in?
 
I don't know about "soon" as that is kind of subjective anyway.
But I do think that, in "the end" (pardon the phrase) Russia will lose ... and I think that's a near certainty because, militarily speaking, they have already lost ... the leadership are simply dragging things out because they have self-interest and self-preservation as their primary motivation. They simply want to avoid the Hague/prison/losing their wealth and privilege. I do think that there is a core in government (led by Patrushev) who are ideologically committed to the greater, neo-soviet dream. Making Russia great again.

The fact of the matter is that they are now faced with a Europe that is gearing up to make sure that Russia is defeated. Some of those countries are a bit more gung ho than others.

How will it look? Revolution or palace coup is my guess. Snakes in a barrel.
With pogroms taking place now, angry Babushkas already vocal, and looming fuel shortages, I think things are going to get quite difficult for the regime domestically.
Thank you boro lad
..spot on summary ..appreciate it
 
Whenever it ends on UKR terms is probably the definitive answer. What will it look like - UKR in control of its sovereign pre 2014 sovereign borders, with a sterilised zone within a significant chunk of mother Ruzzi bordering UKR.

Even then if the current Ruzzian regime is still "in charge" on the bad guys side they will also be claiming a victory defined by whatever pops into their heads at that point in time.

Its a long way off yet though

But remember to mark down now that in the losers column after the Ruzzians the USA will be pretty high up the list as well.
Thank you decent left very informative
 
Did people see the documentary in the forest on BBC2 on Monday?
One called the invaders 'faggots' every times, another said he felt no conscience killing them with drones after what he said they'd done to Ukrainian people
But the one that stood out was the one who said he enjoyed seeing their flesh explode , called them 'orcs' (not that unusual), cajoled another to say he didn't care about killing them - and when they brought in 2 prisoners he said they'd be handed over for questioning. Yet he said he'd have killed them, but wasn't allowed (on the front?)
From reports I've read in the MSM many Ukrainians feel all Russians are to be hated
Just wondered if tank girl and your mate feel the same towards all the invaders and Russians in general as some of them?

I know that my mate doesn't hate all Russians and that he is, by nature, a humanist. But he has a "this has to be done" outlook on it. In order to do some of the things he does, ie. arranging the deaths of a lot of people, including incidental deaths of his own troops, he adopts his rather "glib" way of looking and talking about it. He's go mad if he didn't. At the root of it is some degree of "objectification" of the enemy. They are a thing that needs to be dealt with. It makes me uncomfortable at times... but I can't really criticise him for it. He's doing a job that I couldn't do. And I really believe that it needs to be done .... for all our sakes. I also known that, culturally, the Soviets/Russian state has been his enemy since he was a kid growing up. And they have been a background enemy in several of the wars he has been involved with before .... Balkans, Central Africa, Chechnya etc. So he really does have a hatred for Putin's mobsters and all that they represent.

I can't speak for Tank Girl, but I suspect that she is more given to hatred and the kind of anti-russina sentiment you talk about given the fact that her husband and child were killed horribly in front of her and she saw her home city (Donetsk) occupied by an invading neighbour that behaved appallingly. And she is, on a daily basis, seeing soldiers from her army, who she cares about, being blown up. She is, ethnically and linguistically, Russian remember. She is the only one of her extended family (that was left) on the Ukrainian side.

I think that, culturally, there's probably more of that kind of derogatory and divisive language in that part of the world, where racism and homophobia, for instance, have not been "de-normalised" in the same way as they have here. So the terms Katsapps and Orcs are pretty freely used. This is probably also a war thing. If you are in the business of killing people, de-personalising them helps.

As the philosopher Karl Jaspers said "The schlerosis of objectivity is the annihilation of existence".
 
Seeing a mate getting blown up or losing a family member to war must awaken primal hatred in the vast majority of us. I know I'd be desperate for revenge.

Which is why I guess in some of the drone footage where a after a hit on an individual who is clearly badly injured they're often finished off.

Militarily surely it's better to leave them to either bleed out, wait for another target to come to aid or for the individual to be a drain on the state needing long term care with a sorry tale to take back home?
 
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