The end?

A hard thing to swallow, but my mate points to Cameron rather than Sunak, as our most realistic and statesmanlike figure on the war.

Anyway, a couple of interesting snippets from yesterday, and an explanation of the ZNPP story that you probably won't find elsewhere.

"APVs
I guess that most have seen the clip of Russia using a T72 as an Armoured Personel Carrier (APV).
A tank does not have a lot of real estate to sit on, and normally you have at most 3 soldiers sitting on the back of one due to infantrymen being lasy and hitching a ride, even though it is not really that safe.

So, if you see a tank with no less than 24 people on and in it, something is really off.
At least at that spot of the frontline there's so few APVs that the commander duct-taped soldiers on top, and stuck infantry inside of it, and most likely the only tanker was the driver.
Basically they used it as a means to drive the infantry to the point of attack.
It then hit a mine, and cluster shells made short order of the Russian soldiers.

If you see something like this, it is a sign of deep desperation.
A tank and 24 people are an extremely valuable target, and an extremely expensive vehicle lacking the ability to fight as a tank.

On its own it would be a joke but, put together with similarly overburdened APVs, golf carts, buhankas, ladas, and so on...
It points towards Russia rapidly running out of APVs, and this is the greatest evidence so far that Russia is indeed starting to run out of viable gear.

Grinding
Two days ago Russia lost 18 tanks, 54 APVs, 54 pieces of artillery and a whopping 75 other vehicles.
This was brough on by the high rate of shells arriving, and the high amount of drones.

Russia lost half a years production of artillery, and 1 months production of APVs in a single day.
And since Russia is currently not producing new tanks that is an infinite amount of production time in tanks.
Well, you catch my drift...

14 months ago when I started to talk about November being when Russia would be in **** creek on equipment everyone laughed at me.
Now people are not laughing at me since the signs are clear for all to see at this point in time.
Zyrskyi being a pragmatist is therefore since some time ago doubling down on the grinding part, and is squashing every idea of doing other things.

Anyway, any day with more than 40 arty's destroyed is a good day, a day with less than 30 is a bad day, and everything in between is business as usual.

Just short sidenote here, Bilhorod is still a thing, but due to Rasputitsa it is not going to go anywhere, but the city is still being shelled at a slow but steady pace.
I am still surprised about the Russian lacadaisical approach to it, but I guess they just can't scrounge up enough soldiers to defend here.

And, just as I suspected it still looks like the Russian Kharkiv offencive is not gonna happen.
They just do not have the equipment, nor the manpower for it.
But, Russians are a tad "special", so this does not mean that I will be correct forever about this.
I will just say that I hope they do it, since this would be the end of the Russian army.

Chasiv Yar
They are after all struggling with even getting into strike range of the forefront village of Chasiv Yar.
And behind that village and Chasiv Yar proper there is a big canal of Soviet origin, and Russia will truly struggle to get across that one.
And behind that canal there's the big defencive lines.

It is my opinion that it will take Russia anything between 1 to 4 months to set up thing properly to even attempt crossing the canal, and from that point on they will have quite a bit of job to do to grind through the defences and take Chasiv Yar.
It will take them at least 2024 to do it.
It is literally a bridge to far for them.

Enerhodar
First of all, all 6 reactors are inoperable and rendered safe.
So much so that they will probably never be restarted due to the cost to rebuild them into working order.
Each reactor core is completely slagged, and even without any cooling water the worst that can happen is that they slowly melt down into the safe containment below the reactors.
How I achieved this feat is something that I might tell if plied with a lot of beer, but not something I will ever write down.

Back to now.
Russia had started to stockpile crap on the grounds believing that they were safe after noticing that evil swedes are more or less gone from the area due to "the slagging".
And we couldn't just let them use it as a safe area.

So, after a lot of planning and tooth gnashing maps was made of what and where things could safely be hit, and the best drone operators was moved there to perform the strikes.
All went flawless, and there was never any great danger.
But, Russia being Russia, they chucked 3 hand grenades on top of one of the reactor buildings, and moved drone residue parts on top of said reactor and screamed bloody murder.

Note, the drones used was not fitted out with explosives that could damage the roof or walls of the reactor, just in case there was a lost signal or any other problem.
Even the IAEA was not that **** bothered about it, they just complained reflexively."

One day I will ply him with beers. I know what he and his unit did to make the ZNPP safe, I just don't know how."
 
Russia firing 10k shells a day compared to Ukraine 2k and making slow but steady advances
That's not sustainable
The elevated oil price means Russia has more to spend overseas and they have increased their own manufacturing capacity significantly.
EU contributions are just not enough
Without that US aid package it's not looking good.
 
zzzzz said:
Russia firing 10k shells a day compared to Ukraine 2k and making slow but steady advances
That's not sustainable
The elevated oil price means Russia has more to spend overseas and they have increased their own manufacturing capacity significantly.
EU contributions are just not enough
Without that US aid package it's not looking good.
Click to expand...

Not sure where you are getting that info.

Shells. Ukraine had, as of last week (situation even better now) 4.1 million shells available for 2024 (an average of over 11,000 per day).
They are also getting new, state of the art arty pieces from europe (150 in the coming weeks and then 50 per month going forward).
In fact last week, Ukraine outshelled Russia. Ukraine's systems also have better accuracy and range.

Ukraine are also ahead with drones (ratio 4:1) ... they have newer and better tech and the Russians have now been cut off from direct supplies of Chinese drone parts .... having now to smuggle them expensively through 3rd parties.
Did you see that low flying delta winged jet drone that Ukraine used this last week? Guess where that came from.

While Russia is able to sell crude at elevated prices, its income from refined products has fallen dramatically, as Budanov works through the refineries.

Yes, the US package would help (especially patriots), but the Ukraine military leadership do not expect it and have planned without it for some time. Europe will be filling most of that gap.
And, as you will have seen this week, the resolve from European partners has grown substantially. The RAF is now patrolling the Romanian border for instance.

Ukraine will most likely throttle back their use of shells as Rasputitsa halts most frontline activity (including Bilhorod). But they are still actively seeking Russian vehicles and hardware.

It is, most certainly, going to be a long grind though. Ukraine will continue to cede a field here and there, while degrading Russian equipment. Budanov will continue to degrade Russian oil, military industry and infrastructure ... it was a hack attack on underground infrastructure yesterday.... sewerage/cabling etc.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777709483549933921
 
The Power plant that has been totally destroyed is a huge blow for Ukraine (no pun intended), certainly the way things are going at the moment, it looks like Russia is getting further ahead in this war. Things are looking at bit bleak for Ukraine.
 
Nero80 said:
The Power plant that has been totally destroyed is a huge blow for Ukraine (no pun intended), certainly the way things are going at the moment, it looks like Russia is getting further ahead in this war. Things are looking at bit bleak for Ukraine.
Click to expand...

Most people expected Ukraine to fall in 3 days. 25 months on ....

Of course Ukraine will sustain blows. And good men/women will perish .... including this young man, who was one of my mate's SOG unit, who decided to stay on and fight for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778419272949100698


But those patriot systems will definitely help. It's the one area where the US help is being missed most .... patriot missiles.
 
borolad259 said:
And er,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778232043631002068

There are also a good number of winged daggers on the ground.
Click to expand...
Does your mate have any info/comment on this story? It sounds like one he might be particularly interested in.

Nato jets intercept Russian spy plane over Sweden

The strategic island of Gotland, lying between Latvia and Sweden, has been described as a “giant aircraft carrier” with Russian TV regularly identifying it as a target if Moscow were to invade the Baltic states.
Click to expand...
 
Liamo said:
Does your mate have any info/comment on this story? It sounds like one he might be particularly interested in.

Nato jets intercept Russian spy plane over Sweden
Click to expand...

They've been at it for several years now. He'll know all about it of course.
Russia has been sending planes, subs, landing craft.... all sorts... towards Gotland, testing the defences. It's pretty much their target number 1 in the baltic.
I'll ask him later what he thinks about a NATO interception (as opposed to Gripens).
 
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