Some "on the ground" update for you all. I've redacted some of it for obvious reasons.
"Russia
The floodings are striking hard, among the things gone is the Kurganmeshzavodsk, Russias main APC plant.
It is now 2.5 meters under water, and it is believed to take between 3-6 months to get back up and running by Western standards, but with sanctions and lack of manpower it might take considerably longer.
The KMZ produces 50ish of the BMP/BRTs per months, so as a minimum this means 150-300 APCs that will never be built, and with a rate of destruction of about 35 destroyed per day this is just an increase of the downward spiral for Russia.
In regards of the refineries that have been blown up.
The worst hit ones have started to fire their staff.
This sort of implies that Russia does not think they will ever be able to get them back up and running.
Que Happy Budanov Noises, this means that Ukraine over time has a real shot at dunking out all the fuel of Russia as more longrange drones come into play.
What Airdefence Doing?
A while ago the Russian government told the oil companies that they are on their own in regards of air defence systems, and that they have to get their own, and pay for them themselves.
Now, let us look aside to how weakened Russia must be to have to resort to that...
Let us instead ponder what happens when immensely wealthy companies are told that the army is not able to provide air defence systems and staff them, and that they have to get their own systems.
From where would they get those systems since all of them in Russia are guarding air bases and the frontlines in Ukraine?
After all, it is not like Rozneftegaz can order up some from the West.
Entire companies of AD has therefore just "dissappeared" from frontlines and bases as they have gone to guard the refineries etcetera, with their officers pocketing millions of dollars.
Nothing like good old corruption, what on Earth did they think would happen?
Ridonculouser
I wholeheartedly claim that this is a word, it sure does cover the next tidbit well.
The Russian Government have ordered the authorities in the border regions of Bilhorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov and Voronezh to arrange their own air defence, thank you very much.
Not being able to source that themselves, nor having the money to bribe generals with, they kicked the problem downwards.
So, there is now a new law in those regions ordering the local agro-business to bolt air defence systems to all farming equipment to shoot down drones.
Uhm... yeah you read that right, farmers will go to prison if they do not bolt down an "air defence system" on their tractors and combine harvesters, and staff said guns.
As you ponder a tractor with a bolted on Mosin-Nagant rifle on the roof with a dude manning it, out plowing endless fields... do you now understand why we need the word ridonculous?
Imagine that poor sap hanging on for dear life as the tractor slews from side to side spreading manure with a dude firing against ever more hightech drones going past on bombing runs?
Bilhorod
There's intercepted calls and data from the Russian side indicating that they are most impressed with the 52 percent lethality rate among themselves.
Local health care have broken down since all hospitals have been commandered in Bilhorod, Kursk, Bryansk to treat the wounded from the heavy ongoing battles.
Officially the Free Russians have left Bilhorod, inofficially not so much, and the artillery barrages and dronings continue nonstop.
The Free Russians have though been rotated out since they have been there the longest.
Other international brigades and battalions is now there fighting.
Among those is the Nordic Battalion constituting mostly of Swedes, many of them are my previous SOG boys that opted to stay.
Sadly one of my boys fell in battle about a week ago in the region.
Like all Swedish soldiers he is brought under honour guard by the 21st to Poltava to be buried there on sacred Swedish land, next to Camp Sweden.
The Nordic Battalion is seconded to the 21st for natural reasons.
Why is it sacred Swedish land?
Poltava is where the last serious attempt of Sweden to crush Russia ended, it was a close run affair, and in retrospect the world would have been a very different place if we had won that battle.
So, all Swedes that fall in Ukraine are now buried on the battlefield of Poltava to honour what has been.
Until 2 years ago we did not speak with foreigners about our aversion to Russia, to not look like raving loons, but history proved us right, we did indeed know our neighbour.
Anyway...
Fonts & Lackings
Let us start with Ukrainian "Lackings".
Regardless of what pundits and the US may believe, Ukraine is no longer lacking shells.
No, what is getting scarce is air defence, Ukraine need more systems and missiles, especially pressing is the need for 7 more Patriot Systems.
It can't be expressed what a difference that would make at this point in the war.
Yesterday the EU Parliamentarian got up and fired off the speech of this war.
It was fire and brimstone on a level not heard since "On the beaches", if not even more powerful.
He got the Parliament to refuse to send the EU Budget onwards to the Council unless the council transfers 7 Patriot Systems to Ukraine, basically deadlocking EU into acting.
The difference between EU and US has never been clearer, an overwhelming majority voted for this, and the 7 Patriot Systems are now top of the Agenda in Strasbourg, and will be sent.
And they say that there are no true leaders or politicians left, but that is not true, they are just all in Brussels...
14 billion euros! That's commitment.
(21) Guy Verhofstadt on X: "BREAKING — Parliament refuses discharge of the Council budget until European Council decided to support Ukraine with additional Patriot anti-missile systems ! https://t.co/zDvA4xyUct" / X (twitter.com)
Russian Lackings on the Fonts
Russia is still gaining about two fields per day in all of Ukraine.
There are roughly 35 000 fields remaining in Ukrainian hands in Eastern Ukraine, that means that at the going rate Russia will have taken everything East of Dniepro in 17 500 days, or in 48 years.
Ukraine is very big, remember that the next time people talk about Russian gains.
And each of those fields cost Russia an incredible amount of equipment and soldiers.
I normally state that Russia will never run out of soldiers, but that is not entirely true, they will do that in about 8 years at the going pace, and after that they will send the women...
And at that point Ukraine will be without soldiers too.
No, it is not soldiers that will win the war, it is heavy equipment and production of consumables.
Right now roughly 60 percent of Russias enormous stockpile of arms are used up, and the refurbishment and bringing back to life of old equipment is not keeping up with demand as it takes longer and longer time to fix stuff up.
And the Russian heavy equipment arms production is like putting lipstick on a nuclear powerplant to make it look sexy.
First, let me state that Russia still have enormous equipment resources in play in Ukraine, but they are now well on the gliding slope downwards.
And that is creating more and more interesting "Lackings" locally along the frontline.
There is a general lack of APCs, but Russia are so far able to solve that somewhat by being creative.
They strap more soldiers to what the APCs they have, and use tanks increasingly as APCs.
And when that is not enough they use Buhankas (Scooby Doo vans), chinese golf carts, and civilian cars and motorcycles.
We see this along the entirety of the frontline now, so it is probably the part of the equipment ladder that is having the heaviest toll now on Russian combat power.
In regards of tanks we can deduce that Russia still have enough of them to use them as makeshift APCs like this.
But, now and then small parts of the frontline run out of them, right now they are transfering in new ones at Avdiivka due to all of them being expended.
We are now starting to see a spreading lack of artillery on almost all sectors of the frontline.
Where there should be four pieces, there are 1 or 2, and we also see places entirely without them for short durations until new ancient systems are brought in.
Most often this bringing in is done fairly rapidly to avoid Ukraine taking advantage of it.
But, now we have seen an entire sector run out of artillery systems for 48 hours.
And we are not talking about some backwater place, no we are talking about Avdiivka.
Russia sent in several massive tank-APC meat charges in this direction, completely out of both artillery and air support.
Those massive attacks was mercilessly crushed by Ukrainian artillery and waves of drones.
The reason was that there was not a single piece of artillery, nor a single Air Defence System.
And without air defence the Russian air force will not fly.
In the end Russia ran out of both tanks and APC on top of the missing artillery and air defences.
So, during the last 24 of those 48 hours Russia just sent wave after wave of running Russians, aided by a few Buhankas and golf carts.
This came so unexpectedly that Ukraine did not have the time to swing in enough heavy units to take the full advantage of the collapsed frontline.
The reason is that it was unexpected, and also that this is Rasputitsa and the Sector Commanders have sent their heavy stuff back for servicing and reconstitutions.
Let us just say that Tank Girl exploded at the news of this missed opportunity.
She ripped a new interestingly placed hole to defecate out of in Every general in Eastern Ukraine.
She got away with it due to being absolutely and 100 percent correct, you just can't make such mistakes during a war.
Now everyone understands that she will personally strangle each commander that is not ready to counter-punch on the fly from now on, and changes are being made.
Thankfully the damage done was small, and we are fairly certain that new opportunities like this will happen again at a slowly increasing rate, and next time the other generals will be ready for it.
Anyway, my point is that these "lackings" will multiply ever so slowly from now on.
And those traded fields are meaningless for Russia in the end, all that is needed is a big "Lackings" to happen at a good spot for an offensive, and fields will fall back extremely profusely and rapidly.
After all, that is why we are grinding away at a steady pace, to create those lackings, one after another.
And all we in Europe need to do is to hang on and produce more and more consumables and weapons, while applying pressure politically and by showing the Will to Fight.
Camp *******
More and more videos are coming out of Parachutistes from The French Foreign Legion gliding around looking incredibly deadly and competent, and somehow there are more of them than ever before.
There's also an increasing number of Winged Dagger dudes together with Dagger & Parachute emblems drinking tea and eating mint sauce.
The Sword & Star guys missed the memo and thought the directions said that they should go to Poltava...
Somehow the Winged Arrows also meandered into Camp Sweden grumbling about the lack of proper White and Blue flags.
And finally the Winged Parachute Daggers are eating pasta East of Odesa, Odesan ladies are most impressed with them as they walk about here.
Theres more of them, but these are for now the most numerous detachments.
And nobody is surprised that the Swedes and Finns misplaced themselves in Poltava due to its holy status in our countries.
The Combined Armies of Finland-Sweden in Poltava... pure historic importance sniffles...
Also, it is highly likely that the Russians will just think they are new versions of Tank Girl's boys since they flew Swedish flags since day one and named their camp into Camp Sweden as a thank you to Sweden for the gear and training.
A few from the Baltics showed up in Camp ***** and asked where the Finns and Swedes was, and hearing where they had gone they swore and diverted themselves to Poltava.
Oh, I forgot...
Over at Lviv there are some impressive Grunting Kurwa Noises emanating, there's supposedly some dutch intermingled into that mix together with various Belgian languages.
Still just the vanguard, but it is slowly increasing now.
The big units will constitute in Romania, and drive in that way.
Well, except the Poles that are of the opinion that they have a better border to cross.
And, there's now 200 RAF personel in Romania together with 5 Typhoon's performing air policing of Western Black Sea.
The Russians just sighed depressedly and moved over as some suspicious Dagger with 2 Blue Wave dudes set up shop in those gas platforms in the middle of the Sea to eat sandwiches with Sallad Cream and some Spotted d*ck with their tea.
I heard that the Union Jack is looking quite impressive from those platforms.
Russia no like, but Russia staying the hell away from them now, after all those platforms are on international waters, and as such it is up to whomever wish to create a mini-nation on them.
After all, someone did that to UK and set up a principality on one of their abandoned air defence platforms.
Political pressure, and showing of will, it goes a long way to slowly press Russia back.
And yes, there are now AWACS flying there, in what is increasingly becoming Free Nato Waters.
Much Sad Russia Noises are thusly produced."
