COVID Plan C

Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants said:
Ferguson has got quite a lot right. Just most people don’t understand that because they’ve never read the scientific papers relating to the modelling. The press run with sensational headlines which often are misleading and the articles lack details.
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He really hasn’t. If you divert your attention away from the mainstream media you might see what is actually going on.
 
uncle_rico said:
He really hasn’t. If you divert your attention away from the mainstream media you might see what is actually going on.
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Exactly this. His "modelling" on foot and mouth, swine flu and covid have all been totally inaccurate. It is funny that JRDC claims he's just misunderstood rather than incompetent
 
Ted_DN38416 said:
Exactly this. His "modelling" on foot and mouth, swine flu and covid have all been totally inaccurate. It is funny that JRDC claims he's just misunderstood rather than incompetent
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JRDC would also do well to ask the families of farmers who lost everything and those families of farmers and farm workers who killed themselves, their opinions on Ferguson's models.

If I remember correctly wasn't he sacked as an advisor after his late night shenanigans with a married woman whilst under lockdown?
 
flu is more transmissible in winter so you would think Covid would be too. I vaguely remember reading it was something to do with humidity? But I may have that well wrong
 
Randy said:
Covid isn't seasonal. We've been told that repeatedly since the early days.

Also fixed your post.

Also the PM statement is pre recorded so it'll more than likely be a booster jab advert.
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So does transmission increase when indoors? I never said it was seasonal but winter us worse because of being indoors
the_holgate_roof said:
I thought it was more transmissibility in winter as more people are in indoor venues rather than being outside.
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Pre-recorded message, must be about the boosters, maybe even extending them to anyone who’s had the double vax and enough time between the last?
 
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I dare say those who’ve never done any sort of modelling won’t understand. There are time framed for those predictions with upper and lower predictions. I dare say most of you believe the attached screenshot without ever understanding what was modelled and time frames involved.

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Randy said:
JRDC would also do well to ask the families of farmers who lost everything and those families of farmers and farm workers who killed themselves, their opinions on Ferguson's models.

If I remember correctly wasn't he sacked as an advisor after his late night shenanigans with a married woman whilst under lockdown?
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You are aware that the principle lessons from the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak were that the authorities didn't go hard enough, fast enough partly due to a lack of sufficient veterinary resources to handle the outbreak. Additionally there was considerable criticism that it took 4 days to impose a nationwide animal movement ban further aiding the spread of the disease.
 
TheYorkshireTerrier said:
Pre-recorded message, must be about the boosters, maybe even extending them to anyone who’s had the double vax and enough time between the laser?
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I mean the timing of it has nothing to do with Tuesday's vote on plan B does it? No. Johnson isn't that clever is he? Funny, on the subject of Johnson I saw a clever question that's yet to be asked of him and his government regarding these Xmas parties and lockdown get togethers. What evidence have they seen that makes it ok for some of the most important and powerful people in the country to get together and socialise?
 
chickenrunner said:
You are aware that the principle lessons from the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak were that the authorities didn't go hard enough, fast enough partly due to a lack of sufficient veterinary resources to handle the outbreak. Additionally there was considerable criticism that it took 4 days to impose a nationwide animal movement ban further aiding the spread of the disease.
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I think the principle lesson from 2002 should have been never to believe a word that comes out of Neil Ferguson's mouth because he is full of ****. But hey ho. I quote...

Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.

So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?
 
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