COVID Plan C

You haven’t looked at any of the predicted scenarios for detail have you?

The covid one for instance was a modelled prediction based on 500k deaths over a 2 year period with no restrictions or interventions of any sort.
We’re at around 170000 with interventions. I don’t think it would have been far off.
 
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants said:
You haven’t looked at any of the predicted scenarios for detail have you?

The covid one for instance was a modelled prediction based on 500k deaths over a 2 year period with no restrictions or interventions of any sort.
We’re at around 170000 with interventions. I don’t think it would have been far off.
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So explain why SAGE are on one hand saying modelling for potential Omicron cases is based off of data from South Africa but then when doctors in South Africa are telling the world it isn't as bad as first feared we are told it's too early to tell. Can't have it both ways.
 
Randy said:
I think the principle lesson from 2002 should have been never to believe a word that comes out of Neil Ferguson's mouth because he is full of ****. But hey ho. I quote...

Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .
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The was no such prediction, completely made up. Fewer than 200 deaths?? There were none. The transference of foot and mouth from animals to humans is extremely rare and deaths even rarer.
 
Randy said:
So explain why SAGE are on one hand saying modelling for potential Omicron cases is based off of data from South Africa but then when doctors in South Africa are telling the world it isn't as bad as first feared we are told it's too early to tell. Can't have it both ways.
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Modelling has to have some assumptions until you get data coming through. Most SA cases have been in younger people who are healthier than your average joe in the uk. Until there is data for different age ranges, vaxxed and unvaxxed etc in substantial numbers nothing should be taken for granted. The band was from 25k to 75k predicted deaths depending on what data come through.
 
Randy said:
I think the principle lesson from 2002 should have been never to believe a word that comes out of Neil Ferguson's mouth because he is full of ****. But hey ho. I quote...

Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.

So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?
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I mean just using the bold as an example - there is nothing contradictory in that statement. A worst-case scenario can be 65k deaths and the end result can be 457. That isn't a 'wrong prediction', it's just that the end result was on the optimistic end of the projections.
 
Again. Can't have it both ways. Either SAGE are the be all and end all and doctors in South Africa (aswell as other countries in the world) are liars or SAGE are incorrect, which wouldn't be the first time, and the doctors on the front lines in South Africa are correct.
 
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Randy said:
Again. Can't have it both ways. Either SAGE are the be all and end all and doctors in South Africa are liars or SAGE are incorrect, which wouldn't be the first time, and the doctors on the front lines in South Africa are correct.
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What don’t you get that there isn’t enough data covering all age ranges and health distributions? That's why assumptions are made. Then the data gets fed back into the model, that tightens up the prediction.
 
I notice SA have just posted their latest data, cases not flatling, still rocketing. There were reports from SA yesterday and the day before saying they had peaked 🤣. IT error blamed. The decent scientists on twitter said something was wrong with the data. The usual suspects cried it was tailing off already.
 
These are the 'Walk in centres' for Teesside this week - So basically WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY - what a farce


NEW*Wednesday 15th December, MIDDLESBROUGH, Newport Community Hub, St Pauls Road, TS1 5NQ, 10am-6pm

First & second doses & boosters

NEW*Wednesday 15th December, REDCAR, Redcar and Cleveland College, Corporation Rd, Redcar TS10 1EZ, 10am – 5pm

First & second doses, boosters

Wednesday 15th December, STOCKTON, Unit 5, Wellington Square, TS18 1NA, 1pm – 5:30pm

First & second doses & boosters

NEW* Saturday 18th December, HARTLEPOOL, Mill House Leisure Centre Car Park, Raby Rd, TS24 8AR, 9am – 5pm

First & second doses Pfizer, Moderna, AZ & Covid boosters

NEW* Saturday 18th December, STOCKTON, SPLASH, Church Rd, Stockton-on-Tees TS18 1TY, 9am – 5pm

First & second doses Pfizer & boosters

Saturday 18th December, STOCKTON, Unit 5, Wellington Square, TS18 1NA, 1pm – 5:30pm

First & second doses & boosters
 
Mr Zahawi also confirmed the first hospitalisations from the variant in the UK, warning that the the variant is "so infectious, it will seek [unvaccinated people] out".
 
the_holgate_roof said:
Mr Zahawi also confirmed the first hospitalisations from the variant in the UK, warning that the the variant is "so infectious, it will seek [unvaccinated people] out".
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Neglecting to mention they were more than likely in hospital for other reasons than covid.

Anyways this is it every winter now isn't it? "Get your Pfizer/Moderna jab to keep your passport up to date."
"You can't afford it?" "Oh well sorry until you can you will be classed as a threat". 😎
 
Maybe because they don't work?? Have a look at Scotland and Wales for proof.
Seeing as most people in this country have received the Astrazeneca vaccine which apparently does not work against this new variant what would be the point of a vaccine passport??
 
magic said:
Maybe because they don't work?? Have a look at Scotland and Wales for proof.
Seeing as most people in this country have received the Astrazeneca vaccine which apparently does not work against this new variant what would be the point of a vaccine passport??
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Where does it say AZ doesn’t work?? It is more to with vaccine protection waning, meaning an urgent booster requirement.
Also if that was the case, then surely lockdown would be the more appropriate response.
 
the_holgate_roof said:
Where does it say AZ doesn’t work?? It is more to with vaccine protection waning, meaning an urgent booster requirement.
Also if that was the case, then surely lockdown would be the more appropriate response.
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Johnson said two vaccines wasn't enough. So when they were originally rolled out he lied.
Fast forward 12 months and whoever the prime minister is at the time will be telling us three jabs isn't enough. And repeat.
 
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