If form over the last 10 games continues

[Oooo]

need to get our ppg back over 2

 

[Left_peg]

need to get our ppg back over 2

We'll need to win the next 3 on the spin to do that

 

[Oooo]

no problem

 

[BoroMart]

I like both bits of analysis - BoroMart's and this - as they help contextualise really well.
Sadly I think the defeat at Brizzle ended any hopes of 2nd for a number of reasons.
I'd still be happy with a Play Off chance given where we were.

Yes, I'd be happy with a play off spot too, particularly with us having very good form against the other top half sides

 

[UTB70]

So our next 4 away games we need at least 8 or 9pts to maintain 2pts average. Tough ask on current away form id predict 7 pts max but would be reasonably happy with that, we would need to win probs all remaining home games though.

 

[Left_peg]

Win on Tuesday and we stay at 1.9 PPG whereas Sheff United will drop to 1.8.
Huddersfield need to lose 2 on the bounce to drop below 2 PPG, Bournemouth will probably go to 2.1 PPG on Tuesday when they play Peterbrough, Forest will likely go above 2 PPG on Tuesday too

 

[breakthewallsdown]

I'd be disappointed if we finish below Huddersfield

 

[Left_peg]

I'd be disappointed if we finish below Huddersfield

They just keep churning out results though, they've quietly gone about things while all the other contenders have been talked about. They could quite conceivably go up automatically

 

[Middlesbrough123]

I don’t feel wel finish below shieffield or Huddersfield so, that makes me feel 2nd isn’t out if our reach completely . Obviously we need to go on a massive winning run , start doing that now and wel soon run out of games .

 

[Starbuck]

Need to get 24 points from last 12 games to get in Play-offs

 

[BoroMart]

Need to get 24 points from last 12 games to get in Play-offs

2 points a game would be 79 points. Only once in 30 years has it been 79 or more points to reach the play offs.

There are a lot of top sides having to play each other coming up, which will drop their points per game ratio.

I would think we would be massively unlucky to not reach play offs with say 75 points. 6 wins and 2 or 3 draws in 12 is achievable and should be enough.

 

[Left_peg]

Team	Current Points	PPG last 10	games remaining	projected end points
Fulham	77	2.3	10	100
Bournemouth	65	1.9	12	87.8
Huddersfield	63	2.2	9	82.8
Forest	55	2.1	11	78.1
Luton	57	1.9	10	76
Sheff United	57	1.8	10	75
MIllwall	54	2.1	10	75
QPR	59	1.2	10	71
Boro	56	1.4	10	70
Blackpool	51	1.8	10	69
Coventry	54	1.4	10	68
Blackburn	58	0.9	9	66.1
Preston	51	1.5	9	64.5
Cardiff	43	1.7	9	58.3
West Brom	50	0.8	10	58
Swansea	44	1.2	11	57.2
Stoke	46	0.8	10	54
Bristol City	43	1	9	52
Birmingham	41	1	9	50
Hull	38	0.9	9	46.1
Reading	29	0.7	10	36
Barnsley	25	1.1	10	36
Derby	24	1	9	33
Peterbrough	23	0.3	10	26

 

[Left_peg]

Boro projected to drop to 9th by season end based on current form. Huddersfield maintaining good form and momentum seems to be with Forest. Millwall in good form too.

Relegation places look tight, could come down to goal difference

 

[indeedido]

Team	Current Points	PPG last 10	games remaining	projected end points
Fulham	77	2.3	10	100
Bournemouth	65	1.9	12	87.8
Huddersfield	63	2.2	9	82.8
Forest	55	2.1	11	78.1
Luton	57	1.9	10	76
Sheff United	57	1.8	10	75
MIllwall	54	2.1	10	75
QPR	59	1.2	10	71
Boro	56	1.4	10	70
Blackpool	51	1.8	10	69
Coventry	54	1.4	10	68
Blackburn	58	0.9	9	66.1
Preston	51	1.5	9	64.5
Cardiff	43	1.7	9	58.3
West Brom	50	0.8	10	58
Swansea	44	1.2	11	57.2
Stoke	46	0.8	10	54
Bristol City	43	1	9	52
Birmingham	41	1	9	50
Hull	38	0.9	9	46.1
Reading	29	0.7	10	36
Barnsley	25	1.1	10	36
Derby	24	1	9	33
Peterbrough	23	0.3	10	26

Its no more definitive than the equivalent version when we were in form, but it is now without doubt that we need to address our form, which is poor.

We got fractionally more ppg in the 25 matches we played before Connolly and Balogun made their debut than we have since, including Warnock's 17 matches.
Wilder's results and ppg were much better before signing the two strikers, despite the stuttering start.

 

[Left_peg]

It just gives an indication of trends in the data. There has been big fluctuations in things over the last few games. The 6 pointers will have a big effect on it

 

[BoroMart]

It just gives an indication of trends in the data. There has been big fluctuations in things over the last few games. The 6 pointers will have a big effect on it

the 6 pointers will be coming thick and fast too. Pretty much every Bournemouth game is a six pointer from here on in

 

[allied_assault]

Our strikers need to start finding the back of the net otherwise we will miss out

 

[Left_peg]

I think we need to take around 18 points from the last 10 games

 

[Massimo's Header]

I think this type of analysis is interesting, but forget last 10 games the bigger issue is our Away form.
Over the season we're the second in the Home Table (behind Fulham) but we're 17th in the Away Table.
We've got 5 Away games left and 4 against bottom half teams.
We need to forget Barnsley and Bristol City and win a couple of these away games. That with our Home Form should get us 18 points and a place in the Play-offs.

 

[Middlesbrough123]

An away point and clean sheet isn’t a bad start before the Birmingham game . Beat Birmingham and we’re all looking up again