Keir Starmer - FoM now a red-line

[MolteniArcore]

A half-decent left-wing manifesto would do wonders to reset the balance and the vast majority would get behind it in principle.

I'd like one but I'd think it would be a risk in the current climate. A left wing manifesto could cause the press to come out with slurs like 'Corbyn Mk 2' and it wouldn't take much of that to start bringing the polls closer.

A clean break from the Tories and the previous leader in the eyes of the media and public is what will win the next election.

I know the main anti-Starmer on here will say I'm a fool for thinking it but I do hope that if Labour win when they campaign for a second term we see more left leaning policies in the manifesto. The second term would be when these kind of policies could be enacted anyway - first term would be about just cleaning up the mess.

 

[JackG]

No, the members decide and >50% voted for Starmer in a 3-horse race, because they wanted a candidate who could win, given the press and people we have, which we can't change.

Normally winning is a better strategy than losing.

Did lying his ar$e off play no part?

 

[SuperStu]

I'd like one but I'd think it would be a risk in the current climate.

There'll never be a climate when it's not a risk.

I know the main anti-Starmer on here will say I'm a fool for thinking it but I do hope that if Labour win when they campaign for a second term we see more left leaning policies in the manifesto.

Won't say you're a fool for hoping this will happen. I hope so too.

The trouble is, as I've said before on this thread, if you're a person who takes past outcomes into consideration when trying to think what might happen in future, we know it's extremely unlikely.

To me it's similar to hoping Boro win the champions league 2025. It's technically possible. All we have to do is get promoted this year, finish top 4 in the premier league next year and beat teams like PSG and Real Madrid the year after that. But knowing the clubs history as we do, I doubt any of us are thinking about booking hotels in Munich for the final.

 

[Laughing]

There'll never be a climate when it's not a risk.



Won't say you're a fool for hoping this will happen. I hope so too.

The trouble is, as I've said before on this thread, if you're a person who takes past outcomes into consideration when trying to think what might happen in future, we know it's extremely unlikely.

To me it's similar to hoping Boro win the champions league 2025. It's technically possible. All we have to do is get promoted this year, finish top 4 in the premier league next year and beat teams like PSG and Real Madrid the year after that. But knowing the clubs history as we do, I doubt any of us are thinking about booking hotels in Munich for the final.

If you want to take past outcomes into the equation when wad the last time a labour party with socialist policies win a majority? Before Wilson that's for sure. Corbyn tried socialist policies and lost 2 elections.

It would be a huge gamble for starmer to adopt socialist policies.

One more tory term and we lose the nhs and our education system.

The world has changed since the 1940s.

 

[Andy_W]

I said a Tory manifesto, not the Tory manifesto. Big difference. Many versions of Tory, some of them far more moderate than others.

Don't be fooled into thinking there are more right leaning people than left. You will find they only tolerate the right because the majority of them are fully supportive of socialist policies like the NHS, education, police, fire, road and rail infrastructure. Take away them like the true right want and they'd have no voters.

The battle ground is really around who pays for things and there are far fewer people that are net contributors than are net receivers. All that needs to be done is convince people which side they are on and for people to vote for the side that actually benefits them. That's a far better option than becoming indistinguishable from the opposition.

Yes, some are far more moderate, but the problem is that Labour lost the last two elections to the worst ones I've ever known, certainly since being able to vote. Brexit started a fire, an uprising in the hate, and all the recent problems have added fuel to this. To be fair though, I think Sunak will be more moderate than the last 2 Tory PM's, as he will have to be to get some votes back, and he won't want to make the same mistakes, which should allow labour to be more "left" than some on here are probably expecting. We will see when the manifesto's come out.

People are strange, they support things like those you say, but then a lot of them have some really extreme far-right beliefs to go along with that, and they let the heart rule the head (media influenced of course). They're contradictory. Let's use the NHS example, I certainly do think a massive majority support the NHS, in public ownership, but a fair chunk of Tory voters think that because they have private healthcare, that they don't need it, which is obviously not true. The NHS will always be there, and hopefully will always be free when you walk in the door, but of course, it's not free when it comes to who is footing the overall bill (the taxpayer/ all tax income etc). Totally agree that taking all of those away, and making them all paid services at point of delivery would destroy the support for the right vote.

Totally agree on the contributers, the people who largely don't get value, also have private healthcare, so it makes their effective value even worse. They don't want anything to do with it, they would rather just POD, as they can afford it. Those that do get value (or at least good insurance in case they do) need the others to foot a lot of the bill, as it's not self-sustaining without that. There are a lot more people in the latter position though, so they need to stop voting Tory to keep it. The last thing we want is to go down the route of the USA. People in this country seem to like voting against their own interests, or for self-harm, they're too easily influenced by the far-right media, or don't get information from a balance of sources.

 

[MolteniArcore]

To me it's similar to hoping Boro win the champions league 2025. It's technically possible. All we have to do is get promoted this year, finish top 4 in the premier league next year and beat teams like PSG and Real Madrid the year after that. But knowing the clubs history as we do, I doubt any of us are thinking about booking hotels in Munich for the final.

I'd think it's more like an FA Cup win but I totally get your point!

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

People are strange, they support things like those you say, but then a lot of them have some really extreme far-right beliefs to go along with that, and they let the heart rule the head (media influenced of course). They're contradictory. Let's use the NHS example, I certainly do think a massive majority support the NHS, in public ownership, but a fair chunk of Tory voters think that because they have private healthcare, that they don't need it, which is obviously not true. The NHS will always be there, and hopefully will always be free when you walk in the door, but of course, it's not free when it comes to who is footing the overall bill (the taxpayer/ all tax income etc). Totally agree that taking all of those away, and making them all paid services at point of delivery would destroy the support for the right vote.

There's a tendency to look for simple answers to complex questions.

You only have to look at the asylum seeker issue at the moment and how the media plays that game. It's an incredibly nuanced and difficult issue but 'just send them back' is deemed a good answer to the question as though that's even remotely possible.

 

[Andy_W]

Ah right. So when the members voted for Starmer none of them were voting for the policies he was telling them he'd pursue? They all just liked him cause of some abstract notion of being a winner?

Ah, sorry, I didn't realise you had advanced access to the Labour and Tory manifestos, I must apologise.....not.

Like I've said a billion times, the world has changed, and the UK has changed drastically, if you don't move with that then you become massively out of touch. It's not early 2020, Labour won't be in power until 2025-2030, I want them to tackle the 2025-2030 problems as a priority, with an eye on 2030-2035, and I expect the policies in the manifesto will aim to do that, as well as cover some of the previous manifesto.

I didn't see Starmer mention any policies to help with 3 years of Covid, the energy crisis/ costs, high inflation, war in Ukraine, two new Tory PM's, maybe those don't matter to you, and you think they've had no impact, so they can be ignored?

 

[Andy_W]

Did lying his ar$e off play no part?

See post #564

He's got more support now than he even had during the leadership election, in members and polling, so my guess is people are happy that he's reacting to the current situation(s) and providing opposition to the Tories. You might call that lying, I call it being adaptable and not being able to predict the future.

 

[Andy_W]

We can vote Labour and get them elected but don’t think you can be involved in shaping the party

And if he keeps the status quo for 5 years some are already making excuses for the change to happen in the 2030’s

I mean, come on!

I wouldn’t count the chickens yet. The SNP is polling well in Scotland and so is independence. Starmer has absolutely ruled out any deal with the SNP

The party is broke, activists have left, membership is down something like 300,000 members (no matter what Andy says)

There’s about a 20 point gap between the Tories.

Reform will probably become more prominent - which may help Labour as the thinking is the Labour voters who drifter to Tories May drift to reform. Maybe around 10-20%

Reform are even ahead of the greens

And if anyone bothered to check any brief history of Labour Blair argued he would shift a little to the right and over time all society would feel the benefit but actually Labour started to have a stay at home problem where 5 million people stopped voting for them and it wasn’t until Corbyn that the votes improved to close to getting elected again

It sounds like rinse and repeat. But people won’t be as trusting this time, as gimmicks like that have a once only shelf life. People have memories

Btw, it’s starting to get media attention how Labour operate so maybe sidelining the left is not such a smart move

Politics in this country has never been so divided with the Welsh and Scottish national parties

The party will reflect who votes for it, nobody will get exactly what they want, but that's what happens in a two-party system. The centre carry more weight, and are more likely to shift position, so sometimes you need to give them a disproportionate amount, it's crap, but it's reality. If we had PR it would still be the same way, as we could end up with 5 parties wanting different things, and three would need to agree to get a majority or any policies through, so it would still mean having policies which cover beyond the centre.

Change will take a long time, it's proportional to the size of the hole you're in, and we're in a massive hole.

Labour membership is at around 432k, as per the August 22 report, over twice as many as the tories, and more than the rest put together (inc tories). Centrists and floating voters are less likely to become members, it's often the extremes of each party which become members (which doens't really reflect who is voting for them).



There's a massive gap now in the polls, but it may not be the case in two years time, this might be the deepest part of the hole, so to speak, by god I hope it is, even if it means that gap narrowing.

Reform will be massive, they will probably get ~4m votes, but probably won't get many seats.

Corbyn did get more voters to come out, but so did the Tories (anti-labour votes).

Hopefully lies and gimmicks no longer work, we need to go back to having more trust, lets see what the manifestos say, and how they're put info force.

The media are always going to ramp up on labour as the election looms, the left go against their own for not being left enough and the right (which is more of them) go against them as they want them to lose.

The tories and English ******* off the Welsh and Scottish isn't going to help either Labour or The Tories, but to be honest I hope the welsh and Scottish parties do get more seats, they should have more of a say.

 

[MolteniArcore]

The party is broke, activists have left, membership is down something like 300,000 members (no matter what Andy says)

I'm not so sure the party is broke. They received £4.7m the last quarter and that is more than any other party. The Tories only received £2.9m over the same period (July to September).

If this continues to the next election Labour will have a massive war chest compared to the Tory party.

(Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/indep...donations-drop-labour-overtakes-b2240038.html)

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

I'm not so sure the party is broke. They received £4.7m the last quarter and that is more than any other party. The Tories only received £2.9m over the same period (July to September).

If this continues to the next election Labour will have a massive war chest compared to the Tory party.

(Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/indep...donations-drop-labour-overtakes-b2240038.html)

Judging by yesterday's event they'll also receive more from business as the reality of them in power comes closer.

 

[Laughing]

Sounds like we’re at the kids table

Which is where you tend to hang out.

I wouldn’t count the chickens yet. The SNP is polling well in Scotland and so is independence. Starmer has absolutely ruled out any deal with the SNP

The party is broke, activists have left, membership is down something like 300,000 members (no matter what Andy says)

Labour don't need scotland but are polling higher than previously. They don't win scotland but do get more seats at the next election. The Labour party are 130k members down since corbyns peak, not 300k and higher than the lair membership. Not sure what this proves though.

Whilst they are showing a 5million deficit, that much is true, it's largely through redundancies and increased costs. To balance that out, Labour's income has gone up considerably since Corbyn. they raised 46 million last year, compared to the tory part 32million.

Nice spin though, I like it, no context, just cherry picking the facts to suite your argument, and we are the kids!

And basically the internal party structure looks corrupt, racist and like the Orborne video shows a metropolitan elite ruling hierarchy in the that abuses it’s power and has contempt for the people who vote for the and get the party elected

There may be some truth in this, I am not entirely convinced, but I am prepared to entertain the idea.

 

[Laughing]

Judging by yesterday's event they'll also receive more from business as the reality of them in power comes closer.

That is also true as membership contributions dropped. However, are business backing labour because they are offering closer ties with the EU and a better trading environment? I don't know but business in itself isn't bad, it is necessary.

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

That is also true as membership contributions dropped. However, are business backing labour because they are offering closer ties with the EU and a better trading environment? I don't know but business in itself isn't bad, it is necessary.

No, I think it's just because the expectation is that they will be in power.

 

[Laughing]

No, I think it's just because the expectation is that they will be in power.

That may also be the case. Either is just speculation though and there is probably some of both.

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

That may also be the case. Either is just speculation though and there is probably some of both.

The report I saw quoted a 'lobbyist' who said that the Tories had the stench of death about them which I thought was a bit harsh on Smalltown (joking!!).

 

[SuperStu]

Look guys the big donors are happy with the party, that must mean everythings going great! What's good for billionaires is good for us!

 

[Laughing]

The report I saw quoted a 'lobbyist' who said that the Tories had the stench of death about them which I thought was a bit harsh on Smalltown (joking!!).

I am sure there is some of that. However how many sme's are keen on closer alignment with the EU and that is their primary driver

 

[Nano]

I am sure there is some of that. However how many sme's are keen on closer alignment with the EU and that is their primary driver

And they'd all rather pay lower wages. Labour (clue is in the name) should be concerned about what is best for workers, not businesses. What businesses want doesn't align with what employees need. Farmers like paying buttons and then charging their "employees" to live 6 to a shipping container for half their wages but that doesn't mean we should listen to farmers when they say they should be aloowed to import super cheap labour instead of forcing them to pay the actual wage the job should pay. Most businesses want to pay below the minimum wage, no pensions and no sickness/maternity/paternity/leave allowances but they have to comply with the regulations. What they want is irrelevant.