Saving Christmas

[billsykes]

Absolute joke
Lots of white middle englanders with a vested interest in trying to save xmas for themselves.

Makes a mockery of the seriousness of Covid. Or maybe, just maybe - they know something we dont.

I’m in the ’no thanks’ camp

Excellent response

 

[billsykes]

In a nuthsell sir

My 2 lads from London will be with me at xmas

That's nice.

 

[billsykes]

I’d extend the thinking

Tell the kids there will be no Santa and Elves this year because if they die that’s it for ever. So 1 year without pressies.

Good life lesson and takes the hassle out of it all

Absolutely, why should kids have Christmas.

 

[Pog]

Many people aren’t following the rules as they are so it’s going to be futile and a waste of time and energy trying to get them to do it over Christmas.

They don’t have the resources to enforce the rules as it is, so you’ve got no chance over Christmas.

Give people the information they need, make them aware of the risks and let them decide.

 

[Laughing]

Yup, SAGE is an absolute joke. Little virology/immunology input. Staggeringly inept "models", epidemiologists who thought the peak of the virus (a coronavirus) was going to be in June! F**king June! I believed all this back in the spring until I did just a little bit of research when things started to get really weird in the summer (mask mandate, in summer?)

The country has lost its mind. People have been deliberately frightened. Its an absolute disgrace.

Abandoning all previous advice for respiratory epidemics from the WHO (e.g. track and trace - not advised as no evidence of benefit) yet trying to implement a track and trace system by siphoning off BILLIONS of public money. Track and trace a respiratory virus that was circulating before we had a test prepared?! Unreal. Cat..... chasing..... tail.

I think I got called evil on another thread (I will get round to replying to that!) for pointing out that current excess deaths are not massively out of the ordinary for this time of year, they aren't (I'll post elsewhere on Nov numbers). "Cases" were falling before further restrictions were introduced across many cities (even one of my city Labour MPs acknowledged this in correspondence yet they will still vote for more restrictions!). SAGE then pushed out those ludicrous (yes, utterly ludicrous) graphs showing a crazy number of deaths per day that simply was never going to happen. The SAGE data was pushed without challenge or scrutiny.

Pointless mass testing of children in Liverpool (with cases already falling) using a new (apparently fairly useful lateral flow test) when such tests could actually have been used in care homes to allow residents who have been locked away for months to see relatives. I don't understand how more people are not outraged. Clearly some on here are.

View attachment 9182

There have been restrictions put in place (many of which Chris Whitty has explained in public lectures have absolutely no impact against a highly infectious respiratory virus), modelers calling for NPI's which make little (if any) difference over the long term. We have had mathematicians on independent SAGE banging on about cases/deaths doubling every x number of days without any fundamental understanding that such doubling will not just carry on going (like it didn't in the spring) if there is not an endless number of, sadly, susceptible people. There have been "global health" academics harping on about "zero covid" for the UK (it is difficult for me to contain my rage at them)..... the list goes on. What a sorry mess.

Plotting the actual data, not modeling, is always highly informative. The deaths per million follow a very very similar shape and timing for the European countries. Almost as though this is a natural phenomena which passes through a population and, sadly, kills those most susceptible..........................

View attachment 9181

The czech republic did manage to "contain" the virus in spring so I'm sure people will say we could have done the same. If we had shut done the country in Jan/Feb then maybe (but who would have advocated that?). However, look at the Czech's. Once endemic you can't contain it and they have just pushed their deaths into the autumn.

As randy has mentioned elsewhere, you can't "control the virus" yet we have politicians spouting utterly meaningless phrases like "circuit breaker" and "fire break".

We have had epidemics before and will have them again. If we hadn't had it sweep through in spring and it wasn't all over the media the current levels would hardly be noticed in most of the country. For all the gnashing of teeth regarding Sweden they followed the accepted pandemic guidelines after their epidemiologists assessed the data (and dismissed Ferguson's predictions). They kept their economy open to an extent, kept some level of socialising going, didn't madate masks, didn't stick pointless signs everywhere and "queue here" bo**ocks stickers on the floor etc. They informed their citizens and treated them like adults. You really should ask why we (and other western nations) have seemingly thrown in the trash the usual pandemic response which it looked like we were going to carry out at one stage.

We currently seem to have SAGE running the country and not the government. Their advisors (Ferguson, Farrar etc) are all over the media telling us to behave and we may be let out for Christmas. This will continue until either people/business has had enough or SAGE call an end to it.



A quote I read somewhere:

"The governments response to coronavirus is akin to dealing with a fly in the kitchen by burning the house down"

TAD I would agree with a lot of your points, but some of the points you raise don't stack up to scrutiny as far as I can see.

I would take issue with the statement that the WHO said track and trace was pointless. Back in March they (the WHO) said "Countries should find and test every case of coronavirus to stop the pandemic, the World Health Organization has said a day after the UK announced that only the most seriously ill will be tested."

They went on to say : “You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is,” the WHO’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at a briefing on Friday. “Find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of Covid transmission. Every case we find and treat limits the expansion of the disease.”

Now the WHO may have changed that advice since March, but I cannot recall that being the case.

The second bit I would take issue with, and you have used this argument before, is the shape of the graphs being the same all over Europe regardless of the strategy used to contain the spread of the disease. You seem to be using this as an argument that lockdowns have no effect on the disease transmission. If you let the disease run its course you get a very definite shaped curve, however if you lockdown at any point, cases will drop off and produce an identically shaped curve, but the magnitude of the curve will be lower. I believe this is a very poor argument in itself.

The example you give of the Czech Republic, kicking the can down the road, for want of a better term is probably correct, but I am not sure it supports your argument other than to point out they didn't handle coming out of lockdown very well. I don't know what track and trace they had in place, how the populous behaved what the interim regulations were, and so on.

Your points on SAGE are probably correct, I am not convinced they are fit for purpose and some of the graphs they were showing a couple of months ago to show how bad things could get were idiotic.

Ultimately people know that if you reduce contact, you reduce the chance of contracting the disease. That is a given. Whether, when a virus is rampant in society you can actually reduce contact to the extent you do not come into contact with the virus is a moot point and maybe where you should be pitching your arguments.

It's an emotive subject but you shouldn't have been called evil.