Swing of 16.4% from Tories to Labour in Kingswood

[Abel Tasman]

...he's wrong on these numbers.........if that's how politics works Labour, Green, Lib-dem and SNP added together would beat Tory and Reform at these by-elections and at the last election

Presumably his tenuous argument is that Reform really are the Tory Party and indeed I hear a few Tory MPs bleating this morning that the Party needs to lurch further to the right to attract those votes.

 

[LessoftheLip]

In Wellingborough, I feel it was pure arrogance from the Conservative Party to pick Helen Harrison (Peter Bones's partner) as their candidate.

As I understand it Peter Bone threatened to run as an Independent if the Conservative constituency didn't select his partner. Apparently Conservative HQ don't get involved in local candidate selections. I know Labour often get criticised for parachuting in its preferred candidate against the wishes of the CLP but sometimes there needs to be some grown ups present. Take Rochdale for example.

 

[Abel Tasman]

As I understand it Peter Bone threatened to run as an Independent if the Conservative constituency didn't select his partner. Apparently Conservative HQ don't get involved in local candidate selections. I know Labour often get criticised for parachuting in its preferred candidate against the wishes of the CLP but sometimes there needs to be some grown ups present. Take Rochdale for example.

Which if true highlights how weak and stupid the local CCP were in caving into a guy who brought shame to the post.

 

[TheYorkshireTerrier]

Rees-Mog didnt get over 50% of his vote in 2019.

 

[Corcaigh_the_Cat]

I saw that

How did the Greens gerron ?;

Not as well as they should.

Looks like turquoise is the new green, unfortunately.

 

[Steer]

The response by the Tories is laughable and shows that they are completely at sea. Using excuses that Tory voters stayed at home is a joke and implies that they think that this will all change in the future. If you don't vote, then you are not a Tory voter.

Please, for the love of this country, can we have a GE now.

 

[HarryVegas]

Very strong language warning if you're at work but it made me laugh ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758370909763592525

 

[Ziggy]

Tory internal war incoming.

 

[BoroMart]

Mogg is right in Kingswood Mart but that wasn't really the point I was making. I was making the point that Mogg said the Kingswood result highlights where the tories have to do better, i.e. reclaim the reform voters.

He's just right in that instance, but it's kinda pointless if you are adding all teh right leaning people together then you have to add all the left leaning, in which case the left still won. He's also showing cognitivie dissonance about who these reformer voters are. They are largely working class people disenfranchised with the status quo, ill educated ex-lifetime-labour voters, that were swayed to vote Tory by the idea of Brexit, but were never ever traditional Tory voters. They aren't going to regain these people, because they only ever borrowed their vote for one election. It's desperation and tone-deaf ignorance to think they will get these voters back.

It's the tories own fault though, they stoked culture wars, they stoked anti-elitism, they stoked xenophobia, they stoked anti-immigration, they stoked EU-hatred, they stoked the politics of hate. They also enabled Richard Tice to get a foot hold in mainstream politics. The consequence of that is the right is now fragmented into hard-core semi-fascist hate mobs for the ill-educated, and what is currently a fractured tory party but will probably revert to a more 'one nation' party as reform gets a good 10-15% vote share at the next election.

 

[BoroMart]

Tory internal war incoming.

absolutely, and it'll be messy for the next 3 years until they get behind a more moderate Tory and expunge the right wing hate mob. They are going to get so decimated at the next election that they will have to have a reset.

 

[BoroMart]

Presumably his tenuous argument is that Reform really are the Tory Party and indeed I hear a few Tory MPs bleating this morning that the Party needs to lurch further to the right to attract those votes.

the issue they have, is that by doing that they will bleed middle ground tories. It's a tough balancing act to get the knuckledragging fascists and middle england to vote for you. They'd do better to get behind someone that isn't idealogically fascist, but I feel this inner fighting will go on for years. Like the rest of the country they as a party are divided into ideological loons that can't accept Brexit is and always would be a sh"tshow, and sensible, fact based people that realise that it's been incredibly harmful financially and to the nations psyche. That's the problem the tories have more than any party and that genie isn't going back in teh bottle any time soon

 

[Nobby_Barnes]

Not as well as they should.

Looks like turquoise is the new green, unfortunately.

Yeah disappointing tbh
They will all be regretting that when the floods come

 

[Frozen Horse]

I don't see the Tories doing that tbh: they are dependent on the right wing hate mob for a majority.

I note that the Reform polling figures have risen from about 5% to 10-11% over the course of the last 12 months. Guess where those prospective voters are coming from? The question is whether they'll switch back to Tory at the GE or not? I'd guess a chunk will, but almost certainly not enough to make a difference to the outcome.

As for Lord Snooty: he probably was surprised. He's a Truss backer isn't he? He probably expected a bigger stick with which to beat Sunack.

 

[mercury_redstone7]

Mogg is right in Kingswood Mart but that wasn't really the point I was making. I was making the point that Mogg said the Kingswood result highlights where the tories have to do better, i.e. reclaim the reform voters.

Its a good point, there's certainly an issue with Reform that may cut into both parties vote. But today we have began to see there is some traction for Labour. we need to see this democracy work for all, You couldn't get a more useless bunch of politicians than this lot has been since Labour lost power. Its difficult to think we have a countrymen that thought they were worth voting for. The Tory good with money slogan cant ever be justified again.

For some reason I always thought that politicians who were privately educated at the finest universities were competent very bright and could work on the move. Its quite the opposite, saddest part is it took me until I was 62 to realise it. What a **** dum - dum I am.

 

[h_m_boro]

Interesting the increase in votes for Reform.

Wonder if anyone who voted for them actually know any of their policies bar "StOPpiNg tHe BoAts"?

Or is out and out racism the magnet that draws them in?

 

[Ziggy]

absolutely, and it'll be messy for the next 3 years until they get behind a more moderate Tory and expunge the right wing hate mob. They are going to get so decimated at the next election that they will have to have a reset.

I doubt it will ever happen, but there is a point at which at less than 60-70 seats for the Tories…makes it almost impossible for them to function for a party of that size, with their financial commitments.
They will be begging for Proportional Representation

 

[h_m_boro]

Do

Its a good point, there's certainly an issue with Reform that may cut into both parties vote. But today we have began to see there is some traction for Labour. we need to see this democracy work for all, You couldn't get a more useless bunch of politicians than this lot has been since Labour lost power. Its difficult to think we have a countrymen that thought they were worth voting for. The Tory good with money slogan cant ever be justified again.

For some reason I always thought that politicians who were privately educated at the finest universities were competent very bright and could work on the move. Its quite the opposite, saddest part is it took me until I was 62 to realise it. What a **** dum - dum I am.

Don't beat yourself up - for every entitled, privileged Tory ex-public schoolboy/girl there is Lee Anderson and Jonathan Gullis .......

 

[Abel Tasman]

the issue they have, is that by doing that they will bleed middle ground tories. It's a tough balancing act to get the knuckledragging fascists and middle england to vote for you. They'd do better to get behind someone that isn't idealogically fascist, but I feel this inner fighting will go on for years. Like the rest of the country they as a party are divided into ideological loons that can't accept Brexit is and always would be a sh"tshow, and sensible, fact based people that realise that it's been incredibly harmful financially and to the nations psyche. That's the problem the tories have more than any party and that genie isn't going back in teh bottle any time soon

Yes. A great chunk of Tory vote and MPs remain eurosceptic and therefore not sure how they appeal to the middle ground without upsetting the loons and certainly won’t if they lurch further to the right as some of them are demanding to appease that right wing.

 

[Abel Tasman]

Interesting the increase in votes for Reform.

Wonder if anyone who voted for them actually knows any of their policies bar "StOPpiNg tHe BoAts"?

Or is out and out racism the magnet that draws them in?

Old UKIP GB news viewers I suspect.

 

[speckyget]

A concern would be Tice 'pulling a Farage' just ahead of the election so that they only contest Labour held/target seats. The idea that the Tufton St cabal would just blithely wave Labour through into No. 10 just seems far fetched to me.