The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 54,218 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 46,186
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 3.8% to 52,697 per day, following 5.1% decrease yesterday (and 21st decrease in the past 22 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 26.8% lower than one week ago (from 26.9% lower yesterday) and 43.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 42.2% lower yesterday and 25.0% lower 7 days ago)
• 199 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 234 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 6.6% to 155.1 per day, following 6.4% decrease yesterday (and 13th decrease in the past 14 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 28.8% lower than one week ago (from 35.5% lower yesterday) and 40.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 28.1% lower yesterday and 16.7% lower 7 days ago)
 
Randy said:
Omicron a natural vaccine effect.
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I wouldn't say that, not when it's the 4th major strain and we've had to go through all of those (Wild, Alpha, Delta) first, it's like offering someone a coffee after three courses previous, we're already full. Most those who came into contact with Omicron have either had a worse strain previous, been vaccinated multiple times or are very young/ safe.

The vaccines have had 100x more protection than that offered by Omicron "being milder", plus the "milder" stats are skewed by us having ~15% excess deaths in 2020 and the same again in 2021. Seeing as the average "years lost" is over ten years, the sum of those gives us about 30% less deaths/ less vulnerable people to go at this year (and for the next 9 I suppose), ultimately the population is artificially stronger, this is more the reason why we're in -10% excess this year. Effectively the virus has a lot less to go at, due to the damage done previous.

I don't think there's much doubt that Omicron is milder, but extremely difficult to quantify by how much, as all the variables had changed by the time we came to it. It's not been tested on comparable populations. Had we had Omicron in Spring 20, Winter 20/21 etc it would have done a hell of a lot more damage than what we had, due to the transmissibility and there being next to no previous immunity. Being 25% milder doesn't help when 10x more get it, before vaccines, it makes it 7.5x worse.

It is probably handy that Omicron replaced Delta at the time it did mind, in an economical sense anyway.
 
Laughing said:
There is a significant 5th wave going on in hong Kong at the minute but I am not sure if that's being reported in relation to their zero covid policy.
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Depends what you define as significant? Not sure how often they test or how reliable the reporting is, but the below looks ok, and they're quite highly vaccinated anyway. Omicron will break through any barrier, but it breaking through after individual protection has been established isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially when it's unavoidable anyway.

1645088280495.png
 
Andy_W said:
Depends what you define as significant? Not sure how often they test or how reliable the reporting is, but the below looks ok, and they're quite highly vaccinated anyway. Omicron will break through any barrier, but it breaking through after individual protection has been established isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially when it's unavoidable anyway.

View attachment 33890
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That graph isn't at a scale you can easily see what's going on in hong kong. They have a small population. Not sure it's relevant.

They have 95% bed occupancy and we're close to zero covid previously.
It's worth searching out the article
 
Laughing said:
That graph isn't at a scale you can easily see what's going on in hong kong. They have a small population. Not sure it's relevant.

They have 95% bed occupancy and we're close to zero covid previously.
It's worth searching out the article
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That's cases per million, it's meant to be population relative? Only works if the data they release is accurate mind, and it is heavily linked to China of course, and we know how that works.

They're on 76 cases per million people, as a 7 day rolling average, we're on 942, and were up near 3k, and France was over 5k.

Had a look on their dashboard and can't figure out what's going on case wise, but Worldometers have them at around 3k cases per day (3 day Av). they have 5.7m/ 7.4m with one jab, 5m/7.4m with two jabs, and according to their dashboard they have zero in critical care, and are on around 3 deaths per day?

News says they're going to overrun healthcare, but this is caused by them wanting to send every single case to hospital, regardless of them being sick or not, which is clearly not going to work, and completely ludicrous. If we did that we would fill every single bed we have with covid inside three days (and have to kick everyone else out who is in there, and not let anyone in for other ailments). After a week, we would have 200k covid on the grass, the 100k who we kicked out, and the other 100k who would need to be admitted.
 
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Andy_W said:
That's cases per million, it's meant to be population relative? Only works if the data they release is accurate mind, and it is heavily linked to China of course, and we know how that works.

They're on 76 cases per million people, as a 7 day rolling average, we're on 942, and were up near 3k, and France was over 5k.

Had a look on their dashboard and can't figure out what's going on case wise, but Worldometers have them at around 3k cases per day (3 day Av). they have 5.7m/ 7.4m with one jab, 5m/7.4m with two jabs, and according to their dashboard they have zero in critical care, and are on around 3 deaths per day?

News says they're going to overrun healthcare, but this is caused by them wanting to send every single case to hospital, regardless of them being sick or not, which is clearly not going to work, and completely ludicrous. If we did that we would fill every single bed we have with covid inside three days (and have to kick everyone else out who is in there, and not let anyone in for other ailments). After a week, we would have 200k covid on the grass, the 100k who we kicked out, and the other 100k who would need to be admitted.
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Thats interesting Andy. Not sure the article you read, but where a case springs up, the enfoce vaccination on the locals in that area. It's a fairly awful regime.

Do you have a link to the article you read? I ask, because the article I read was light on detail, and certainly didn't mention the item about sending every case into hospital, presumeably to isolate them.

The point stands though that they are experriencing another wave, which was always going to be lower than the westerrn world given their regime.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 51,899 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 54,218
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 4.2% to 48,592 per day, following 3.8% decrease yesterday (and 22nd decrease in the past 23 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 26.6% lower than one week ago (from 26.8% lower yesterday) and 44.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 43.1% lower yesterday and 27.2% lower 7 days ago)
• 183 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 199 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 2.1% to 151.9 per day, following 6.6% decrease yesterday (and 14th decrease in the past 15 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 25.6% lower than one week ago (from 28.8% lower yesterday) and 40.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 40.5% lower yesterday and 22.3% lower 7 days ago)
 
Laughing said:
Thats interesting Andy. Not sure the article you read, but where a case springs up, the enfoce vaccination on the locals in that area. It's a fairly awful regime.

Do you have a link to the article you read? I ask, because the article I read was light on detail, and certainly didn't mention the item about sending every case into hospital, presumeably to isolate them.

The point stands though that they are experriencing another wave, which was always going to be lower than the westerrn world given their regime.
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They're doing some strange things now, when all signs are that they don't really need too. Seems like they're being harder, when they're a lot more covered.

edition.cnn.com

Analysis: Hong Kong is sticking to zero-Covid, no matter what the cost

The Asian financial hub is committed to keeping Covid cases at zero, despite contending with a runaway outbreak.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

Hard to call it a 5th wave when they've had no real waves and this is nothing compared to what the Western world has had.


1645127021349.png
 
Andy_W said:
They're doing some strange things now, when all signs are that they don't really need too. Seems like they're being harder, when they're a lot more covered.

edition.cnn.com

Analysis: Hong Kong is sticking to zero-Covid, no matter what the cost

The Asian financial hub is committed to keeping Covid cases at zero, despite contending with a runaway outbreak.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

Hard to call it a 5th wave when they've had no real waves and this is nothing compared to what the Western world has had.


View attachment 33923
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Cheers Andy, I'll read that later, watching leicester get humbled by Rand at the minute.

I get the point about calling it a wave when they have had so little infection to-date. Mayhap it's just demonstrating how infectious and difficult to contain, omicron actually is.
 
Laughing said:
Cheers Andy, I'll read that later, watching leicester get humbled by Rand at the minute.

I get the point about calling it a wave when they have had so little infection to-date. Mayhap it's just demonstrating how infectious and difficult to contain, omicron actually is.
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Yeah there's no stopping it, and it's easier to counter if that is accepted, especially for places which have given people the opportunity to vaccinate themselves.
 
There seems to be a bit of a resurgence in cases in large parts of central/western Scotland in recent days(reporting 5 days behind).
Not sure what to make of that?
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 47,685 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 51,899
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 3.3% to 46,990 per day, following 4.2% decrease yesterday (and 23rd decrease in the past 24 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 25.0% lower than one week ago (from 26.6% lower yesterday) and 46.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 44.7% lower yesterday and 30.4% lower 7 days ago)
• 158 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 183 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 3.3% to 146.9 per day, following 2.1% decrease yesterday (and 15th decrease in the past 16 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 24.9% lower than one week ago (from 25.6% lower yesterday) and 41.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 40.6% lower yesterday and 25.2% lower 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 38,409 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 31,170
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.0% to 44,180 per day, following 3.1% decrease yesterday (and 26th decrease in the past 27 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 20.5% lower than one week ago (from 22.8% lower yesterday) and 43.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 46.7% lower yesterday and 37.3% lower 7 days ago)
• 15 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 74 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 2.0% to 143.6 per day, following 2.2% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 19.1% lower than one week ago (from 18.2% lower yesterday) and 41.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 40.2% lower yesterday and 32.4% lower 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 41,130 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 38,409
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.6% to 43,458 per day, following 1.0% decrease yesterday (and 27th decrease in the past 28 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 17.5% lower than one week ago (from 20.5% lower yesterday) and 39.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 43.9% lower yesterday and 42.2% lower 7 days ago)
• 205 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 15 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 2.9% to 139.4 per day, following 2.0% decrease yesterday (and 18th decrease in the past 20 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 16.1% lower than one week ago (from 19.1% lower yesterday) and 45.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 41.1% lower yesterday and 28.1% lower 7 days ago)
 
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