Some factual stuff about the now stalled Ukainian counter-offensive. Followed by some interesting takes on what is happening and might happen internally in Russia. He describes Strelkov as an onion ... he's more like one of those Russian dolls. Or a Scooby Doo masked villain.
"About a week ago the highly awaited Ukrainian spring offensive started.
Interestingly the hardest attacks of the offensive happened near Bakhmut on the northern and southern flanks.
Initially the Ukrainians made good headway on both sides pushing the Russians backwards and making the roads safe again.
Not that the roads ever was needed.
A couple of days ago the Russians complained openly about Ukraine supplying Bakhmut through tunnels from Chasiv Yar.
Probably some old mine tunnels, in the end Ukraine confirmed this.
It sort of explains why seemingly Ukraine was not that bothered with the roads being under fire control.
A day after the initial outwards pushes Ukraine attacked on the outer sides of the northern and southern flank, something that really cought the Russians with their pants down.
Among the liberated places was Siversk, the video of the tanks attacking a trench is on the other side of Siversk down towards Bakhmut.
Down in Vuhledar Ukraine attacked hard pushing the Russians back to the lines prior to the Russian offensive here.
At the Zhaporizhzhia line the Ukrainians continued to hammer at Robotyne and Polohyi and slowly advanced towards Tokmak.
Repeated attacks amphibeous attacks and bombardments forced the Russian forces to leave the Kinburn Spit, and renewed attacks happened across the Dnipro into Southern Kherson.
Most of this was done with the 25 Attack Brigade Units that has held the line during the winter, but with 18 new ones out of the 106 attack brigades that Ukraine has formed in Western Ukraine, and with many of them having been trained in the UK, Germany, Poland, Sweden, US, etcetera...
Yes... you read right, the number of new units are 106 heavy brigades, that is 26 divisions, 6 Army groups, or 3 full armies. In amount of troops it is north of 286 000 men and women.
Together with the Units that have held the line that is 450 000 soldiers, and then you have 650 000 border guards, logistics, etcetera troops...
So, right as the offensive got going 42 Attack Brigades was hammering the Russians with more arriving each day, and Russia was buckling under the onslaught already.
The Oncoming Storm
Then Winter came back with a vengeance, a decadal snowstorm hit the East and South and all offensive operations stopped.
As all that snow melts it will turn Ukraine back into mud, and to top that off, 9 out of the next 14 days it will rain...
For now the entire offensive is halted, for how long is anyones guess, but at least for the next 14 days and then some.
What we do know is that Ukraine will restart it as soon as possible, and that there is nothing on this green planet that Russia can do to stop them, there are no reserves, no reinforcements coming, no nothing.
Only old junk is arriving...
On the Ukrainian side it means two to four weeks of more material arriving, more time to blow stuff up with long range artillery and missiles... and a couple of more battle brigades forming.
Russia
Inside Russia Strelkov/Girkin has banded up officially with the other critical influencers and proclaimed that if the government falls, or Russia starts to fall apart, that they will take over.
They have also started to openly act against Prigozhin and the PMC Wagner.
This is a big change in rhetoric from them. Why this change has happened now is beyond anyones guess.
They have even published a sort of video manifesto that is spreading like a wildfire in Russia.
Basically it saying "Do not worry, we are here if things go to ****".
Strelkov has also openly now mentioned the threat from China.
Once more, why Strelkov et Al is getting away with these open attacks on the leadership is beyond anyones guess.
Yes, it is likely that they have support from within the Siloviki (Security Service tecnocrats), but it is unclear how far up the food chain this support goes.
What is apparent though is that both Naryshkin and Patrushev are more often openly talking.
I am starting to worry about us not figuring out what is happening until after the fact.
And when there is a risk that an almost messianic figure like Strelkov can take over Russia like a modern day Jesus Tzar...
So, what can we take away?
The surprising honesty of Strelkov.
Everything he has said has been factual truth as far as we know, or at worst what he perceives as the factual truth.
We have found not a single misconception or lie.
Yes, everything is angled in his direction, and he is not saying everything, but regardless of this.
He is making his entire spiel built upon being correct and truthful, and building a following that way.
Even if it is a spiel, it says quite a bit about his charactar I think.
So, if we look at what he has said about things outside of Russia.
What can we glean?
-Russia can't win a war against NATO.
-Russia will loose the current war, here he points out that it would take putting Russias economy on a complete war footing and conspripting all men to win.... he then went on and stated that this is to late, and that it would no longer give the victory to Russia.
-Using nuclear weapons would bring the end to Russia.
-NATO will not invade Russia.
-If Russia falls China will invade Russia.
Note how what he says relates to the movements of troops towards China, the lack of reinforcements in Ukraine...
I think the above is a signal to the West.
If I take over, help me get out of Ukraine, and I will slam the door in the face of China.
Then we can talk...
I think this might be it, after all he openly laughed at the idea of NATO attacking Russia.
But, I guess time will tell.
Economy
All Russian trade have now stopped, or is done at a loss.
The final nail in the coffin was China and India slaming their doors shut, and them sort of enforcing either openly, or behind the scenes, the same sanctions as the west.
Russia is thus forced to use their only remaining funds, The State Welfare Fund.
Touching that was previously seen as sacrilige.
When it is empty all retirement funds and child payments, as well as other social security payments, will stop.
Currently Russia is burning through 1.6 trillion roubles per month, and the 9 trillion strong fund will be empty mid June.
After that Russia will be forced to start printing money to cover payments.
Currently the rouble is falling at a rate of 10 percent per month against the USD and EUR.
That would increase substantially as soon as they start printing cash out of thin air.
Russians faced with loosing all their savings, and facing starvation as their pensions and so on turn into a fraction of what it is...
Then is when civil unrest will kick in.
An economy back at 1993 levels (Russias poorest moment), never ending burrials, ever increased oppression, starvation, systematic failures of industry, heating, etcetera... Constant bombings and fires of critical infrastructure...
By september or october there will either be revolts in the streets, or someone credible will step in, declare the war over, and promise better times ahead.
Someone with sad Russian eyes, with a dark Russian humour, someone seen as intelligent and intellectual, but at the same time strong, someone known to be honest and telling the truth, someone with a moustache and simple shirts.
Someone opposite of Putin and his ilk, someone like Strelkov.
Suddenly it will be allowed to debate the war and protest against it, and after a little while he will stop the current war.
He will offer NATO a detente by sending 90 percent of the Russian army into the Far East as goodwill gesture of good faith.
Trainload after trainload will then start moving East with trained soldiers, combat veterans, and all their equipment.
The door will slam shut infront of Xi...
A new nuclear deal will be made, where Russia moves their tactical nukes to the Far East, at least most of it.
In Hague the dockets will be filled with handed over Russian war criminals, and informally Strelkov himself will end up dead last of the cases... and will remain there as long as he play ball.
Sanctions will slowly be lifted...
Gas will freely be delivered to Ukraine together with raw materials to rebuild as part of restitution...
A decade into the future Oleg Ivanovich Rudinov will walk down the aisle of the Annunciation Cathedral and be Crowned Ivan II of All Russias to everyones surprise, well... except for those who listened to him.
Now, who the blast is Oleg Rudinov?
None other than Strelkov, it is his real name.
Turns out he was born in St Petersburg and not in Moscow as everyone believed.
But, being an onion, I suspect there may be more layers to peel away.
For now, the deepest layer we have found is named Oleg Rudinov."
news.sky.com
