I don't know how many more of these there will be.
Latest under OPSEC rules.
"
Disclaimer: Most of what I am reporting is either two days old, or has been confirmed via Russian sources.
Disclaimer 2: Russians are describing fabulours victories, and I think I have seen claims of up to 600 Leopard 2s being blown up...
Truth, 2 Leopard 1s was blown up, and about 5 old Soviet tanks.
Anyway, losses are to be expected.
Bilhorod
We are now at day 9 of the Battle for Shebekino.
Russia is slowly getting bit of order in their own ranks, and have started to slowly push the FRL backwards towards Ukraine.
I expect them to soon step back into Ukraine to let the Ukrainian artillery deal with the Russian Army.
Obviously they will then after a few days run across the border at a new place and cause more massive havoc.
Bakhmut
It is obviously not going well for Russia here, they are slowly pushed back each day to the North, and Ukraine has made significant gains taking key positions, and are now in control of the high ground (and have taken several settlements).
They are also now driving a wedge in from the North following the road though the entire pincer towards Bakhmut, and seem also to slowly be moving towards Soledar (but this is tentative).
On the south they have taken Klichi'ivka after first taking it into a pocket.
Many prisoners, and many improved Russians was had as they ran out of ammo.
Taking the high ground on the North, and the fall of the Klichi'ivka Fortress is putting a lot of pressure on Bakhmut and the Russian soldiers.
But, now Russia is in trouble, because there are no available troops to move there to hold the crumbling lines.
It is here good to remember that this is done with local troops, and no new assault brigades.
The Pillow
Imagine a large squishy pillow, perfect for an adult pillow fight.
Now imagine being hit over the chest with it...
There is no point that truly hurts, but it is so big that it will make you go "oof" and stumble backwards.
This is an apt metaphor for what Ukraine has done with the Russian defence line.
But, obviously this pillow is filled with steel and lead.
Anyway, by hitting almost all the way from Vuhledar to Kakhovka with this massive pillow the Russian has said Oof and stumbled backwards.
At 6 points Ukrainians concentrated slightly larger forces, and just pushed through the first defence line.
Each such defence line is made up of 3 sub-lines, a minefield and a simple trench (often called zero-line), then about 100 meters back you have the dragons teeth, then another minefield and a more extensive trench-network.
At those 6 places all that defence line has been punched through, and at a couple of more places just from there being almost no Russians when they scouted the places.
At 3 places they have punched out the second such system.
At Vuhledar they have moved to Novotroit'ske and there is a battle running there now, if that falls Ukraine has direct contol of the H20 road that is the main road between Donetsk City and Mariupol.
Here Ukraine is pushing in more heavy reinforcements now.
The second place is Neskuchne where they are slowly liberating villages.
And the third is the road to Robotyne where the Russians report fighting at the outskirts now of Robotyne on the Orikhiv to Tokmak Road. This last rush was made by a tank fist, but that moved back after pushing down, leaving infantry to do the storming.
There is a fourth spot, but I can't talk about that.
Russia has 3 full brigades held back in the rear, those are all the tactical reserves that they have.
Those are unlike all other units at full-strength, and are supposed to be the last good ones that Russia has.
They are also equiped with the last of the good stuff.
The Ukrainian offensive are intended to pull out one of those towards the breach, and then annihilate it with a heavy mech brigade or two.
So far the Russians have not stepped up to the plate, they know that they will step into a trap, and they are better off waiting for Ukraine to over-extend.
Problem for Russia is that The Pillow is pushing almost everything back.
How? If you have large gaping holes down your nice line the troops in between will be forced to fall back or be captured...
That is why Ukraine is punching through at so many equidistant places, it collapses the entire line, one at a time.
Now all Russians have fallen back or been captured/improved at the first line, same will soon happen at the second line.
Soon the Russian will be forced to use those 3 brigades, or risking them being captured.
And once again Russia has no reserves to use.
Final item
On Monday is the start for the largest air excercise in NATO history, but already hundreds of planes are galumphing around.
As an air exercise this is larger than the amassing of troops Russia made prior to the invasion, just to put it into perspective.
I will let everyone draw their own conclusions, if there are even any to be drawn."
www.theguardian.com
